1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View Glass - The medium - term adjustment may not be over, and the market still faces pressure. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations triggered a rebound, but factors such as weak basis, delivery, and high inventory have led to a market decline. The forward 01 contract has a large premium, causing short - term disturbances, but the market remains under pressure before the delivery pressure ends [2]. 纯碱 - The short - term trend is weak and volatile, and the downward pressure persists. The previous overcrowded short positions in the futures market led to a short - squeeze rally. The strengthening basis during the short - term decline is unfavorable for futures prices. The supply side is not actively reducing production, and the market is under pressure [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - As of August 14, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 7th. The daily loss of float glass is 40,450 tons, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, both unchanged from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting capacity of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting capacity of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 8,630 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but there may be a certain - scale production cut in the fourth quarter if demand is poor in the third quarter [17][18]. Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders in the southern region have not improved significantly, and the deep - processing profit is still low. Attention should be paid to the phased restrictions on deep - processing operations in some northern regions [2]. Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.426 million heavy cases, a 2.55% increase from the previous period and a 5.94% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The overall sales rate in North China has increased, but the inventory has increased. In Central China, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and the inventory has continued to rise [2]. Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week, with a slower decline rate. The price in Shahe is around 1,140 - 1,180 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region it is 1,040 - 1,140 yuan/ton (down 40 - 80 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some large manufacturers' prices are 1,240 - 1,280 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The spot market is weaker recently, the basis has slightly weakened, and the inter - month spread is weak. The profit from petroleum coke is about 87 yuan/ton, and the profits from natural gas and coal fuels are about - 171 and 92 yuan/ton respectively [30][33]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,100 - 1,150 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous period [51][53]. Capacity and Inventory - Recently, supply has been reduced, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week and a 16.71% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 25.32 days, a 5.98% decrease from the previous period, with a narrowing decline rate [54][55][59]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production is 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate is 87.2%, up from 85.4% last week. Some plants are under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have plans for future maintenance [3][64][66]. Inventory - The inventory is about 1.894 million tons. The light soda ash inventory is 760,000 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1338 million tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [4][68]. Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction by traders is greater than that by manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,280 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 9 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 34.4 yuan/ton [78][80][84]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,300 - 1,330 and lower support at 1,180 - 1,200. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week's main concerns include a significant rebound in Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales due to the new property market policies, a slight decline in rebar and cement prices as anti - involution cools down, stronger travel momentum during the summer with subway rides and domestic flights outperforming seasonality, and a sharp increase in vegetable prices due to extreme weather [2]. - New home sales continued to weaken this week, while second - hand home sales rebounded. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were significantly weaker than the same period last year, while second - hand home sales areas in key cities increased month - on - month and were stronger than last year. Beijing's new and second - hand housing sales showed a significant rebound [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Rebar prices decreased slightly, glass futures prices rose significantly, cement price index decreased slightly, and asphalt prices decreased slightly [2]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [2]. - In terms of consumption, travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, and oil prices decreased [2]. - In terms of exports, SCFI and BDI declined this week, and the market supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, with the shipping market continuing to adjust [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Real Estate Sales - New home sales in first - and second - tier cities weakened. From August 8th to August 14th, new home transactions showed a mixed performance month - on - month and a significant decline year - on - year. New home transaction areas in first - and second - tier cities were much weaker than last year, while those in third - tier cities were much stronger than the previous period and last year. Wind's 20 - city transaction area increased 2.83% month - on - month and decreased 12.96% year - on - year [7]. - Second - hand home sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In key cities, the transaction areas increased month - on - month and were higher than the same period last year, with Hangzhou showing a significant 15% increase [27]. 2. Investment - Most commodity prices declined. Cement, asphalt, and rebar prices decreased slightly, while glass futures prices increased significantly [37]. 3. Production - Operating rates showed a divided performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and coking enterprises increased, while the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces decreased slightly, and the operating rates of polyester filament and PTA decreased [43]. 4. Consumption - Travel momentum was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights outperformed seasonality, while automobile consumption and movie box office were in line with seasonality [52]. 5. Exports - SCFI index declined, and BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly [58]. 6. Prices - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased significantly, oil prices decreased slightly, and rebar prices decreased slightly [64].

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Report Date - The report is dated August 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel**: After the coal mine safety meeting, the hype sentiment for coking coal cooled, leading to a correction in the black sector. This week, the supply of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but overall inventory is low, and there is support from low - price buyers. The short - term market optimism has cooled, and the upper resistance for the rebar October contract is between 3250 - 3300. However, due to the expected supply contraction, the downside space is limited, with support at around 3100 for the rebar October contract (around 3350 for hot - rolled coils). The short - term disk is expected to be oscillating weakly [3] - **Iron Ore**: Market supervision has tightened, and speculative sentiment has declined. The price of iron ore was dragged down by the sharp drop in coking coal. The fundamentals of iron ore are currently stable, with short - term supply being neutral and iron - making water production expected to remain stable. Production restrictions have a limited impact on near - month demand. Steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, supporting the price. The price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There have been frequent reports of supply disruptions in Shanxi coal mines. The "anti - involution" in the coal industry will be the trading focus in the third quarter. However, the incremental substitution effect of imports cannot be ignored. The supply - demand of coking coal has returned to a tight - balance pattern. The long - term outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events [29] - **Ferroalloys**: The price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Currently, steel mill profits are good, and high iron - making water production supports ferroalloy demand. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is weak. In the short term, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction [46] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with daily production fluctuating around 106,000 - 107,000 tons. The demand for soda ash is expected to remain weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory has reached a new high, putting pressure on the spot price. The cost has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [56] - **Glass**: The near - term trading has returned to industrial reality, and policy expectations may fluctuate. The daily melting volume of the supply side is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by 7%. The market is in a weak - balance state. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3269 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3314 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3188 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3432 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 3439 yuan/ton, and the 10 contract was 3439 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3386 yuan/ton, in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, in Beijing was 3290 yuan/ton, in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3460 yuan/ton, in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, and in Shenyang was 3400 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 51 yuan/ton, the 05 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 6 yuan/ton, and the 10 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 132 yuan/ton. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 28 yuan/ton, the 05 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton, and the 10 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was 21 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - screw spread was 163 yuan/ton, the 05 roll - screw spread was 125 yuan/ton, and the 10 roll - screw spread was 251 yuan/ton [9][13] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 776 yuan/ton, the 05 contract was 755.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 792 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The 01 basis was - 4 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 18 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajás fines was 879 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special was 646 yuan/ton [20] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making water production was 240,660 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3467 million tons, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, the global shipping volume was 3.0467 billion tons, the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2.4277 billion tons, the 45 - port arrival volume was 2.3819 billion tons, the 45 - port inventory was 138.1927 million tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Cost and Basis**: On August 15, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 222.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1605 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 124.6 yuan/ton [34] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 996 yuan/ton, and the CFR price of Australian Peak Downs North was 203.5 US dollars/wet ton. The ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - primary dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On August 15, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [47] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5800 yuan/ton [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1450 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1293 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1395 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 157 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [57] - **Basis and Spot Prices**: The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 116 yuan/ton. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the light - alkali market price was 1250 yuan/ton [57][60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, the 09 contract was 1046 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract was 1211 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 263 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [83] - **Basis and Sales**: The 05 contract basis (Shahe) was - 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis (Shahe) was 98.6 yuan/ton. On August 11, 2025, the Shahe sales rate was 82%, the Hubei sales rate was 56%, the East China sales rate was 87%, and the South China sales rate was 99% [83][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Core View - Supply side: Rainfall in the producing areas may affect the release of new rubber, and the raw material procurement price is strong. Future focus is on the raw material situation during the peak production period. Demand side: Current channel trading is average, some agents replenish goods as needed and mainly control inventory. Terminal demand has no obvious improvement, and channels are cautious about restocking. Market sentiment has cooled recently. If the raw material volume increases smoothly during the peak production period, consider short - selling at high prices [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton. The basis of whole milk switched to the 2509 contract increased by 165 yuan/ton to - 832 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 16.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 1000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1065 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.47% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 6.8 - ton increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 0.74% increase; tire export volume was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% decrease; natural rubber import volume was 463,400 tons, a 2.21% increase [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a decline of 1.35%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a growth of 6.34% [2]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the main contract has rebounded. Although the market is not optimistic about the capacity clearance and self - discipline of industrial silicon, in the context of the anti - involution policy, the overall operating price center of commodities has moved up, and industrial silicon is no exception. The cost of raw materials such as coal may increase, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon and raise the future price center. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. The inventory has increased, but the warehouse receipts are still decreasing. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and the position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 50,000 lots. Technically, the hourly line has weakened, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 725 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.38%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,750 yuan/ton; the basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton, a decline of 21.43% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 900.00%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 85.71% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a 3.23% increase; Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, a 2.47% increase; Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, an 18.21% decrease; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, a 133.76% increase; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, a 56.81% increase. Organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a 4.54% decrease; polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; recycled aluminum alloy production was 625,000 tons, a 1.63% increase; industrial silicon export volume was 68,300 tons, a 22.77% increase [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 11,700 tons, a growth of 0.09%; Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 tons to 3,140 tons, a growth of 2.61%; Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 tons to 2,260 tons, a decline of 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 54,500 tons, a decline of 0.37%; warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 25,350 tons; non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 29,150 tons, a decline of 0.67% [4]. Group 3: Polysilicon Core View - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices are expected to rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipt increase. Currently, there are news of production restrictions, and future attention should be paid to the enterprise's operating conditions and production changes. The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, consider buying on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short. The position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 18,000 lots, and investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 860 yuan/ton to - 3,430 yuan/ton, a growth of 20.05%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 0.01 yuan/piece to 1.54 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.65% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 860 yuan/ton to 50,430 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.68%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 975 yuan/ton to - 740 yuan/ton, a decline of 414.89% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 tons to 29,300 tons; silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 GW to 12.1 GW. Monthly polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; polysilicon import volume was 80 tons, a 16.90% decrease; polysilicon export volume was 210 tons, a 66.17% increase; polysilicon net export volume was 130 tons, a 323.61% increase. Silicon wafer production was 52.75 GW, a 10.35% decrease; silicon wafer import volume was 70 tons, a 15.29% decrease; silicon wafer export volume was 550 tons, a 12.97% decrease; silicon wafer net export volume was 480 tons, a 12.59% decrease; silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GW, a 0.21% increase [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 tons to 24,200 tons, a growth of 3.86%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 GW to 19.8 GW, a growth of 3.61%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 330 to 5,480 [5]. Group 4: Logs Core View - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side currently remains strong at the level of 64,000 cubic meters. The inventory has significantly decreased due to fewer unloading ports and strong shipment volume. From the perspective of shipments from New Zealand, it is expected that the overall shipments in August will be the same as in July. Currently, short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term demand improvement needs to be verified. This week, the futures market was weakened by new warehouse receipts. Technically, the market is in a downward correction trend. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/cubic meter. At low prices, there may be long - position buyers. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market stabilizes [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Log 2509 decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 809.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.43%; the price of Log 2511 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 828.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.66%; the price of Log 2601 decreased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to 838.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.89%. The spread between 9 - 11 increased by 2.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 18.5 yuan/cubic meter; the spread between 9 - 1 increased by 4.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 28.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract increased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 59.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 78.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract increased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 88.0 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 860 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 7.173, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 1.00 yuan/cubic meter to 817.60 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Monthly Data**: The port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.51%. The number of departing ships decreased by 6 to 47, a decline of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory and Demand**: As of August 8, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters, a decline of 2.84%. The average daily shipment volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Core View - **Soda Ash**: Recent information from Qinghai has affected the market sentiment, but it has no impact on the supply in Qinghai for now. The weekly production has significantly rebounded, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, with obvious overall over - supply in the fundamentals. Recently, the spot sales have weakened. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has remained flat, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, with a further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. In August, which is the traditional summer maintenance season for the soda ash industry, track the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The previous market increase was due to news, and consider short - selling at high prices [7]. - **Glass**: The market has been weak recently, and the negative feedback in the market continues. After the previous sharp price increase, the inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders, and the futures - cash inventory in Shahe has reached a new high. In the future, there may be a rush to sell during the shipment process. In Hubei, the inventory has also shifted, and the middle - stream faces shipment pressure, which will squeeze the manufacturers' shipments. Therefore, it is difficult to further increase the overall spot price. Fundamentally, the deep - processing orders are weak, the operating rate of low - emissivity glass is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess capacity to solve the dilemma. In August, track the implementation of local policies and the restocking performance of downstream enterprises near the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Currently, the market sentiment has declined, and short positions can be held, while being vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by macro - factors [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass in North China remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton; the price of glass in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,316 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.61%; the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The 05 basis decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.06% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of soda ash in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85%. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,452 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.04%; the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.25%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.24% [7]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.24 percentage

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-15 钢材需求不及预期，价格进⼀步回落 昨⽇螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，⿊⾊板块延续⾛弱趋 势。⽬前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进⾏供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重⼤活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强⽀撑。钢材下游 库存压⼒初现，需要继续关注后续⼏周表现。在库存⽭盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运⾏为 主，下⽅空间有限。 昨日螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，黑色板块延续走弱趋 势。目前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进行供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重大活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强支撑。钢材下游 库存压力初现，需要继续关注后续几周表现。在库存矛盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运行为 主，下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比小幅下降，45港口到港量回落至 去年同期水平，供应相对平稳，增量不明显；需求端钢企盈利率小幅 下降，同比依然处于高位，铁水产量微幅回升，钢企短期因利润原因 减产可能性较小，关注下旬限产政策。库存方面，铁矿 ...