Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

Report Summary 1. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Ore Price Quotes - **Coal**: Canadian CFR remained at 160, Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal at 1000, Shanxi Liulin medium - sulfur coal at 940, and Mongolian 5 clean coal (Wubulangkou) dropped 15 to 878. The price of main coking coal (Tangshan) was 1015 [1]. - **Coke**: Rizhao quasi - first - grade (spot delivery) was 1180, Ordos second - grade was 931, Shaanxi Changzhi quasi - first was 1270, and the export FOB dropped 2 to 206 [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of various iron ore types at Qingdao Port increased, such as 61.5% - PB powder rising 5 to 724, 59.5% - Jinbuba rising 5 to 675. The iron ore daily trading volume decreased 16 to 79 [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The prices in Tianjin dropped 20 to 5480, and in Guangxi remained at 5430. Inner Mongolia's production profit increased 4 to - 174, while Guangxi's remained at - 683 [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The prices in Tianjin dropped 50 to 5250, and in Inner Mongolia Ordos dropped 50 to 5200. Inner Mongolia's production profit decreased 45 to - 374, and Ningxia's remained at - 430 [1]. - **Rebar**: The prices in Beijing and Guangzhou increased 10 to 3180 and 3210 respectively, and in Shanghai remained at 3110. The steel mill's daily trading volume increased 4837 to 104599, and the East China blast furnace profit increased 8 to 136 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Southeast Asian CFR import price dropped 7 to 465, and the Japanese FOB export price dropped 5 to 495 [1]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe 5mm remained at 1104. The production cost using petroleum coke dropped 16 to 1170, using natural gas dropped 4 to 1478, and using coal remained at 1023 [1]. 2. Market Charts - **Rebar**: There are charts showing rebar's spot - futures comparison, main contract basis, spreads, trading volume, and positions over different time periods [5][7][9][11][13]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Charts display hot - rolled coil's spot - futures comparison, basis, spreads, trading volume, and positions [19][21][23][25][27]. - **Iron Ore**: There are charts for iron ore's spot - futures prices, main contract basis, spreads, trading volume, and positions, as well as brand spot prices and high - low grade spreads [33][35][37][39][41]. - **Ferroalloy**: Charts present manganese silicon's and silicon iron's spot - futures comparison, main contract basis, and spreads [44][46][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are charts for coking coal and coke's spot - futures prices, main contract basis, and spreads [55][56][58]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Charts show glass and soda ash's spot - futures prices, main contract basis, and spreads [65][67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, leading to a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure and the US dollar index remaining volatile [1][14][17][19]. - Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. In the future, the strength of China's domestic economic recovery will gradually play a more important role in pricing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of incremental policies [2][28]. - The market does not think the result of Sino - US trade negotiations is beyond expectations. Coupled with the news that the central bank is evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchase, treasury bond futures are relatively strong [3]. - Steel prices are oscillating. Although the current fundamental contradictions are not significant, the rainy season in East China has significantly suppressed the demand for building materials, and concerns about weakening external demand are difficult to reverse, so there is limited room for price rebound [4][40]. - After the stabilization of the futures market last week, the price of FMB ore has rebounded slightly recently. It remains to be seen whether the ore price can stabilize at $600 [5][65]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Tensions in the Middle East have led to market concerns and a sharp increase in oil prices [6][70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US budget deficit in May was $316 billion, a reduction compared to May 2024. The total customs duties in May reached a record $23 billion, almost four times that of May 2024. The budget expenditure in May was at a record high for that month [13]. - The US May CPI was lower than market expectations. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, mainly driven by geopolitical risks. The market's concerns about the Fed's monetary policy have weakened, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the June meeting. Gold has not broken out of the volatile range, and the market's long - short game has increased. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range with increased market fluctuations [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government's fiscal deficit in May further expanded. Although the deficit in May 2025 decreased by 9% compared to May 2024, the annual deficit increased by 14% year - on - year [16]. - The US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, indicating a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure. The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated. The US has ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Iraq and allowed military families to leave the Middle East [21]. - The US May CPI has been lower than expected for four consecutive months. The CPI growth rate was lower than expected, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. However, the slow progress of US - EU negotiations and the deterioration of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in US stocks. US stocks have not broken out of the volatile market, and it is not recommended to chase the high [22][24][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will implement zero - tariff policies on 100% of tariff items for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [26]. - Sino - US negotiations have reached a framework on the Geneva Consensus. Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [28][29]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [30]. - Sino - US negotiations have basically reached a framework on implementing the Geneva Consensus. The market has strengthened due to the logic of disappointing Sino - US trade negotiations and weak domestic economic data. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to buy bonds and accumulate long positions [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its export sales report on Thursday. The market expects that the net increase in US soybean export sales for the current year as of June 5 will be between 1 - 5 million tons, and for the 25/26 year, it will be between 0 - 2 million tons [32]. - On June 11, the transaction volume of soybean meal was large. The import of Brazilian soybeans has decreased in cost, and domestic funds have shown a clear trend of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report [33][35][36]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 10 decreased by 17.24% month - on - month. The palm oil market adjusted yesterday, with palm oil leading the decline. It is believed that palm oil is in the bottom - building stage, and long positions can be considered [37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The steel price continues to oscillate, and there is limited room for price rebound. It is recommended to use the spot end for hedging on price rebounds [38][40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of early June, over 90% of Australia's new cotton has been harvested, and the total output is expected to be 5.4 million bales. As of June 7, the sowing progress of US new cotton is still behind. The external market is expected to remain weakly volatile at a low level in the short term. Domestically, the textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic [41][43][44]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On June 11, the price of steam coal in the northern ports remained stable. The coal price has temporarily stabilized, but there is a risk of a second bottom - hitting in summer. Attention should be paid to the growth rate of thermal power consumption and the substitution of new energy [45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Many automobile enterprises have promised to pay within 60 days. The overall market sentiment has eased, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are seasonally weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile. An oscillating market mindset is recommended [46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In May, the sales volume and revenue of some pig - raising enterprises decreased year - on - year. In the short to medium term, the price may be at its most pessimistic from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. In the long term, the industry bottom may be approaching. It is recommended to wait and see [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. The supply - demand structure is improving. CS07 - C07 is expected to remain volatile at a low level, and CS09 - C09 is expected to recover, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continues to decline rapidly, and the spot price of corn has strengthened. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with an oscillating trend. It is recommended to hold the 07 long - positions with low costs and wait and see, and not to transfer the long - positions to the 09 contract [52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes. In June, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a significant impact on the fundamentals. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended, with the catalyst/risk being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. In June, some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, while most in Yunnan are still observing. The demand is not significantly improved. The futures price is expected to be volatile at a low level, and short - selling on price rebounds can be considered [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.55 per ton. The demand for lead has bottomed out and shows no improvement, while supply disruptions are the main factor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - line low - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $33.05 per ton. The zinc price has oscillated upwards, mainly due to improved macro - sentiment. In June, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to peak, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually emerge. Short - selling on price rebounds is recommended [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Philippines has removed the ban on nickel ore exports from its mining fiscal system bill. The LME has reduced inventory, and SHFE has increased warehouse receipts. The nickel price is expected to be volatile at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side of the futures market and consider selling put options on price dips [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. The inventory accumulation pressure in June has been significantly relieved, and the market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking state. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [64][65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China is stable, and the US C3 inventory has increased. The domestic futures price is expected to be supported by the strengthening of oil prices [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Oil prices have risen significantly due to Middle East tensions, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [68][70][71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On June 11, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was partially adjusted downwards. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The decline of the 09 contract is limited due to good supply - demand and excessive discount [72][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market has mostly declined. The futures price is expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder in the domestic market is oscillating. The futures price is also expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - On June 11, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased. The styrene futures price is oscillating upwards. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential compression of intermediate - link profits after the return of downstream plants and the potential impact of new production capacity in the medium term [78][80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some local decreases. The industry is facing high supply pressure and low processing fees. It is recommended to consider taking long positions in bottle - chip processing fees on price dips [81][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On June 11, the soda ash market in Shahe was average, and the futures price was oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds in the medium term [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On June 11, the price of float glass in Shahe was mostly stable. The futures price is slightly oscillating, and the fundamental driving force is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. The spot price may continue to decline [85][86].

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, with the same implication as hot rolled coil [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, a mixed signal with some bullish drivers but unclear overall trend [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, similar to coke [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish driver but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and international trade situations. Some products are expected to have short - term oscillations, while the long - term outlook is influenced by factors like terminal demand and policy changes [1][2] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is divided. Thread steel is in the off - season with declining demand and slower inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling while production is rising and inventory is accumulating. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing but still high, and the negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. The downstream industries have different performances, with limited improvement in infrastructure, unstable real - estate sales, and high growth in automobile production and sales. The market rebounds in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upside [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market shows a rising trend today. The supply is strong with potential seasonal growth, and the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. The demand is weak in the off - season, but the short - term reduction in iron - water production is limited, and there is still mid - term negative feedback risk. The market sentiment has improved due to Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices are oscillating. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing, but coke production is still high due to existing profits. The overall inventory is slightly rising, and traders have no purchasing actions. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain conditions. The Sino - US tariff issue has a large impact [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also oscillating. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the future trend of production - end inventory is uncertain. Similar to coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price rebounds under certain circumstances. The Sino - US tariff issue needs continuous attention [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese may start an independent market. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production is rising. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further due to increased supply and inventory. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the supply of silicon manganese is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [6] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices are mainly driven by coking coal. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing. The export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [7]

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market experienced a collective rise on June 11, with silicon iron and iron ore increasing by over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, the main contracts showed the following price changes: silicon iron up 1.51% to 5244.00 CNY/ton, iron ore up 1.07% to 707.50 CNY/ton, hot rolled coil up 0.81% to 3109.00 CNY/ton, and rebar up 0.79% to 3319.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - The futures prices for various black metal contracts on June 11 were as follows: rebar at 2974.00 CNY, iron ore at 700.00 CNY, stainless steel at 12455.00 CNY, hot rolled coil at 3090.00 CNY, wire rod at 3309.00 CNY, silicon iron at 5180.00 CNY, and manganese silicon at 5550.00 CNY [2] - A phenomenon of "backwardation" was observed in rebar, hot rolled coil, and stainless steel contracts, where the spot prices exceeded the futures prices [2] Group 3 - The basis data as of June 10 indicated the following: rebar had a spot price of 3090.22 CNY with a basis of 119 CNY, wire rod at 3267.5 CNY with a basis of -25 CNY, hot rolled coil at 3173.33 CNY with a basis of 89 CNY, stainless steel at 13100 CNY with a basis of 560 CNY, silicon iron at 5088.57 CNY with a basis of -77 CNY, and manganese silicon at 5536 CNY with a basis of -18 CNY [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 11, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with data for potential arbitrage opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From June 4 to June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Base Difference**: For INE crude oil on June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 14.42 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, it was 191.19 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1328 [10]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were 45, 119, 243, 144, and 609 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of natural rubber was 35 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was - 890 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2294 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 158 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 126, 104, - 11.8, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 3 yuan/ton, and the 10 - month - 1 - month spread was 4 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26, and the rebar/coke ratio was 2.2046 [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 510, 160, 295, - 50, 1590, and 1390 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - **London Market** - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On June 10, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 84.10, 7.37, - 33.05, - 27.55, - 194.17, and 5.00 respectively [31]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.11, 8.09, 8.27, 8.48, 7.91, and 8.10 respectively [31]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 1172.72, - 1399.92, - 536.36, 313.62, - 1058.35, and - 21434.71 yuan/ton respectively [31]. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn were - 119, 0, - 51, 332, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 9 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was 110 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.56 [40]. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 24.47, 16.40, 39.79, and 47.89 respectively [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread was - 38.2, and the current - quarter - current - month spread was - 67.6 [48].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In May, Hubei's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to April. Urban areas saw a rise of 0.3%, while rural areas experienced a decline of 0.2% [1] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the 0.6% rise in service prices, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment, which rose by 1.4%. The demand for tourism and entertainment during the "May Day" holiday contributed significantly to this increase [2] - Food prices remained stable year-on-year, with fresh fruit and aquatic products rising by 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively. However, the decline in fresh vegetable prices offset some of the upward pressure [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Trends - In May, Hubei's industrial producer prices decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The average decline for the first five months was 2.6% compared to the same period last year [3] - The prices of industrial materials fell by 3.0%, with raw material prices dropping by 5.2% and processing industry prices decreasing by 2.6%. Only general daily necessities saw a slight increase of 2.8% [3][4] - The decline in costs for raw materials, such as chemical raw materials (down 13.2%) and black metal materials (down 7.4%), has alleviated pressure on enterprise production costs [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The holiday economy has significantly boosted service consumption, indicating a need for further expansion of domestic demand and promotion of consumption upgrades [4] - The increase in service prices is expected to continue with the end of high school entrance exams and the upcoming summer travel demand, supported by policies aimed at stimulating consumption [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...