| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.13） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2969 -6 -0.20% 3070 101 | | 热卷 | 3082 -8 -0.26% 3200 118 | | 铁矿 | 703 -1 -0.14% 724 21 | | 焦煤 | 774.5 0.5 0.06% 910 135.5 | | 焦炭 | 1349.5 10 0.75% 1245 -104.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体企稳，涨跌互现。螺纹收于2969元/吨，下跌 | | | 0.20%；热卷主力合约收于3082元/吨，下跌0.26%；铁矿今日主力合约收于 | | | 703元/吨；双焦今天小幅收涨。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 供应端支撑力量逐渐减弱，本期全球铁矿石发运总量周环比再增79.4万吨至 | | | 3510.4万吨，创下11个月新高，且处于近年来同期最高水平，短期全球铁矿 | | | 石发运兑现冲量预期，同时国内到港量环比大幅回升;非主流矿环比连续较快 | | | 回升，但从月度级别来看， ...

股票代码：300428 股票简称：立中集团 公告编号：2025-049 号 划首次授予部分第三个归属期及预留授予（第二批次）第二个归属期归属暨股份 上市，合计归属数量为 6,143,794 股，上市流通日为 2025 年 5 月 13 日。公司总 股本由 633,352,960 股变更为 639,496,754 股。 年 2 月 2 日进入转股期，因本次权益分派，公司可转换公司债券已于 2025 年 6 月 12 日起暂停转股，具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 6 月 10 日披露的《关于实施 权益分派期间立中转债暂停转股的公告》（公告编号：2025-048 号）。本次分配 预案公布后至本次可转换公司债券暂停转股期间，公司可转换公司债券共计转股 有 总 股 本 639,496,790 股 扣 除 回 购 专 户 持 有 股 份 2,688,558 股 后 的 股 本 （含税）,不送红股，不进行资本公积金转增股本，共计派发现金 214,604,374.18 元（含税）。 债券代码：123212 债券简称：立中转债 立中四通轻合金集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company maintains a stable credit rating of AA+ based on its strong resource reserves, operational advantages, and improved debt repayment indicators, despite facing challenges from fluctuating metal prices and rising inventory costs [2][4][9]. Financial Overview - Total assets increased from 326.57 billion in 2022 to 484.78 billion in 2025 [7]. - Owner's equity rose from 152.95 billion in 2022 to 178.73 billion in 2025 [7]. - Total liabilities increased from 173.62 billion in 2022 to 306.06 billion in 2025 [7]. - Total revenue decreased from 656.47 billion in 2023 to 598.62 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 13.21 billion in 2024 [7][31]. - The operating cash flow showed a decline, with a net cash flow of -2.82 billion in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. Industry Context - The nonferrous metal industry is cyclical and closely tied to global economic conditions, with significant price volatility impacting profitability [11]. - The lead and zinc market is expected to face supply pressures in 2025, with potential price declines due to increased production and changing consumption patterns [12][13]. - Copper prices are projected to rise in 2025, supported by domestic demand, although processing fees are under pressure [15][31]. Company Strengths - The company has rich lead and zinc resource reserves and a complete industrial chain, with significant scale and technical advantages in smelting operations [9][11]. - The company benefits from strong external support from its state-owned parent company, enhancing its operational stability [11][16]. - The company is actively expanding its new materials segment, which is expected to contribute to future growth [19][31]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces challenges from declining processing fees and rising inventory costs, which could pressure profit margins [4][9][26]. - The ongoing construction of new projects may require significant capital expenditures, impacting liquidity [30][31]. - The company must navigate the uncertainties in global economic conditions and commodity prices, which could affect its financial performance [11][12].

伦敦金属交易所（LME）数据显示， 铜库存114475吨，减少2375吨。 铝库存353225吨，减少2375吨。 镍库存197538吨，减少96吨。锌库存131000吨，减少1025吨。铅库存264975吨，减少3775吨。锡库存 2260吨，减少105吨。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 工业盈利：外需敞口与弹性分析 ❖ 核心观点 4 月以来，外部环境出现急剧变化。4 月政治局会议强调，"着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期"。此处，稳企业的内涵，我们理解或包括稳定企业盈利。 因而，有必要进一步研究外部环境变化对企业盈利的影响幅度以及需要的政策 对冲力度。简言之，工业企业（与出口相关）的外需敞口，内外需盈利弹性。 我们的估算表明，工业部门营收端的外需敞口或在 16.2%左右。从两个路径分 析出口变动对企业盈利影响，路径一为影响工业企业营收与利润率。路径二为 影响全社会总产出进而影响工业企业盈利。1 个百分点的出口变动，工业盈利 增速或变化 0.41%至 0.43%。 内需弹性方面，类似的分析估算表明，最终消费增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈 利增速或变化 0.54%。资本形成增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈利增速或变化 0.7%。换言之，1 个百分点的出口变动，需要的对冲力度可能是 0.76%的最终 消费的增速变化或 0.59%的资本形成的增速变化。从 4 月政治局会议来看，最 终消费的政策加码方向为"大力发展服务消费，尽快清理消费领域限制性措施， 设立服务消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's ecological environment department has issued a revised management method for environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strengthen the preventive role of EIA and ensure strict approval for high-pollution projects, aligning with national goals for sustainable development and environmental protection [1][3]. Group 1: Environmental Impact and Regulatory Changes - The approval authority for EIAs of high-pollution industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, and petrochemicals has been centralized to provincial ecological environment departments, reflecting a trend seen in other provinces like Hebei and Qinghai [1][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" mid-term evaluation report indicates that key environmental indicators, including energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, are lagging behind expectations, highlighting the environmental risks associated with rapid industrial growth in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Balancing Economic Development and Environmental Protection - The centralization of EIA approval is not merely a transfer of power but a pragmatic measure to balance strict environmental regulation with local economic development needs, ensuring that high-pollution projects do not proceed unchecked [3]. - The need for clear approval standards and a negative list is emphasized to provide local governments with development space while maintaining strict ecological boundaries [3][4]. Group 3: Capacity Building and Systematic Approach - The delegation of EIA approval for projects with lower environmental risks to local levels is part of a broader reform aimed at improving regulatory efficiency, contingent on local authorities having adequate oversight capabilities [4]. - Strengthening local environmental protection capabilities through training and technical support is crucial for effective implementation of the new EIA management system [4]. - A systematic approach to environmental governance is necessary to avoid oversimplification in regulatory practices, ensuring a balanced and effective management system that supports sustainable development [4].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

| | 20250613申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

免费声明 的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的 公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研 报告中的信息或 意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价. 投资者据此投资. 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明货特定客户及其他专业人士 货所有. 未经广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发. 需注明出处为"广发明货 版权归) 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 V期现日报 投资次渝业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月13日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 12800 | 12800 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 12900 | 12900 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 385 | 370 | ર્મદ | 4.05% | 元/吨 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 2025/06/12 95 990 107404 32785 -642.66 374.84 38.0 60.0 85.51 116850 68125 变化 5 -113 ...