黄金小时图 原油方面： 周三（8月13日）晚间公布美国截至8月8日当周EIA原油库存数据录得增加303.6万桶，市场预期减少27.5万桶，前值减少302.9万桶，利空油价。 国际能源署（IEA）在最新的月报中显示，预计2025年全球石油需求增长从70.4万桶/日下调至68.5万桶/日；而2025年全球石油供应增长预测从210万桶/日上 调至250万桶/日。月报显示全球原油炼厂的运行量将在8月份接近历史最高水平，达到每天8560万桶，这极有可能导致库存增加，并且明年全球石油供应将 出现创纪录的供给过剩情况，施压油价。 黄金方面： 美国7月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，同上月持平。美国最新通胀数据表现比较温和，一定程度上缓解了特朗普关税政策带来的滞胀风险，进而强化了美联储 鸽派的预期，当前黄金市场围绕美联储降息预期进行交易仍将是大概率事件。 美联储官员们也在营造鸽派的预期，甚至连前美联储官员布拉德都转向鸽派。布拉德近期表示与美国财长贝森特进行了交谈，并且表达了对低利率的支持。 美国财长贝森特更是直接表示，美联储有降息50个基点的可能。 技术面：日线上，行情回调在62日均线附近连续两个交易日收小阳线，显示回调有望企 ...

. 美国7月CPI年率持平于2.7%强化9月降息预期（概率超93%）支撑金价，但核心CPI升至3.1%凸显通胀粘性潜在压制；美国债务总额首破37万亿美元加剧债务风险，叠加 特朗普施压美联储降息提振黄金货币属性；中美关税休战延期90天缓和避险情绪，而俄美领导人会晤临近或扰动地缘风险溢价；此前关税政策乌龙引发COMEX溢价波 动，国内现货需求减弱迹象显现，短期金价震荡偏强但需警惕情绪退潮风险。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审 ...

【环球时报记者 陈子帅 白云怡 环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报特约记者 裴茗】12日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。根 据声明，自当日起，美国继续暂停实施24%的对等关税90天，保留加征剩余10%的关税；中方继续暂停实施24%对美加征关税以及有关非关税反制措施90 天，保留加征剩余10%的关税。另据媒体报道，当地时间11日，美国总统特朗普已签署行政令，将对中国的关税暂停措施再延长90天。英国广播公司 （BBC）说，尽管事前舆论已经广泛作出准确预测，但在靴子真正落地之前，大家还是屏住了呼吸。12日，"靴子落地"。美国彭博社说，这一事态发展稳定 了世界上两个最大经济体之间的贸易关系，缓解了外界对关税战重燃的担忧，也使得两国有更多时间讨论一些悬而未决的问题。多名分析人士12日对《环球 时报》记者表示，中美延长"关税休战"90天显示两国经贸关系走向"阶段性缓和"，也为下一阶段的双边磋商创造了一定程度的积极氛围。 " 逐渐回归基本稳定 " "过去3个月来，中美两国通过平等对话、谈判协商的方式，为美国单方面发起的关税战按下了'暂停键'。"中国国际问题研究院美国所副所长张腾军12日对 《环球时报 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the recent performance of precious metals, with gold rising by 1.24% and silver by 3.79% due to the easing of panic following weaker non-farm data [5] - Copper prices increased by 1.40% this week, benefiting from improved economic sentiment in the US [6] - The lithium market is experiencing a significant price surge due to potential supply constraints, with expectations of prices reaching 65,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in the near future [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as procurement of high-priced raw materials increases among manufacturers [8] - The rare earth market is showing signs of improvement, with exports increasing by 21.4% year-on-year in July [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a weekly increase of 5.24%, ranking third among sectors [17] - The top five stocks in the sector this week included Huaguang New Materials and Ningbo Yunsheng [18] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up 1.40%, aluminum up 1.69%, zinc up 3.83%, lead up 1.49%, and tin up 1.17% [20] - Precious metals also saw gains: COMEX gold up 1.24% and silver up 3.79% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventory increased by 19,482 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,716 tons [33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is waiting for new direction from the US - Russia talks, and there is inventory accumulation pressure after the peak season. It is recommended to buy SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips [2]. - For precious metals, due to the clarification of gold tariff rumors and potential market sentiment swings, it is advisable to wait patiently for pull - back opportunities [3]. - In the base metals market, prices show different trends. For example, copper prices are affected by mine resumptions and inflation indicators; aluminum prices are in short - term oscillations; zinc prices are expected to face resistance on rebounds [4][5][8]. - In the energy and chemical market, fuels face inventory and demand issues, while asphalt has limited supply pressure and potential price support [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the soybean and bean - related products are affected by weather, trade policies, and inventory conditions, with no clear trend yet [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to maintain a risk - preference - positive trend, and the bond market is under pressure but may show signs of stabilization [48][49]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose. After continuous declines last week, the market awaits US - Russia talks. There is inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. A double - buy strategy for SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak demand. Singapore's inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to shrink [22]. - **Asphalt**: August production is down. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. After Trump clarified gold tariff rumors, market sentiment may swing due to upcoming events. It is recommended to wait for pull - back opportunities [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices closed lower. Some Chilean mines resumed work. The high - tariff issue between China and the US is on hold. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and consumption is in the off - season. Short - term oscillations are expected, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising. The zinc market is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short positions are recommended above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of Shanghai lead lack contradictions. Supply and demand are in a state of offsetting each other. It is advisable to hold long positions around 16,600 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the mid - to - late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to enter short positions actively as the market returns to fundamentals [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices rose briefly. Low inventory provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions at low prices [11]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is in the agricultural off - season. Supply is relatively abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly without new positive factors [24]. - **Methanol**: Coal price increases have compressed the profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest. Inland inventory is low and decreasing, while coastal inventory is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream restocking [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices stopped falling, and pure benzene prices oscillated. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in the mid - to - late third quarter, and it is recommended to trade the monthly spread [26]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost support is weak. Although supply decreased and demand increased slightly, the upward price drive is insufficient [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is supported, while the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene has limited changes. Overall, the upward price drive is insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong performance in the short term, but there is supply pressure in the long term [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Affected by Trump's remarks and weather, the market is in low - level oscillations. The US soybean is in good condition, and the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate without a clear trend before the tariff issue is resolved [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is optimistic in the short term, driving the soybean oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, considering the long - term development of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's report and China - Canada relations. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal to widen [38]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures are in low - level oscillations. The market atmosphere is weak, and it may continue to be weak without policy guidance [40]. - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended for industries to hedge on price rebounds [41]. - **Egg**: The egg futures market follows the logic of de - capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to spot prices, demand in the peak season, and cold - storage egg release [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton production is expected to be stable. The domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate due to limited positive factors [44]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is rising. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The wood market's supply - demand situation is improving, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price is rising. The inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see or take light long positions on dips [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares are at a high level with incremental trading. The risk - preference is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure but may stabilize. The yield curve is expected to steepen, and it is recommended to be cautious in taking long positions [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three interest rate cuts within the year, which is favorable for gold prices [5]. - The gold price is projected to maintain an upward trend due to ongoing purchases by the People's Bank of China [4][5]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [10]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to supply constraints [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 11.5%, a 3-month increase of 21.4%, and a 12-month increase of 44.5% [3]. Precious Metals Market Data - The London gold price was $3,394.15 per ounce, up $47.30 from August 1, reflecting a 1.41% increase. The London silver price was $38.29 per ounce, up $1.80, a 4.93% increase [4][30]. Copper and Aluminum Data - LME copper closed at $9,700 per ton, up $108 from August 1, a 1.13% increase. SHFE copper closed at ¥78,460 per ton, up ¥70, a 0.09% increase [39]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥20,630 per ton, up ¥140 from August 1 [40]. Tin and Antimony Data - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥268,310 per ton, up ¥4,240, a 1.61% increase. Antimony prices were ¥182,500 per ton, down ¥2,000, a 1.08% decrease [41]. Recommended Stocks - For the gold industry, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold. For copper, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining. For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 11 日 铜铝周报 国内市场再度回暖，有色或持续回升 核心观点 铜：海外矿端扰动，国内市场再度回暖，铜价或持续回升 上周铜价企稳回升，周五夜盘上行明显，持仓量有所回升。宏观 层面，美联储降息预期升温，美元指数走弱，利好铜价，但需要警惕 海外衰退交易风险。国内市场氛围再度回暖，这也有利于铜价企稳回 升。产业层面，海外矿端扰动利好铜价，库存高位持续上升利空铜 价；国内产业淡季，上游维持高产量，下游需求走弱，电解铜累库， 利空铜价。整体宏观利好，产业淡季，铜价企稳回升，预计维持偏强 ...

周周芝道 - 反内卷下大宗怎么看 20250810 摘要 美联储降息预期提前，流动性宽松或加速，尽管非农数据引发美股短暂 下跌，但市场迅速转向定价宽松，预示未来政策变化可能对市场产生重 要影响。 国内政策方面，预计 7 月底政治局会议后两个月内难有强劲内需政策出 台，最早或在 10 月底出现调整，美国经济数据和中美贸易谈判进展将 是关键观察点。 反内卷政策被市场解读为涨价逻辑，实则是走出通缩的重要环节，对大 宗商品市场产生显著影响，尤其国内黑色金属在长期熊市后出现反弹。 下半年大宗商品价格受海内外因素共振影响，国内政策短期内难有强刺 激，海外美联储货币政策宽松将影响全球流动性，需密切关注美国经济 数据和中美贸易谈判。 黄金市场在 5 月出现分水岭，结束 4 月牛市行情转为震荡调整，受全球 贸易框架清晰和权益市场向好影响，避险需求减弱，但中长期去美元化 逻辑仍支撑金价。 Q&A 上周全球大类资产的表现如何？ 上周全球大类资产的整体趋势是流动性驱动。中国股票市场风险偏好较高，利 率开始下降，债券市场利率也有所降低，这反映了基本面反弹和大宗商品持续 性反弹预期的降温。海外方面，美国经济软着陆的预期逐渐被流动性宽松所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].