Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 12 products experiencing price increases, 32 seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in early May 2025 compared to late April 2025 [2]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) decreased by 6.3 yuan to 3187.0 yuan per ton, a drop of 0.2% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) fell by 3.4 yuan to 3354.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) increased by 7.7 yuan to 4151.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.2% [4]. 2. Non-ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) rose by 639.3 yuan to 78320.0 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% - Aluminum ingot (A00) decreased by 287.9 yuan to 19665.0 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.4% - Lead ingot (1) fell by 206.2 yuan to 16593.8 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.2% [4]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) dropped by 35.9 yuan to 625.5 yuan per ton, a decline of 5.4% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) decreased by 14.0 yuan to 853.1 yuan per ton, a drop of 1.6% - Polypropylene (fiber grade) fell by 49.8 yuan to 7198.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. 4. Oil and Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 10.1 yuan to 4450.3 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.2% - Gasoline (95 National VI) fell by 149.7 yuan to 8391.1 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.8% - Diesel (0 National VI) dropped by 104.9 yuan to 6913.3 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.5% [4]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) increased by 5.0 yuan to 965.0 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5% - Common mixed coal (4500 kcal) decreased by 13.8 yuan to 506.8 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.7% - Shanxi premium mixed coal (5500 kcal) fell by 14.9 yuan to 651.4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.2% [4]. 6. Agricultural Products - Corn (yellow corn, second grade) rose by 87.9 yuan to 2303.2 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.0% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) increased by 1.0 yuan to 4243.4 yuan per ton, remaining stable - Peanut (oil peanuts) rose by 14.3 yuan to 7566.7 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.2% [5]. 7. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) increased by 66.8 yuan to 1917.9 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.6% - Compound fertilizer (sulfur potassium compound fertilizer) remained stable at 3201.1 yuan per ton [5]. 8. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) rose by 70.8 yuan to 14527.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5% - Pulp (imported needle pulp) decreased by 196.0 yuan to 5960.9 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.2% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the CPI in April showed a month-on-month increase driven by gold, travel, and imported beef prices, the year-on-year figure remains negative for the third consecutive month, highlighting persistent demand weakness [3][4][8]. - The April CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, outperforming the seasonal average of -0.1% over the past decade, primarily due to a 10.1% rise in gold jewelry prices, a 3.9% increase in beef prices, and a 3.1% rise in travel-related costs [4][10]. - The year-on-year CPI remained at -0.1% in April, with several price categories showing weakness, including a continued decline in pork prices and stagnant or falling prices in various consumer goods and services [4][6]. Group 2 - The PPI in April saw a year-on-year decline from -2.5% to -2.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [5][6]. - A total of 22 out of 30 categories in the PPI showed no month-on-month growth, indicating widespread price weakness across industries [6][7]. - The article notes that the decline in international oil prices, influenced by tariffs and global economic conditions, has led to decreased prices in domestic oil and gas extraction and processing [7]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes that improving domestic demand is crucial for restoring price levels, as the central bank continues to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through monetary policy [9][8]. - The transition to a demand-driven growth model is highlighted as essential, with a call for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and social policies to expand effective demand, particularly in consumption [9][8].

Core Logic - The supply-demand balance of commodities is fundamental, with cost valuation serving as a strong support when there is a clear oversupply, while it becomes a mere reference when there is a significant shortage [1] - The analysis focuses on representative varieties from non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy chemicals, assessing their performance over the next 3-5 years based on the surplus ratio [2][4] Historical & Future Analysis - Over the past 3-10 years, only copper has consistently shown a shortage, with projections indicating that copper and zinc will be in short supply by 2025, particularly copper [4] - For the next 3-5 years, copper remains the best long-term investment, followed by aluminum and zinc [4] Cost Valuation Overview - The article provides a detailed table of historical and projected balance estimates for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, iron ore, and crude oil, indicating whether cost valuation is considered [6] - The cash cost structure of copper mining is closely linked to crude oil prices, with significant components including materials, labor, fuel, and electricity [11][19] Copper Market Insights - The cash cost of copper mining is expected to rise slightly, influenced by oil price fluctuations and mining efficiency [15][21] - The current supply of copper cannot meet the demand for electrolytic copper, suggesting that copper prices will not enter a cost-based pricing phase unless a global recession occurs [20][22] Aluminum Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience an expanding supply-demand gap, with domestic production capacity constraints and increasing demand driven by electrification [24][30] Lead-Zinc Market Dynamics - The cash costs of lead-zinc mining are driven by GDP growth and energy prices, with labor and consumables being significant cost components [31][32] - The cash cost structure indicates that zinc prices are closely aligned with cash costs, providing a solid support level [37][42] Tin Market Analysis - The cost structure of tin mining is complex, with mining costs, energy costs, and compliance costs significantly impacting overall expenses [44][50] - The global tin mining cost center is expected to rise due to declining ore grades and increasing energy and labor costs [47][51] Nickel Market Projections - Nickel is projected to remain in a surplus state for the next few years, with cost valuation becoming more significant post-2026 as production growth slows [52][57] Iron Ore and Crude Oil Cost Structures - The cost structure of iron ore mining varies significantly by region, with Australian and Brazilian operations generally having lower costs compared to Chinese operations [61][66] - Crude oil extraction costs are influenced by geological conditions and regional policies, with significant variations across different countries [78][80]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.13） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3079 27 0.88% | 3240 | 161 | | 热卷 | 3215 25 0.78% | 3240 | 25 | | 铁矿 | 714.5 7.5 1.06% | 767 | 52.5 | | 焦煤 | 870.5 -7.5 -0.85% | 1010 | 139.5 | | 焦炭 | 1447 -10 -0.69% | 1409 | -38 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3079元/吨，上涨0.88%；热卷主力 | | | | | 合约收于3215元/吨，上涨0.78%；铁矿今日主力合约收于714.5元/吨；双焦 | | | | | 今天小幅下跌。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel调研247家钢厂盈利率为58.87%，环比上周增加 | | | | | 2.59%;日均铁水产量为245.64万吨，环比上周增加0.2 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期，带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面，康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度，环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度；联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台，Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度，环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度，锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看，短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下，预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间，但幅度不看太高，后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5636 元/吨，环比上涨 1.55%，主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强， | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息，带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，谈判效果超出市场预期， ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The oil market is entering a phase of validating expectations of a loosening fundamental outlook, with a divergence in near-term and long-term expectations reflected in the unusual "smile" shape of the oil futures curve since April [1] - Despite OPEC+ initiating an increase in production, actual output has decreased, and the impact of tariffs on oil consumption has yet to materialize, leading to persistently low oil inventories [1] - The anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ over the next two months raises concerns about potential oversupply in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Price Projections - The downward price space for oil may be limited, as current price levels challenge marginal producers, and the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continues to decline [2] - Global offshore production growth is expected to fall short of projections, which may alleviate some supply surplus pressures, with Brent crude oil prices projected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel for the year [2] Group 3: Black Metals Overview - Black metal prices are experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with signs of weakening demand in the steel sector, particularly during the May Day holiday [3] - Although steel inventory levels are low, the limited recovery in demand may restrict the ability of the industry to replenish stocks, leading to potential downward adjustments in black metal prices [3] - The iron and steel production is at a high level, but the growth rate is beginning to slow, indicating a possible significant adjustment in the black metal sector by the end of Q2 [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are highly influenced by macroeconomic expectations, but the fundamental data remains resilient, with ongoing destocking of copper and aluminum inventories [4] - The processing rates for copper and aluminum indicate stable downstream demand, although the sustainability of aluminum exports and copper end-product demand is still under observation as the market approaches a seasonal slowdown [4]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：空头减仓离场，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿港口报价上移，锰硅偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of industrial development as the foundation of economic growth, with a focus on reform and innovation to promote quality transformation in the industry by 2025 [1] - The city aims for a growth of over 7% in industrial added value and over 8% in industrial technological transformation investment for the year [1] - The "1285" work system will be implemented to strengthen the "reform to promote, seek quality through innovation" brand [1] Group 2 - The strategy includes enhancing industrial organization capabilities through a "chain leader system" and focusing on structural adjustment, ecological optimization, and integration of four chains [2] - Key industries targeted include non-ferrous metals, black metals, green chemicals, and agricultural product processing, with an emphasis on technological upgrades and digital transformation [2] - The plan aims to attract new enterprises in emerging industries such as information technology, health, and new energy [2] Group 3 - The initiative includes the establishment of a "1+N+X" digital economy ecosystem to promote smart industrial platform applications and AI integration in manufacturing [3] - The goal is to support the digital transformation of 1,000 small and medium-sized enterprises by showcasing 20 exemplary cases [3] - The focus will be on expanding digital industries, particularly in electronic materials and intelligent terminals [3] Group 4 - The green transformation strategy aims to deepen the construction of a green manufacturing system and cultivate 15 provincial-level green manufacturing units [4] - A combination of energy efficiency diagnostics and energy-saving inspections will be implemented to accelerate the green transition in traditional industries [4] - The plan includes a "per unit output benefit" evaluation reform to promote differentiated policies for industrial transformation [4] Group 5 - The city will implement a series of actions under the "Chat City Enterprise Home" initiative to enhance enterprise support and service efficiency [5] - The focus will be on immediate response to enterprise needs and efficient government services through an intelligent support platform [5] - Activities will include enterprise recruitment, policy promotion, and legal services to ensure compliance and operational efficiency [6] Group 6 - The industrial and information technology bureau will pursue high-end, intelligent, green, and cluster development directions while emphasizing reform and innovation [6] - The commitment is to promote the construction of a strong manufacturing city and contribute to the modernization of the region [6]