Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industry sectors discussed. Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an upward turning point in market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum, driven by easing trade tensions between the US and China [13]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid improving trade relations [15]. - The rare earth sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices increased slightly, with LME copper at $9,440.00 per ton and Shanghai copper at ¥78,100 per ton. A notable rise in copper inventory was observed, ending a ten-week decline, attributed to weakened downstream demand [13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.75% to $2,484.50 per ton, with domestic inventories remaining low despite a slight decrease in stock levels [14]. - Gold prices fell by 1.13% to $3,205.30 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and easing trade tensions between the US and China [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The report highlights a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 132,000 tons, marking a shift in market dynamics due to reduced demand [13]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [13]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 581,000 tons, remaining at a near three-year low, while the cost of prebaked anodes increased slightly [14]. - The report notes that the Guinean government has revoked mining licenses for over 40 companies, impacting aluminum ore production capacity [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on gold prices, with a significant reduction in SPDR gold holdings [15]. - Economic indicators such as the US CPI and PPI suggest a cooling inflation environment, which may influence future monetary policy [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to supply disruptions from Myanmar and ongoing anti-smuggling efforts in China [33]. - Tin prices have risen, supported by positive expectations from US-China trade negotiations, despite some production concerns [35]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are showing upward trends, with significant increases in overseas prices following export control measures [32]. - The report anticipates a continued tightening of supply due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting production [32]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as supply constraints from Myanmar persist, alongside increased demand from various sectors [33]. 4.3 Tin - Tin prices are supported by a favorable market outlook, driven by demand recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [35].