Group 1: Market Overview - The current market sentiment emphasizes the need for a strategic approach that respects market dynamics while maintaining a clear focus on trading signals and risk management [1] - The gold market is experiencing strong upward momentum, with spot gold rebounding to $5094.54 per ounce, marking a nearly 1.7% increase and maintaining a positive trend for seven consecutive trading days [2] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. trade policy uncertainties, is driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a defined short-term upward channel, with support at approximately $4971.48 and resistance at $5156.89 [4] - Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term overbought condition, with the RSI at 70.84, indicating that bullish momentum may face some pressure [4] - The overall technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on potential price movements around key resistance and support levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are experiencing a pullback, trading around $60.50 per barrel, following a previous day’s decline of over 0.50% [7] - Supply uncertainties, particularly due to winter storms affecting U.S. production, are providing some support for oil prices despite the recent technical corrections [7] - The oil market is currently balancing between fundamental support and expectations of supply recovery, with a cautious outlook on sustained tight supply conditions [8]

册货有限公司 中东库存持续回升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 Kp ler数据显示: 1月25日当周，全球陆地及浮仓库存变动较小,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、俄罗斯、中东库存回升,其中中东库存开年以来自底部持续回升,印度、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 -- 2024 手段 千瓶 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 3450000 120000 34000000 90000 3350000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+学仓展油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千橙 千種 3800000 4900000 0000000 3700000 47 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - **New Energy - Related Materials**: - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - **Building Materials and Fuels**: - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - **Asphalt**: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].

金融期货早评 宏观：美日联手干预汇率 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普威胁将韩国商品的关税提高至 25%，理由是他所称的该国 立法机构未能将两国去年达成的贸易协议编纂成法。2）中国人民银行召开 2026 年宏观审 慎工作会议。3）日本首相高市早苗：如果执政联盟在众议院选举中无法获得多数席位，我 将立即辞职。4）欧盟将于 2027 年 1 月全面禁止进口俄液化天然气，同年 9 月底全面禁止 进口俄管道天然气。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】人民币方面，央行邹澜明确以香港为离岸核心枢纽，通过扩容离 岸资产供给、翻倍香港人民币流动性安排完善金融生态，这一布局适配人民币从贸易结算 向投资储备的国际化升级，既解决外资人民币资产配置需求，也能为 A 股引入长期资金， 对接国内科技产业的估值与发展需求。日元的困境远超汇率层面，纽约联储的询价动作与 日本官员的干预表态虽短期拉动日元反弹，但美日利差、结构性资本外流仍在，叠加首相 高市早苗将汇率与大选绑定的政治风险，反弹缺乏基本面支撑。更关键的是，其削减消费 税的言论引发市场对财政纪律松弛的担忧，直接导致日债长端利率攀升、收益率曲线熊市 走陡，彻底颠覆全球固收市场逻辑，债券从避险工具变为 ...

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the long - term policy supports the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and its rhythm mainly depends on the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - For precious metals, the rise in gold and silver prices has a solid macro - drive, but short - term callback risks should be noted [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper may be range - bound, aluminum is expected to be strong and range - bound, and zinc is in the process of catching up in the sector [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and iron ore prices will oscillate in the short term [30][32]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, rubber may fall, and crude oil has a bottom support in the medium - to - long term [55][57]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different trends. For example, the short - term decline of live pigs is limited, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [79][85]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption in 2026. Guoxing Aerospace deployed Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 to the "Star Computing" project. The central bank will prevent financial risks. Zijin Mining plans to acquire 100% of United Gold [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce will expand the opening of the service industry. The Japanese prime minister is concerned about fiscal sustainability. The central bank conducted 1505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 78 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose and then fell. Trump's statement on Greenland affected the US - Europe relationship and the US dollar credit. US economic data and market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts were released [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - term callback risks and temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices may be range - bound in the short term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and rose. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore inventory increased, and zinc smelting profit improved slightly [14][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are in the process of catching up in the sector [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ore inventory increased, and lead ingot social inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose [18]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose and then fell. SHFE inventory increased, and supply and demand were in a stalemate [20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices fell. The contract total position decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: There is a potential callback risk, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The position decreased, and the inventory increased [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. The inventory decreased, and the supply was tight [24]. - **Strategy**: The price center is expected to move up, but pay attention to callback risks [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillated slightly. The position decreased, and the inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong and range - bound [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory of rebar began to accumulate slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [31][32]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mill replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices rose slightly, and coke prices fell slightly. The supply of coking coal became looser, and the inventory of downstream enterprises was close to last year's level [33][36]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be range - bound and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass inventory increased slightly, and soda ash inventory decreased [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The supply of manganese silicon was loose, and the supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon was basically balanced [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the direction of the black sector and cost - push factors [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices rose. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter [45][49]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose, and natural rubber fell. The reasons for the rise of butadiene rubber include macro - capital allocation and cost increase [51]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bearish strategy and trade short - term on the disk [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. European refined oil inventories changed [56]. - **Strategy**: Oil prices have a bottom support in the medium - to - long term, and it is cost - effective to go long near the shale oil break - even point [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The valuation is low, and the pattern is expected to improve [58][59]. - **Strategy**: It is feasible to go long on dips [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish [60][61]. - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral and high, and the inventory situation is different [62]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [64]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply load is high, and the inventory is accumulating [67]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production, and the valuation needs to be compressed [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the risk of processing fee callback and the opportunity to go long on dips after the Spring Festival [70]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls [71]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the overhaul season. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The supply has no new capacity in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in the off - season [73]. - **Strategy**: The valuation has room to decline, and the price may be supported [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally oscillating [75]. - **Strategy**: The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices mostly fell. The supply pressure in the first half of the year is large, and there is an inventory carry - over expectation [78]. - **Strategy**: There may be short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and pay attention to the support at the lower level [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is about to be realized [80]. - **Strategy**: Near - term contracts may oscillate, and pay attention to the selling pressure after the rebound [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices rose slightly. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal decreased [82][85]. - **Strategy**: Protein meal prices may be bottoming out [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices rose. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased [86][87]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the callback and then try to go long [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated. The production in Brazil and India increased, and the domestic import increased [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and temporarily wait and see for the domestic market [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The domestic import increased, and the inventory was at a high level [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices have room to rise in the medium - to - long term. Wait for the callback and then go long [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating upward, and slightly closing higher on Monday. The price center of the contract moved slightly above the 16,230 yuan/ton level during the session, and the price closed slightly up 0.43% to 16,230 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 70 yuan/ton. The overall strength of the energy - chemical sector boosted the Shanghai rubber futures into a bullish atmosphere, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing significantly higher on Monday. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,358 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,300 yuan/ton, and closed significantly up 3.39% to 2,347 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 13 yuan/ton. As geopolitical risks re - emerged, methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating upward, and closing significantly higher on Monday. The futures price rose to a maximum of 459.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 444.0 yuan/barrel, and closed significantly up 4.07% to 457.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East re - emerged, the premium of crude oil was re - increased, and the short - term oil price maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' foreign trade orders supported a slight increase in device production scheduling, while most other enterprises maintained stable production scheduling. The full - steel tire shipment pressure increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly down. Currently in the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking stage, most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production scheduling to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. The production and sales reached a new high, and the production and sales scale remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. Cumulatively, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol start - up rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.23%. In the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde start - up rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. For dimethyl ether, the start - up rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid start - up rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.58%. The MTBE start - up rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant increase of 14.386 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.478 million barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 806,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery start - up rate was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,100 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,230 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | +53 yuan/ton | 2,347 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 457.3 yuan/barrel | +15.4 yuan/barrel | - 37.1 yuan/barrel | - 15.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire start - up rate trend, and semi - steel tire start - up rate trend [15][16][18][22][24][26]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][43][45][47][49].

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Group 1: Oil and Related Products - The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran, increasing concerns about Middle East crude supply disruptions. The Tengiz oil field's extended shutdown and US cold wave also affected the market. Despite a recent price rebound, the high inventory pressure in Q1 2026 may limit the price increase [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil followed crude oil in a callback due to the end of cold - wave speculation and EIA's unexpected inventory build - up. High - sulfur fuel oil remained strong, supported by geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of Asian spot spreads [22]. - Kpler data shows sufficient Venezuelan crude arrivals in January, but a significant reduction in shipments since January may lead to supply shortages in February and subsequent months. Cost support and weak terminal demand suggest a short - term bullish but volatile outlook for asphalt [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks have raised the price center of precious metals. However, after gold and silver broke through key price levels, there may be short - term fluctuations due to profit - taking and overbought technical indicators. It is advisable to wait for a stable period before re - entering the market [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices were pushed up by the trading sentiment of precious metals and a weak US dollar. Supply - side factors such as strikes in Chilean small mines and roadblocks affecting large mines are being monitored [4]. - Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. Geopolitical factors caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the price direction of gold and silver after breaking through key levels [5]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton in the short term. There is an opportunity for short - selling at the 25,000 yuan/ton level due to the expected supply surplus [8]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The production of recycled lead is restricted by high costs and low prices, and environmental protection policies may affect future production [9]. - Nickel prices rose significantly with active trading. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream due to high prices. Short - term sentiment is positive, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Tin prices continued to rise, driven by investment funds and the expected long - term demand from AI - related investments [11]. Group 4: Industrial Metals and Alloys - Cast aluminum alloy prices follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The market is inactive, and the supply surplus is difficult to change. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6]. - Alumina production capacity is still high, and the supply surplus persists. With falling ore prices, the cost has decreased, but the price is under pressure, and the upside of the futures price is limited [7]. - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to be affected if major enterprises cut production. Demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 9,000 yuan/ton level [14]. Group 5: Steel and Iron - related Products - Steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand decreased slightly, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Hot - rolled coil demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline [15]. - Iron ore prices oscillated last week. Global shipments decreased seasonally but remained high year - on - year. Domestic port inventory increased significantly. Demand is weak, but there is still an expectation of winter stockpiling [16]. - Coke prices rebounded. The first price increase was postponed, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate in a range [17]. - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Production increased slightly, inventory increased, and winter stockpiling demand continued. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [18]. - Manganese ore prices increased slightly. There are structural problems in port inventory. Silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [19]. - Silicon - iron prices increased slightly. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. Supply decreased significantly, inventory decreased slightly. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [20]. Group 6: Chemical Products - Polycrystalline silicon's overseas orders increased, but the spot trading is weak. The futures price may face pressure in the future, waiting for the official guidance from the exchange [13]. - Urea prices were stable over the weekend. Downstream demand increased, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to - long term [24]. - Methanol prices fluctuated due to geopolitical factors. Overseas production is low, and domestic port inventory is high. However, the expected reduction in imports in Q1 provides support, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [25]. - Pure benzene's upward momentum weakened. Supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, and slow inventory reduction is expected in the long term [26]. - Styrene prices increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices may limit the upside. Supply - demand competition may intensify [27]. - Propylene supply has no obvious pressure, and downstream demand is weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand is weakening. Polypropylene supply pressure is not large, but demand is weak [28]. - PVC prices are strong. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased. There is a possibility of capacity reduction and increased exports this year. Caustic soda prices are oscillating, with high inventory and high production. The profit of chlor - alkali integration may continue to be compressed [29]. - PX and PTA prices increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, there may be opportunities for long - positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads, subject to downstream demand [30]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, and polyester load is expected to decline. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In Q2, supply - demand conditions may improve, but the long - term price is under pressure [31]. - Short - fiber production is high, and inventory is low. Downstream orders are weak, but sales increased due to raw material price increases. Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins improved slightly. Long - term capacity pressure remains [32]. Group 7: Building Materials - Glass inventory increased slightly, and there is a risk of further accumulation during the downstream holiday season. Production is currently unprofitable, and the price may fluctuate with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes [33]. - Soda ash inventory decreased slightly but remains under pressure. Some enterprises cut production. The short - term price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and a short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended in the long term [34]. Group 8: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices oscillated. South American soybean harvest is affected by weather, and Chinese soybean purchases are progressing. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian harvest and potential imports from Canada [35]. - Palm oil and soybean oil prices are strong. US biomass diesel policies are favorable, and the supply - demand situation in Indonesia and Malaysia needs to be monitored [36]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed supply in Canada is sufficient but exports are weak. The supply of rapeseed oil may be slightly tighter than that of rapeseed meal [37]. - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to policy and spot market guidance [38]. - Corn prices are relatively strong due to reduced available supply and pre - holiday restocking demand. Future price trends depend on the sales progress in Northeast China and auction results [39]. - Pig prices are expected to be strong before the Spring Festival but weak after the holiday. The industry still needs to reduce production capacity, but the current price recovery may slow down this process [40]. - Egg prices are strong due to pre - festival stocking and reduced supply. In the long - term, the fundamental situation is improving, and a long - position strategy on price dips is recommended [41]. - Cotton prices are oscillating. US cotton exports increased significantly. Domestic cotton inventory is high, but demand is stable. The impact of the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area is uncertain [42]. - Sugar prices are oscillating. Indian sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thai production is slow. In China, the focus is on the expected difference in production. The short - term price faces pressure [43]. - Apple prices are oscillating. Cold - storage sales increased for the Spring Festival, but poor fruit quality and high prices may affect inventory reduction [44]. - Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, demand has increased slightly, and low inventory provides some support. Temporarily hold off on trading [45]. - Pulp prices are oscillating. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing for three consecutive weeks. Paper mills' purchases are mainly for immediate needs. Temporarily hold off on trading [46]. Group 9: Financial Products - A - share indexes rose, and futures contracts showed different trends. The market is concerned about the continuity of US dollar liquidity repair and the impact of the Greenland conflict on risk appetite. A - shares are expected to shift from rapid upward movement to a strong - oscillating trend [47]. - Bond prices were strong last week. In the short - term, the yield of medium - to - long - term bonds is likely to oscillate, and the short - term yield may continue to decline due to loose liquidity. There are opportunities for steepening the yield curve and flattening the ultra - steep spread [48]. Group 10: Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The "weak reality" logic suppressed the price, while CMA CGM's suspension of resuming flights provided short - term support. The market is expected to be weak - oscillating in the future, and the key factors for near - term and far - term contracts are different [21].