khz yuppidicate seems 快看,光伏硅料价格持续 上涨一个多月了!这"反 内卷" 真这么灵吗? "反内卷"政策持续,行情 已经展开。这次可不是简 单去产能,而是全国一盘 棋。看懂政策红利,才能 抓住真正的长线机会! 这次"反内卷"有什么不 -样? 这次站位更高、覆盖面 更广、协同更强,布局 正当时! 份公是 "吃苦"? 企业拼命投入 不提升效率,只顾压价抢市场 最后全行业亏损 别挤啦!电梯超载,谁都 没法上楼! 为什么要"凤内能" ? "内卷"不仅让企业利润暴跌、现金流紧张 更让整个行业陷入低水平重复建设 技术升级受阻,资源严重错配 创新停滞,资源浪费 反内卷不是"保护落后", 1. 新能源制造链 从价格端转向技术端,光伏、硅料、玻璃、锂电池 等具备技术迭代能力的龙头将胜出。 2. 传统周期品 而是"清理赛道",能让好 企业跑得更快! "反応差" 新政事何敢意? 本轮"反内卷"，站位 更高、产业更"新" l 覆盖面更广、协同更 强、导向更长远! 政策站位:从"行业去产能" 升级为"全国统一大市场建设" 纳入顶层部署 主题升级为"纵深推进全国统一大市场" 强调"五统一、一开放" 不再局限于个别 ...

Market Review - On September 26, the main contract for glass futures expanded its decline, currently reported at 1217.00 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 3.18% [1] Fundamental Summary - Nanbo A announced plans to invest in a new photovoltaic glass production line project in Egypt, with a total planned investment of approximately 1.755 billion CNY for a 1400T/D one-furnace five-line photovoltaic glass and four supporting tempered coating processing lines [2] - On September 26, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against colored float glass imported from China, with the investigation period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and the damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024 [2] - As of September 25, the domestic float glass industry operated at a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% and an operating rate of 76.01%, remaining stable compared to the previous two weeks, with a daily output of 160,200 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to encourage price increases in the glass industry, leading to a price rise of 100 CNY/ton among glass companies, with some companies in Shahe also following suit [3] - Short-term rapid price increases in the spot market may stimulate pre-holiday inventory replenishment in areas that have not yet raised prices, potentially driving nationwide price increases [3] - Demand from downstream processing plants showed a slight improvement, with order days increasing to 10.5 days, but overall demand growth remains limited [3] - Donghai Futures noted that the recently published "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by six government departments is expected to positively influence market sentiment [3]

高频｜黑色系商品领跌，"金九"成色如何？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.09.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 反内卷后怎么看煤炭和钢铁 债？》 2025-09-25 2. 《期货｜如何参与曲线形态套利？》 2025-09-23 3. 《信用 | 加税后如何观察信用利差？》 2025-09-22 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 地产销售：一线城市形成支撑 4 | | --- | --- | | 2 | 投资：商品价格大多上行 7 | | 3 | 生产：开工率表现分化 9 | | 4 | 消费：出行动能偏强 10 | | 5 | 出口：SCFI 下行，BDI 上行 11 | | 6 | 物价：猪肉价格下行、菜价上行，油价上行 11 | | 7 | 风险提示 12 | | 图 1： 主要高频指标周度跟踪 4 | | --- | | 图 2： 全国及典 ...

Group 1 - Dongxing Medical plans to acquire 90% stake in Wuhan Yijiaobao, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The acquisition aligns with the company's strategic development needs and aims to enhance its competitive strength in the orthopedic and biomedical materials sector [1] - Yonghui Supermarket received a warning letter from Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to timely disclose equity changes after reducing its stake in Hongqi Chain from 11% to 10%. The company will enhance its compliance training and improve information disclosure practices [1] - Xinhua Jin announced that due to non-operational fund occupation by related parties and failure to rectify within one month, its stock will be renamed to ST Xinhua Jin, with a daily price limit of 5%. The outstanding non-operational fund occupation amounts to 406 million yuan [3] Group 2 - Zhongke Lanyun is making forward-looking investments in high-growth areas such as GPU and AI, holding shares in companies like Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moer Thread, with ownership percentages of 0.24% and 0.34% respectively [2] - Yousheng Co. received a project notification from a well-known German automaker for battery tray products, with a total sales amount expected to be approximately 2.3 billion yuan [4] - *ST Songfa's subsidiary signed contracts for the construction of four vessels, with a total value between 400 million to 600 million USD [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Core Viewpoint - The China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce supports the Ministry of Commerce's investigation into Mexico's trade barriers against Chinese imports, which could significantly impact Chinese industries due to increased tariffs on key imported goods [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - On September 10, 2025, the Mexican government announced plans to raise tariffs on key imported goods from countries without trade agreements, with some tariffs reaching as high as 50% [1] - The affected goods include automobiles, textiles, clothing, plastics, steel, electrical products, aluminum, toys, furniture, footwear, leather products, paper and cardboard, motorcycles, trailers, and glass [1] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Industries - As the largest source of imports to Mexico, Chinese industries are expected to face severe impacts from the tariff increases [1] - The China Minmetals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce represents industries such as steel, aluminum, plastics, and glass, and is calling for affected parties to participate in the investigation [1] Group 3: Government Response - On September 25, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of a trade barrier investigation in response to Mexico's restrictions [1] - The Chamber urges domestic industries and member enterprises to actively support the investigation and necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese companies [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

玻璃反内卷 20250924 摘要 受天然气价格上涨影响，浮法玻璃企业面临每吨约 100 元的亏损，煤制 气成本也增加。石油焦价格下降虽略有盈利，但整体行业仍亏损，企业 呼吁政府采取措施减少损失。 工信部发布建材行业稳增长方案，严格控制水泥和玻璃产能，严禁新增 平板玻璃产能，新建或改建项目需制定产能置换方案，淘汰落后产能， 此政策提振市场情绪，推动玻璃价格上涨。 光伏玻璃产能同比下降 16%，近期价格上涨。未来价格走势取决于供应 减少和需求增加，需求端受房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%和新能源汽车发 展带动，短期内（2025 年 10 月后至春节前）用量预计上涨，整体或上 涨 200 元/吨。 建筑用浮法玻璃市场占比下降至 50%左右，但汽车、家电等领域需求增 长。全国房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%及新能源汽车发展对建筑用浮法玻 璃需求产生积极影响。 房地产新增量不多，市场启动尚未完全实现，情绪带动和建材稳增长政 策对浮法玻璃需求的影响持续性有待观察。2025 年 8 月底浮法玻璃总 产能 12.4 亿重量箱，实际产量 15.8 万吨，同比下降 4.5%，库存周期 26-27 天，供需失衡，行业亏损严重。 Q& ...

建材行业多部门稳增长方案解读 20250924 摘要 工信部强调限制水泥超产，目标将行业产能利用率从 45%提升至 70%，并肯定错峰生产的合法性，旨在稳定水泥价格。但政策执行和僵 尸产能复工问题仍待解决，贵州尝试联合收购模式优化产业结构。 玻璃行业受稳增长政策预期影响，期货和股票市场反应积极，但股价波 动主因是中小企业旺季提价。政策侧重不能新增产能和淘汰低效产能， 对股价影响较小。 光伏玻璃行业通过反内卷停产冷修提升盈利，但面临出口退税下降风险， 可能导致短期抢出口。长期看，国内外优质产能因退税差异有望价值重 估，关注海外市场拓展。 建材品类被纳入政府换新活动和下乡补贴，对消费有边际改善作用，但 补贴力度减弱。城市更新持续支撑建材需求，保温行业引入合格企业清 单制度或利好上市公司。 水泥行业鼓励错峰生产和减产，但僵尸产能复活和执法问题未明。玻璃 行业政策增量少，受窗口指导影响市场表现较好。光伏玻璃需控制新增 供给，关注企业海外拓展。 以及僵尸产能复工的问题，该文件并没有提供详细答案。 对于玻璃行业，该政策对其有何影响？ 在玻璃行业方面，尤其是浮法玻璃或建筑玻璃领域，我们观察到在文件发布后， 无论是期货还是股 ...