美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strongly bullish", "bullish with fluctuations", "sideways", "bearish with fluctuations", and "strongly bearish" [4][277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel - Iran conflict, have intensified, leading to increased volatility in oil prices and a bullish trend in the energy and chemical sector. Chemical products are experiencing a catch - up rally due to the persistent strength of crude oil prices [2][3]. - The supply of some chemical products such as methanol and urea has been affected by the Israel - Iran conflict. The polyester chain's raw material PTA has seen a rapid increase in basis, and the market is expected to be dominated by long - short configurations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to greater price volatility. API data shows a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but the gasoline drawdown was relatively small. The IEA monthly report has lowered the annual demand growth forecast and raised the supply forecast. Short - term, Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate price fluctuations [8]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is oscillating, and asphalt futures prices are also oscillating. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, which will put pressure on the asphalt crack spread. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating at a high level. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock has decreased significantly. Although there is some support from Egypt's procurement, the overall supply - demand situation is bearish [10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13][14]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is oscillating with a bullish bias. Iranian methanol supply disruptions can significantly affect China's methanol prices [25]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a bullish trend in the futures market. Although the current supply is high, the start of domestic and foreign demand is imminent [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Future arrivals are still limited, and EG will continue to be in a bullish pattern [19]. - **PX**: The supply - demand support has weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to crude oil trends. The supply capacity of Asian PX is steadily increasing, and the support effect of the domestic PX supply - demand fundamentals is slowing down [16]. - **PTA**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it will follow crude oil in the short term. The overall performance of PTA is still good, but the polyester production cut pressure may form a negative feedback [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: It will continue to oscillate bullishly following its raw materials. The PF fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [20][21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The industry is stable, and the downside space of bottle chip processing fees is limited. Bottle chip enterprises have announced maintenance plans, indicating that the current processing fees cannot be sustained [21][23]. - **PP**: With the uncertainty of Middle East disturbances, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [30]. - **Plastic**: It will fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The current fundamentals are still under pressure, and the downstream demand is cautious [29]. - **Styrene**: As crude oil prices have declined, styrene is in a weak consolidation phase. The future rebound drive is not sustainable, and both supply and demand are bearish [17]. - **PVC**: The dynamic cost has increased, and PVC is oscillating. Although the supply - demand outlook is bearish, the cost center has shifted upward [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, it is in a bearish trend. In June, the supply and demand were both weak, and in July, supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of SC is 5, with a change of - 6 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 156, with a change of 23, and the number of warehouse receipts is 94,510 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 308, with a change of 3 [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 17 日 橡胶甲醇原油 利多因素消化 能化震荡整理 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 13870 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.29%至 13870 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 845 元/吨。东南亚和国内天胶产区处在全面开割状态，叠加中泰磋商天胶 进口零关税。随着中美两国首脑互通电话，宏观预期暂时好转。在地 缘风险增加的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡企 稳的走势。 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2466 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2397 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0 ...

Group 1 - The total import and export value of Weifang City reached 153.94 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 5.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Exports amounted to 104.25 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while imports were 49.69 billion yuan, increasing by 5.7% [1] - Private enterprises accounted for over 80% of the total import and export value, with foreign investment and state-owned enterprises also experiencing double-digit growth [1] Group 2 - The export of electromechanical products accounted for nearly half of the total exports, with a value of 50.03 billion yuan, growing by 11.4% [2] - Key products such as diesel engines and agricultural machinery saw significant growth, with exports of 1.74 billion yuan and 1.66 billion yuan, respectively, increasing by 36.3% and 27.8% [2] - The import of crude oil and electromechanical products also grew rapidly, with crude oil imports reaching 23.53 billion yuan, up by 28.1% [2]

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

华安证券指出，伊以冲突再次爆发并不断加剧，中东地缘政治风险上升，短期内带动避险黄金、原油 价格上涨。从近几年的历史复盘经验来看，剧烈冲突的地缘政治事件仅仅是黄金价格短期上涨的催化 剂，不会对金价形成中长期影响。主导黄金价格的因素需要回归到实际利率和全球不确定性分析框架 中，从这个角度中长期看，继续看多黄金价格上涨。原油价格方面，产油地区的地缘政治冲突对原油 价格影响较大，当前伊以冲突仍在持续升级、越发剧烈，仍存很大不确定性，因此在冲突期间预计原 油价格仍将进一步上涨。 华泰证券研报称，2025年1—5月家电板块累计上涨1.9%，在申万子行业中排名第12。本轮周期 中，家电社零温和恢复，内销保持优势格局，出口面临挑战。而家电行业基本面表现积极，有三大趋 势可以把握：锚定家电红利核心资产；海外本土化能力进一步强化，把握份额逆势提升潜力；关注 AI+创新、跨行业发展机遇，把握成长Alpha。白电龙头仍展现核心资产特质，高股息低估值，有望 受到避险资金青睐。清洁电器龙头有望受益全球份额增长。电视结构升级，展现较大盈利弹性。创新 家电品类差异化突围，呈现高成长特点。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴 推荐阅读 2025.06. ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 美元指数大幅下跌，原油价格暴涨。 当周，海外涨跌分化，韩国综合指数上涨2.9%，德国DAX 下跌 3.2%，道指下跌1.3%。10Y美债收益率下行10bp至4.41%；美元指数下跌1.1%至98.15。 WTI原油大涨 13%至73.0美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨3.8%至3432.6美元/盎司。 中美第二轮贸易谈判结束，等待领导人批准协议。 6月11日，中美双方于伦敦举行的第二轮贸易谈判结 束，重点聚焦于落实日内瓦协议执行细节，涉及设立出口监督机制、放开稀土出口、优化学生签证等问 题。目前，谈判已完成，正等待双方领导最终批准。 5月美国核心CPI弱于市场预期，失业金申领人数上升。 5月美国核心CPI环比0.1%，低于市场预期，其中 服装、新车大幅降温，家电、玩具等分项仍有所升温，美国CPI在三、四季度或仍将进入上行区间；截止 6月7日当周，美国失业金初申领人数24.8万人，高于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 1 大类资产：美元指 ...

地缘冲突升级与科技变革交织，全球顶尖分析师共绘贵金属投资新蓝图 2025年6月14日，红狮金业2025年中投资论坛在香港线下线上同步盛大开幕。本次论坛汇聚领域顶尖贵金属分析师和金融科技 专家，围绕三四季度黄金、白银及原油走势展开深度剖析，并系统性探讨人工智能在黄金交易领域的革命性应用。 贵金属走势：避险需求推动黄金白银持续走强 论坛开场，红狮金融研究院首席分析师展示了最新预期分析：黄金价格在第三季度有望再次突破3500美元/盎司，而白银在工 业与投资双重需求推动下，可能挑战42美元/盎司的历史新高。 论坛现场展示的资本流动监测数据显示，在近期中东冲突升级期间，全球资金呈现出"风险资产抛售+避险资产涌入"的典型模 式。军#工、石油石化板块逆势领涨，而传统消费板块则明显承压。"这不是短期扰动"，"地缘冲突风险溢价已嵌入贵金属长 期定价。当市场看到伊朗核设施成为打击目标，意味着游戏规则已经发生本质变化。" 科技变革：AI重塑黄金交易生态 本次论坛最具前瞻性的议题聚焦AI技术在黄金交易中的应用。红狮科技金融实验室负责人首次展示了 AI黄金交易辅助系统的 两大突破性进展： 1. 多模态市场情绪分析：整合新闻文本、社交媒 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell significantly by 1.1% to 98.15, while WTI crude oil surged by 13% to $73.0 per barrel, indicating a volatile market environment [1][50][32] - The S&P 500 sectors showed mixed performance, with energy and healthcare sectors rising by 5.7% and 1.2% respectively, while financials, industrials, and consumer staples fell by 2.6%, 1.6%, and 1.1% respectively [9][15] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, with healthcare and materials sectors rising by 8.8% and 7.0% [15][70] Group 2 - The second round of US-China trade negotiations concluded, focusing on the implementation details of the Geneva agreement, including export supervision mechanisms and rare earth exports [1][70] - The US Treasury auction results were stronger than expected, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.421%, which was 6 basis points lower than expected [72] - The US fiscal deficit rose to $316 billion in May, with total revenue reaching $371.2 billion, driven by a significant increase in tariff revenues [75][76]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/16 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/13 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/12 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/10 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...