2月3日，港股集体高开，其中恒生指数涨0.82%报26995.76点，恒生科技指数涨0.68%报5563.79点，国 企指数涨0.59%报9133.88点，红筹指数涨0.33%报4259.27点。 招商局置地(00978.HK)：2025年合同销售总额约为323.08亿元，同比减少23.91%。 蓝河控股(00498.HK)：与能储投公司订立合作框架协议。 中兴通讯(00763.HK)：拟出资1.17亿元认购建兴湛卢基金份额，可投资扶持更大范围的创新业务及上下 游产业链企业。 云工场(02512.HK)：附属中标人工智能产业基地二期项目，合约价值为人民币5.2亿元。 小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)：1月共交付新车20011辆。 拉近网娱(08172.HK)：附属拉近众博获蚂蚁云通授权为"蚂蚁百宝箱官方合作服务商"。 骏东控股(08277.HK)：附属河北林木与金达林业订立木材采伐及销售协议。 环球医疗(02666.HK)：附属拟发行本金总额不超过10亿元公司债。 君圣泰医药（核心股）-B(02511.HK)：任命Filip Surmont博士为首席医学官，强化心肾代谢系统疾病 (CKM)布局。 盘面上，大型 ...

策略配置研究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 1 月） 轮动中把握景气线索，关注涨价与科技 证券分析师 平安观点： 1. 上游周期：地缘风险、流动性偏宽等多重驱动下，1 月商品走强波动加大。 有色涨幅最为显著，月末价格回落、波动加大，多数品种已升至近两年 90% 以上高分位区间；石油、化工品接力上涨，但价格水平多数仍处于历史中枢以 下，化工品内部分化明显；煤炭价格波动向上，钢铁、建材表现平淡。 2. 中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气。1 月新 能源光伏、电池产业链材料价格普遍上涨，多数品种已处近两年 80%以上分 位，但仍远低于 2022 年高点；12 月电池出口有支撑；电网设备迎"十五五" 政策支持。机械制造的近一年价格指数相对平稳，12 月通用机械、挖掘机出 口维持高增，机器人产量延续高增。汽车内销偏弱出口韧性，12 月乘用车、 新能源车销量环比负增，但出口相对韧性；商用车内销、出口环比同步增长。 3. TMT：存储引领半导体涨价周期，AI 软硬件需求延续向好。1 月存储 DXI 指数环比上涨 28.3%，同比涨幅超 10 倍，智能设备销售均价同步上涨 ...

融创中国公告，于2026年1月27日，根据于2025年12月23日发行2026年到期的零票息强制可转换债券 ("强制可转换债券1")配发及发行约8.99亿股新股。 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月2日，融创中国(01918)股东将股票存入花旗银行，存 仓市值16.49亿港元，占比8.42%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sector showed signs of recovery in January, driven by strong demand for dividend assets from insurance companies and the performance of cyclical high dividend stocks like oil, petrochemicals, and steel [2][4]. Market Overview - The overall market risk appetite continued to decline in January, with the full A ERP falling below one standard deviation of the past five-year average, indicating a challenging environment for market risk premium recovery [1][3]. - The volatility in cyclical stocks has impacted the market's profit-making ability, leading to a potential "small plateau" in investor risk appetite [3]. High Dividend Strategy - The configuration value of high dividend stocks has marginally increased compared to the previous month, suggesting a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1][3]. - The high dividend strategy's cost-effectiveness has improved, with the current full A ERP positioned at a historically significant level, requiring fundamental recovery or strong capital support for a breakthrough [3]. Sector Investment Opportunities - **Insurance**: The market sentiment remains strong, with expectations for continued positive performance in the insurance sector [5]. - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about global oil supply risks, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 has been raised to $65 per barrel [5]. - **Construction Materials**: The construction sector is expected to improve post-Spring Festival, with price increases in fiberglass, waterproof materials, and gypsum boards anticipated [5]. - **Utilities**: The electricity supply side is expected to stabilize, with coal prices remaining steady, indicating a bottoming out of electricity stock valuations [6]. - **Transportation**: The logistics sector is seeing a slight uptick in activity, particularly in road freight, as the Spring Festival travel season approaches [6]. - **Banking**: Banks are actively increasing lending, with profit margins expected to improve, particularly in light of a manageable impact from the real estate sector [7]. - **Real Estate**: The Hong Kong residential market has seen significant growth, with transaction volumes and prices rebounding, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - **Consumer Staples**: Leading companies in the consumer staples sector are expected to maintain stable cash flows and increase dividend payouts, benefiting from structural upgrades and international expansion opportunities [8].

韩国总统李在明在其 X 平台账号发文称，韩国政府将采取一切必要手段严厉打击房地产投机行为。政 府拥有充足的政策工具用以稳定房价。李在明建议多套房持有者即刻抛售房产，这是他们在 5 月高额资 本利得税免税政策到期前的 "最后机会"。李在明总统近期通过社交媒体接连发布多条声明，持续向多 套房持有者释放信号，警示其不要与政府政策对抗。 责任编辑：王永生 韩国总统李在明在其 X 平台账号发文称，韩国政府将采取一切必要手段严厉打击房地产投机行为。政 府拥有充足的政策工具用以稳定房价。李在明建议多套房持有者即刻抛售房产，这是他们在 5 月高额资 本利得税免税政策到期前的 "最后机会"。李在明总统近期通过社交媒体接连发布多条声明，持续向多 套房持有者释放信号，警示其不要与政府政策对抗。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,954.92, up by 179.35 points or 0.67% as of February 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,021.10 and a low of 26,800.30 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40.725 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.961, increasing by 3.91% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 595.694, down by 0.47% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 598.500, down by HKD 7.500 or 1.24% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 163.300, down by HKD 5.900 or 3.49% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 134.700, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.39% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 89.050, down by HKD 1.300 or 1.44% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 94.850, down by HKD 2.350 or 2.42% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 91.000, down by HKD 6.750 or 6.91% [3] - Kuaishou Technology: Latest price HKD 77.000, down by HKD 3.150 or 3.93% [3]

（原标题：韩国经济副总理：经济复苏势头良好将推进资本市场与房地产政策改革） 据韩国《纽西斯》1月29日报道，韩国经济副总理兼财政经济部长具允哲当日在采访中总结了政府 过去8个月的经济工作成果，并阐述了未来政策方向。他指出，去年政府成立初期虽面临一季度经济负 增长等困难局面，但通过稳定心理、追加预算等措施，使经济增速从上半年的0.3%大幅升至下半年的 1.7%，并实现了2025年全年1%的增长，出口额突破7000亿美元，股市也创下历史新高。得益于半导体 行业快速复苏，2026年经济增长率有望达到2%。他同时也坦承，由于资产差距扩大、企业两极分化、 青年就业疲软等问题，普通民众的"体感经济"复苏仍然滞后，政府将着力出台更具包容性的政策。在政 策方面，政府将推进资本市场"胡萝卜加大棒"改革，一方面提高退市门槛清退不良企业，另一方面扩大 技术企业上市支持，推动市场先进化。关于房地产政策，明确将结束多套住房转让税优惠措施，并表示 将就强化财产保有税广泛听取民意，以改善资源分配结构并减轻政策执行过程中的社会负担。 ...

2月2日，海南省市场利率定价自律机制发布政策公告，2月3日起，海南省19个市县调整商业用房购房贷 款最低首付款比例，首付款比例不低于30%。 公告指出，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房地产 发展新模式，根据《中国人民银行 国家金融监督管理总局关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款比例 政策的通知》（银发〔2026〕14号）要求，中国人民银行海南省分行会同国家金融监督管理总局海南监 管局根据城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原则，指导海南省市场利率定价自律机制对海南省19个市县 的商业用房购房贷款政策作以下调整： 来源：海南日报客户端 作者: 王培琳 在政策下限基础上，省内各商业银行可按市场化、法治化原则，结合自身经营情况、客户风险状况等因 素，合理确定每笔商业用房购房贷款具体首付款比例。 上述政策自2026年2月3日起执行。 全省商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is experiencing an unexpected surge in activity during the traditional off-peak season, driven by improved price-performance ratios and a shift in buyer sentiment towards lower-priced properties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - From November 2025 to January 2026, the Shanghai second-hand housing market recorded nearly 23,000 transactions per month, totaling close to 70,000 homes sold in three months, breaking the traditional seasonal slowdown [2][3]. - The transaction volume in January 2026 increased significantly compared to the previous years, with a year-on-year growth of 39.4% compared to January 2024 and 23.4% compared to January 2025 [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The average price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai in January 2026 was 55,265 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.22% and a year-on-year decline of 7.61%, indicating a return to more reasonable price levels [3][4]. - Properties priced below 3 million yuan accounted for over 70% of transactions, with nearly half of the sales in January 2026 being below 2 million yuan [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The rental yield for certain older properties has increased, making them attractive for both living and investment purposes, with some areas showing yields as high as 3.0%, surpassing bank deposit rates [4][6]. - The current market is showing signs of a "bottoming" phase, with a significant reduction in the number of listings, indicating a shift in seller and buyer expectations [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a growing belief that the market may transition from "price-driven volume" to "stable volume and price," with conditions for price stabilization gradually being met [5][6]. - The real estate policy is shifting towards stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, with potential demand release expected in March 2026 as new quality land parcels are introduced [6].

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2026, over 3,006 listed companies in A-shares disclosed their performance forecasts for 2025, representing 55.1% of all A-shares, slightly higher than 53.4% in 2024 [10][12] - The forecasted positive performance rate for 2025 is 36.7%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from 2024, while the negative performance rate decreased from 66.2% in 2024 to 63.3% [14][15] - The proportion of companies expecting profit increases has risen significantly, with the share of profit-increasing companies reaching 21.1%, indicating a potential recovery in profit growth [15][18] Group 2 - The performance forecast rates for major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are around 60%, primarily driven by profit increases, indicating a recovery trend among large and mid-cap companies [18][19] - In contrast, the CSI 1000 index has a positive performance rate of only 37%, with a high proportion of companies still facing losses, reflecting weaker overall profitability [18][19] - The non-bank financial sector shows a high positive performance rate of 88%, with 72% of companies expecting profit increases, while the real estate sector has a low positive performance rate of only 18% [22][24] Group 3 - The analysis of performance changes indicates that AI, overseas exports, anti-involution, and price increases are the core growth drivers for over 40% of high-performing companies [22][24] - The performance of companies benefiting from AI is expanding beyond the tech sector into midstream manufacturing, while more industries are starting to gain from overseas exports [22][24] - The performance of companies in the anti-involution sector is expected to be a key area of focus for 2025, as they show a higher proportion of exceeding performance forecasts [22][24] Group 4 - The distribution of performance growth rates shows a rightward shift in the "U" shape curve, indicating an increase in companies experiencing recovery from difficulties [24][29] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-shares is projected to reach 29.6% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of 12.4%, suggesting a solidifying trend in profitability [29][32] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to maintain high resilience in net profit growth, contrasting with the declines seen in previous years [29][32]