投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月8日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent WTI | 61.08 58.07 | 61.12 58.07 | -0.04 0.00 | -0.07% 0.00% | 美元/桶 | | રે | 459.00 | 466.10 | -7.10 | -1.52% | 元/相 | | Brent M1-M3 WTI M1-M3 | 0.59 0.74 | 0.60 0.73 | -0.01 0.01 | -1.67% 1.37% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 13.20 | 11.70 | 1.50 | 12.82% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WII | 3.01 | 3.05 | -0.04 | -1.31% | | | EES | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 2.63% | 美元/桶 | | SC-B ...

文字早评 2025/05/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.80%，创指+0.51%，科创 50+0.36%，北证 50-0.46%，上证 50+0.87%，沪深 300+0.61%， 中证 500+0.17%，中证 1000+0.14%，中证 2000+0.74%，万得微盘+1.22%。两市合计成交 14683 亿，较上 一日+1321 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、潘功胜：将下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，并下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从目前的 1.5% 下调到 1.4%，同时下调住房公积金利率 0.25 个百分点。 2、A 股 4 月新开户 192 万户，同比增长 31%。 3、证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、 费率调降。 资金面：融资额+143.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-4.50bp 至 1.6570%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.04bp 至 3.0940%，十年期国债利率+1.76bp 至 1.6458%，信用利差-1.72bp 至 145bp；美国 10 年期利率-6.00bp ...

周三（5月7日）因美联储按兵不动，以及鲍威尔重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动，美元指数走强，最终收涨0.64%，报99.90。基准的10年期美债收益率收报 4.274%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.787%。因市场对贸易谈判持乐观态度，加上美元走强，现货黄金日内大跌逾60美元，最终收跌 1.93%，报3364.24美元/盎司。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上明确表示，美联储并不急于降息。当前经济面临极大的不确定性，尤其是在美国政府正与多国就关税问题展开谈判 的背景下。鲍威尔多次强调，目前判断这些关税将对经济产生何种影响还为时过早。对于未来是否还会进一步降息的问题，鲍威尔没有给出明确答案。他表 示，他可以设想以下情形：今年内美联储可能会降息，但也有可能不会采取这一举措。在地缘政治持续不稳定、贸易环境不确定以及美国今年晚些时候降息 预期的背景下，黄金的避险地位仍得到良好支撑。 综合来看，金价周初涨幅太大，所以周三早间就迎来了一波回调，但是仍然没有改变多头走势，日内还是震荡上行来看待，操作上可以参考3350-3360区域 布局多单，看至3430-3440区域。 因伊朗与美国达成核协议的希望缓解了市场对 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and closing flat. The price closed slightly up 0.00% at 14,810 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 195 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the supply pressure in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas increased, but domestic tire enterprises saw an increase in the motivation of operating rate. With both supply and demand increasing, the rubber price maintained a stable and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and slightly closing up. The price closed slightly up 0.09% at 2,239 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 74 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the improvement in the supply - demand structure of the methanol market was limited, the destocking of social inventory might be coming to an end, and the external supply was expected to increase. Considering the potential macro - risks, methanol maintained a weak pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rebounding from an oversold situation, and closing sharply up. The price closed sharply up 2.40% at 460.8 yuan/barrel. Although the US non - farm payroll data and price index showed signs of improvement, leading to an increase in the expected number of Fed rate cuts throughout the year, the US debt crisis in June was approaching, and the "gray rhino" effect might trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. At the same time, OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand was expected to be weak. With bearish factors dominant, the continued rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices was expected to face greater pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat trend. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons, and a significant increase of 210,100 tons compared with 1.6889 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 29.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 7.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 85.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.09%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.63%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 239 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 87 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 572 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 123,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China totaled 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons or 0.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 35,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 55,600 tons compared with 365,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12][14]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 483, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 23 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.36 million barrels per day. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels and a significant decrease of 10.521 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 25.019 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 397.5 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 468,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Since April 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend, and the market's long - buying power has continued to decline. As of April 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 177,209 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 6,254 contracts and a significant increase of 10,622 contracts or 6.38% compared with the March average of 166,587 contracts. At the same time, as of April 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 106,722 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,080 contracts and a significant decrease of 79,918 contracts or 42.82% compared with the March average of 186,640 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,460 yuan/ton | -32 yuan/ton | 2,239 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | +221 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.8 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | -37.2 yuan/barrel | -1.9 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22][25][27][29]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月07日 隔夜伦铜领涨至9550美元以上,沪铜与美铜涨势承压在前期反弹高点。中美共同披露将在瑞士展开 高层经贸接触。市场关注国内铜社库与上期所库存的快速流出,近月合约间Back悟废在300元以上 继续走扩。昨日国内现铜78190元,上海铜升水扩至285元,且沪粤相对升水强弱转向。目前支持消 费的依然是国内电网板块,空调以外的白电排产开始走弱,同时东盟国家在90天对等关税豁免期内 支撑生产惯性。反弹空配2507合约或近月合约间延续正套。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。 五一期间铝锭铝棒社会阵存分别增加2.2万吨和1.6万吨略高于去年，库存总量 仍处于近年同期最低水平。较高的行业利润继续扩大需要更强的铁口预期，但贸易战阴霾下下游面 临季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的压制难乐观。沪铝在上方块口20000-20300元区域具备较强阻力,这高 考虑卖保适当参与。 【氧化铝】 近期集中检修压产产能超过600万吨,产量阶段性降低,行业库存特降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北有新产能将逐渐有成品产出。长期过刺前景以及接近30万吨的仓单阵 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强运行 | 利空情绪消化，原油震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。而处在 5 月份，北半球原油需求仍维持淡季模式，6 月消费力量才逐渐增强，炼厂 ...

在油价在最新一轮跌势中跌破每桶60美元、促使页岩油生产商开始制定收缩计划之前，美国就已下调了 对今年国内原油产量的预测。5月6日，美国能源信息管理局(EIA)发布的《短期能源展望》显示，2025 年，美国原油日产量预计在1,342万桶，较上月预测值减少约10万桶。该预测并未计入最新的美国关税 水平，也未计入OPEC及其盟友上周末同意的增产。 ...

期指全线飘红，原油系领跌商品市场 "五一"假期后的首个交易日，国内商品市场"绿肥红瘦"，涨跌不一，文华商品指数下跌0.71%，报收于 157.27点。其中，受假期国际原油价格下挫影响，原油板块承压，领跌市场。因黑色产业链终端需求预 期疲软，焦炭和硅铁价格跌幅居前。沪金价格明显反弹，但有色金属板块整体以下跌为主。农产品板 块，鸡蛋价格跌幅超2%，油脂类商品普遍收跌。此外，A股和股指市场高开高走，全面飘红。 谈及原油价格大幅下跌，中信期货研究所高级研究员何颢昀接受期货日报记者采访时表示，供应端变量 是主要推手。 "OPEC+5月会议提前于5月3日召开，会上同意6月再次增产，继续保持5月41万桶/日的账面增产幅度。 此外，会后有部分消息人士表示OPEC+7月会议有可能再次选择加速增产。市场进一步计价OPEC+增产 带来的供应宽松预期，布伦特原油一度跌破60美元/桶。"他说。 据何颢昀介绍，近期中东地缘冲突有重新激化的迹象，以色列有可能针对加沙地区发动新一轮进攻，胡 塞武装表示将打击运输美国原油的油轮。此外，特朗普上任以来一直威胁将对伊朗极限施压，美伊谈判 也被推迟。不过，目前伊朗原油出口目的地主要是中国，在当前中美 ...