黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-20 玻璃纯碱：成交略有好转，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏强。现货方面，市场成交好转，下游拿货情绪较好。 供需与逻辑：近期玻璃产量呈现下降趋势。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强， 玻璃累库明显，去库压力较大，价格缺乏向上动力，后期高温梅雨季节不利于玻璃储存，企业降价出货降库的意 向或更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：受碱厂检修增加影响，近期纯碱产量有所下滑，但仍维持宽松状态。目前光伏增量放缓，纯碱需求 提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大，关注后续碱厂夏检情况及年度新增产能投产进度。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场相对谨慎，黑色震荡偏弱 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪一般，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日市场整体震荡运行，期货盘面波动加大。现货方面，主流钢招暂未最终定价。整体来看，受到行 业利润影响，硅锰产量继续下降，整体处于历年低位水平，铁水产量高位回落，硅锰需求 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报5.12-5.16 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 受盘面持续偏强震荡影响，原料锰矿和锰合金现货市场价格呈上行趋势。在原料方面，矿商报价坚挺，市场上低价锰 矿货源难觅。由于盘面强势运行及成本支撑增强，硅锰厂挺价情绪浓厚。但主流钢招首轮询盘不及预期，硅锰厂对现 货市场主动报价意愿偏弱，市场各方多持观望态度，等待主流钢招定价情况。 下周行情预测： 硅锰厂挺价情绪浓厚，但主流钢招首轮询盘不及预期，预计下周锰硅价格震荡为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-0 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

【品种观点】 螺纹钢：目前高炉螺纹利润较热卷更好，而且钢厂整体利润水平较高，生产积极性较强，铁 水产量持续高位运行。而需求后期将进入季节性淡季，供需趋于宽松，供需矛盾存在激化风 险；热卷：基本面方面，热卷供应小幅下降，需求有所回升，库存继续去化，绝对水平并不 高。出口仍在高位，暂时并未受到明显影响。 【盘面操作建议】 螺纹钢当前库存去化速度尚佳，短期或呈震荡格局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。热卷方面，供 需层面相对平衡，但黑色产业链整体氛围偏弱，短期或呈震荡走势。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡偏弱 | 目前高炉螺纹利润较热卷更好，而且钢厂整体利润水平较高，生产积极性 | | | | 较强，铁水产量持续高位运行。而需求后期将进入季节性淡季，供需趋于 | | | | 宽松，供需矛盾存在激化风险。当前库存去化速度尚佳，短期或呈震荡格 | | | | 局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。【3050，3110】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅下降，需求有所回升，库存继续去化，绝对水 | | | | 平并不高。出口仍在高位，暂时 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5400 | 0 | 50 | 5660 | 主力合约 | 5704 | 44 | 222 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5658 | 28 | 148 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | 5780 | 05合约 | 5596 | 46 | 86 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5618 | 38 | 158 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -44 | -44 | -172 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 56 ...

研究所 铁合金加速减产 等待煤价企稳 ----国信期货铁合金周报 行情回顾·要闻概览 研究所 2025年5月18日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 总结及后市展望 1 行情回顾 2 锰硅产业链概况 3 硅铁产业链概况 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 行情回顾·锰硅产业链价格变动 研究所 数据来源：WIND、Mysteel、钢之家、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布。双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消91%的反制 关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。其中，国务院关税税则委员 会2025年第4号公告规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to tightening supply and improved market sentiment, despite ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Manganese silicon supply has tightened significantly, with production cuts initiated by manufacturers since mid-March due to long-term losses. As of May 16, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises dropped to 33.60%, with daily output at 23,250 tons, marking a decline of 17.93 percentage points and 6,230 tons from previous highs [2]. - The number of operating manganese silicon enterprises decreased from 98 in March to approximately 76, a reduction of 22.45%, and the number of operational furnaces fell from 218 to around 170, a decrease of 22.02%, indicating an ongoing trend of production cuts [2]. - Despite the tightening supply, new production capacity is still being released, and the overall supply surplus in the industry remains unchanged. If profit margins improve, companies may resume production increases [2]. Demand Trends - Demand for manganese silicon is weakening, primarily due to a slowdown in steel production activities. As of May 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 steel mills fell to 84.15% and 91.76%, respectively, with weekly steel output at 8.6835 million tons, translating to a manganese silicon weekly demand of 125,600 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks [3]. - Steel mills are exhibiting cautious purchasing behavior, with bidding prices reported at 5,700 yuan per ton, below market expectations, reflecting reduced demand for manganese silicon [3]. - The weakening demand is attributed to two main factors: pressure on steel mill profitability due to low steel prices and the seasonal downturn in steel demand, compounded by ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and limited growth in infrastructure investment [3]. Cost Pressures - Manganese silicon production cuts are primarily driven by long-term losses, but since mid-March, falling manganese ore prices have reduced production costs, exerting downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [4]. - The reduction in manganese silicon production has led to decreased demand for manganese ore, while expectations for supply increases are rising, particularly with the anticipated recovery of shipments from Australian miner South32 [4]. - Overall, despite recent market sentiment improvements and supply tightening driving a price rebound, ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures suggest that manganese silicon prices lack sustained upward momentum [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy reforms in China's capital market, particularly the "M&A Six Guidelines," have significantly enhanced the efficiency and vibrancy of the merger and acquisition (M&A) landscape, leading to a surge in new M&A cases across various industries [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "M&A Six Guidelines" introduced a simplified review process for M&A transactions, particularly for high-quality companies with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion and a consistent A rating in information disclosure [2]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) has committed to processing eligible projects within 2 working days and providing review opinions within 5 working days, drastically reducing the time and uncertainty associated with traditional review processes [2][6]. - The implementation of these policies is expected to stimulate a new cycle of favorable conditions in the M&A market, encouraging high-quality companies to innovate and propose better M&A plans [1][2]. Group 2: Leading Companies - Leading companies in the Shenzhen market have actively engaged in M&A activities, with notable examples including China Tungsten High-Performance Materials Co., which successfully utilized the fast-track review mechanism for its strategic acquisition [3]. - Other prominent firms, such as BGI JiuTian Technology Co. and Lingyi iTech, are also pursuing significant acquisitions to enhance their market positions and diversify their product offerings [4]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - Companies are increasingly focusing on strategic acquisitions that enhance industry integration and promote innovation, such as Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment's acquisition of coal and power assets to transition towards cleaner energy [5]. - The trend of acquiring high-potential but currently unprofitable assets is also evident, as seen in Shenzhen MacJet Microelectronics' acquisition aimed at securing a complete production chain for electronic components [5]. Group 4: Transaction Flexibility - The "M&A Six Guidelines" encourage companies to utilize various payment methods in transactions, enhancing flexibility and accommodating diverse stakeholder needs, as demonstrated by Shanghai Fulede Technology's acquisition involving multiple payment structures [6]. - The SZSE plans to continue supporting market-oriented reforms in M&A activities while ensuring regulatory oversight to protect investor interests [6].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月18日 ◆ 供应端，废铝供需双弱，合金开工率呈现下移趋势。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺， 回收商持货量有限，流通货源偏紧下持货商惜售，价格偏坚挺维稳运行，精废 价差处于相对偏低位置。废铝挤压合金厂利润，目前迈入亏损阶段，5月预计铸 造铝合金厂趋势性下调开工率，对废铝需求收缩，即原料端处于供需双弱阶段。 ◆ 消费淡季程度逐步走深，下游刚需少量采购。下游订单在二季度存在边际走弱 特征，补库相对谨慎，下游压铸企业采购积极性欠佳，以刚需为主。 ◆ 消费淡季压力下，价格上方承压显著，中期维度来看或仍以偏弱运行为主。周 内铝价受到关税缓和情绪乐观的影响而大幅上抬，然而需求端的疲弱限制 ADC12跟涨幅度。回归基本面，供需双弱逻辑或随着淡季程度更深而演变为负 反馈逻辑，价格回落。同时，ADC12-A00基差或继续收敛，关注跨品种套利机 会。 | 总结：废铝和ADC12价格小幅上调 2025/04 月环比 | | | | | 2025/04 | 月环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...