Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, zinc prices are expected to remain bearish as domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to factors such as the dovish atmosphere of the Federal Reserve, high concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market, and strong overall commodity sentiment [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - only trading position of 234,600 lots. LME Zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 188,300 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,770 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 20 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 70 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 76 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 599,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, domestic zinc ore production was 322,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 0.8%. The net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of - 32.9%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 13.8% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, zinc ingot production was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. The net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively. In June 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In June 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 15,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to June was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 67,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to April was a surplus of 127,700 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was relatively high, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased, showing a bullish trend from the position perspective [69].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and continued to decline, with decreasing positions and strong willingness among long - position holders to close out. Today, it maintained a weak trend, with the main contract price oscillating above 79,200 yuan. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, and the sharp drop in gold may affect short - term copper prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, copper prices have fallen after a rally, with strong resistance at $10,000 for LME copper and 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with decreasing positions. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but aluminum was relatively resistant. Favorable domestic macro - conditions supported aluminum prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industrial - level negatives; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but nickel was relatively resistant. On the industrial level, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which was favorable for nickel prices in the short term. Technically, nickel prices increased in volume and broke through the high point in early July, showing strong upward momentum; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 25, SMM data showed that the average spot premium in Shandong was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Currently in the off - season, weak demand and rising copper prices have further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with market transactions mainly for rigid demand. Shandong smelters have low inventories, and holders are reluctant to significantly lower premiums. This week, the region continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with low market trading activity [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 25, SMM reported that Rio Tinto achieved a record bauxite production in Q2. The company produced 15,644,000 tons of bauxite in Q2, a 6% increase from Q1, and expects full - year production to be at the upper end of the guidance range. Recycled aluminum production also increased to 74,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q1. However, bauxite production decreased by 6% from Q1, partly due to equipment shutdown and maintenance at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, Australia. On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 25, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,180 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,230 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,730 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][31][33]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3600-point mark during the session [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.17% to 1032.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.21% to 11193.06 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.5% to 2345.37 points [3] Trading Activity - A total of 4391 stocks rose while 911 stocks fell, with 113 stocks remaining flat across the two exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange [4] - The total trading volume for the two exchanges was 184.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The steel sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Baogang Co. and Hainan Mining hitting the daily limit, while other steel stocks rose over 3% [5] - The retail sector also performed well, with companies like China Duty Free and Bubugao reaching the daily limit, and several others increasing by over 3% [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector was notable, with stocks such as Longmag Technology and Tibet Mining hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [5] - Conversely, banking stocks underperformed, with several banks declining over 2% [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Financial analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing structural rotation opportunities, with a focus on old infrastructure and technology sectors [8] - The market is showing resilience to negative news and responding positively to favorable news, indicating a potential for a sustained upward trend [8] - There is a bullish sentiment in the market, although some analysts caution about the possibility of short-term adjustments following recent gains [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷情绪炒作缓解，市场关注点有望重回 消费 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 张远 从业资格号：F03147334 投资咨询号：Z0022750 铜观点：有⾊稳增⻓⽅案即将出台，铜价获得⽀撑。 氧化铝观点：盘⾯情绪反复，氧化铝⾼位调整。 铝观点：情绪提振趋缓，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：宏观情绪仍存，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：供需偏宽松，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：反内卷交易趋缓，短期镍价宽幅震荡运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格⼩幅回升，不锈钢盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：LME库存继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

- The total number of FOF products established in the market by the end of Q2 2025 reached 518, with a combined scale of 1661.98 billion RMB, marking a 10.01% increase compared to Q1 2025[2][12][71] - FOFs are categorized into three types based on their equity asset penetration ratio: debt-oriented FOFs (less than 30%), balanced FOFs (30%-60%), and equity-oriented FOFs (greater than 60%)[13][71] - The scale of debt-oriented FOFs in Q2 2025 was 920.91 billion RMB, accounting for 55.41% of the total, followed by equity-oriented FOFs at 416.52 billion RMB and balanced FOFs at 324.54 billion RMB[13][71] - The median returns for Q2 2025 were 1.20% for debt-oriented FOFs, 1.76% for balanced FOFs, and 2.62% for equity-oriented FOFs[2][24][71] - The equity penetration ratio of FOFs is calculated using the formula: $W=\sum_{i}Fund_{i}\times Fund_{-}Stock_{i}+Stock$ where $Fund_{i}$ represents the scale of fund i as a proportion of net value, $Fund_{-}Stock_{i}$ represents the stock investment value of fund i as a proportion of its net value, and $Stock$ represents the direct stock investment value of the FOF as a proportion of net value[12] - The top three actively managed equity funds most heavily allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Dachen Gaoxin A, Fuguo Wenjian Growth A, and Bodao Growth Zhihang C, with Dachen Gaoxin A being the largest in terms of scale at 3.88 billion RMB[32][33][34] - The top three passive index equity funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF, Fuguo China Internet ETF, and Huaxia Hang Seng ETF, with Huaxia Hang Seng ETF having the largest scale at 8.35 billion RMB[36][38] - The top three enhanced index funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Zhaoshang CSI 300 Enhanced C, Zhaoshang CSI 1000 Enhanced A, and Huitianfu CSI 300 Enhanced A, with Huitianfu CSI 300 Enhanced A having the largest scale at 0.98 billion RMB[37][39] - The top three bond funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, Guangfa Pure Bond A, and Yifangda Credit Bond A, with Boshi Credit Preferred A having the largest scale at 11.26 billion RMB[40][41] - The top three "fixed income+" funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Huatai Baoxing Zunhe A, Anxin Target Income A, and Xibulide Huixiang A, with Yifangda Yuxiang Huibao A having the largest scale at 6.36 billion RMB[42][46] - The formula for estimating the net increase in FOF holdings of a fund is: $\Delta N=\sum_{i}I_{i}$ where $I_{i}=1$ if the investment share increased, $I_{i}=-1$ if it decreased, and $I_{i}=0$ if unchanged[44][45] - The formula for estimating the net increase in FOF investment scale in a fund is: $\Delta MV=\sum_{i}\Delta uv\times\Delta Share_{i}$ where $\Delta uv$ represents the average daily net value of the fund during the period, and $\Delta Share_{i}$ represents the change in investment shares[45] - The top three actively managed equity funds with the highest estimated net increase in FOF holdings in Q2 2025 were Dachen Gaoxin A, Huashang Yuanjian Value C, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Jewelry A[43][47] - The top three bond funds with the highest estimated net increase in FOF holdings in Q2 2025 were Xingquan Wentai A, Huatai Baorui Jiji Red A, and Fuguo Industry Bond A[48][50] - The top three actively managed equity fund managers most allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Liu Xu (Dachen Fund), Fan Yan (Fuguo Fund), and Xu Yan (Dachen Fund)[51][54] - The top three "fixed income+" fund managers most allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Wang Xiaochen (Yifangda Fund), Peng Chengjun (Jingshun Changcheng Fund), and Zhang Ting (Huatai Baoxing Fund)[53][55] - A total of 149 FOFs directly invested in stocks by Q2 2025, with balanced FOFs having the highest proportion of stock investments at 32.26%, followed by equity-oriented FOFs at 30.46%[59][61] - The top three stocks most heavily allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Ningde Times, Changjiang Electric Power, and Zijin Mining, with Ningde Times having the largest scale at 0.98 billion RMB[62][66]

Key Insights - The report highlights a cautious approach towards the bond market, suggesting a wave of critical long-short battles as market sentiment shifts [2][3] - The "U-shaped" structure of the US Treasury yield curve reflects a complex interplay of monetary policy expectations, economic growth, inflation pressures, and debt issues [3] - The coal market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels leading to declining prices, but potential "anti-involution" policies could catalyze a valuation recovery [4] - The aluminum sector shows strong fundamentals, with rising prices driven by low inventory levels and increased downstream activity, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [5] - The construction sector is poised for a valuation reassessment due to the "Yaxi" hydropower project, benefiting both directly involved companies and undervalued construction firms [5] - Financial stocks are seeing increased fund allocations, particularly in the banking sector, driven by public fund reforms and strong performance from regional banks [7] - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with a focus on core cities and companies with strong credit and dividend performance, particularly in the A-share and Hong Kong markets [7] - The report indicates a new phase of asset revaluation in Hong Kong, with improved external conditions and domestic policy changes expected to support market growth [8] - TCL Electronics is projected to see a significant increase in mid-year profits, driven by strong sales in high-end TV segments [9] - Harbin Electric is expected to report a substantial profit increase due to new equipment orders and improved operational efficiency [13]