Group 1 - The training event aimed to implement the spirit of the policy on strengthening regulation and preventing risks to promote high-quality development in the futures market [1] - The training emphasized the need for the industry to transition from traditional channel business to derivative risk management services, commodity asset management institutions, and wealth management consulting [1] - The use of AI technology is highlighted as a means to enhance the professional capabilities of industry personnel [1] Group 2 - The analysis of the sugar industry cycle illustrated the relationship between price and supply-demand changes, emphasizing the use of futures and options tools to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement [2] - Compliance and risk management are identified as fundamental guarantees for the sustainable development of futures practitioners [2] - The training provided practical guidance on market analysis, risk control, and compliance practices, while also addressing the direction for brokerage business transformation [2]

近日，在上海期货交易所（以下简称上期所）的大力支持下，西南期货有限公司（以下简称西南期货） 联合中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司云南分公司（以下简称太平洋财险）在云南省墨江哈尼族自治县 开展的2025年上期所天然橡胶支农专项"保险+期货"项目顺利结束。该项目为当地1100吨天然橡胶提供 价格风险保障，惠及1400余户胶农，最终实现赔付约81万元，赔付率103.59%，有效助力边境民族地区 橡胶产业稳健发展，为乡村振兴注入金融动能。 墨江哈尼族自治县作为我国天然橡胶主产区之一，长期面临橡胶价格波动带来的挑战，直接影响胶农收 益与产业可持续成长。在上期所的专项扶持下，西南期货连续两年在墨江落地天然橡胶"保险+期货"项 目，参保规模与保障水平均逐年提升。截至目前，已累计承保天然橡胶2200吨，保障金额约3683万元， 为当地超1600户胶农筑牢价格"防护网"，其中涵盖脱贫户620户，少数民族家庭1241户。 项目实施过程中，西南期货坚持党建引领，深化与墨江县乡村振兴战略合作。双方签署党建共建协议， 通过走访调研、交流培训等系列举措，形成"项目推进+党建引领+知识普及"三位一体服务模式。项目 团队深入田间地头，持续优化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent measures announced by the Tianjin Free Trade Zone management aim to promote high-quality development of bulk commodity trading venues, emphasizing the integration of futures and spot markets to enhance local industries [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The measures include encouraging trading venues to establish quotation zones in futures exchanges and exploring collaboration with delivery warehouses to provide basis pricing services for enterprises [1] - Various regions, including Zhejiang, Dalian, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, and Guangxi, have also introduced policies supporting the development of futures-spot market integration, showcasing both common features and differentiated strategies [1] Group 2: Local Practice and Achievements - Local practices have shown significant progress in integrating futures and spot markets, with models like basis trading becoming widely adopted in sectors such as agriculture and chemicals [2] - The "insurance + futures" model has effectively supported rural revitalization, providing price risk protection for numerous farmers across various products [2] Group 3: Challenges in Integration - Fundamental issues remain in the development of futures-spot integration, including insufficient infrastructure connectivity, low market participant engagement, and inadequate regulatory coordination [3] - Problems such as "data islands" and lack of mutual recognition of delivery warehouse qualifications hinder efficient market operations [3] Group 4: Development Strategies - Establishing a multi-layered commodity trading market system is essential, with a focus on cooperation and integration between futures and spot markets [4] - Key strategies include addressing market fragmentation, enhancing risk management, and fostering a collaborative ecosystem among stakeholders [5][6] Group 5: Empowering Local Industries - The integration model can significantly empower local industries facing price volatility and supply chain challenges, enhancing their competitiveness and market positioning [8] - Futures exchanges and companies should leverage their expertise while aligning with government and financial institutions to create a synergistic effect [8] Group 6: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Building a multi-layered commodity market system is a long-term and complex task, requiring alignment with national strategies and breakthroughs in key areas [9] - Recommendations include promoting policy innovations, exploring mechanisms for national resource reserves, and enhancing international cooperation to attract foreign investment [9]

Morning session notice 重要事项: 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、邯郸市、保定市自 12 月 26 日 12 时起，启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应；邢台市 自 12 月 25 日 18 时启动Ⅰ级应急响应；西安市 12 月 26 日 16 时执行重污染天气Ⅱ 级应急响应；安徽省发布重污染天气省级橙色预警。 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 796.82 万吨，周环比降幅 0.1%，五大钢材总库存 1257.99 万吨，周环比降 2.8%，五大品种周消费量为 833.61 万吨，其中建材消费环比降 3.2%， 板材消费环比增 1.4%。 【市场逻辑】 目前多数钢厂并未出台冬储政策，仅少数东北、华北钢厂推出政策。期钢厂效益略 有改善，但盈利率依然较低，产量继续低位运行。本周钢材产量下降，继续去库， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 消费端分化，建材消费下降，板材消 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

（原标题：碳酸锂期货主力合约月内已涨近3成，广期所发布风控措施） 有机构在肯定中长期供需格局的同时，也提示了碳酸锂期货价格的短期回调风险。有观点指出，当前价 格上涨已部分包含对未来供给的预期，但国内碳酸锂月度产量实际保持环比增长，供需并未出现实质性 失衡。光大期货等机构提示，需警惕期货持仓扰动以及价格快速上涨后，现货成交跟进乏力可能带来的 波动。 近日，碳酸锂期货市场延续强劲上涨态势，成为市场关注的焦点。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 12月24日，广期所碳酸锂期货主力合约强势突破12万元/吨关口，盘中一度涨超7%。尽管25日盘中出现 震荡，但最终主力合约LC2605仍收报123520元/吨，维持在高位。自12月以来，该合约价格已从9万元/ 吨附近累计上涨约29%。 《华夏时报》、《证券时报》等媒体普遍分析认为，本轮上涨是供应端预期扰动与下游需求支撑共同作 用的结果。一方面，江西宜春拟注销部分过期锂矿采矿权，以及市场对大型矿山复产时间可能延后的担 忧，引发了供应收缩的预期。另一方面，下游电池材料厂春节前的备货需求、储能领域订单的饱满排 产，共同支撑了市场情绪，推动库存持续去化。 面对价格的快速 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 ---------------------------------- ...

格隆汇12月26日｜早盘贵金属期货走势强劲，铂期货封涨停板，沪银一度暴涨8%，南华期货研报显 示，贵金属市场继续交易供给端受限，库存蓄水池浅且全球争夺定价与库存，而投资与配置端需求强劲 的逻辑。此外，地缘侧的复杂性对贵金属避险以及通过油价传导的抗通胀需求亦提振贵金属。相较之 下，白银因市场规模更小，且工业需求刚性以及现货市场偏紧，价格对投资需求与投机需求增加极其敏 感。接下来，继续关注新一任美联储主席的任命与经济数据对美联储货币政策预期的影响。 短期看黄 金突破前高后仍处于偏强状态；但白银高波动下价格风险仍大。 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the report's investment rating for the industry is provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 25, 2025, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. The overall sentiment is positive, with the market expected to be volatile but on an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with gains of 0.18%, 0.25%, 0.80%, and 0.97% respectively. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 11,854, 7,004, 12,456, and 14,596 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, IF and IC decreased by 563 and 3,891 lots respectively, IH increased by 197 lots, and IM decreased by 3,977 lots [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data for different index futures contracts are presented, showing the differences between the futures prices and the spot prices [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts. For example, in the IF2601 contract, long positions decreased by 1,522 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,499 lots [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly bullish trend [6]. 3.4 Important Drivers - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark during intraday trading for the first time since September 2024. Most views believe that the RMB against the US dollar has the basis for continued appreciation in 2026 [6]. - From January to November this year, 25,800 urban old residential areas were newly started for renovation across the country, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed their annual renovation plans [6]. 3.5 Market Conditions - The Politburo held a meeting to study and deploy the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026 [7]. - The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days. The trading volume reached 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. Some sectors such as commercial aerospace and paper - making performed strongly, while others like Hainan Free Trade Zone and precious metals weakened [7].