Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **soda ash** and **urea** markets, focusing on their current status and future outlooks [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Soda Ash Market - The soda ash industry is currently influenced by macroeconomic policies rather than strict capacity reduction or technological upgrades, as there are no expectations for mandatory upgrades or elimination of outdated capacities [1][4]. - New capacity in the soda ash sector continues to be released, particularly from natural soda ash projects, with significant expansions expected in regions like Alashan and Jinshan [1][6][8]. - In the first half of 2025, soda ash supply remains high, with an average operating rate of approximately 85%, a slight year-on-year decrease, but actual production levels are stable compared to the previous year [9]. - The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic glass, has seen a significant reduction in production due to internal competition policies, leading to a notable decline in soda ash demand [1][12]. - Light soda ash demand from downstream industries such as monosodium glutamate and lithium salts has increased by about 10% year-on-year, providing some support for light soda ash demand [1][13]. Urea Market - The urea market is constrained by supply and price stabilization policies, with price fluctuations limited. New production capacities have increased supply, with daily production levels rising to nearly 200,000 tons [3][16]. - Urea exports face challenges due to port inspection capabilities and logistics, with historical data showing limited exports exceeding one million tons [20][23]. - The overall urea production capacity is projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025, with only about 10% classified as outdated capacity [17]. - The demand for urea has been growing, driven by high-value crops and environmental regulations, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of about 9% in early 2025 [19]. Additional Important Insights - The soda ash market is currently experiencing high inventory levels, with production-side inventories reaching historical highs, which negatively impacts the futures market [11]. - The urea market is expected to face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 due to various factors, including international political dynamics and energy price fluctuations [27]. - The export quota system for urea is creating challenges for companies, as only those meeting storage requirements can obtain export quotas, leading to potential delays and increased costs [29]. - The price difference between domestic and international urea markets remains significant, influencing export behaviors and market dynamics [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the soda ash and urea markets.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

能源化工日报 2025-07-16 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.08 美元，跌幅 0.12%，报 66.75 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.28 美元，跌幅 0.40%，报 68.86 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.30 元，跌幅 1.76%， 报 518.2 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存累库 0.18 百万桶至 8.29 百万桶，环 比累库 2.23%；柴油库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 2.41 百万桶，环比累库 14.07%；燃料油库存累库 0.72 百万桶至 10.50 百万桶，环比累库 7.35%；总成品油累库 1.20 百万桶至 21.19 百万桶， 环比累库 5.99%。 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/16 甲醇 7 月 15 日 09 合跌 10 元/吨，报 2386 元/吨，现货涨 5 元/吨，基差-1。上游检修增多，开工高 位回落，企业利润依旧较好，海外装置开 ...

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Methanol and monomers are weak, and marginal profits are recovering. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is weakening. Dynamically, the supply pressure in July is not significant, and the overall pressure still exists, but inventory reduction has improved in July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, LP can be taken profit at around 250 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, PP2601 prices increased slightly, while L2509, PP2509 prices decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some varieties also changed. For example, the spread of L2509 - 2601 decreased by 130.77%, and the spread of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 100% [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventories are accumulating. The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%. The downstream weighted operating rates of both also decreased slightly [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Crude oil futures prices are under pressure, mainly due to the game between geopolitical sanctions expectations and macro - demand concerns. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical supply disturbances to the actual impact of trade policies on demand. In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by macro uncertainties. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies, and capture opportunities for increased volatility on the options side [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC futures prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. For example, Brent - WTI increased by 0.90%, and SC - Brent increased by 24.50% [6]. - **Product Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most product oil prices decreased, and the cracking spreads of some product oils also changed. For example, the US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 0.25%, and the Singapore diesel cracking spread increased by 4.43% [6]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: PX rebound is under pressure, but there is support at low levels. PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term, and opportunities to expand the PX - SC spread at low levels can be focused on [10]. - **PTA**: PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and short - selling strategies can be considered above 4800 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is gradually turning to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. EG09 can be observed unilaterally, focusing on the pressure around 4400 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand of short - fiber is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Strategies mainly focus on expanding the processing fee at low levels on the PF disk [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand of bottle - chip has improvement expectations, but the absolute price still fluctuates with the cost side. PR strategies are similar to PTA, and opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the range can be focused on [10]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, and other products also changed. For example, the PX spot price (in RMB) increased by 1.6%, and the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 23.9% [10]. - **开工率**: The operating rates of Asian PX, PTA, MEG, and some downstream industries changed. For example, the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0% [10]. Group 4: Chlor - alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the high profit stimulates high production. The transaction activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and the short - term macro - sentiment is strong [14][15]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is weakly sorted. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the macro - atmosphere has improved, it is difficult to see a significant price decline in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 2.4%, and the price of V2509 increased by 0.6% [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda production rate is high, and the downstream operating rates of some industries have changed slightly. The PVC production rate is relatively stable, and the downstream product operating rates are decreasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [14][15]. Group 5: Styrene Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene has rebounded, but its own driving force is limited. The import expectation is high, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price transmission of some downstream products is not smooth, which may limit the rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and adopt the reverse - spread strategy for the month - spread [38]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry is operating at a high level, but the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Although the absolute price is supported by the strong oil price and the commodity market atmosphere, the increase is limited. EB08 should focus on the pressure above 7500, and high - short opportunities can be considered [38]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 28.9% [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports increased. The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and styrene also changed slightly [38]. Group 6: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The inland methanol market has limited short - term decline space due to the support of centralized maintenance in July. The port market is facing dual pressures: the复产 of Iranian plants is continuing, and the import in July is expected to reach 1.2 million tons; at the same time, the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken the olefin demand, and the port is expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July, and the price suppression is significantly enhanced [41]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.82%, and the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot decreased by 0.75% [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventories are accumulating. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, and the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.50% [41]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The urea futures price has declined, mainly due to the superposition of the expectation of loose supply and short - term weakening demand. The daily production is maintained at a high level, and the demand for agricultural summer top - dressing is coming to an end, and industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures. Although the export policy is relaxed and the Indian tender price has increased, the short - term export orders have not fully alleviated the domestic inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [48]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices changed. For example, the price of Shandong (small particles) decreased by 2.15% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of urea is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The daily production remains high, and the agricultural and industrial demands are both decreasing. The inventory in ports is increasing, while the inventory in factories is decreasing [48].