文字早评 2025/04/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.11%，创指+0.27%，科创 50-0.81%，北证 50+1.97%，上证 50-0.08%，沪深 300+0.01%， 中证 500+0.07%，中证 1000-0.13%，中证 2000-0.20%，万得微盘-0.02%。两市合计成交 9147 亿，较上 一日-848 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国常会：研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展。 2、白宫将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机，特朗普称 1 个月内会与中国达成协议。 3、特朗普又喊话降息，白宫顾问承认在研究解雇鲍威尔。 资金面：融资额-87.08 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+2.60bp 至 1.6600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.10bp 至 3.0824%，十年期国债利率-0.27bp 至 1.6490%，信用利差+0.17bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率+5.00bp 至 4.34%，中美利差-5.27bp 至-269bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.26，中证 5 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 据新华社，会议指出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质 量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商 务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推 责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国 家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减 产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据 显示， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Tariff expectations intensify risk - averse trading. Overseas, tariff disturbances increase market risk - averse sentiment. Domestically, the economy may cool down in Q2. Trump's tariff increase expectations disrupt global risk assets, and the bond market pressure will weaken compared to March [2][3]. - Gold prices hit a new high due to concerns about US tariffs triggering inflation and hindering economic growth. Silver prices are weak due to the decline in copper prices. The short - term gold price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed after the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term. The US economic stagflation risk is rising, and the global economic slowdown expectation is strengthened. The copper market's fundamental tightness at the mine end remains unchanged, but the current trading focus is on overseas trade situations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tariff uncertainties. Although the fundamentals support is still good, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak as the market supply is still abundant, and there is no large - scale maintenance or production reduction in the short term [10][11]. - Zinc prices have fallen significantly. The approaching of the equal - tariff policy makes the market trading sentiment cautious, and the zinc price is expected to remain weak before the tariff is implemented [12]. - Lead prices are weakly sorted due to weak supply and demand. The short - term lead price will fluctuate around the macro - sentiment and is expected to be weakly adjusted [13]. - Tin prices are supported by supply - side tightening expectations, but the approaching of Trump's tariff increases macro - risks. Short - term chasing of high prices should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the situation in Myanmar [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are bottom - oscillating. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of the spot market, and the short - term price is expected to continue to build the bottom [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating at a low level. High inventory suppresses demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [18]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost and demand drive the nickel - iron price to be strong, but the stainless - steel inventory pressure may affect the demand for nickel - iron. Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [19][20]. - Crude oil prices have risen due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The short - term oil market may be affected by emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - Steel prices are oscillating. The demand growth rate is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the impact of the main contract change on the market [22]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The overseas supply has increased, and the iron - water production growth rate has slowed down [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The USDA's end - of - month report is relatively neutral, and the domestic soybean inventory decline is slowing down [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate within a range. The export of Malaysian palm oil may increase, and the domestic palm oil is slowly destocking [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major futures markets yesterday, including contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., with details of closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the industrial data of various metals on March 31 and March 28, including price changes, inventory changes, and other information of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal [30][33][35].