交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.11.10-11.14 每周观点 上周玻璃期货震荡下行，主力合约FG2601收盘较前一周下跌5.41%报1032元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1028元/吨，较前一周下跌2.28%。 供给方面，沙河"煤改气"4条燃煤产线停产后，目前产线开工持稳；上周全国浮 法玻璃生产线在产222条，开工率75%，日熔量15.91万吨，供给低位企稳。需求方面， 进入四季度，需求偏弱，个别存在赶工现象，且多消耗前期补库库存，多数加工厂在回 款及资金等压力下，刚需拿货仍是主流；截止11月13日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存 6324.70万重量箱，较前一周增加0.18%，库存处于同期历史偏高位置。综合来看，玻璃 基本面供稳需弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

华龙证券发布研报称，2025年前三季度建材行业营业收入小幅下滑，但盈利能力改善，尤其水泥及玻纤 行业盈利能力大幅提升。展望四季度，预计水泥行业将通过加强行业自律和错峰生产力度，持续推进价 格上调，以提振盈利水平；关注浮法玻璃旺季供需侧改善积极变化，以及光伏玻璃挺价情况；高端玻纤 需求有望带动玻纤盈利能力大幅改善，地产政策的持续出台也有望带动行业估值修复。 华龙证券主要观点如下： 水泥行业：重点研究的12家水泥上市公司在2025年前三季度实现营收2612.72亿元，同比下滑8.98%，实 现归母净利71.95亿元，同比增长134.64%。展望四季度，虽然水泥行业进入全年需求最高峰，但受市场 资金短缺影响，预计水泥需求环比三季度仅小幅提升。考虑到多数地区水泥企业在三季度的盈利表现普 遍不佳，企业改善利润的意愿较为强烈，预计四季度行业将通过加强行业自律和错峰生产力度，持续推 进价格上调，以提振盈利水平。 中长期来看，水泥行业供给侧改革力度加大，行业供需格局有望改善。个股关注水泥龙头华新水泥 (600801.SH)、上峰水泥（000672）(000672.SZ)、海螺水泥（600585）(600585.SH)。 玻璃 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, with Chongqing as a key node, facilitating global access through various transportation methods. The cargo volume and value from January to October reached 272,300 TEUs and 48.962 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 33% and 27% year-on-year. The network has expanded to 581 ports across 127 countries and regions, covering over 1,300 product types [1][11] - In the construction materials sector, four key points are identified for addressing the downturn: low market share and high growth potential, discovering new demands for existing products, developing second business lines, and fostering innovation to create high-barrier business models. The report highlights that the difficulty of these points increases, particularly in innovation [2][12] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and China National Building Material, among others, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets [13] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and its significance in enhancing trade and logistics, with a focus on the expected completion by 2025 and the ongoing construction of the Pinglu Canal [1][11] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 352 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 46.2%. Glass prices were reported at 1,195.35 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease. The report also covers trends in concrete, fiberglass, aluminum, and steel, indicating a mixed outlook for these materials [3][14] Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a performance of -0.97%, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass experiencing declines, while consumer building materials and pipe materials saw positive growth [17][18] Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices showed a slight increase of 0.3% week-on-week, with regional variations. The report notes a general upward trend in prices due to seasonal demand and efforts to enhance profitability [20][23] - The floating glass market is described as stable but weak, with prices slightly declining. The report indicates that inventory levels are increasing, and market sentiment is cautious [32][47]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短期震荡偏弱 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线稳定运行，无放水、点火产线，周产量环比持平。截至20251113， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/ | | --- | --- | | | 日），其中在产222条，冷修停产74条，截至2025年11月13日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，与6日持平。 | | 需求 | 截至20251031，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.8天，环比+4.0%，同比-16.1%。本期深加工订单有所分化，其中北部持有订单均值环比 | | | 略有提升，部分持有工程订单比例有所增加；而南部订单多数持平甚至部分环比下滑，整体竞价依旧激烈。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251113，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6324.7万重箱，环比+11.1万重箱，环比+0.18%，同比+33.61%。折库存天数27.5天，较上期 | | | +0.4天。本周华北地区出货较前期减缓 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - October domestic fixed asset investment data is under pressure, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas business growth, such as Huaxin Cement, which saw a 76.01% year-on-year increase in net profit [6] - The cement price is marginally rising, while the decline in float glass prices is narrowing [2] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines in new and second-hand housing transactions [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others benefiting from domestic demand recovery and tariff disruptions [6] - Companies in the waterproofing sector like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun Co. are recommended due to frequent price increases [6] - The solar glass sector is also highlighted, with companies like Qibin Group and Xinyi Solar expected to benefit from price adjustments [6] Cement Market Analysis - National cement prices increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with price rises mainly in Hebei, Fujian, Henan, Hunan, and Guangxi [2] - The average price of float glass decreased slightly, with a 0.16% decline [2] - The market for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with no significant changes in prices [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In the 46th week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.6452 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year [3] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [3] Company Performance Highlights - Huaxin Cement's net profit for the first three quarters reached 2.004 billion yuan, up 76.01% year-on-year, driven by overseas business growth [6] - Keda Manufacturing reported a 47.19% increase in revenue, with net profit rising by 63.49% [6] - The company Three Trees achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 81.2% year-on-year [6]

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

北京绿色金融与可持续发展研究院院长马骏表示，"转型金融是绿色与可持续金融未来发展的最重要突 破口和业务增长点。科学评估企业转型计划是提供高质量转型金融服务的重要基础。北京绿金院提供 的'转型基准路径'将为金融机构和第三方机构评估企业转型计划提供重要依据。" 马骏指出，"下一阶段，北京绿金院课题组将进一步优化相关研究模型和数据，研究并发布建筑业、房 地产、水上运输、航空运输、陶瓷、造纸等细分行业的减碳目标基准"。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 11月14日消息，近日北京绿色金融与可持续发展研究院发布了《服务转型金融的中国高碳行业减碳基准 路径研究（第一阶段成果）》。基于研究结果，报告建议将2度情景下的各行业转型路径作为我国金融 机构和第三方机构评估企业转型计划科学性与先进性的基准路径。 报告是北京绿金院针对中国高碳行业减碳基准路径研究的第一阶段成果，系统展示了"双碳"背景下我国 电力、钢铁、水泥、化工、有色、玻璃六大高碳行业在2020-2060年间的基准减碳路径。 报告系统评估了转型风险与气候物理风险对中国宏观经济、产业结构与碳排放的长期动态影响，在构建 基准情景（BAU）以及1.5度、2度和3度不同气候温升情 ...