Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

最新非农报告显示，劳动力就业状况和之前类似，就业维持弱势。美联储面临的难题没有得到解决，必须在阻止劳动力市场疲软，和防止通胀进一步恶化之 前，做出艰难的选择。美联储坚称劳动力市场不是通胀的根源，就业数据也印证了此观点。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，非农报告并没有把黄金带出震荡区域，黄金也没有向4380美元的历史高点冲锋。 技术面：昨日日线收十字星。1小时级别，价格在4275-4350美元之间震荡，并且震荡有收敛的态势，关注今日价格能否取得区间破位。 黄金方面： 12月16日，美国公布10月和11月非农数据，其中10月就业人数负10.5万人，11月就业数据6.4万人，失业率4.6％。考虑到当时美国政府仍处在停摆之中，数 据的有效性较差，金价仍在高位整理。 原油方面： 黄金小时图 供应端信息，欧美对俄罗斯原油的制裁或已被市场消化，俄油的出口回升，促使原油进一步走弱。美国仍在推动俄乌和谈，当前美乌双方在柏林达成进一步 共识，后续取决于俄罗斯态度。在此影响下，油价进一步下行。同时，美国和委内瑞拉的局势仍然不明，美方扣押了委方油轮，后续不排除军事升级。 需求端信息，美国原油库存数据显示，截至12月5日当周EI ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜高开低走，AI 交易退潮以及日央行加息担忧令全球股市重挫，铜价上攻再度 受挫，沪铜最低跌至牛熊线附近，午后跌幅缩窄，近月价差缩窄至 80.现货跌 565， 贴水扩大 185，日内持货商抛售情绪高而买方接货情绪差，整体需求不佳。LME0-3 转为 contango 结构，现货进口亏损缩窄至 670 附近，洋山铜成交依旧疲弱。短期 全球股市 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 美国 11 月非农数据好于预期，失业率数据弱于预期，美元指数下探，铜价震荡调整，昨日伦铜 3M 合 约收跌 0.57%至 11619 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 91830 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (2011 1292号 2025年12月 16日 | | | | 纪元非 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 765 | ate | -150 | -16.39% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 415 | 565 | -150 | -26.55% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1115 | 1265 | -150 | -11.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 研究员：魏鑫 研究助理：吴越 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月15日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 摘要：展望2026年，国内在"稳中求进"总基调下，宏观政策将更加注重提质增效，重点聚焦经济转型效 率提升、消费新动能培育以及有效投资的精准发力。尽管美联储已开启降息周期，但政策条件受多重约 束，需警惕"预期差"带来的波动。欧元区与日本可能在通胀压力和货币政策正常化诉求下试探性开启加 息进程。全球货币政策分化格局进一步凸显，同时产业竞争格局下的增长结构性分化亦将继续体现。 经济增长的结构性分化带来商品价格的分化。在总量增长受限的预期下，具备涨价动能商品往往本身具 备战略性和稀缺性，且离增长动能强的产业更近，其波动还可能来自供应端的脆弱性。相反，供应稳定 且未能受益于经济转型的相关产 ...