Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [7][8] - Offset paper: Oscillation [8] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8][9] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - No. 2 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - No. 1 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - Live pigs: Strong - biased oscillation [9] - Rubber: Oscillation [10][11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillation [11] - MEG: Weak oscillation [11] - PR: Wait - and - see [11] - PF: Wait - and - see [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, with limited upward momentum for prices in the high - level range. The coal - coke market has a weak demand but short - term support at low levels. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the glass market's future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors. In the financial market, the short - term adjustment is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic. The precious metals market is supported by long - term factors, with short - term disturbances from interest rate policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The light industry products like logs and pulp have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. The oilseeds and oils market is expected to continue range - bound operation, and the agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has specific supply - demand and price trends. The soft commodities and polyester products also have their own price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 3.3232 billion tons, while the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 155.5 million tons to 2.784 billion tons. Daily hot - metal production dropped by 23,800 tons to 2.323 million tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventory slightly increased to an 8 - month high. The oversupply pattern is hard to reverse, and although the probability of short - term negative feedback is low, the price oscillates in the high - level range with limited upward momentum [2] - **Coal and coke**: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. After continuous declines, the valuation of coking coal and coke has become reasonable and stopped falling this week. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Some domestic coal mines are affected by safety inspections, with a slight decline in the weekly operating rate. The profit of some coking enterprises has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises has intensified. There is still a need for inventory replenishment in the short term, providing support at low levels [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and winter - storage replenishment has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Steel prices may stop falling if the output is reduced by more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anti - involution policies are effectively implemented. Currently, the price is expected to remain at the bottom, with no significant change in supply and demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - **Glass**: There are supply - side disturbances. It is expected that three production lines in Hubei will undergo cold - repair in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and the futures price is running weakly. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises has decreased, reaching the lowest level since October. The real - estate completion decline has dragged down demand, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress and macro factors [2][3] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 Index up 0.34%, the SSE 50 Index up 0.38%, the CSI 500 Index up 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index up 0.01%. There was capital inflow in the engineering machinery and semiconductor sectors and capital outflow in the catering, tourism, and retail sectors. There are various exchanges and communications between Chinese and American enterprises and organizations, and relevant policies and statements are also involved. The market is in short - term adjustment, but the medium - term trend is optimistic, with the high - tech industry continuing to grow [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2bps, FR007 rose by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 4th, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. The spot - bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the dollar's credit, highlighting gold's de - fiat - currency attribute. In a high - interest - rate environment, gold's substitution effect for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and China's physical - gold demand support the price. The logic behind the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, with short - term disturbances from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, and factors such as non - farm data and inflation data also affect the market [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it shows a strong - biased oscillation trend, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, risk - aversion sentiment, and economic data [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports last week was 613,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters but decreased last week. The volume of New Zealand's logs shipped to China in October increased by 2% compared to the previous month, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% from the previous month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. The port inventory decreased by 600,000 cubic meters. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price of 4/6 - meter medium - grade A logs has decreased. The supply pressure has improved, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs and weak cost support. The price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [4][7][8] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price continued to show a strong trend in the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood - pulp spot markets rising by 20 - 150 yuan/ton and that of hardwood - pulp by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp remained at $680/ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure, with low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is weak, and although traders have raised their quotes, downstream procurement is rational. The price is expected to return to oscillation [7][8] - **Double - offset paper**: The spot - market price stabilized in the previous trading day. The production of double - offset paper is expected to be stable, with little change in the supply side. The publication tenders are basically over, and orders are expected to increase, which is beneficial for paper - enterprise sales. Large - scale paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price may be raised at the beginning of the month. The price is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by the expected production reduction due to floods in Southeast Asia and the postponement of EU policies. A large amount of soybeans are arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and although the oil inventory has decreased, the supply is abundant. The demand may gradually pick up, and with cost support, the oil market is expected to continue range - bound operation, with attention paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production - sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [8] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending inventory have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply is still relatively abundant. The Sino - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian ones, and the US biodiesel policy is uncertain, resulting in uncertain demand prospects. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is generally favorable, while that in the Argentinean area is uneven. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is high, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and although the demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, the breeding efficiency is poor, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the progress of Sino - US trade [8][9] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs nationwide is 124.62 kg, and it is showing a downward trend in most provinces this week. Due to the lag in the monthly slaughter progress, breeding enterprises are accelerating sales, increasing the supply of live pigs. Retail farmers are mainly slaughtering large - weight pigs, which do not fully match market demand. Slaughtering enterprises are more inclined to purchase from large - scale farms, leading to a slight decrease in the trading weight, which may continue to decline slightly in the next week. The average settlement price of live pigs at key slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 12.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous period. The settlement price is continuously falling. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 38.92%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from last week. The supply of live pigs is generally abundant, and with the temperature drop, the terminal consumption has slightly recovered, increasing the orders of slaughtering enterprises and supporting the slight increase in the operating rate. However, the operating rate is expected to weaken next week. The profitability of self - breeding and piglet - fattening has decreased, and the decline in breeding costs is less than that in sales revenue. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: In the Yunnan rubber - producing area, the weather is average, and the raw - material price is stable, with the factory price increase driving up the raw - material price. In Hainan, the weather is good this week, but the output has decreased due to temperature. Affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, the overall glue output is lower than the same period in previous years. The production and purchase costs of local processing plants have slightly increased, providing support for the price. In Thailand, there is a lot of rain, and the average weekly price has reached 57 Thai baht/kg, with both the glue and cup - lump prices rising. In Vietnam, the raw - material supply in the southern area is gradually recovering, while other areas are still affected by rainfall. The total inventory is at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week due to short - term maintenance plans in some enterprises, but it will gradually recover. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.35 million and 3.32 million vehicles respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase and a record - high year - on - year increase. The natural - rubber inventory is increasing significantly, with the total social inventory reaching 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are accumulating inventory, and it is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The weakening of raw - material procurement prices and the inventory - accumulation trend suppress price increases, and with weak demand - side support, the natural - rubber price is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [10][11] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical instability has led to supply risks, and with the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December, oil prices have rebounded. The current PX supply is high, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, which is beneficial for PX demand. The PXN price difference is temporarily stable, and the PX price is oscillating widely [11] - **PTA**: The wide - range oscillation of oil prices has affected the PX end, causing the cost of PTA to loosen. Although the short - term supply - demand situation of PTA has improved, the industry's seasonal weakness is inevitable, and the supply - demand situation will deteriorate in the future. The processing margin is still low, and the spot price is expected to mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [11] - **MEG**: In the long - term, the inventory - accumulation pressure of MEG still exists, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in some supplies. Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply side. As the port inventory increases, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the MEG spot basis has weakened. In the short term, the MEG price is expected to oscillate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [11] - **PR**: The terminal performance remains weak, and the order - taking pressure of factories and traders has increased. With weak raw - material support, the polyester - bottle - chip market may oscillate weakly [11] - **PF**: The upward trend of oil prices continues, and the current supply - demand structure of polyester staple fiber is acceptable. However, the market is in a wait - and - see state [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed higher. However, due to the high - pressure background of the current supply environment and record - high inventory, it is still difficult for the synthetic rubber futures price to continue rising. Future market trends need to focus on factors such as new production capacity, domestic real estate and infrastructure policies, and crude oil price changes [2][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber 2601 (BR2601) opened at 10,690 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,755 yuan/ton, a low of 10,545 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 10,575 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 48,600 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,000 lots, a decrease of 6,617 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Latest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BR Rubber 2512 | 10,605 | 10,510 | - | 60 | 0.57 | 340 | 1,138 | | BR Rubber 2601 | 10,690 | 10,545 | 10,575 | 50 | 0.48 | 122,663 | 38,986 | | BR Rubber 2602 | 10,700 | 10,745 | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 3.2 Spot Movement - On December 3, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market were as follows: Yanshan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Yangzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Dushanzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Daqing Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The trading method was self - pick - up [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Recently, due to changes in the market environment, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, the available circulating supply has tightened, the cost support has gradually strengthened, and the synthetic rubber futures price has rebounded from a low level [5] 3.3.2 Policy and Market Dynamics - On December 3, data released by the Thai Rubber Administration showed that in Thailand's three major central rubber markets, Songkhla RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, Surat Thani RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, and Nakhon Si Thammarat RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - As of early December, the capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber reached a high of 76% for the year, and the capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber also increased to over 80%. The pressure on the butadiene supply side comes from both the abundant domestic production and the high level of imports [6]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...

Group 1 - The national production material market prices remained stable from November 24 to 30, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices generally increased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash rising by 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while polypropylene decreased by 0.7% [2] - Steel prices saw slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3349 yuan, 3535 yuan, and 3493 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea prices were flat compared to the previous week, while compound fertilizer rose by 0.3% [3] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced minor fluctuations, with zinc and copper increasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while aluminum decreased by 0.4% [4] - Rubber prices saw a slight decline, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber dropping by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [5] Group 3 - Coal prices experienced a slight decrease, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 789 yuan and 1069 yuan per ton, declining by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [5] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.6% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.72 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.8%, with cauliflower, cabbage, and zucchini increasing by 11.3%, 7.6%, and 6.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 3.8%, 1.2%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with silver carp, grass carp, and yellow croaker rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices remained stable, with eggs increasing by 0.1% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.1% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with peanut oil and rapeseed oil increasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice and flour remained stable, and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.21 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.4%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash rising by 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while polypropylene decreased by 0.7% [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3349 yuan, 3535 yuan, and 3493 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea remained unchanged while compound fertilizer rose by 0.3% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with zinc and copper increasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while aluminum decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices slightly declined, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Coal prices slightly decreased, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 789 yuan and 1069 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.5% and 0.4%, while anthracite coal increased by 0.1% to 1168 yuan per ton [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on December 4, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indexes, with shrinking trading volume. Different futures varieties had various price movements influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. - Each futures variety has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, the supply of some varieties is affected by production, imports, and inventory, while demand is influenced by downstream consumption and market sentiment [4][6]. 3) Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06% to 3875.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40% to 13006.72, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to 3067.48. The trading volume of the two markets was 1549 billion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and closed at 4546.57, up 15.52 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The average profit per ton of coke improved due to upstream and downstream concessions. Supply increased slightly, while demand weakened seasonally. Total inventory remained basically flat. The coke weighted index closed at 1704.6 on December 4, up 33.6 [2][4]. - Coking Coal: There is a seasonal production reduction expectation at the end of the year. In December, domestic supply is expected to decline while imports remain stable. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1143.8 yuan on December 4, up 21.0 [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on December 4. As of November 30, sugar production and sales in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [4]. Rubber - Affected by increased raw material supply and a decline in passenger car retail data, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated downward on December 4. In November, the national passenger car retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures price rose slightly on December 4. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the inventory is high. The M2605 contract closed at 3046 yuan/ton on December 4, down 0.25% [6]. Live Pigs - The LH2601 contract closed at 11385 yuan/ton on December 4, down 0.91%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with increased supply from large - scale pig farms and slow - growing demand [6]. Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract continued to oscillate downward on December 4. The P2601 K - line closed as a doji. The import price inversion of palm oil has narrowed [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper price reached a record high on December 4, driven by supply shortages and macro - economic factors. However, there is also a risk of correction. The main contract closed at 90980 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13765 yuan/ton at night on December 4. The cotton inventory increased by 50 compared with the previous day [7]. Logs - The Log 2601 contract on December 4 opened at 768, with a low of 763, a high of 769.5, and closed at 764.5, with an increase of 273 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable [7]. Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down on December 4, with a decline of 0.63% to 794.5 yuan. The supply and demand situation led to a short - term oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - The Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and rose on December 4, with a gain of 1.06% to 2952 yuan. The supply increased, and the inventory decreased, but the demand was suppressed [7]. Steel - On December 4, rb2605 was reported at 3175 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3332 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price showed a narrow - range adjustment [7]. Alumina - The ao2601 contract was reported at 2615 yuan/ton on December 4. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the futures price may continue to be weak [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The al2601 contract was reported at 22060 yuan/ton on December 4. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows certain resilience [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced due to port back - flow and trans - shipment, but the subsequent port pressure remains due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of port olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. - **Urea**: The market continues to fluctuate higher. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have improved short - term demand, and the overall supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is expected to build a bottom in a fluctuating manner, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is weakly falling. The flood in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand is receding, and the subsequent bullish factors are decreasing. The inventory of exchange RU is low, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It temporarily follows macro - fluctuations. A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [11][13][14]. - **PVC**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level, and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, but the supply is high, and the demand is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. In the face of a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [14][16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still ample, and the styrene inventory in ports is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18][19]. - **Polyethylene**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may have bottomed out the oil price. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21][22]. - **Polypropylene**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and an expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [23][25]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, while the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans and a low load. The PTA processing fee is under pressure, and PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [25][26]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be stable due to the gradual repair of processing fees, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December due to large - scale accidental maintenance, and the import volume will slightly decrease, so the inventory accumulation rate at ports may slow down. However, in the medium - term, the supply is expected to be high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 3.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.73% increase, at 452.60 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.57 million barrels to 427.50 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; SPR replenished by 0.25 million barrels to 411.67 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels to 214.42 million barrels, a 2.15% increase; diesel inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels to 114.29 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 22.89 million barrels, a 0.09% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.61 million barrels to 43.95 million barrels, a 1.41% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, the price in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 15 yuan to 2113 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 96 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 1688 yuan, the basis was + 2, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 57 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell weakly. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, and the exchange RU inventory was low. The fundamentals had little driving force and temporarily followed macro - fluctuations. The tire factory operating rate was weak. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a 2.3 - ton increase, a 2.1% increase [11][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 41 yuan to 4500 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 yuan/ton (down 40), the basis was - 40 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 282 (down 9). The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. The factory inventory was 32.3 tons (+ 0.7), and the social inventory was 104.3 tons (+ 1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price increased, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 tons to 16.42 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6776 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6820 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 16 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.93 tons to 45.4 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.33 tons to 4.71 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6359 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6410 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.75 tons to 54.63 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.29 tons to 20.05 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 6.53 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 417 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan narrowing [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 2 yuan to 6870 yuan, the PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 845 dollars, and the basis was - 17 yuan (- 61). The 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (unchanged). The PX load in China was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; the Asian load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas South Korea GS 550,000 - ton plant reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. In November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 390,000 tons, a 35,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a 48,000 - ton month - on - month increase [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 6 yuan to 4724 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 32 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan (- 4). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 28 was 2.173 million tons, a 58,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan to 171 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 194 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 4 yuan to 3826 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 18 yuan to 3822 yuan, the basis was - 7 yuan (- 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 94 yuan (+ 10). The ethylene glycol load was 72.9%, a 0.2% decrease, of which the syngas - based load was 72.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.1%, a 0.6% decrease. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 161,000 tons, and the East China departure on December 3 was 600 tons. The port inventory was 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 天然橡胶社会库存继续累积 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15210元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨；NR主力合约12085元/吨，较前一日变动-145 元/吨；BR主力合约10575元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14800元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1825美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1715 美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures prices have rebounded significantly after a second bottoming out, with the 2601 contract returning to the range of 10,500 to 11,000 yuan/ton. However, the market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a forecast of a bottoming phase for synthetic rubber futures in the near future [2][4]. Supply Side - The supply of synthetic rubber is currently ample, with the resumption of normal operations at Fushun Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical's first-phase facilities, alongside new installations increasing supply pressure. There is also an expectation of growth in imports, contributing to a continued supply surplus in the butadiene market [2]. - In November, the overall supply of synthetic rubber is expected to remain loose, with the capacity utilization rate for styrene-butadiene rubber in China at 68.13%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.27 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 0.53 percentage points. Consequently, the production of styrene-butadiene rubber in November was 130,100 tons, down 5.44% month-on-month but up 8.43% year-on-year [2]. - The inventory levels are on the rise, with the total inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber in sample enterprises at 32,400 tons by the end of November, an increase of 5.05% compared to the end of October. Additionally, the inventory of synthetic rubber futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 15,400 tons, a significant increase of 79.25% from the end of October, with a monthly average inventory growth of 42.40% [2]. Demand Side - The tire industry, the largest end-user of synthetic rubber, underperformed in November due to seasonal demand decline and global trade tensions. The capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel radial tire manufacturers was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month-on-month and down 13.64 percentage points year-on-year. For full-steel radial tires, the utilization rate was 62.75%, a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.68 percentage points [3]. - Semi-steel radial tires use approximately 35% synthetic rubber by total weight, while full-steel radial tires use only 8% to 10%, with natural rubber being the primary material (about 45% of total weight). The decline in semi-steel tire utilization indicates a decrease in synthetic rubber demand [3]. - The weakening demand for raw materials from tire manufacturers has further increased inventory pressure for synthetic rubber. The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 45.86 days, an increase of 7.69 days year-on-year, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 40.24 days, an increase of 0.69 days month-on-month. High inventory levels have led to a low purchasing willingness among tire manufacturers, who are adopting flexible production control strategies and maintaining minimal procurement levels for synthetic rubber [3]. Summary - In summary, the short-term outlook for synthetic rubber indicates ample supply and a lack of optimistic demand, with seasonal off-peak characteristics expected to persist until the end of the year. The tire industry remains in a low demand phase, and the traditional off-season for automotive consumption is limiting improvement in foreign trade orders. Given the supply-demand imbalance in the synthetic rubber market, December futures prices are expected to lack sustained upward momentum, with a market trend of oscillation and bottoming likely to prevail [4].