Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, most FOMC voters this year are more inclined to cut interest rates after July, and the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment. China's manufacturing PMI has risen slightly, and the economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. In general, the off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. For iron ore, the recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on prices, while the relatively high iron - making water in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, although the short - term market sentiment is improving, the fundamentals still point downward. For industrial silicon, although there is a short - term rebound, it still faces the problem of oversupply. For glass and soda ash, the medium - term supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the prices are expected to be weak [3][6][10][11][13][15][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.066%) from the previous trading day, with 18,221 tons of registered warrants, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract position decreased by 18,643 lots to 2.12417 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%), with 67,543 tons of registered warrants, a decrease of 1,192 tons, and the main contract position increased by 999 lots to 1.525709 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment, and China's manufacturing economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on market sentiment, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand, and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 715.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.14% (- 1.00), and the position decreased by 11,149 lots to 668,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0858 million lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.57% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the latest iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the end - of - quarter rush of mines was basically over, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The near - term arrivals decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, with both blast furnace maintenance and复产. The terminal demand was relatively neutral. In terms of inventory, both the port deshipping volume and port inventory increased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory slightly decreased. In the future, the pig iron production remains stable, the basis has been shrinking, and the absolute price has rebounded to some extent. The recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on ore prices, while the relatively high pig iron production in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. In addition, the performance of coking coal may also put pressure on iron ore [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.49% at 5,642 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) also closed down 0.48% at 5,344 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,450 yuan/ton, with a premium of 106 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and the price of crude oil has fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. The reason is that the expected significant decline in demand data has not occurred, and the pig iron production has remained high, which has alleviated market concerns about demand. At the same time, the expectation of interest rate cuts overseas in July has also increased the expectation of domestic stimulus policies. In terms of fundamentals, the industrial pattern is still in surplus, the future demand is expected to weaken marginally, and there is still room for downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. Therefore, although manganese silicon has continued a narrow - range upward rebound in the short term, attention should be paid to the downward risk. For ferrosilicon, demand determines the price direction in a bear market, and the supply contraction cannot drive prices up strongly due to weak demand expectations. Although the current high - frequency data shows that the demand for coils and pig iron production are still resilient, it is expected that demand will weaken and pig iron production will decline in the future [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) rose significantly during the session and then fell back, finally closing up 0.37% at 8,060 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 8,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures; the price of 421 was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has continued to improve recently, and many previously declining varieties have rebounded significantly. However, compared with April 2024, the current market enthusiasm is significantly lower. Industrial silicon still faces the problem of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. The short - term rebound is driven by the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but in an oversupply situation, the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long term. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a suitable position for hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe on Monday was 1,126 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China it was 1,030 yuan, unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes (- 0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.5 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. For soda ash, the spot price was 1,223 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with some enterprises reducing prices. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 1,900 tons (0.11%) from Thursday, with light soda ash inventory decreasing by 4,200 tons to 801,000 tons and heavy soda ash inventory increasing by 6,100 tons to 967,800 tons. The net position of both glass and soda ash had more short - position increases yesterday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, the real estate demand has not been significantly boosted, and the futures price is expected to be weak. For soda ash, although the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the medium - term supply is still loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Tin**: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - **Ferroalloys** - **Alumina**: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - **Methanol**: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - **Styrene**: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - **PX & PTA**: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - **Hogs**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - **Apples**: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - **Wood**: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - **Pulp**: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black metal market shows mixed trends. The futures market is generally stronger than the spot market, with the basis steadily shrinking. There is no strong rebound driver for the black metal sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of coal and coke price rebounds on the cost side [5]. - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are continuously improving, with the spot market gradually strengthening and the futures market resonating upward. However, the spot performance is still weak, and attention should be paid to the cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities brought by the high water level of the coke futures [6]. - The short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, and their prices are mainly volatile, generally following the trend of steel [7]. - The overall situation of industrial products has improved, and the iron ore price has risen. Short - term market sentiment is positive, and short positions in iron ore can be temporarily avoided [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices and Changes**: On June 27, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3005 yuan/ton with a rise of 34 yuan (1.14%), HC2601 at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan (1.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2995 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.98%), HC2510 at 3121 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.94%), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads, such as RB2510 - 2601 at - 10 yuan/ton with a change of - 5 yuan, and the spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 126 yuan with a change of - 4 yuan, are also presented [2]. **Spot Market** - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was priced at 3090 yuan/ton with a rise of 40 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3200 yuan/ton with a rise of 30 yuan, etc. [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 170 (+30), and the coking coal price index was 937.3 (+0.1). In the Mongolian coal market, prices showed some changes, such as Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian 5 raw coal at 731 (+7) [6]. **Analysis by Product** - **Steel Products**: The futures are stronger than the spot, and the basis is shrinking. Unilateral trading can be on the sidelines, and attention can be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. Short - term long positions in the coil - to - rebar spread can be considered [5][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are improving, the spot and futures are strengthening, but the spot is still weak. Speculative short positions should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers can participate in coke selling hedging [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term sentiment has improved, and prices are volatile, following steel. Low - price options can be bought at low prices [7][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has risen, and short positions can be temporarily avoided in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, spread, and ratio data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from June 23 to June 27, 2025, aiming to provide data support for investors' arbitrage operations. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from June 23 to June 27, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 192.4 yuan/ton to - 181.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 23 to June 27, 2025, increased from - 42.70 yuan/ton to - 21.54 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the basis on June 26 was 43.90 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt decreased from 0.1520 on June 24 to 0.1411 on June 27 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., show different trends from June 23 to June 27, 2025. For example, the basis of natural rubber increased from - 150 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread data of different chemicals in different periods (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are also presented, like the 5 - 1 spread of methanol is - 94 yuan/ton [11]. - Cross - product spread data such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are provided, with the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 27 being 2397 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 75 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [16]. - Spread data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of iron ore is - 16.5 yuan/ton [16]. - Cross - product data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 27 being 4.18 [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., in the domestic market from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of copper increased from 130 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton [24]. - LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper on June 27 is 240.67 [31]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented, with relevant data trends and values for different metals [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 increased from - 170 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [41]. - Spread data of different agricultural products in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 is 19 yuan/ton [39]. - Cross - product data such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented, with the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 27 being 1.74 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 decreased from 60.50 to 45.16 [49]. - Spread data of different stock index futures in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of CSI 300 is - 11.2 [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2][3] - The overall sentiment in the black building materials market has improved recently, but the fundamentals still point downward in the long - term [3][10] - Attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support in the future [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2995 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.739%) from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 48966 lots to 2.142812 million lots. The Tianjin spot price was flat at 3160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.580%). The position increased by 14041 lots to 1.52471 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good last week, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal will still boost the demand for machinery, but the intensity may decrease compared with the first half of the year [3] - The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed down due to the increase in production. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulated slightly [3] - The demand in the off - season remained weak, and the inventory was at a relatively healthy level. There was no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery rhythm of terminal demand, and the cost support for product prices [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 716.50 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+11.00), and the position increased by 25675 lots to 679,900 lots. The weighted position was 1.0966 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 33.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.43% [5] Supply and Demand - The recent iron ore shipment volume increased, with a significant increase in Brazil's end - of - season rush and a slight increase in Australia's shipment. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume remained at a relatively high level [6] - The daily average hot metal production was 242.29 tons. There were both blast furnace maintenance and复产, which were normal operations. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the overall demand was neutral [6] - The port dredging volume and port inventory both increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The hot metal production remained stable, and the weak performance of ore prices was mainly reflected in the continuous narrowing of the basis. The single - sided absolute price fluctuated in a low - volatility range [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.11% at 5670 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5620 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5370 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5470 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The manganese silicon price continued to rebound slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 1.00%. It broke away from the downward trend line since February, but the strength was weak. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [9] - The ferrosilicon price also continued to rebound this week, with a weekly increase of 66 yuan/ton or 1.24%. It was approaching the downward trend line since February and encountered resistance at the upper level. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5500 yuan/ton [9] Market Outlook - Although the short - term market sentiment has pushed up the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamentals still point downward, with an oversupply pattern, weakening future demand, and potential cost reduction [10][11] - It is not recommended to buy at the bottom prematurely due to the "low valuation". Instead, pay attention to the downward risk and seize hedging opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 3.82% at 8025 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the 421 price was 8700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 130 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - This week, the industrial silicon price rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 625 yuan/ton or 8.45%. It was still in the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound continued. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 8200 yuan/ton [13] Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved, and funds are looking for low - priced and "story - telling" varieties. However, the current market heat is lower than that in April 2024 [14] - The industrial silicon market still faces the problems of oversupply and insufficient demand. The short - term price rebound is due to the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long - term. Hedging opportunities can be seized during the rebound [14] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, flat, and the price in Central China was 1030 yuan, also flat. The spot sales were okay, and some production lines were restarted [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 0.96% from the previous period, and the inventory days decreased by 0.3 days to 30.5 days. The net position was mainly shifted between near - and far - month contracts. The real estate demand was not expected to be significantly boosted, and the futures price was expected to be weak [16] Soda Ash - The spot price increased by 13 yuan to 1223 yuan, and the enterprise prices were basically unchanged. The number of maintenance enterprises was small [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, up 0.63%. The demand for soda ash continued to decline, and the supply - demand relationship improved marginally. The medium - term supply was loose, and the inventory pressure was still large. The futures price was expected to be weak [16]

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. The double - coking market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term, and the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom. The ferroalloy market is expected to be oscillating strongly [5][6][9][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: On June 26, the NDRC announced policies including issuing the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July, implementing equipment renewal loan interest subsidies, and having 200 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal. In mid - June, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.148 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel was 2.77 million tons, a 1.2% increase [3]. - **Spot Price**: The rebar price in Shanghai is 3,060 yuan (- 10), in Beijing is 3,150 yuan (- 10); the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,180 yuan (-), in Tianjin is 3,100 yuan (-) [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector rose last night, with coal and coke leading. Steel production increased this week, exports decreased, and the apparent demand is expected to weaken. Some blast furnaces started to reduce production, but the incentive for steel mills to cut production is low due to high profits. The steel price is oscillating at the bottom in the short term and may decline in the medium - to - long term [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - maintain bottom - side oscillation; Arbitrage - hold the 10 - 01 reverse spread; Option - wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: From July 11 to July 15, Mongolian ports will be closed for the Naadam Festival, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles is expected to decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.82%, unchanged from last week [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron water output increased slightly this week, and the supply of coking coal is temporarily reduced. The spot market sentiment has improved, and the fourth - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The double - coking fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the near term [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - wait and see, and consider shorting at high levels in the medium term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Option - wait and see; Spot - futures - pay attention to spot - futures positive spread opportunities [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 26, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 872,000 tons, a 19% decrease from the previous day. The night - session iron ore price rose 1.2%, and the PB powder spot price in Qingdao Port is 701 yuan (- 1) [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of mainstream mines is stable, and the demand for iron ore remains high. The current market focuses on whether the weak reality in the off - season can be continuously traded. Considering the low valuation of the black sector and the positive spread structure, the iron ore price is expected to be oscillating strongly at the bottom [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - wait and see [17]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: UMK announced the price of South African semi - carbonate lump manganese ore for China in July 2025 at $3.85 per ton - degree, a decrease of $0.05 [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon - iron spot price is slightly stronger, and the manganese - silicon market is also showing a strong trend. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - oscillating strongly; Arbitrage - hold the 9/1 inter - period positive spread; Option - sell call options at high levels [17][19].