Group 1 - Recent surge in gold and silver prices has triggered an investment frenzy, leading to two gold and silver-themed LOF products announcing purchase limits [1][4] - On January 28, E Fund announced the suspension of subscription and regular investment for its gold-themed LOF to ensure stable fund operations, with a total scale of 452 million yuan as of the end of 2025 [1][3] - The second LOF to suspend subscriptions is the Guotai Asset Silver LOF, which also announced a suspension effective January 28, citing the protection of fund shareholders' interests [4][9] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a historical high of over $5,200 per ounce on January 28, 2026, marking an increase of over $920 or more than 21% since the beginning of 2026, while silver futures prices surged over 60% [5][10] - The premium rate for Guotai Asset Silver LOF exceeded 46%, with significant price differences between market trading prices and net asset values, prompting multiple risk alerts [6][11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to cool down the market, including adjustments to trading limits for silver and tin futures, and restrictions on certain clients suspected of undisclosed control relationships [6][11]

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

今日周三(1月28日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于28943一线上方，今日开盘于28601元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报29211元/千克，上涨2.89%，最高触及29497元/千克，最低下探27018元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 【要闻速递】 沪银周期看涨不变，沪银溢价大幅扩大至4300元/克，国内情绪再升温。但银价上涨情绪依旧强劲，但 存在巨大回调风险，沪银在27000支撑上，沪银主力合约参考运行区间27000-30700区间。 尽管近期GDP增长强劲且支出数据亮眼，但消费者情绪依然低迷，这将加剧人们对美国经济成果未被均 匀分配的担忧。与此同时，美国总统特朗普正前往爱荷华州开启每周巡回演讲，旨在兜售其经济成就， 他此前一直难以让选民相信在他的领导下生活比前任拜登时期更好。 美国消费者信心已崩溃至十多年来的最弱水平，甚至跌破了疫情期间的低点，这加剧了人们对世界最大 经济体健康状况的担忧。 世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数1月份跌至84.5，远低于市场预期，创下自2014年5月以来的最低 值。"1月份信心崩塌，因为消费者对当前形势和未来预期的担忧都在加深 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide a unified industry investment rating. Instead, it gives trend judgments and investment suggestions for different varieties, including "看多" (Bullish), "震荡" (Sideways), and "震荡偏强" (Sideways with an upward bias). 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index**: In the short term, the adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend before the holiday, as the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm and market performance will be highly correlated with regulatory trends [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be noted [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price maintains a high - level sideways movement as the dollar index has declined, but the enthusiasm for buying copper has eased [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to move sideways as the industrial driving force is limited recently, but the decline of the dollar index supports the price [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, as the current price is near the cost line, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stable. The recent cold wave in North America has increased energy prices, which is not conducive to the resumption of overseas smelters. Zinc has a certain room for a supplementary rise [1]. - **Nickel**: In the short term, the nickel price is at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Supply concerns may continuously disrupt the market. In the long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures are in a high - level sideways movement. Supply - side disruptions are frequent, and spot trading is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is negative news, the increase in tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. In the pattern of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is still upward potential for tin. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions [1]. - **Precious Metals and New Energy**: - **Silver**: International uncertainties and the weakening dollar index support the price of precious metals. Due to factors such as spot shortages and falling inventories, there is a significant short - squeeze sentiment in the domestic market. The import window has opened significantly. It is recommended to control positions in single - side trading and pay attention to the inter - market arbitrage opportunities for the far - month contracts [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The macro - driving force has weakened slightly, but international uncertainties are still high, which may support the prices of platinum and palladium, and the price fluctuations may be large. In the long - term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. It is recommended to allocate platinum on dips or continue to pay attention to the [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of polysilicon and silicone decreased in December. The northwest region increased production while the southwest region decreased production [1]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: High production, high inventory, etc., suppress the price increase space. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. It is recommended to exit long single - side positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage. The upward pressure on iron ore is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The market is pessimistic about the end - point price of the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased their positions. The coking coal 05 contract broke through important support levels. In the future, the price may be gradually priced according to the Mongolian coal long - term contract cost. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: The purchasing rhythm of major consuming countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean - oil fundamentals are strong. Coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, creating a positive expectation gap. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". Future attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is no continuous driving force in the short - term fundamental aspect. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - **Corn**: The corn sales progress has passed half, and the inventories at ports and downstream are still low. With the replenishment of downstream enterprises and the profit - taking of long - positions before the holiday, there is a certain risk of price correction [1]. - **Soybeans**: The dry weather in Argentina may cause short - term weather speculation. The precipitation in February is expected to return to normal. With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the overall rebound of M05 is expected to be limited [1]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - environment. It has not broken through the sideways area. Short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebound, and the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas offer has still declined slightly, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the log futures and spot markets. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand, the production capacity still needs to be further released as the average slaughter weight has not decreased significantly [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified, and the cold wave in the United States has increased energy demand, which is beneficial to the price increase of crude oil and fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is relatively high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw - material cost has strong support, the synthetic rubber has risen significantly, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish, driving the upward movement of the natural - rubber market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom. Recently, the profit of private butadiene - styrene rubber plants has been seriously lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to have a wide - range sideways correction, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - **PTA and Short - fiber**: The strong PX market has led to the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of capital has flowed into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise of the entire chemical industry. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The speculative demand in the market has increased significantly [1]. - **Styrene**: The news of the shutdown of Middle Eastern styrene plants has led to a rapid rebound of the styrene futures price. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, the styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import of methanol is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading plants have stopped production, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. The freight in the inland area has increased due to the cold air, and the northwest enterprises have great pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase. The full - density plant of Zhong'an United has stopped production, and the linear - production ratio has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global PVC production capacity will be put into operation less, and the future expectation is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor. The export tax - rebate policy has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export in the future. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity [1]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the market sentiment will switch between fundamentals and emotions. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the futures price is expected to weaken. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

l数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 中国港口大豆库存(万吨) == == == == == ==== 2020 ===== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 ====== 2024 ====== 2025 = 2026 · 2025 · 2026 == === 2023 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 400 200 200 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 饲料企业豆粕库存天数 全国主要油厂豆粕库存(万吨) 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2026/1/28 | 指标 | | 1月27日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit growth turned positive, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, the first positive growth since 2021, and the profit in December increased significantly by 5.3%. - The stock index showed a "V" shape intraday, and the volatility of stock index options decreased significantly. The market is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Interest Rates** - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 4.98bp; DR007 closed at 1.58, up 0.95bp; GC001 closed at 1.36, down 1.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.62, unchanged; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29, up 0.75bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, unchanged; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.45bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.22, down 2.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 4020 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [4]. - **Open Market Operations** - This week, 11810 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1583 billion, 3240 billion, 3635 billion, 2102 billion, and 1250 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. In addition, 2000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [5]. - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies, predicting systemic financial risks, and maintaining the stability of the financial market [5]. - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets** - The CSI 300 closed at 4706, down 0.03%; the SSE 50 closed at 3052, up 0.09%; the CSI 500 closed at 8549, up 0.50%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8382, up 0.20%. The IF contract for the current month closed at 4715, unchanged; the IH contract for the current month closed at 3060, up 0.2%; the IC contract for the current month closed at 8554, up 0.8%; the IM contract for the current month closed at 8386, up 0.7% [6]. - The trading volume of IF was 142964, down 24.6; the trading volume of IH was 67869, down 19.8; the trading volume of IC was 211372, down 6.8; the trading volume of IM was 262400, down 5.3. The positions of IF were 310326, with an unspecified change; the positions of IH were 114497, down 3.5%; the positions of IC were 343302, down 0.2%; the positions of IM were 398403, up 1.0% [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 29217 billion yuan, a decrease of 3593 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, aerospace and insurance sectors rising, and coal, pharmaceutical commerce, energy metals, batteries and traditional Chinese medicine sectors falling [6]. - **Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount** - The IF premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 2.94%, - 1.87%, 0.15%, and 1.73% respectively. - The IH premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 3.89%, - 2.67%, - 1.31%, and 0.53% respectively. - The IC premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.94%, 0.11%, 2.21%, and 3.26% respectively. - The IM premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.63%, 2.09%, 4.93%, and 6.02% respectively [8].

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场宽幅震荡，Wind全A上涨0.14%，成交额2.92万亿元。中证1000指数上涨0.2%，中证500 指数上涨0.5%，沪深300指数下跌0.03%，上证50指数上涨0.09%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策， 对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强 政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在 谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货 币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期来 看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所 ...

重点关注 尿素、原油、沥青、铂、焦煤 夜盘表现 板块表现 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 1.77% 贵金属, 40.30% 油脂油料, 7.67% 软商品, 2.32% 有色, 24.79% 煤焦钢矿, 8.26% 能源, 2.24% 化工, 9.13% 谷物, 1.04% 农副产品, 2.49% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]