美国至7月9日10年期国债竞拍-得标利率配置百分比 94.68%，前值30.58%。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 继续压平各类凸点，但关键期限或难以突破关键 点位 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期（6 月 11 日-7 月 8 日）债市的行情主要体现在压缩各类凸点上。二季度以来资金面维持 整体宽松，但债市对此已充分定价，资金面继续向下宽松与政策利率倒挂的概率不高，相反资 金面如有边际变化，则直接对债市构成挑战。三季度 10 年期国债能否突破关键点位，主要看 基本面和贸易摩擦的反复。当前货币难以为收益率进一步下行提供动力，10 年期国债收益率预 计继续在 1.6%-1.65%之间震荡，7 月份债市可能继续压平各类利差，关注收益率曲线以及各类 凸点机会，8 月-9 月随着基本面的变化以及贸易信息的落地，债市可能进一步打开空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续压平各类凸点，但关键期限或难以突破关 2] 键点位 [Table_Summa ...

【导读】 债券通"南向通"扩容，基金、券商等布局香港债券市场渠道便利化 中国基金报记者 吴娟娟 中国人民银行金融市场司副司长江会芬日前宣布三项对外开放优化措施，其中包括完善债券 通"南向通"运行机制，支持更多境内投资者投资离岸债券市场，将扩大境内投资者范围至券 商、基金、保险、理财等4类非银机构。相关措施将于2025年8月25日生效。 债券通"南向通"扩容后，基金、券商等非银机构对境外债券的布局便利化。有机构预测，机 构类型扩容之后，债券通"南向通"年度额度或也将扩容。 境内投资者布局境外债券渠道便利化 债券通"南向通"扩容前，其面向的内地投资机构包含两类：首先是41家银行类金融机构，均 为中国人民银行公开市场业务一级交易商。此外，合格境内机构投资者（QDII）和人民币合 格境内机构投资者（RQDII）也可通过"南向通"开展境外债券投资。在债券通"南向通"安排 下，内地投资机构的交易对手方为香港金融管理局指定的"南向通"做市商。 景顺董事总经理、亚太区固定收益主管黄嘉诚表示，债券"南向通" 扩容为非银机构拓宽了全 球资产配置渠道，有助于构建跨市场、跨币种的多元化投资组合，提升资产配置灵活性和收 益潜力。多币种 ...

超配全球股票，看淡美元。 日前，渣打银行财富方案部日前发布了主题为"美元转向，运筹决胜"的《2025年下半年全球市场展望》。 展望指出，从宏观层面来看，全球央行放宽政策、美国经济很大机会软着陆及美元走弱都有利于风险资产，渣 打继续看好全球股票，并将亚洲（除日本）股票上调至超配。 继续看好全球股票 由于美元预计走弱，渣打看好欧元、英镑和日元，以及5-7年期的美元债券，并将新兴市场本币债上调至超 配。此外，美国重新加征关税、通胀和经济数据疲软是主要风险，黄金和另类投资策略作为有吸引力的多元化 投资工具，有助于降低暂时的波动。 渣打银行北亚区首席投资总监郑子丰表示，当前，全球的投资环境仍然充满不确定性。今年以来，"去美元 化"的结构性风险备受关注，美元的走弱促使更多资金流入新兴市场，"我们预计包括中国和韩国在内的亚洲 （除日本）股票市场将表现领先"。 同时，郑子丰提到，在进行资产配置时，建议投资者不仅要考虑资产类别的多样化，还需要有地域的多样化， 通过多元化的资产配置维持长期的卓越回报。 值得注意的是，在美国经济软着陆的基本情境下，渣打仍然认为股票有进一步上行的空间，因此倾向于略微看 好股市多于固定收益。 在固定收 ...

债券通迎多项对外开放优化举措；资金面依旧宽松，债市震荡走弱 【内容摘要】 7 月 8 日，资金面依旧宽松；受股债跷跷板效应压制，债市整体震荡走弱；转 债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区项目】 近日， 国家发改委等三部门印发《关于开展零碳园区建设的通知》。《通知》提出，国家发改委将统 筹利用现有资金渠道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励政策性银行对符合条件的项目给予中长期信 贷支持。支持符合条件的企业发行债券用于零碳园区建设。 【国家发改委新增下达百亿以工代赈中央投资】国家发改委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算 内投资，开展以工代赈加力扩围促进重点群体就业增收行动，支持 26 个省（区、市)和新疆生 产建设兵团实施 1975 个项目，预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，助力 31 万名重点人群稳就业促 增收。 【央行、香港金管局宣布三项对外开放优化措施】7 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in performance, with economic data having minimal impact on market movements. The overall environment has not shown a significant turning point, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the bond market in the short term [1][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.19% at 121.090, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% at 109.050, and the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 106.160. The 2-year main contract remained flat at 102.464 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds generally rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.8635%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.646% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.38 basis points to 4.401% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields, except for ultra-long maturities, generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.9 basis points to 1.498% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Gansu Province's local bond auction results showed bid multiples exceeding 26 times, with the 20-year bond yielding 2.04% and the 10-year bond yielding 1.74% [5]. - Jilin Province's local bond auction also had bid multiples over 26 times, with the 7-year bond yielding 1.65% [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 755 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.313% and the 7-day rate increasing by 0.9 basis points to 1.464% [6]. Economic Indicators - June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, while PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from a 1.0% drop to 0.5% [8]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, with overall trading density decreasing compared to June. The market lacks short-term catalysts, and the potential for rate declines may be limited [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market, although the space for growth is limited due to low credit spreads [9].

Group 1 - The junk bond market is signaling optimism similar to the U.S. stock market, with the spread between junk bonds and government bonds narrowing to a historical low of approximately 2.88 percentage points, the lowest since 2021 [1][2] - Data from FactSet indicates that the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF achieved a total return of 5% in the first half of 2025, while the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) recorded a total return of 4.8%, with a monthly return of 2% in June, marking the best monthly performance since July 2024 [2] - Nicholas Colas suggests that the current narrowing of spreads reflects a high level of economic confidence, similar to that seen in 2021 during strong fiscal and monetary support [2] Group 2 - Despite concerns over tariff policies, industry experts believe the impact on the U.S. economy is manageable, and tariffs are not expected to trigger a recession [3] - The current yield on U.S. junk bonds is approximately 7%, but it may fluctuate with changes in spreads, indicating a tighter credit market compared to pre-2008 financial crisis conditions [3] - Michael Chang expresses a cautious outlook on the retail sector due to exposure to tariffs, while favoring defensive high-yield sectors such as healthcare, food and beverage, and utilities to mitigate potential volatility [3]

Group 1 - Gansu issued 20-year special local bonds with a scale of 29.7557 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 1.87, with an expected multiple of 2.20 [1] - Gansu issued another 20-year special local bonds with a scale of 108.9729 billion, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 1.89, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1] - Gansu issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 96.2779 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7400%, and a marginal multiple of 1.26, with an expected multiple of 2.07 [1]

吉林发行7年期一般债地方债，规模3.7083亿元，发行利率1.6500%，边际倍数1.94倍，倍数预期1.68。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1372.850, down by 5.924 or 0.43% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1111.436, down by 4.702 or 0.42% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3308.800, down by 2.200 or 0.07% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.765, down by 0.160 or 0.43% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.172, down by 0.01% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.358, down by 0.05% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.875, up by 0.22% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.653, up by 0.02% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, up by 0.08% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 108770.990, down by 151.990 or 0.14% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 87.300, down by 0.460 or 0.52% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2604.120, down by 11.130 or 0.43% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.306, down by 0.005 or 0.21% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.903 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.985, down by 0.002 or 0.05% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.410, down by 0.006 or 0.14% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.937, down by 0.009 or 0.18% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.632, down by 0.002 or 0.04% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.642, up by 0.036 or 1.40% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.363, up by 0.041 or 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.561, up by 0.044 or 1.25% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.481, down by 0.005 or 0.34% [7]