Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is that individuals selling residential properties held for more than two years will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT), while those selling properties held for less than two years will be subject to a full VAT rate of 3% [1][3] - The policy applies specifically to individuals and does not include general taxpayers among individual businesses [3] - This new policy replaces a previous regulation effective from January 1, 2026, which will cease to be in effect [3] Group 2 - The announcement clarifies that individuals who sell properties purchased less than two years ago will need to pay VAT at a rate of 3% [3] - For properties held for two years or more, individuals will not incur any VAT upon sale [3] - The announcement also addresses transitional provisions for VAT that has not yet been declared or paid before January 1, 2026, allowing compliance with the new regulations [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a significant characteristic of "strong technology, stable cycles," with overall performance being differentiated [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12 points, remaining flat compared to the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen market was more active, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.63% [1] - The STAR 50 Index performed notably well, with a rise of 1.01% and increased trading volume, indicating a clear preference for the technology innovation sector [1] - The overall market turnover remained active at 21,426 billion, reflecting differing risk preferences among investors [1] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector led the market with a strong performance, rising by 2.63%, followed by cyclical and manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, all of which saw gains exceeding 1.3% [1] - In contrast, sectors like retail and real estate experienced noticeable adjustments [1] Investor Behavior - The market phenomenon reflects common psychological behaviors among investors, often leading to the "buy high, sell low" cycle due to panic selling during short-term downturns and chasing prices during bullish trends [2] - This behavior is rooted in cognitive biases rather than information asymmetry, creating opportunities for rational investors to achieve long-term excess returns [2] Psychological Traps - The concept of "short-term myopia" is highlighted, where investors overreact to short-term performance and news while neglecting the long-term cash flow generation ability of companies [3] - Another related trap is "linear extrapolation," where trends are assumed to continue indefinitely, leading to extreme market sentiments during bull and bear markets [3] Value Investment Philosophy - Value investment provides a framework to help investors recognize and resist inherent psychological tendencies, focusing on long-term business models and economic value [4] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a "margin of safety" by purchasing stocks significantly below their estimated intrinsic value to account for future uncertainties and potential errors in judgment [4][5] Long-term Investment Perspective - The ultimate goal of investing is not just financial analysis but also a long-term journey of self-discipline against human weaknesses [5] - Long-term returns will reward those who can overcome instinctual impulses and maintain vigilance during market extremes [6] - Ordinary investors can cultivate this "foresight" through systematic decision-making processes, maintaining clear buy/sell disciplines, and regularly reviewing investment decisions to identify cognitive biases [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillates with a daily decline of 0.10%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals are relatively weak, and the steel price in the off - season continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillates weakly with a daily decline of 0.33%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, which improves the supply - demand pattern and supports the price. However, the demand toughness is questionable, and the inventory level is high. The upward driving force is expected to be weak. The subsequent trend will mainly continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillates at a high level with a daily decline of 0.44%, with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, benefiting from the spot structural contradiction and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, iron ore runs strongly at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Shanghai's first publicly disclosed residential land acquisition: Lingang Holdings had a plot of land repurchased by the land reserve center for 2.625 billion yuan. The land area is about 78,700 square meters, and the above - ground floor area is 188,800 square meters [7]. - In 2026, the "national subsidy" for the household appliance industry will continue, and the industry will enter a new cycle of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. The new round of subsidy policy is expected to promote market consumption structure upgrading and the transformation of industries such as household appliances and automobiles to be green, intelligent, and high - end [8]. - South Korea extended the term of the provisional anti - dumping duty on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan by 5 months, from September 23, 2025, to June 22, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Location | Specification | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | Shanghai | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,270 | 0 | | Rebar | Tianjin | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,170 | 0 | | Rebar | National Average | HRB400E, 20mm | 3,326 | 1 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Shanghai | 4.75mm | 3,280 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tianjin | 4.75mm | 3,190 | 10 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | National Average | 4.75mm | 3,294 | - 1 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | Q235 | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap | - | ≥6mm | 2,080 | - 10 | | PB Powder | Shandong Port | - | 794 | - 5 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate | - | Wet - basis | 782 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | - | 8.80 | - 0.10 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | - | 23.28 | - 0.15 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | - | 107.30 | 0.15 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | - | 108.85 | 1.00 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | - | 10 | 0 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | - | 1,190 | 10 | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,134 | - 0.10 | 3,148 | 3,128 | 635,547 | - 415,599 | 1,560,806 | 30,014 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,282 | - 0.33 | 3,298 | 3,278 | 311,439 | - 200,543 | 1,283,319 | 7,022 | | Iron Ore | - | 789.0 | - 0.44 | 800.0 | 786.5 | 297,023 | - 164,905 | 613,601 | - 16,080 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: It includes the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: It includes the inventory of 45 ports in China, its seasonal changes, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: It includes the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand are weakly stable. The supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level, providing support for the steel price, but the positive effect is weakening. The demand continues to be weak and will seasonally decline, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is good but the toughness is questionable. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The port inventory is rising. The demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [38].

中资金融股方面，中国银行涨1.13%，收报4.49港元；建设银行涨1.31%，收报7.72港元；工商银行涨 0.64%，收报6.27港元；中国平安跌0.68%，收报65.95港元；中国人寿跌0.64%，收报27.94港元。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份涨1.96%，收报4.68港元；中国石油股份涨2.42%，收报8.46港元； 中国海洋石油涨3.97%，收报21.46港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股涨0.59%，收报600港元；香港交易所涨0.1%，收报408.6港元；中国移动涨 0.37%，收报82.1港元；汇丰控股涨0.9%，收报123港元。 香港本地股方面，长实集团涨0.2%，收报39.62港元；新鸿基地产涨0.26%，收报95.15港元；恒基地产 跌0.35%，收报28.36港元。 新华社香港12月30日电 香港恒生指数30日涨219.37点，涨幅0.86%，收报25854.6点。全日主板成交 1997.69亿港元。 国企指数涨99.31点，收报8991.02点，涨幅1.12%。恒生科技指数涨95.37点，收报5578.38点，涨幅 1.74%。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Yuexiu Property (00123), announced a financing agreement with a bank, where the bank will provide a term loan of HKD 220 million [1] - The loan term is set for 364 days from the date of the first drawdown [1]

英镑/美元 英镑昨日震荡盘整，日线小幅收涨，现汇价交投于1.3500附近。除空头回补对汇价构成了一定的支撑 外，美元指数在疲软经济数据和美联储降息预期挥之不去的打压下走软对英镑构成了一定的支撑。此 外，对英国央行降息接近尾声的预期也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3600附近的压力情况，下 方支撑在1.3400附近。 责任编辑：陈平 12月30日，根据全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周一公布的数据，11月美国成屋待完成销售（Pending Home Sales）指数环比上升3.3%至79.2，创下2023年2月以来新高，升幅明显高于经济学家普遍预期。 该指数衡量的是已签署购房合同但尚未完成交割的房屋数量。媒体对经济学家的调查显示，本次涨幅仅 低于一项预测，表明市场回暖具有一定广泛性。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示，"购房 者动能正在增强"，主要得益于负担能力改善以及可选择房源较去年增多。数据显示，二手房签约量已 连续四个月上升，这一连涨周期与新冠疫情期间楼市火热阶段的表现相当。 另外，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联储主席人选，但并不急于宣布。同 时特朗普还表 ...

Consumption - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption continued to decline, with automotive consumption down 8.3% and home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year[12] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a gradual release of service consumption potential[14] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[23] - Real estate development investment fell by 31.4% year-on-year in November, a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month's 23.2%[23] - Equipment purchase investment showed a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%[32] - Exports to the EU saw a significant recovery with a growth rate of 14.8%, while exports to the US decreased by 28.6%[32] - Imports rose slightly by 1.9% year-on-year, with notable increases in the import of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment[34]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has undergone a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and long-term high-return industries with mismatched valuations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current A-share market is experiencing active trading volumes and turnover rates, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, presenting both opportunities and risks. Some stocks are becoming expensive, while others, particularly in real estate and domestic demand, remain undervalued [3]. - The investment strategy for equities should focus on safety margins and certainty, avoiding blind speculation on volatility. The U.S. economy is not performing well, and potential monetary easing could occur in response to the upcoming mid-term elections, which may influence domestic fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Four key investment opportunities for 2026 are highlighted: 1. Long-term focus on globally competitive manufacturing leaders, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery. Observations from Southeast Asia indicate a significant gap in infrastructure and supply chains compared to China, reinforcing confidence in China's manufacturing competitiveness [5]. 2. Industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry, are expected to enhance their global market positions and profitability [5]. 3. Sectors with low valuations and potential for substantial fundamental changes, such as chemicals, are noted for their past performance shifts, similar to coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals in previous years [6]. 4. Long-term high-return industries with severe valuation mismatches, including airport and airline services, insurance, and non-liquor food sectors, are highlighted for their high return on equity (ROE) despite low stock attention [6]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include persistent inflation and sector-specific risks. The undervaluation of the RMB may pressure export industries, and inflation could pose significant risks to the stock market in the latter half of the year. Additionally, long-term risks associated with AI, including its impact on labor and technological competition, warrant attention [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market, represented by the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indices, has shown significant growth in 2025, with the TOPIX closing at 3408.97 points, surpassing its previous high in 1989, and the Nikkei 225 reaching 50339.48 points, marking a new annual high for the second consecutive year. Both indices have recorded substantial year-to-date gains of 22% and 26% respectively, indicating a robust recovery and investor interest in Japanese equities [1][4]. Group 1 - The TOPIX index experienced a notable rebound after a sharp decline in April due to trade war concerns, driven by improved corporate earnings, government fiscal stimulus, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4]. - The interest in Japanese stocks has expanded to include small-cap stocks, with mid-cap and small-cap segments of the TOPIX rising by 27% and 26% respectively, outperforming large-cap stocks which gained 21% since 2022 [4]. - The chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management highlighted that the new high for the TOPIX indicates an expanding buying base in the Japanese stock market, with a trend of valuation recovery across various sectors [4]. Group 2 - Key drivers of the 2025 market growth include companies like Advantest and SoftBank Group, with Advantest's market capitalization surpassing 10 trillion yen and a year-to-date increase of approximately 114%, benefiting from sustained AI spending [5]. - SoftBank Group has also seen its stock price rise over 90% this year, as its investments in OpenAI have positioned it as a critical indicator of market confidence in the non-public company [6]. - Despite the Nikkei 225's long-term outperformance, the recent resilience of the TOPIX suggests it may outperform the Nikkei 225 in 2026, driven by planned revisions to corporate governance guidelines that encourage companies to utilize cash and improve price-to-book ratios [6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index recorded gains, with total trading volume increasing to 2.16 trillion yuan [1][5] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve next year, influenced by political factors such as the U.S. midterm elections and the appointment of a new Fed chair [1][8] - China's export scale and trade surplus have reached historical highs this year, indicating resilience in export structure and direction, with expectations for continued strong performance in exports next year amid improving Sino-U.S. trade relations [1][8] Digital Currency Developments - The People's Bank of China has introduced a digital yuan action plan, with a new framework set to launch on January 1, 2026, transitioning from a cash-based to a deposit currency model [2][9] - This upgrade is expected to create a win-win situation for businesses and individuals, providing interest income and a wider range of financial products, while also incentivizing commercial banks [2][9] Tariff Adjustments - The State Council's tariff adjustment plan for 2026 will implement lower temporary import tariffs on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the linkage between domestic and international markets [2][10] - The plan focuses on high-quality development and open markets, reducing tariffs on key components and advanced materials, and dynamically adjusting tariff structures to support industrial development [10] Agricultural Policy - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the importance of agricultural modernization and set key tasks for 2026, including enhancing grain production and improving agricultural policies to stabilize prices and increase farmers' income [4][11] - The conference aims to strengthen agricultural technology and equipment, which could lead to long-term investment opportunities in the agricultural sector and stimulate county-level consumption [4][11] Market Performance - On December 30, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3965.12 points (down 0.004%), Shenzhen Component at 13604.07 points (up 0.49%), and ChiNext Index at 3242.90 points (up 0.63%) [5][12] - The oil and petrochemical, automotive, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw the highest gains, while retail, real estate, and public utilities experienced the largest declines [5][13] Capital Tracking - The market's trading volume reached 21,617.04 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 25,517.34 billion yuan [6][14]