Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals and Commodities - **Key Focus**: Gold prices, U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and commodity market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: Gold prices surpassed $5,500, reflecting heightened global concerns over U.S. economic and political uncertainties, prompting some countries to consider increasing gold allocations, which undermines the dollar's reserve status [1][10][11] 2. **Federal Reserve's Policy Impact**: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's potential policies may lead to interest rate cuts, but his hawkish stance on balance sheet reduction adds market uncertainty. This could trigger liquidity crises or market shocks, increasing risks [1][6][11] 3. **Investor Behavior**: The significant influx of ETF funds indicates strong retail and individual investor participation in gold, making it a liquidity and sentiment-driven asset [2][3] 4. **Geopolitical Factors**: Increased geopolitical uncertainties have driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold, although the timing of these impacts remains unpredictable [3][6] 5. **Decoupling of Fundamentals**: Traditional factors influencing gold prices, such as real interest rates, have decoupled from gold price movements, suggesting that market expectations and speculative behavior are now more significant drivers [4][5] 6. **U.S. Debt Concerns**: U.S. debt faces challenges such as high interest payment pressures and low foreign ownership, leading investors to diversify into gold. The perception of U.S. debt as a safe asset is being reevaluated [8][9] 7. **De-dollarization Process**: The de-dollarization process is gradual, with some countries selling U.S. debt and buying gold, but others continue to increase their U.S. debt holdings, indicating a complex and slow transition [9][11] 8. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The commodity market is experiencing structural supply-side shortages, influenced by macro narratives and policy changes. The nomination of Warsh may lead to a broad market downturn, but fundamental differentiation could lead to rebounds [15][16] 9. **Energy Market Opportunities**: There are marginal recovery opportunities in the energy market due to OPEC's production delays and geopolitical risks, despite current oversupply conditions [22] 10. **Copper Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to see price increases, with projections for 2026 placing prices between $11,000 and $12,000, driven by limited new capacity and demand dynamics [19] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The current situation mirrors past instances of inflation and economic turmoil, where aggressive monetary policy was required to restore confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt [12] 2. **Long-term Economic Balance**: The U.S. faces challenges in balancing low inflation, low interest rates, and maintaining dollar hegemony, with historical precedents suggesting that aggressive rate hikes may be necessary but politically challenging [13] 3. **Investment Risks**: Investors in commodities should be cautious of consensus expectations, which can lead to limited trading opportunities and increased risks if market narratives shift [23] 4. **Real Estate Market Changes**: Recent policy changes in the real estate market have positively impacted transaction volumes, but the overall market remains sensitive to inventory issues and economic conditions [24][25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, focusing on the implications for the gold market, U.S. monetary policy, and broader commodity market dynamics.

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价小幅企稳，国内精炼铜现货维系进口窗口关闭状态。宏观方面，美国1月ISM制造业指数 升至52.6大超预期，创2022年2月以来新高，远高于预期的48.5，主要受新订单和产出稳健增长的提振， 就业指数也有所好转，缓解了市场对于经济的担忧。另外，美政府关门让关键数据再次"迟到"，周二12 月JOLTS职位空缺报告和周五非农就业报告改期发布。国内方面，中国1月RatingDog制造业PMI升至三 个月高位50.3，销售价格14个月来首次上升。库存方面，LME库存下降300吨至174675吨；Comex库存 增加1859吨至525967吨；SHFE铜仓单增加1676吨至158527吨，BC铜维系10605吨。需求方面，因铜价 持续高位，市场维系刚性采购需求，但也可以看到随着铜价调整，采购意愿明显回升。贵金属调整给有 色市场带来较强冲击，当前铜市场也面临基本面方面疲软的现货、持续累积的库存以及春节前后的需求 真空，构成了价格短期回调的压力，市场或在该时间阶段测试9 ...

新湖期货认为，黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期扰动，中期市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温与特朗普政 府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全球债务可持续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前，上述中长期逻辑并未发 生根本性逆转。 仍有机构在市场恐慌中，坚持长期看多有色金属板块，中信证券指出，在经历2025年的大涨行情后，有色金属价格与股票行情的上涨动能依然充足，供应 扰动、需求局部高景气和囤货行为为金属价格带来强支撑，流动性宽松带来的交易活跃度上升以及地缘冲突带来的避险情绪升温有望放大金属的价格弹 性。看好贵金属、工业金属、电池金属和战略金属板块的配置价值。 今日（2月3日）现货黄金开盘反弹，截至发稿，重回4800美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。分析指出，量化基金去杠杆化、杠杆ETF和趋势跟踪策略头寸调整所 引发的强制抛售潮，其主体部分可能已基本释放。 消息面上，特朗普称正在与伊朗对话。当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟 通，"将观察事态如何发展"。 尽管近期黄金价格大幅波动，但美银仍将其看作对 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 国内电铜库存开始去化，价格或走强 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 22.6 35.7 128.5 沪深 300 1.7 1.4 23.3 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 200 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：铜铝下游 开工率有所回升，高价接受度提 升》2026-01-28 2、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 ▌贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑 贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4981.85 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 23 日+35.60 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【有色】2026年1月中国电解铜产量创月度产量新高——铜行业周报（20260126-20260130） 我 小结：市场认为美联储2026年3月降息概率不大；短期金银下跌或对商品整体情绪有所拖累。线缆企业开工 率本周环比回升，但临近春节，下游或整体偏弱；铜价短期震荡。2026年供需偏紧局势依然未变，继续看好铜 价上行。 （王招华/方驭涛） 2026-02-01 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【建筑建材】SpaceX计划部署百万颗算力卫星，商业航天需求空间再度扩容——低轨卫星行业跟踪点评 （二） SpaceX计划部署百万颗算力卫星，再度扩容商业航天需求空间。可回收火箭制造及发射能力是星座大规模 建设的基础。激光通信网络是 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to trading congestion, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and declines in US tech stocks [1][2] - The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact the dollar and US Treasury yields [2] - Central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings are projected to support gold prices through 2026 [1][2] - London silver leasing rates have decreased, while US silver inventories are declining rapidly [1][2] Group 2: Copper - The nomination of hawkish Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is leading to expectations of balance sheet reduction and a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on copper prices [3] - The market is expected to continue digesting macroeconomic correction pressures, but supply disruptions and an anticipated widening global copper mine deficit may provide price support [3] Group 3: Aluminum - Macro sentiment has cooled, leading to downward pressure on aluminum prices due to tightening liquidity from falling US stocks and short-term policy tightening expectations [4] - The aluminum processing comprehensive operating rate has decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 59.4% compared to the previous week [4] - Seasonal inventory accumulation during the off-peak period is expected to further suppress aluminum prices [4] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices have significantly corrected due to a retreat in macro sentiment and liquidation by bullish funds [5] - The return to normalcy in Indonesian RKAB approvals and increased activity in exchanges, along with high ore prices, have alleviated supply concerns [5] - Tin prices are shifting from a "panic-driven" phase to a "supply-demand normalization" phase [5] Group 5: Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate inventories continued to decline, indicating strong demand despite seasonal production decreases [6] - Anticipated reductions in battery export tax rebates may lead to front-loaded battery demand, maintaining robust off-peak demand [6] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while cobalt companies are extending into electric new downstream sectors to enhance competitive barriers [6] Group 6: Rare Earths - Prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxides are continuously rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics and pre-holiday stocking needs [7] - The investment value of rare earths as a strategic resource is viewed positively [7] Group 7: Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have surged due to policy regulation and replenishment, driven by crackdowns on illegal mining and strong pre-holiday stocking [8] - Supply constraints and high costs are expected to keep tungsten prices elevated despite potential volume reductions during the Spring Festival [8] - Uranium prices are anticipated to rise due to rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [8]

2月2日，国内有色金属市场遭遇调整。日盘时段沪铜主力合约重挫9.01%，夜盘时段跌势未止，跌幅一 度扩大至2.41%。沪铝、沪镍、沪锡等多个有色金属品种同步大跌。权益市场上，中证申万有色金属指 数收跌8.02%，同花顺铜板块整体收跌8.32%，铜陵有色、北方铜业、江西铜业、云南铜业等行业龙头 集体跌停。 此番调整，导火索直指宏观层面。美联储新任主席提名事件持续发酵，市场对全球流动性宽松的预期降 温。与此同时，前期累积的大量获利盘集中了结，贵金属市场大跌激发恐慌情绪等，共同酿成了有色金 属板块此番下跌。 虞璐彦预计，2026年全球铜供应增速仍落后于需求增速。预计2026年全球铜矿增量仅40万吨至45万吨， 增速为2%至2.5%；而得益于来自风电、光伏、新能源车、储能、AI数据中心等领域约470万吨的绿色消 费增量，预计2026年消费增速约为3%。 不过，多位业内人士表示，铜的基本面并未发生任何实质性转变。从供应瓶颈到电力、储能、AI需求 的结构性增长，支撑铜价的核心逻辑依然完整。业界普遍认为，2026年全球铜市依然呈现供需偏紧格 局，此轮急跌更多是情绪与资金面的短期扰动，铜价中长期向上的趋势依然明确。 中信建投 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 国内电铜库存开始去化，价格或走强 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 22.6 35.7 128.5 沪深 300 1.7 1.4 23.3 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 200 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：铜铝下游 开工率有所回升，高价接受度提 升》2026-01-28 2、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 ▌贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑 贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4981.85 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 23 日+35.60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing strength in precious metals and anticipates potential profit increases in minor metals [1]. - It emphasizes the financial attributes of copper and the impact of supply constraints on various metals, including aluminum and tungsten [4][5]. - The report notes the continued demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and the selling of U.S. government bonds by European institutions [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - The report indicates a focus on the financial attributes of copper, with LME copper prices at $12,921 per ton and SHFE copper at ¥101,340 per ton, showing a week-on-week change of -0.6% and +0.6% respectively [4]. - It mentions a tightening supply of copper concentrate, with processing fees declining, which may accelerate the clearing of smelting profits [4]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $3,175 per ton, while SHFE aluminum was at ¥24,290 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +0.9% and +1.5% respectively [4]. - The report notes a high operating rate of 98.3% for electrolytic aluminum and a slight increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises [4]. Precious Metals - SHFE gold prices were reported at ¥1,115.6 per gram and COMEX gold at $4,983.1 per ounce, with week-on-week increases of +8.1% and +8.3% respectively [4]. - The report highlights that the SPDR Gold ETF's net holdings increased to 1,086.5 tons, indicating stable demand from overseas investors [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices rose to ¥535,000 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of +5.5% [4]. - The report also notes a tightening supply in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and dysprosium oxides showing slight declines [4]. Steel Sector - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at ¥3,142 and ¥3,305 per ton, with slight week-on-week decreases [5]. - The report mentions a significant explosion at a steel plant, which may lead to stricter safety regulations and supply constraints in the steel industry [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum, as well as those in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [8]. - It also recommends monitoring tungsten and rare earth companies, as well as steel firms with strong product structures [8].

[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2026-02-02 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 沃什不是牛市拐点，且待情绪休整 核心观点： [Table_Summary] 金：加速上涨后出现筹码踩踏，但沃什不是拐点。本周金价行情较为极 端，前期因美元指数持续走弱（格陵兰问题、特朗普弱美元言论），以及 FOMC 会议上鲍威尔略偏鸽（暗示降息周期继续），金价加速上行，而后 周四周五出现急速下跌，本质还是在极度的一致性多头预期后，引发筹 码踩踏，导火索是沃什意外被提名。但沃什不会是拐点，沃什此前为鹰 派人设，反对 QE，市场由此线性外推至未来。但第一，理念是可能改变 的，尤其是在真的成为 Fed 主席以及要和 Trump 打交道后；第二，沃什 现阶段是支持降息的，同时不太可能执行缩表，今年中选下，大概率还 是流动性宽松环境。再退一步讲，在财政-货币失序化这种时代命题下， 真的会因为主席是谁就彻底改变历史轨迹吗？考虑到金价本轮回调幅度 最深达 15%左右，在极致的情绪性下杀过后，亦容易出现回补，无需大 幅恐慌，但同时，在高波的环境中应多加注意风险。而对于中长期配置 者来说，法币 ...