Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key theme in the current economic landscape [1] Research Insights Machinery Equipment - XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) reported a total revenue of CNY 91.66 billion in 2024, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to CNY 5.976 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.92% to CNY 26.815 billion, and net profit rose by 26.37% to CNY 2.022 billion, with a net profit margin of 7.6% [6] Construction Decoration - China Railway (601390.SH) faced a 19% decline in net profit in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure in traditional infrastructure sectors, although overseas orders showed strong growth. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.1 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 28.9 billion, respectively [7] Steel - Hunan Steel (000932.SZ) saw a significant improvement in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 43.55% to CNY 562 million. The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering, with a gross profit margin expected to improve [8] Automotive - Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 3.4 billion in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 11% to CNY 210 million. The company is well-positioned for growth in the automotive sector [11] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) achieved a revenue of CNY 79.118 billion in Q1 2025, a 10.06% increase, with net profit rising by 15.09% to CNY 5.487 billion. The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [14] Food and Beverage - Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 626 million in Q1 2025, a 35.97% increase, with net profit rising by 2.36% to CNY 57 million. The company is focused on strengthening its core business and expanding into new markets [15] Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) faced challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in performance due to reduced demand in new construction areas. The company is optimizing its distribution channels [22] Power - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) reported stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue projected to be CNY 87.698 billion in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. Net profit is expected to be CNY 6.25 billion [20] Textile and Apparel - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) reported a 2% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 27%. The company is adjusting its production capacity to match orders [29] Coal - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 90.26 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 14.46%, with net profit down by 28.33% to CNY 6.81 billion. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [43]

宏观日报 | 2025-04-29 关注上游价格受贸易战不确定性影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注能源中游基础设施相关通知推行。 1）国家能源局发布关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措 的通知。通知提到，支持投资建设能源基础设施。支持民营企业参股投资核电项目，建立健全长效工作机制。支 持民营企业投资建设水电、油气储备设施、液化天然气接收站等基础设施项目，支持民营企业参与油气管网主干 线或支线项目。 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续震荡。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、建 材价格持续回落。4）农业：鸡蛋价格上涨。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售与去年同期持平，处近三年低位。2）服务：国际航班班次增加；国内 航班班次较同期减少。 市场定价：医药生物、化工行业信用利差近期小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 服务行业：五一假期机票价格略降。 1）数据显示，截至4月18日，"五一"假期民航国内机票预订均价约881元，较 2019年同期提升11.1 ...

证券代码：600606 股票简称：绿地控股 编号：临 2025-010 绿地控股集团股份有限公司 特此公告。 绿地控股集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 29 日 2025 年第一季度基建业务经营情况简报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 1-3 月，公司基建业务新增项目情况如下: （一）业务分部 | 细分行业 | 房屋建设 | 基建工程 | 其他 | 总计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目数（个） | 291 | 117 | 134 | 542 | | 总金额（万元） | 2,401,314 | 1,257,012 | 536,399 | 4,194,724 | | 总金额同比增减（%） | -4.01 | -15.76 | 76.70 | -2.38 | （二）地区分部 | 项目地区 | 境内 | 境外 | 总计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目数（个） | 533 | 9 | 542 | | 总金额（万元） ...

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠强 资深高级宏观分析师 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事 件： 2025年一季度GDP同比5.4%、预期5.2%、前值5.4%。3月，社零当月同比5.9%、预期4.4%、前值 4%；固定资产投资累计同比4.2%、预期4%、前值4.1%；房地产开发投资累计同比-9.9%、预期-10.2%、 前值-9.8%；新建商品房销售面积累计同比-3%、前值-5.1%；工业增加值当月同比7.7%、预期5.9%、前值 5.9%。 核心观点：2024年表现强劲的"旧结构"继续发力，但"新结构"也在蓄势恢复。 一季度经济超预期，主要源于2024年强势领域的支撑延续，但"新动能"的贡献也在提速。 一季度实际 GDP同比5.4%，高基数下仍持平2024年Q4。结构上，二产增加值增速大幅反弹构成主要支撑（+0.7pct至 5.9%），主因出口走强、制造业投资保持高位、消费提速的影响。但2024年表现较弱的消费当前明显提 速，是新的积极变化。此外，服务业投资增速（4.8%） ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in municipal and water conservancy investments, which grew by 26.0% and 36.8% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2] - New signed orders for construction companies indicate a recovery in infrastructure sentiment, with notable increases in orders for major companies such as China Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report suggests focusing on the conversion rhythm of physical workload in infrastructure and investment opportunities in high-sentiment provinces like Sichuan [1] - The report highlights the potential for cyclical recovery driven by warming physical volumes in infrastructure and real estate, alongside expectations for policy support amid tariff impacts [1] - The report recommends monitoring the recovery of international engineering projects along the Belt and Road, particularly in Europe and ASEAN [1] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first three months of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a monthly increase of 12.6% in March [1] - New special bonds issued in Q1 amounted to 960.2 billion, an increase of 326.1 billion year-on-year, providing strong support for infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly decline of 1.6% in March [2] - New construction area saw a significant drop of 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area decreased by 14.3% [2] Cement and Glass Industry - Cement production in the first quarter was 331 million tons, a decline of 1.4% year-on-year, but March saw a recovery with a 2.5% increase [3] - The average cement price remained stable at 402 yuan per ton as of April 13, with expectations for price increases in early April [3] - Flat glass production fell by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, but market trading conditions are gradually improving [4] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Construction, and China Electric Power, all rated as "Buy" [15]

作 者丨张赛男 编 辑丨巫燕玲 刘雪莹 ETF放量、富时中国A5 0指数期货直线拉升、创业板指反弹！ 农业股持续大涨，北大荒等1 0余股涨停。大消费股震荡反弹，零售方向领涨，永辉超市等多股涨停。中字头、基建股一度冲高，中国中车接 近涨停。 港股走强，恒生指数涨1 . 5 8%，恒生科技指数涨3 . 5 7%。金山云、越疆、茶百道涨超1 0%，小米集团涨超5%。 4 月 8 日 早 盘 ， 中 证 5 0 0ETF （ 5 1 0 5 0 0 ） 成 交 超 6 3 亿 ， 南 方 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （ 5 1 2 1 0 0 ） 、 华 夏 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （ 1 5 9 8 4 5 ） 、 广 发 中 证 1 0 0 0ETF （5 6 0 0 1 0）、富国中证1 0 0 0ETF（1 5 9 6 2 9）成交超1 0亿元，均超昨日全天成交额。 | 159575 | 宽 创业板200ETF银华 | 1.021 | 0.033 | 3.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 589630 | 宽 科创综指ETF国泰 | 0.841 | 0.0 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - In March, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (2.62%) > global bonds (0.61%) > RMB (0.30%) > 0% > USD (-3.16%) > global stocks (-4.45%) [2] - The "Terrific 10" index of Chinese tech stocks increased by 58% from 2024 to March 2025, outperforming the "Magnificent 7" index of US tech stocks, which rose by 41% [3] - The A-share margin balance reached 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value, the highest since 2017 [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The correlation coefficient between the Russell 2000 index and the NFIB small business confidence index was 0.77 from 2016 to September 2024, indicating a close relationship [3] - Since October 2024, the NFIB small business confidence index has risen while the Russell 2000 index has underperformed the S&P 500 index [3] - The A-share industry rotation speed reached the 94th percentile of historical levels over the past 10 years as of March 2025 [8] Group 3: Investment Insights - 58% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in a scenario of comprehensive trade conflicts, followed by long-term US bonds (16%) and short-term US bonds (9%) [4] - The valuation of the "Magnificent 7" in the US shows a negative correlation with the actual yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds, indicating concerns over high valuations and liquidity [4] - The price of rebar has decreased by 13.8% since 2023, while copper prices have increased by 4.2%, reflecting differing demand in construction and manufacturing sectors [6]

Core Points - The A-share market indices closed mixed, with the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen Connect Infrastructure Index at 1461.15 points [1] - The index has seen a 0.52% increase over the past month, a 2.31% decrease over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 2.31% [1] - The index is based on the comprehensive index samples of the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Connect and the China Securities 500 Index, reflecting the overall performance of securities listed in the three regions [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include China Mobile (11.6%), China Yangtze Power (8.26%), China Telecom (2.96%), CLP Holdings (2.9%), China State Construction (2.66%), CK Hutchison Holdings (2.66%), China Mobile (2.35%), China Unicom (2.15%), China Nuclear Power (1.84%), and China Telecom (1.83%) [1] - The market share of the index holdings is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50.81%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 37.51%, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange 11.68% [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings shows that utilities account for 43.11%, industrials for 26.78%, communication services for 26.78%, and energy for 3.32% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 1-2月广义财政收入同比-2.9%，12月同比14%；1-2月广义财政支出同比2.9%，12月同比10.6%。 主要观点 开年财政出现了四个典型特征，对应四个启示： 一是"低收入"——或强化全年"科技股友好型"财政； 二是"高赤字"——财政主观发力意愿仍强； 三是"中支出"——财政客观力度有限，重点保障科技民生，基建受挤压； 四是赤字债快、专项债慢——开年财政偏向支持消费，二季度或加码投资。 一、开年"低收入"——或强化全年"科技股友好型"财政 根据预算，今年的财政组合或是" 高赤字 、低收入、 中支出 "，前者保护动物精神（风偏）、后者保护科 技股相对收益，指向全年或是"科技股友好型"财政 （详见 《今年或是"科技股友好型"财政》 ）。 一是公共财政收入罕见开年负增 （-1.6%，预算目标为0.1%）， 一次性因素和持续性因素交织： 据财政 部，一次性因素："主要受部分中央金融企业汇算清缴企业所得税入库较去年同期减少等一次性因素影 响"；持续性因素：《2024年中国 ...