地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 3.08%，报 60.14 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 2.76%，报 63.00 美元/桶。 2. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆期货跌 0.94%报 1052.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 2.59%报 470.75 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 1.22%报 524.50 美分/蒲式耳。 3.国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品表现疲软，纸浆跌 3.05%，玻 璃跌 2.6%，纯碱跌 2.26%，燃油跌 1.41%，低硫燃料油跌 1.2%。黑色系全线下 跌，焦煤跌 1.71%。农产品多数下跌，棕榈油跌近 1%。 原油主力合约收跌 2.07%报 478.0 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 0.29%报 785.02 元/克，沪银涨 0.12%报 8226 元/千克。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, representing a clear short - term downward trend, and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a short - term downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall metal market is in a complex situation with various influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and downstream industry conditions. Different metal products have different trends, and short - term price movements are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to factors like demand intensity in peak seasons, policy implementation, and iron - water production changes [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is under pressure and has declined. Thread steel's apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, lacking sustained recovery. Its production is basically flat, and inventory continues to decline with a relatively low absolute value. Hot - rolled coil's supply - demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Iron - water production has reached a high level, but future production resumption will slow down due to falling steel - making profits. The downstream industries of steel, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, have improved, while the real - estate sector is still weak. The Sino - US tariff policy will continue to be debated, and the expectation of crude - steel reduction has cooled rapidly. The market will mainly show weak oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to position control before holidays [1] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is oscillating. The global shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded and is at a relatively strong level in the same period, and port inventory has started to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week's iron - water production increased significantly, and short - term steel - mill profitability is acceptable, so iron - water production is expected to remain high. There were no super - expected policies in important domestic meetings, and the impact of production - restriction news on the market has weakened. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, with certain short - term support, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling iron - water production in the future [2] Coke - The coke price is oscillating downward. The second round of price increases by coking enterprises has been rejected, and the bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has continued to increase slightly. The overall coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and there is no purchasing enthusiasm in the trade market. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and downstream iron - water production has continued to increase significantly, with good steel - billet export orders. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is oscillating downward. The production of coking - coal mines is gradually recovering, but this week's production has still slightly decreased due to some mines. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has loosened. Terminal inventory is still high, and there is no additional restocking demand during the May Day holiday. The total coking - coal inventory is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The market price is under pressure from inventory and tariff fluctuations, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [4] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has reached a new low this year due to the wavering tariff policy. The national manganese - ore port inventory has been continuously increasing. According to Steel Union data, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by more than 300,000 tons last week. The spot and forward - looking prices of manganese ore have both declined. Although iron - water production has increased significantly, the supply of silicomanganese has continued to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is oscillating downward due to the wavering tariff policy. Iron - water production has increased significantly. Export demand is generally in a downward trend month - on - month, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased, and secondary demand is average, resulting in a marginal decline in overall demand. The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to increase. Its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6]

胎年金属数据日报 周一期价冲高回落,盘面情绪在"减产"消息影响下略好了些,至少在这个消息驱动下,钢材可能还是最优多头配置品种, 现货跟涨略显乏力,成交尚可。市场传闻的28号会议暂时也没有新的消息,传闻搁置对行情无法产生新的驱动。宏观层 面,28号新闻发布会上能量化的增量信息不多,市场更希望看到有实打实的政策落地,或许才会更有信心;微观层面,供 需矛盾不突出,钢材库存还处于季节性改善的阶段,反馈到价格行为上,更多是一种"现实不差但预期很差" 的阶段, "预期差"来自于5月以后建材进入季节性淡季以及出口链条开始逐渐转弱,没有信心导致卖方持货意愿不高;品种估值并 不算高,单边投机追空的性价比不高。总体看,五一长假临近,单边敬口降低轻仓过节仍是主要思路。 【焦煤焦炭】第二轮提涨难落地,焦煤竞拍持续走弱 现货端,部分钢厂拒绝焦炭第二轮提涨,市场情绪较弱,炼焦煤竞拍持续走弱,成交价格以下跌为主,港口贸易准一焦炭服 价1350(->,炼焦煤价格指数1090.3(-2.0);蒙煤方面,甘其毛都口岸通关大幅下降,降库明显,但整体供应依然充 裕,市场弱稳运行,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤835(-),蒙5精煤1030 (-10),蒙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on April 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 22 to April 28, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 141.4, - 143.4, - 144.4, - 146.4, - 147.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the basis of INE crude oil was - 40.24 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1469 [9]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For commodities like natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., basis data from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber on April 28 was - 180 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple chemical commodities are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of natural rubber being - 985 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on April 28 was 121.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was - 97.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40 [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on April 28 was - 40 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on April 28, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 28.60, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on April 28 was - 265 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 8 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on April 28 was 51.02 [47]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 32.8 [47].

2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁：低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | Wi | | | | | | --- ...

【钢材】 | | | | Millia | ■这部落 | 黑巴至隔日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需环比下滑，回暖仍相对缺乏持续性，产量基本持平，库存继续下降，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷供需趋稳，库存延续下降态势,铁水产量上升至高位,随着吨钢利润下滑,后期复产将明显放缓。从下游行业看,基建、制 造业有所好转,地产销售、新开工障幅边际收窄,整体依然疲 ...

商 品 研 究 2025年04月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁：低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 4 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.23） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3137 45 1.46% | | 3150 | 13 | | 热卷 | 3233 1.41% | 45 | 3230 | -3 | | 铁矿 | 727.5 15 2.11% | | 774 | 46.5 | | 焦煤 | 962.5 24 2.56% | | 1030 | 67.5 | | 焦炭 | 1595 48.5 3.14% | | 1404 | -191 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货普遍上涨。螺纹收于3137元/吨，上涨1.46%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3233元/吨，上涨1.41%；铁矿今日主力合约收于727.5元/吨，上涨 | | | | | | 2.11%；双焦今天领涨黑色系。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，钢厂利润有所回升，高炉铁水产量维持在240万吨以上，短期铁矿 | | | | | | ...

【4 月 23 日国内期市黑色金属板块表现各异】铁矿石主力涨近 2%，截至目前上涨 1.82%，报 725.50 元/吨。螺纹钢主力上涨 0.39%，报 3104.00 元/吨。热卷主力上涨 0.56%，报 3206.00 元/吨。线材主力下 跌 0.18%，报 3350.00 元/吨。4 月 23 日黑色金属期货价格行情如下：螺纹钢开盘价 3080.00 元，昨收价 3075.00 元，昨结价 3092.00 元。铁矿石开盘价 711.00 元，昨收价 711.00 元，昨结价 712.50 元。不锈钢 开盘价 12700.00 元，昨收价 12690.00 元，昨结价 12740.00 元。热卷开盘价 3176.00 元，昨收价 3171.00 元，昨结价 3188.00 元。线材开盘价 3376.00 元，昨收价 3339.00 元，昨结价 3356.00 元。硅铁开盘价 5686.00 元，昨收价 5666.00 元，昨结价 5686.00 元。锰硅开盘价 5830.00 元，昨收价 5810.00 元，昨结 价 5844.00 元。4 月 22 日黑色金属仓单数据显示：螺纹钢仓库期货仓单 20482 ...