Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market prices increased by 1.6% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 5.61 yuan per kilogram, rising by 7.1%, with cauliflower, spinach, and leeks increasing by 17.5%, 17.1%, and 15.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat showed slight increases, with pork at 18.70 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.2%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw minor increases, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with rapeseed oil and flour increasing by 0.2%, while rice, soybean oil, and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with eggs increasing by 0.1% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly declined, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp decreasing by 2.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with copper, zinc, and aluminum increasing by 2.7%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were predominantly up, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.8% and 0.1%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% [2] - Steel prices showed slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3336 yuan, 3531 yuan, and 3696 yuan per ton, rising by 0.8%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced minor fluctuations, with natural rubber increasing by 1.1% and synthetic rubber decreasing by 1.6% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea increasing by 0.1% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with smokeless lump coal and coking coal priced at 1161 yuan and 1053 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.3%, while thermal coal decreased by 0.3% to 768 yuan per ton [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices slightly declined, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel decreasing by 2.3%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.69 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.4%, with notable increases in prices of chives (14.8%), cabbage (8.4%), and asparagus lettuce (5.3%) [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and apples rising by 3.5%, 2.8%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices increased, with broiler chicken and eggs rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with peanut oil rising by 0.1%, while rice and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.60 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.5%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.1% [1] Production Materials Market - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rising to 779 yuan, 1058 yuan, and 1164 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.5% and 0.6%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.7% and 0.3% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight declines, as 0 diesel remained unchanged, while 95 and 92 gasoline decreased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2] - Steel prices experienced a slight decline, with hot-rolled strip steel, rebar, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3490 yuan, 3313 yuan, and 3513 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight decrease, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries remained in expansion. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds are being implemented faster, and investment recovery is accelerating. - Asset views: With the Fed's actions, Sino - US summit results, and policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability. - Domestic: Policy emphasis on "science and technology self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" has strengthened the focus on economic construction. The economy continues to stabilize. - Asset Allocation: Adopt a "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy, with different asset classes having different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, but there is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap stocks. Expected to oscillate and rise. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and the option market liquidity may be lower than expected. Expected to oscillate. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, affected by policy, fundamental, and tariff factors. Expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Expected to oscillate, affected by US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. Expected to oscillate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost support. Expected to oscillate, affected by special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes. Expected to oscillate, affected by overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors. - Other products in this sector, such as coke, coking coal, etc., are also expected to oscillate, each affected by different factors [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, with different influencing factors for each metal. For example, copper is affected by trade frictions, and aluminum is affected by inventory changes [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are in a situation of weak supply - demand and are expected to oscillate. Some products, such as ethylene glycol and styrene, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and trade [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - The agricultural sector shows a differentiated trend. Some products, such as protein meal, are expected to oscillate and rise, while others, such as natural rubber and sugar, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability [6]. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries continued to expand. Investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - Asset views: With policy announcements, risk appetite has improved, and a balanced allocation strategy is maintained. Liquidity improvement and eased Sino - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets, especially in technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, short - term policy benefits have been fully priced, and the stock index may fluctuate. In the medium term, the equity market has upward momentum. A "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions in October aimed at risk management, balancing growth and liquidity stability [6]. - Domestic: Policy orientation emphasized economic construction. Although the manufacturing PMI declined in October, the economy showed resilience with investment repair [6]. - Assets: A balanced allocation strategy is suggested. Non - ferrous metals, black commodities, bonds, and precious metals have different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [7]. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Due to geopolitical and economic - trade easing, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, and are expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season has passed, and there is no upward driving force. It is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With limited fundamental support, the price is under pressure. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Iron ore: Port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and it is expected to move sideways [7]. - Coke: Cost support is strengthening, and a third price increase may be implemented. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Coking coal: Supply is tight, and the spot price is rising. It is expected to move sideways [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Due to renewed trade frictions, the copper price has declined in the short term. It is expected to move sideways [7]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise with fluctuations [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persists, and it is expected to move sideways [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and it is expected to move sideways [9]. - Asphalt: With the decline of crude oil and rebar prices, it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply surplus expectations suppress the price, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: After rising and then falling, it is expected to decline with fluctuations [9]. - Protein meal: The crushing profit is being repaired, and it is expected to move sideways [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the divergence within the Fed has raised doubts about another rate cut this year, and risk aversion has led investors to seek the dollar as a safe - haven, causing the dollar index to strengthen. Large banks have warned of a potential stock market pullback, reflecting growing concerns about over - valuation, which has significantly cooled global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing sentiment declined in October, and economic growth slowed, dampening optimistic expectations. The strengthening dollar has weakened the RMB exchange rate in the short term, affecting domestic risk appetite. However, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC has enhanced policy stimulus expectations, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and future attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as energy metals, precious metals, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market declined. With the decline in China's manufacturing sentiment in October and economic slowdown, along with the short - term weakening of the RMB due to the strong dollar, the short - term macro - upward drive has weakened. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC, policy stimulus expectations have increased. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: They are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term high - level correction, they are expected to adjust in the short term while maintaining a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe in the short term and buy on dips in the long term [2][3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets oscillated and declined. With a lack of macro - drive, the market is mainly focused on fundamental logic. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products continued to rise last week, it is generally expected that the demand peak in the second half of the year has passed. Due to losses in some varieties, the steel production capacity release has weakened, and with more environmental protection restrictions, supply may contract further. The steel market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. With the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories also decreased. The global iron ore arrivals this week increased by 1.2298 million tons to 3.3141 million tons, and port inventories increased by 167,000 tons on Monday. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to fall further [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot price of silicon manganese declined slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat, and the futures prices also declined slightly. The production of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese shows that the national capacity utilization rate is 42.99%, a slight decrease from last week, and the daily output increased by 45 tons. The prices of silicon iron in the main production areas are stable, and the raw material prices are also stable. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in October was lower than expected, and the US copper inventory has reached a historical high, restricting future import demand. There are concerns about the restart of a Panamanian copper mine. In China, the copper de - stocking is not as expected, and the social inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine intensifies the global copper shortage, supporting the futures price, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The overall market sentiment cooled, and domestic commodities generally fell, which is negative for aluminum prices. The previous sharp rise deviated from fundamentals due to market speculation. With high domestic supply and imports, weakening demand, and difficulty in de - stocking, along with a significant increase in foreign aluminum inventories, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the price rises above 20,800 yuan/ton, short - selling can be considered [10]. - **Tin**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped significantly overnight due to renewed concerns about the AI bubble. The smelting start - up rate has rebounded significantly and is at a high level, and the supply of tin ore is expected to increase. The demand side is still weak, with the tin solder start - up rate at a low level and limited improvement in downstream orders. The high tin price has suppressed physical demand, but due to previous low inventory levels, some downstream enterprises have carried out small - scale replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. In the medium and short term, the price has support below but limited upside space, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The weighted contract reduced its position significantly. With rumors of a mine restart and a short - term macro - negative environment, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait patiently for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined. The weighted contract increased its position. The demand is relatively stable, and the social inventory has slightly increased at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon declined. The weighted contract reduced its position. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The policy provides support for the spot price, but weak terminal demand restricts price increases. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and interval trading is recommended [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The dollar has reached a five - month high, pressuring crude oil prices. Although Russian seaborne crude oil exports have decreased significantly due to sanctions, some doubt the long - term effectiveness of the sanctions. In the short term, oil prices will face a divergence between short - and long - term trends, and the medium - term pressure remains high [14]. - **Asphalt**: With a slight decline in oil prices, the asphalt futures price dropped significantly, and the basis continued to narrow. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure in social and factory warehouses, and the pressure will increase as the demand off - season approaches. Although the profit has increased slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the supply pressure has decreased temporarily, future crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt still has a large selling pressure [14]. - **PX**: As crude oil prices declined, the polyester sector was weak, and PX oscillated. With high PTA start - up rates, PX still has some demand support. The PXN spread has slightly adjusted, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. Short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: PTA remained weak. Although downstream start - up rates have increased slightly and winter textile demand has increased, the long - awaited production cut agreement among leading manufacturers has not been achieved. With new device replacements, the overall supply remains high, and there is a great inventory accumulation pressure in November. The decline in oil prices also exerts pressure on PTA [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices dropped, and the port inventory has accumulated again. Although the downstream start - up rate is neutral in the short term, the shipping volume is low, and the arrivals are at a relatively high level. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the downstream start - up rate may decline. Caution is required before entering the market [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates in the short term but faces greater pressure in the future. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and the start - up rate has decreased in some areas, with limited inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is at a high level but is slightly decreasing without a significant increase in imports and stable MTO demand. Inland, due to increased device start - up rates and weakening demand, enterprise inventories have accumulated, and prices have weakened. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but with the approaching winter gas restrictions, the supply contraction expectation will gradually emerge, and the downward space is expected to be limited, with the market likely to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [16]. - **PP**: In the PP market, supply growth continues to outpace demand recovery, and the industrial chain inventory is relatively high. However, demand has shown marginal improvement, and the recent rebound in crude oil prices supports the cost, limiting the downward space. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure. With the release of new production capacity and the planned restart of previously shut - down devices, supply is increasing. Demand is expected to weaken after peaking in early November, and the weak crude oil price provides limited cost support. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply is becoming more abundant. With the recent price rebound, downstream replenishment has slowed down. Local agricultural demand is gradually ending, and industrial demand remains weak. The export is expected to stay at a low level due to unclear policies [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT January soybean contract declined. With the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a phased consensus, the trade window for agricultural products may open, and US soybeans may strengthen. The USDA may increase the export forecast in subsequent reports, and if the yield per acre is further reduced, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and oil mills are maintaining high - level crushing, resulting in sufficient soybean meal supply. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans will increase, and the risk of future soybean shortages will decrease, which may lead to inventory accumulation of soybean meal and limit its upside potential. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. Attention should be paid to whether China cancels the 10% reciprocal tariff and opens the market - oriented import window [19]. - **Palm Oil**: After continuous declines, palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage, and the risk of short - selling is increasing. Although the unexpected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October has caused short - term adjustment pressure, the rising prices of international oilseeds and crude oil provide some support. As palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, the seasonal inventory - reduction trend remains unchanged. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and palm oil continues to operate weakly [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil continues to adjust weakly in a narrow range, with a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Supported by the rising cost of imported soybeans, it is relatively more resistant to decline compared to palm oil. Rapeseed oil inventory is still at a high level, but rapeseed inventory is running out. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade, the sentiment of traders to hold back supply and support prices is strong, and the basis continues to strengthen [19]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales is gradually weakening, and the prices in production areas are stable, but the intention of traders to build inventories is still general. The situation of a bumper harvest and market pressure has gradually stabilized. The futures prices are running weakly recently, but the phased bottom - range market may provide effective support [20]. - **Hogs**: In late October, the overall slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms was adjusted, but there was no significant reduction in supply, and the average slaughter weight decreased. It is expected that the supply will continue to increase in November, and the pig - raising profit will remain in the red. Before the small peak of pickled meat consumption around the Winter Solstice in December, it is difficult for pig prices to rebound significantly [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - **Aluminum**: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - **PX**: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - **Short Fiber**: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - **Methanol**: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - **PP**: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - **Palm Oil**: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - **Corn**: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - **Pigs**: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]