1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, pay attention to the risk of decline, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11][12] - **US Dollar**: Short - term shock [14][15] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to operate in a shock - upward manner, and maintain a bullish view [17][18] - **Stock Index Futures**: Continue to hold the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient. Focus on state reserve and customs policies. Without abnormal production cuts in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [25] - **Steam Coal**: The coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy side will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to maintain a shock market with certain support [29] - **Copper**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. For arbitrage, the positive spread should turn to waiting and see, and the internal - external spread should be treated with an internal - external reverse spread strategy [34] - **Lead**: Unilaterally and for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [38] - **Nickel**: Expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will still be a large upside space [41] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [43][44] - **Tin**: The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term futures price. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the ore supply will persist. Be vigilant about the price decline risk after the capital boom fades [48][49] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short - term [50][51] - **Asphalt**: The price will fluctuate in the short - term [52][53] - **Urea**: Do not chase the rise for now. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the start time and rhythm of spring plowing fertilizer demand and next year's export policy fluctuations. Try to go long at low prices when the relative valuation provides a certain safety margin [55] - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [57][58] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial instruments and commodities, including macro - strategy (such as foreign exchange futures, stock index futures, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal), black metals (steam coal, iron ore), non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, etc.), and energy chemicals (crude oil, asphalt, etc.). It points out the influencing factors of each market, such as geopolitical events, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [11][14][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - CME will raise the performance margin of multiple metal futures such as gold, silver, and lithium. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. The short - squeeze trading in silver has temporarily ended. With the poor market liquidity around the holiday and the increase in margin, the selling pressure has intensified. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday. After the holiday, pay attention to the potential decline risk caused by the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight in mid - January [11] 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's peace plan has encountered new obstacles. Russia said that Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, causing the cease - fire plan to stall. The US - Russia situation has new variables, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short - term [14][15] 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US existing - home sales in November reached a new high since the beginning of 2023. Trump is considering suing Powell. The mortgage rate has slightly decreased, leading to a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. However, the future interest - rate cut path is still uncertain. The US stock index futures are expected to operate in a shock - upward manner [16][17][18] 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Index has recorded nine consecutive positive days with heavy trading volume. The A - share market has large price fluctuations, with the commercial space concept rising significantly and the ChiNext Index falling. The expansion of liquidity is the main driving force for the recent market. It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] 3.1.5 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The decline in the bond market is mainly due to institutional behavior. It is necessary to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The port soybean inventory has decreased, while the oil - mill soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The market is concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans. The South American production outlook is optimistic. As long as there is no abnormal production cut in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [24][25] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on December 29. The coal price accelerated its decline this week. Considering the warm winter in December and January, the coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Champion Iron plans to acquire Rana Gruber. The iron - ore price has strong support. The decline risk of molten iron has slowed down, and the downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment may increase slightly. However, the market's expectation for the post - holiday demand is still cautious, and the iron - ore price is expected to maintain a shock market [29] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - end predicts the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,400/ton. The Khoemacau copper mine expansion project has been approved. The copper price has significantly corrected. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][32] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The import and export tariffs of zinc products in 2026 remain unchanged. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline. The zinc price mainly fluctuates with the macro situation. In the medium - term, it is still in an upward - prone state. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [33][34] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Tianneng and Chaowei have launched sodium - ion batteries. The import tariffs of lead - acid batteries in some countries will be reduced in 2026. The lead price has limited upward space. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading strategy [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The social inventory of refined nickel remains high, and the market trading has become lighter. The RKAB quota and the pricing of cobalt at the mine end may support the nickel price. However, it is expected to return to a shock trend [39][40][41] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - reduction maintenance on some lithium - iron - phosphate production lines. The lithium - carbonate price may have short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [42][43][44] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The export tax rates of tin - related products will be adjusted in 2026. The inventory of tin has increased. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term price, and the long - term supply uncertainty persists [45][46][48] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude - oil inventory has slightly increased. The oil price has rebounded due to the geopolitical conflict. The supply is relatively abundant, and the global inventory pressure is large in the off - peak demand season [50][51] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social warehouses has decreased. In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to operate stably [52][53] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The urea price has fluctuated strongly recently. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand is mainly from the trading link. Do not chase the rise for now, and pay attention to relevant factors after the Spring Festival [54][55] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The styrene price has been running strongly recently. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [56][57][58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus in 2026, with prices likely to continue oscillating during the holiday period [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a slight strengthening in the low - sulfur segment and some support in the high - sulfur segment. Short - term prices of FU and LU are likely to fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may remain stable and rise [1][3]. - The asphalt price is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand. The downward price space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - In the polyester market, the upstream PX and TA have positive expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited. The ethylene glycol price may face pressure due to high domestic production and potential over - supply [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as the end of the domestic production season, increased overseas supply, and weak downstream demand [5]. - The methanol price is likely to maintain bottom - level oscillations due to factors such as the decline in Iranian supply and the weakening of MTO demand [7]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamental drivers and large inventory transfer pressure, and is expected to show an oscillating performance [7]. - The PVC price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations due to high - level supply oscillations and weak domestic demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures were closed for the Christmas holiday. SC2602 closed at 444.7 yuan/barrel, up 1.7 yuan/barrel or 0.38%. Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. The global oil market is balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective. ING believes there will be an oil surplus in 2026, and the oil price is expected to oscillate during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose 0.61% to 2489 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.33% to 3016 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) week - on - week. The low - sulfur market strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market had some support. The arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market may decline in December, and the supply in Asia may be sufficient from January to February. The high - sulfur market has good downstream demand support. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may rise [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 rose 0.17% to 2995 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The weekly shipment increased by 15.4%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month but increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The cost is supported due to the tense US - Venezuela relationship, but the terminal demand is weak. The price downward space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5152 yuan/ton, up 1.14%; EG2605 closed at 3818 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PX futures contract 603 closed at 7358 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China reduced its load, and a 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted. The ethylene glycol start - up load in mainland China is 72.15% (up 0.18% week - on - week), and the polyester load is around 89.7%. The demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 80 yuan/ton to 15730 yuan/ton, and the NR contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 12695 yuan/ton, while the butadiene rubber BR contract fell 110 yuan/ton to 11285 yuan/ton. Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased by 4.6% year - on - year in the first 11 months, and exports to China increased by 24%. The rubber price followed the rise of the macro - commodity sentiment. The domestic production season ended, overseas supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the Taicang spot price was 2145 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the production is oscillating at a high level. Iranian supply remains low. The Ningbo Fude device is under maintenance, and the MTO device start - up rate in East China has decreased. The inventory may fluctuate, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the East China拉丝 price was 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton. The production profit of various types of polyolefins is negative. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the East China PVC market held firm, the North China market declined slightly, and the South China market had individual price increases. Some plants plan to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The domestic real - estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. The price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. Russia will continue to work within the OPEC+ framework, and the global oil market is balanced [11]. - US Coast Guard is unable to seize an oil tanker related to Venezuela due to a shortage of professional staff and will wait for more personnel to arrive [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, and others [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][22][23][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, and others [32][35][36][38][40][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, and other contracts [44][45][46][47][50][51][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63][64][65]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene, PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [73][74][75][76].

Oil Market - WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed higher, with SC2602 at 444.7 CNY/barrel, up 1.7 CNY/barrel, a 0.38% increase [12] - Russia's oil and condensate production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons, or about 10.32 million barrels per day, for 2024 [12] - ING forecasts an oil surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day by 2026 due to OPEC+ gradually lifting supply cuts [12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 0.61% to 2489 CNY/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2603 increased by 0.33% to 3016 CNY/ton [13] - Fujairah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) to 10.681 million barrels [13] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to see a decline in imports from Western markets for the first time in three months, providing some support [13] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2602 increased by 0.17% to 2995 CNY/ton [14] - Domestic asphalt production is projected to be 2 million tons in January 2026, a decrease of 15.8 thousand tons (7.3%) month-on-month [14] - Despite strong cost support due to geopolitical tensions, weak terminal demand is hindering refinery shipments [14] Rubber - The main contract for rubber RU2605 rose by 80 CNY/ton to 15730 CNY/ton, while NR main contract also increased by 80 CNY/ton to 12695 CNY/ton [15] - Thailand's natural rubber exports totaled 4 million tons in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic rubber production is entering a cessation period, with expectations of continued raw material price declines [15] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5152 CNY/ton, up 1.14%, while PX futures closed at 7358 CNY/ton, up 0.88% [16] - The operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 72.15%, a slight increase of 0.18% [16] - Demand is in a seasonal downturn, with limited price support expected for PX and TA [16] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2145 CNY/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from 246 to 250 USD/ton [17] - Domestic production remains stable at high levels, while Iranian supply is low [17] - The overall demand for methanol is expected to weaken, leading to price stability at the bottom [17] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6050 and 6250 CNY/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [18] - PE prices have decreased compared to last week, with HDPE at 7011 CNY/ton, down 177 CNY/ton [18] - Overall, the polyolefin market is expected to maintain a volatile performance due to weak fundamentals [18] PVC - PVC prices in East China are stable, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4440 to 4580 CNY/ton [19] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, leading to a gradual decrease in demand for pipes and profiles [19] - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with prices stabilizing at the bottom [19] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1740 CNY/ton, a 0.46% increase [20] - The industry daily production is at 193,200 tons, with a slight increase of 130 tons [20] - Market expectations for January's pricing results and export policy changes are influencing price stability [20] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1184 CNY/ton, a 0.51% increase [21] - Industry operating rates and production have decreased, while inventory levels are also declining [21] - The market is entering a phase of negotiation, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [21] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1047 CNY/ton, a 0.38% increase [22] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market is 1076 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [22] - The market is experiencing a balance of supply and demand, with limited driving forces for price movements [22]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Baoli International (SZ 300135) held its seventh second board meeting on December 24, 2025, to review proposals regarding the formulation and revision of certain governance systems [1] - As of the report date, Baoli International's market capitalization is 3.5 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Baoli International's revenue composition is as follows: the asphalt industry accounts for 97.0%, while general aviation accounts for 3.0% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the analyzed energy - chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise. WTI February contract closed up $0.37 to $58.38 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent February contract closed up $0.31 to $62.38 per barrel (0.50% increase), and SC2602 closed at 442.3 yuan per barrel, up 0.6 yuan per barrel (0.14% increase). The total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 3 to 545, but was still 44 less than the same period last year (7.5% decrease). The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected, and geopolitical factors led to a slight increase in oil prices. With the Christmas holiday approaching, trading volume will be light [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. In November, China's bonded marine fuel oil exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while imports increased significantly month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market had some support. The arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December, but may rebound in January [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost of asphalt was strongly supported, but terminal demand was weak, and refinery shipments were blocked. Considering limited supply increase and low inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.83%, EG2605 fell 3%. PX futures rose 0.61%. Polyester production cuts are being implemented, demand is in the off - season, and the demand for raw materials has decreased. It is expected that PX and TA prices will rebound in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol prices is high [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance. In November, EU passenger car sales increased, and global natural rubber production and consumption decreased. Domestic rubber production entered the off - season, overseas raw material supply is expected to increase, downstream demand weakened at the end of the year, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. The domestic production of methanol was at a high level, and Iranian supply was low. The demand from MTO devices decreased. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply will remain high, and downstream orders and production started to weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will show an oscillatory and weakening trend [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down, leading to a decline in the demand for pipes and profiles. It is expected that PVC prices will oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than Q2 and market expectations, mainly due to increased consumer spending, exports, and government spending [11]. - The US will keep the oil on the seized tanker, which may be sold or used for strategic reserves. Although Venezuela's exports are threatened, its oil exports are still higher than recent levels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][23][25][27][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][32][33][36][37][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][45][47][51][54][57][59]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [61][63][65][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [73]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich research experience and multiple awards [74]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements and media exposure [75]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with industry experience and relevant awards [76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - On Monday, the price center of crude oil shifted upwards, with WTI February contract rising by $1.49 to $58.01 per barrel (2.64% increase), Brent February contract rising by $1.60 to $62.07 per barrel (2.65% increase), and SC2601 closing at 439.7 yuan per barrel (1.71% increase). China's crude oil imports in November 2025 were 50.891 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The geopolitical situation has heated up, pushing up oil prices [1]. - The fuel oil market showed an increase on Monday. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market also had some support. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December and may rebound in January. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by downstream demand [2]. - The asphalt price increased on Monday. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost - side support is strong, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering the limited supply increase and low factory inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - In the polyester market, TA605 rose by 3.24% and EG2605 fell by 0.08%. Some MEG and PTA devices have restarted or are expected to restart. The demand is in the off - season, and although the upstream has good expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, the terminal demand support for prices is limited [2][4]. - In the rubber market, on Monday, the main contract of natural rubber showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased. Domestic rubber production has entered the off - cutting period, overseas raw materials are expected to increase, and downstream demand weakens at the end of the year, so the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - The methanol market showed a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply of domestic overhaul devices is stable at a high level, and the Iranian supply remains low. The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the inventory may fluctuate in the future [6]. - The polyolefin market is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The production will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening [6]. - The PVC market is expected to be at the bottom and oscillate. The supply is expected to decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down as the real estate construction slows down [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose, and China's crude oil imports increased. The geopolitical situation, including the Russia - Ukraine issue and the US - Venezuela issue, has an impact on oil prices, and the short - term rhythm needs attention [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply may change, and the high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by demand. The absolute price may follow the oil price, and the cracking spread may remain stable and rise [2]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price increased. The cost - side is supported by geopolitics, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering supply and inventory, the downward space is limited, and it may follow the oil price [2]. - **Polyester**: The price of TA605 rose, and EG2605 fell slightly. Some devices have restarted, the demand is in the off - season, and the price of PX and TA may rebound in the short - term with limited space, while the upward pressure on the ethylene glycol price is high [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of different rubber varieties showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and considering production and demand, the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestic supply is stable at a high level, Iranian supply is low, MTO demand weakens, and inventory may fluctuate [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to be weak and oscillating. Production remains high, and downstream demand weakens [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply may decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Base - price Information**: The report provides the base - price data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including the spot price, futures price, base price, base - price rate, and their changes compared with previous periods. For example, the base price of crude oil (SC) was - 8.76 yuan per barrel, and the base - price rate was - 2.02% [9]. 3.3 Market News - **Geopolitical News**: The Russia - Ukraine issue is still being watched. The tripartite meeting between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has not been seriously discussed, and Ukraine launched a drone attack on a Russian - related oil tanker. The US Coast Guard is chasing an oil tanker near Venezuela, and the US has announced a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **Main Contract Base Price**: The base - price charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., are presented, showing the base - price changes over time [30][32][35] - **Inter - period Contract Price Difference**: The price - difference charts of inter - period contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc., are provided, showing the price - difference changes between different contracts [43][44][45] - **Inter - variety Price Difference**: The price - difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external price difference, fuel oil high - low sulfur price difference, etc., are shown [60][62][65] - **Production Profit**: The production - profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Research Team Members**: The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences. For example, Zhong Meiyan is the assistant director and energy - chemical director, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market [73]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].