Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - UBS's head of Asia Pacific real estate research, Lin Zhenhong, emphasizes that rental trends are key indicators for market recovery, maintaining the forecast that the mainland real estate market will bottom out in the second half of 2026 [1] - Lin explains that only when rental prices stabilize will residents reassess the cost-effectiveness of home buying, leading to a shift from renting to buying [1] - Over the past three to four years, declining property prices and rents have led many to postpone home purchases, resulting in a vibrant rental market in first-tier cities, where about half of the population relies on renting for housing needs [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation and Trends - The mainland real estate market is currently experiencing structural differentiation, with strong sales in the high-end residential segment due to previous price controls limiting developers' willingness to build high-end projects [1] - In Hong Kong, despite current pressures from rising unemployment and short-term oversupply, a supply-demand imbalance is expected in the next three to four years, leading to a positive outlook for the residential market [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Office Market Insights - UBS Greater China real estate analyst Liang Zhanjia notes that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is expected to decrease from around 3% to 2.2% by the end of the year, further dropping to 1.6% next year, which will support the Hong Kong property market [2] - The office market in Hong Kong is anticipated to see a steady increase in rental rates from 2027 to 2028 due to a significant reduction in new office supply by 2026, although rental prices are expected to continue declining until the end of 2026 [2] - A recent major transaction involving Alibaba and Ant Group purchasing a commercial office building for $925 million (approximately 7 billion HKD) has sparked discussions about a potential recovery in the Hong Kong office market [2] Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Currently, investors account for only 20% of buyers in the office market, significantly lower than the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank attitudes towards office mortgage loans and high interest rates affecting rental yields [3] - Despite the low investor participation, signs of a bottoming out in rental prices for Grade A office spaces in Hong Kong are emerging [3]

Economic Performance - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, matching expectations but down from 5.2% in the previous quarter[1] - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5%, exceeding the expected 5.2%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, against an expectation of 0%[1] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1%[1] - Service consumption remained resilient, with service retail growth rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%[3] - Below-limit retail sales weakened, dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in September saw a slight recovery, up 0.7 percentage points to -6.5% year-on-year[4] - Real estate development investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 13.9%[4] - Manufacturing investment showed a slight increase, with a monthly year-on-year growth of -1.5%[4] Real Estate Market - The completion rate surged by 22.9 percentage points in September, reaching 1.5%[3] - New housing sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%[1] - Housing prices in 70 cities showed a slight recovery, but remained negative on a month-on-month basis[3] Outlook and Risks - Economic pressures are increasing, but policies are actively countering these effects, suggesting resilience in Q4[4] - Potential risks include external environment changes and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rally on October 20, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,858.83 points, up 2.42% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately HKD 239.2 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 2.67 billion [1] Index Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.00% to 5,933.17 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.45% to 9,232.67 points [2] - The best-performing sectors included Energy, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary, with respective gains of 3.26%, 3.17%, and 2.54% [2] Company Highlights - UBTECH, known as the "first humanoid robot stock," surged by 9.77% on October 20 [3] - UBTECH secured a contract worth HKD 126 million for the procurement and installation of intelligent data collection and testing center equipment, with delivery planned by 2025 [5] - The company has received over HKD 630 million in orders for its Walker series humanoid robots this year, leading the commercialization of humanoid robots globally [5] Technology Sector - The technology and internet sector saw significant gains, with Alibaba-W rising by 4.86%, NetEase-S up 5.18%, and Tencent Holdings increasing by 3.21% [8] - Alibaba is preparing for the "Double 11" shopping festival by issuing HKD 50 billion in consumer vouchers, aiming to enhance customer loyalty and increase platform monetization [9] Real Estate Sector - Hong Kong real estate stocks rallied, with notable increases including Wharf Holdings up 4.46% and Swire Properties up 2.33% [10] - Alibaba and Ant Group announced a HKD 6.6 billion acquisition of a commercial office building in Hong Kong, marking the largest commercial property transaction in the city this year [12] Financial Cooperation - A memorandum of cooperation was signed between Jiangsu Provincial Financial Regulatory Bureau and Hong Kong Treasury Bureau, aiming to deepen financial collaboration and support Jiangsu enterprises in utilizing Hong Kong's capital markets [13]

10月20日，因为投资者对债券违规担忧，越南股市遭遇4月以来最大跌幅。越南股市在收盘前最后时刻突然跳水大跌，最终基准胡志明指数接近5.5%的大 跌，也创下今年4月初关税事件冲击后的最大单日跌幅。截至收盘，MSCI越南指数下跌5.85%，胡志明指数下跌5.18%。 综合各方分析，越南市场周一的大幅下跌主要有两层因素：短期显著上涨后面临获利盘踩踏兑现的压力，此外越南债券市场的违规募资问题也在此时被放 大。 越南政府监察局于上周五（10月17日）公布了对67家债券发行人的检查结果，其中包括5家银行，检查发现这些机构存在"各类违规行为"。 据统计，周一越南市场有接近150只股票跌停。房地产、证券、银行板块是遭遇投资者抛售的主要阵地，VN30指数（越南市值最大的30家上市公司）成分 股中的14只银行股有8只跌停。作为背景，胡志明证券交易所涨跌停限制为±7%。 根据调查结果，检查组对67家发行机构的执行情况进行了检查。调查发现，违规行为包括资金挪用、信息披露不充分、资金管理不善、延迟支付本金与利 息，以及项目提前销售。调查组表示，有将发行公司债券的资金用于错误用途的迹象，包括通过多个中介机构和个人制造交易、转移债券资金供 ...

来源 | 证券时报、财联社 2025.10. 20 本文字数：790，阅读时长大约1分钟 10月20日，因为投资者对债券违规担忧，越南股市遭遇4月以来最大跌幅。 越南股市 在收盘前最后时刻突然跳水大跌，最终基准胡志明指数接近5.5% 的大跌，也创下今年4月初关税事件冲击后的最大单日跌幅。 截至收盘，MSCI越南指数下跌5.85%，胡志明指数下跌5.18%。 据统计，周一越南市场有接近150只股票跌停。房地产、证券、银行板块是遭遇投资者抛售的主要阵地，VN30指数（越南市值最大的30家上市公司）成 分股中的14只银行股有8只跌停。 作为背景，胡志明证券交易所涨跌停限制为±7%。 综合各方分析，越南市场周一的大幅下跌主要有两层因素：短期显著上涨后面临获利盘踩踏兑现的压力，此外越南债券市场的违规募资问题也在此时被 放大。 越南政府监察局于上周五（10月17日）公布了对67家债券发行人的检查结果，其中包括5家银行，检查发现这些机构存在"各类违规行为"。 根据调查结果，检查组对67家发行机构的执行情况进行了检查。调查发现，违规行为包括资金挪用、信息披露不充分、资金管理不善、延迟支付本金与 利息，以及项目提前销售。调查组 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current economy shows significant differentiation and a general weakening trend, increasing the necessity for policy intervention to stabilize growth. For the bond market, the weakening fundamentals and loose liquidity will drive a trend of strengthening. There may be some risk disturbances in the first half of Q4, and interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half. The situation where interest rates deviated from both fundamentals and liquidity in Q3 needs to be corrected. The short - term escalation of trade conflicts and the decline in risk appetite have promoted the correction process of the bond market. However, the lack of cooperation from allocation - type institutions, potential bond - selling pressure from banks, and the impact of public fund fee reform still exist, and interest rate declines may not be smooth. The dumbbell strategy is preferred, and short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term high - elasticity products offer higher cost - effectiveness [4][22]. Summary Based on Related Content Economic Growth and Outlook - The GDP growth rate slowed down in Q3 2025, with a real growth rate of 4.8% and a nominal growth rate of 3.7%, the lowest since Q4 2022. Although the full - year target of 5% can be achieved, there is still pressure on nominal growth. Considering the high base of Q4 last year (1.5% for real GDP growth on a quarterly - on - quarterly basis), if the quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate in Q4 does not increase significantly, there may be a continued slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [1][7]. Economic Structural Differentiation - **Supply vs. Demand**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. In September, the industrial added - value growth rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, and the service industry's GDP increased by 5.6% year - on - year, remaining flat compared to the previous month. However, the consumer market and investment continued to weaken. The growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.0%, and the single - month fixed - asset investment growth rate slowed to - 8.4% [1][7]. - **External vs. Domestic Demand**: External demand is strong while domestic demand is weak. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, driving the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value to increase by 4.2 percentage points to 3.8%, which in turn boosted the industrial added - value growth rate. However, domestic consumption and investment continued to decline [2]. - **New vs. Old Economy**: New economy sectors such as the Internet and new energy are growing rapidly, while old economy sectors such as real estate and infrastructure are continuously weakening. In September, the production index of the information transmission, software, and information technology service industries in the service sector increased by 12.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The added - value of the automotive industry in industrial added - value increased by 16% year - on - year, up 7.6 percentage points from the previous month. In contrast, real estate and infrastructure investment declined by 21.3% and 8.0% respectively in September [2]. Consumption Analysis - The growth rate of residents' disposable income slowed down, which restricted consumption. In Q3, the single - quarter year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 4.52%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 3.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among the main sub - sectors of social retail sales, the year - on - year growth rates of many industries such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and sports and entertainment products declined. Although the growth rates of four industries with concentrated subsidies (household appliances, furniture, communication products, and office supplies) still supported the year - on - year performance of social retail sales, the policy effect has diminished [3][12]. Investment Analysis - **Overall Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 8.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, the year - on - year declines in the three major industries further widened [15]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.9%, with the decline increasing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Due to weak downstream and terminal demand, corporate profitability was under pressure, which continued to suppress investment willingness [15]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.0%, with the decline increasing significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The high base from the same period last year deepened the investment decline. Although the easing of the base pressure and the implementation of some fiscal incremental policies (such as the Ministry of Finance's release of 500 billion yuan in remaining quotas on October 17) can mitigate the investment slowdown to some extent, the overall impact is limited, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to decline year - on - year [15]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In September, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to widen, reaching - 21.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to fall to - 13.9%. The year - on - year decline in real estate sales also widened, with the sales area falling by 11.9% year - on - year. Although the declines in new construction and completion narrowed, overall, the downward trend in real estate investment continued, increasing the need for policy support [19].

全年实现5%的增速目标并不困难，难点仍在于弥合微观感受 和宏观统计之间的温差。一个能够被微观主体及各个部门充分 感知的4%增长，可能比一个外生动力拉动的5%增长更难，但 也将更具长期意义，它能为增长中枢的上行打下更好的基础。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 2025年前三季度，GDP同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别加快0.2、0.4个百分点。分季度看，2025年一、二、三季度GDP同比增速分别为 5.4%、5.2%、4.8%。 10月20日，国家统计局公布了上述中国经济增长成绩单。国家统计局在数据发布当天发文表示，三季度GDP增速回落是多种因素共同作用的结果，实 现全年目标仍有较多有利条件。放眼全球，5.2%的经济增长水平在主要经济体中名列前茅。中国经济是一片大海，而不是一个小池塘，能够经受住风 吹浪打甚至狂风骤雨的考验。 拆分来看， 5.2%的GDP增速传递出多重信号 ：在拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"中，消费已稳定成为第一大动力；消费在稳定增长过程中仍面临一系列 挑战，有待相关政策进一步出台；中国经济在2025年乃至"十五五"时期，仍有强大的增长韧性。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示 ...

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

Economic Overview - The national economy is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend in 2023, with GDP growth reaching a cumulative rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, exceeding market expectations of 4.8%[2] - Industrial production has significantly rebounded, with a monthly growth of 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, and surpassing the market forecast of 5.23%[2] Demand and Consumption - Weak demand remains a major constraint on economic recovery, with retail sales growing only 3.0% year-on-year in September, down from 3.4% in August, and below the expected 3.11%[2] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first three quarters stands at 4.5%, indicating a continuous slowdown since May[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has declined by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, falling short of the expected 0.03% growth, with manufacturing investment at 4.0%, down from 5.1%[2] - Infrastructure investment has also weakened, with a cumulative growth of only 1.1%, significantly below the previous 2.0%[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment has been the largest drag on the economy, with a cumulative decline of 13.9% in the first three quarters, worsening from a 12.9% drop previously[2] - Core indicators such as new construction and sales in the real estate sector continue to show contraction, reflecting a lack of market confidence[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to fall below 5% due to high base effects from last year and ongoing weak demand[2] - The government may need to implement additional policies to stimulate demand and support economic recovery, especially in consumption and investment sectors[2]