1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price changes of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and analyzes the market trends of different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option finance [4][13][14]. - It also covers macro - economic news, including policy changes, international trade policies, and economic data, which have an impact on the commodity and financial markets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 31, 2025, prices of some chemical products like coking coal increased (9.326% increase), while others such as natural rubber decreased (-0.172% decrease) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: For agricultural products, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 0.048%, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.815% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - **Regulatory and Policy News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China interviewed NVIDIA regarding the security risks of its H20 computing chips. New regulations such as the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong came into effect on August 1, 2025 [7][8]. - **International Trade News**: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1, 2025, and is still in negotiation with multiple economies [8]. - **Economic Data**: The core PCE price index in the US rose 2.8% year - on - year in June, higher than the expected 2.7%. In 2024, China's "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [8][9]. 3.3 Main Commodity Market Analysis 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be in a narrow - range shock. It may be strongly shocked in the short - term but will not change the downward trend [13]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly shocked [13]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory, but attention should be paid to the supply pressure brought by the concentrated arrival of processed sugar in August. The international raw sugar lacks directional driving forces [13]. - **Corn**: The price of corn has broken through the lower edge of the previous shock range. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term, but beware of the rebound risk caused by policy support and weather speculation [13]. - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [15]. - **Eggs**: After the price correction, the possibility of a sharp decline in egg prices is not high. For the 08 contract in the delivery month, it is recommended to avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has fallen recently due to the lack of fundamental support and capital promotion, as well as the cautious market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the support level at 13,350 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Urea**: The supply of urea is in a state of phased reduction, and the demand is mixed. The futures price may continue to be weakly shocked in the short - term, but there is an improvement expectation for autumn fertilizers and export demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda has strong support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke are under short - term pressure and are running weakly [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision. The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, but the spot price is relatively firm. Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [17]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is affected by factors such as macro - sentiment cooling and raw material price decline, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is mainly affected by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate with a shock - range mentality [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of the support at 67,000 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Options**: On July 31, the A - share market declined, and the volatility of options increased. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Highlights - Since no investment rating for the industry is provided, this part is skipped. - As there is no clear core view presented, this part is skipped. Price and Market Information - On July 31, 2025, the price of refined naphtha was $608.30 per ton, up 3.23% from the previous day [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the price index of Northeast Asia ethylene was $821.00 per ton, showing no change [1] - On July 31, 2025, the ex - factory price of East China ethylene oxide was 6,450 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price of methanol was 2,405 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the pit - mouth price of Inner Mongolia lignite (Q3500) was 290 yuan per ton, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of GD was 4,450 yuan per ton, down 0.38% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the main contract of GD was 4,465 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,423 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,420 yuan per ton, up 0.07% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the mid - market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,520 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of ethylene glycol was 4,515 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the price difference between far and near months was - 45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the basis was 65 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - As of July 30, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 58.13%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from naphtha was 58.98%, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal was 56.89%, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of polyester plants in the APT industry chain was 86.28%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of textile machines in Zhejiang in the APT industry chain was 58.75%, with no change [1] Cash Flow and Profitability - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from naphtha was - $95.29 per ton, a decrease of $12.09 [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from ethylene was - $103.65 per ton, an increase of $3.00 [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of G produced by MMT was - 1,573.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.79 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas unit was 667.70 yuan per ton, with no change [1] Polyester Price Index - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester yarn was 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of POY polyester yarn was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,610 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,000 yuan per ton, showing no change [1]

Core Views - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, aligning with investor expectations [2][3] - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, prioritizing service consumption, and fostering international competitiveness in technology innovation [2][4][5] Focus Area 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [4] - Policies may increasingly focus on stimulating service consumption, with potential measures including issuing consumption vouchers and upgrading cultural tourism [4] Focus Area 2: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation remains a focal point, with a shift from specific sectors to nurturing emerging industries with international competitiveness, particularly in the domestic computing power chain [5] - The "anti-involution" narrative has been refined to emphasize lawful governance of chaotic competition and capacity management in key industries [5] Focus Area 3: Capital Market Policies - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to support enterprises at different development stages [6] - There was no separate discussion on real estate policies, indicating that future policy directions need further observation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene and styrene markets are in a consolidation phase, with limited room for further increase in BZ processing fees and relatively weaker fundamentals for styrene compared to pure benzene [3] - Suggests a wait - and - see approach for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading, and provides strategies for basis, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [4] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Analyzes various data on pure benzene's basis and inter - period spread, such as pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts [8][12] - Also looks at EB's basis and inter - period spread, including EB's main contract basis and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts [15][16] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Covers production profit data of pure benzene and styrene, like styrene's non - integrated device production profit, and internal - external spreads such as the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, and the import profit of pure benzene and styrene [20][23][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Presents inventory data of pure benzene and styrene, including pure benzene's East China port inventory and styrene's East China port, commercial, and factory inventories [38][40][43] - Also shows the operating rates of pure benzene and styrene [38][40] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Analyzes the operating rates and production profits of styrene's downstream products, including EPS, PS, and ABS [50][51][56] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Examines the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products, such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid [62][66][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month). On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose at a low level, with average on-site discussions and a slight increase in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal areas have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal state, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure on the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. - For the strategy, the unilateral strategy is neutral. Attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, especially the changes in the Sino-US tariff policy negotiation from July 27th to July 30th and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There are no cross-period or cross-variety strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated weakly following the cost side. The news of a 7.2 million - ton PTA device in East China reducing its load provided some support, narrowing the decline in the futures market. The spot market remained quiet with a weak spot basis. In August, some PTA devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. Last week, polyester sales volume increased significantly, alleviating the inventory pressure of polyester factories. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated upwards at a low level. The night - session opened lower and adjusted, with weak buying interest. The supply side of ethylene glycol has experienced frequent unexpected events recently, and the supply - demand situation in July - August has shifted to a tight balance, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Under the resonance of supply tightening and a good macro - atmosphere, the short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of overseas devices [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **PTA** - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [11]. - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 4830, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 8, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.99 days, a 0.13 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing, still showing a bullish tendency [6]. - **MEG** - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 4518, and the basis of the 09 contract is 51, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 46.88 tons, a 2.52 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish tendency [7][8]. - **Influencing factors** - **Bullish factors**: Recently, there have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side, including the unexpected shutdown of several devices in Saudi Arabia due to power issues (with a total capacity of about 1.7 million tons), the continuous decline in the load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang, and the planned maintenance of a 1.25 - million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang in August, which may postpone the restart of its 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [9]. - **Bearish factors**: On the demand side, at the end of the rush - to - export period and during the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [9]. 5.价格 (Prices) The report presents various price - related charts and data, including bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory levels, and price spreads between different contracts and products such as PTA and MEG, as well as the processing spreads of p - xylene [14][17][21]. 6.库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) The report provides inventory data and charts of various products, including PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills [40][41][43]. 7.聚酯上游开工 (Polyester Upstream Operation) The report shows the operation rate data and charts of polyester upstream products, including the operation rates of refined terephthalic acid, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [51][52][54]. 8.聚酯下游开工 (Polyester Downstream Operation) The report presents the operation rate data and charts of polyester downstream products, including the operation rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills in the PTA industry chain [55][56][58]. 9.加工费与利润 (Processing Fees and Profits) - **PTA**: The report shows the PTA processing fee data and chart [59][60]. - **MEG**: The report presents the production margin data and charts of ethylene glycol produced by different methods, such as methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based methods [62][63]. - **Polyester fibers**: The report shows the production margin data and charts of polyester short - fibers and different types of polyester long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY) [65][67][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - No information provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - The current price of crude oil is $578.50 per ton, with a previous price of $580.50, a decrease of 0.34% [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene is $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract is $4469.00 per ton, with a previous price of $4529.00, an increase of 1.32% [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is $4580.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester is $8600.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of polyester staple fiber is $6600.00 per ton; the price of bottle - grade chips is $6010.00 per ton, with a previous price of $6080.00, a decrease of 1.1% [1] Operating Rate and Load Rate - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol is 58.98%; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 94.94% [1] - The load rate of the PTA polyester industry factory is 86.66%, and the load rate of the weaving machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA chain is 58.63% [1] Other Information - The external - market price of oil - based ethylene glycol is $832.1 per ton; the external - market price of ethylene - based ethylene glycol is $966.1 per ton [1] - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method is $1594.03 per ton, with a previous value of $1687.46, a decrease of $93.43 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]