1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

国外 1. 花旗：预计9月核心通胀将有所降温 花旗经济学家预计，9月份核心CPI将上涨0.28%，低于8月份的0.35%。虽然关税可能会使商品价格保持 坚挺，但住房通胀放缓应会缓解整体服务通胀。政府关门可能会推迟数据的发布，但花旗表示，劳动力 市场走软和房价降温降低了持续通胀的风险。 2. 巴克莱：黄金上涨反映市场对现有财政与货币秩序的不信任 巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha在一份报告中表示，今年黄金价格的上涨，标志着市场对现有财 政和货币秩序的不信任感正在加剧。他指出，四个主要经济体——美国、英国、法国和日本——的债务 负担均超过各自GDP的100%，而它们的财政状况仍在恶化。他补充说："最重要的是，几乎没有政治意 愿去进行财政整顿。"与此同时，其他传统的避险资产，例如日元和瑞士法郎，正在失去部分吸引力。 Rajadhyaksha称，黄金通常在经济摇摇欲坠或金融市场崩溃时上涨。他认为，尽管金融市场目前表现健 康，但黄金最近的上涨应该引起政策制定者的警惕。 3. 荷兰国际：预计黄金牛市将持续，但"世界和平"可能导致金价下跌 荷兰国际集团认为黄金的牛市仍有进一步上涨空间。该机构预计黄金价格将 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 如何寻找债券市场的合理定 -近期市场反馈及思考 6 近期与投资者交流，投资者更为关心的是"如何寻找债券市场的合理定价"，本文就以上话题 汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 相关研究 证券分析师 黃伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 zhangjy@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.co ...

中证转债指数收盘下跌0.45%，报485.62点，成交金额703.95亿元。惠城转债、恩捷转债、新致转债、 甬矽转债、亿纬转债跌幅居前，分别跌15.74%、9.17%、7.00%、6.50%、6.41%。中环转2、天路转债、 武进转债、东风转债、利民转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、6.32%、5.86%、5.62%、5.51%。 【一级市场】 财政部2年、50年期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.4526%、2.2977%，全场倍数分别为2.48、3.62，边际 倍数分别为3.02、2.04。 新华财经北京10月10日电（王菁）债市周五（10月10日）重回弱势，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券早 间持稳、午后收益率全线上行1BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼1910亿元，资金利率月初仍延续回落。 机构认为，节后债市再度偏弱震荡，机构目前关注十五五规划、公募销售新规落地、或机构行为冲击带 来超调时的小幅反击机会，随着四季度基本面对债市的定价权逐步提升，债市在四季度大概率存在修复 机会。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.49%报113.970，10年期主力合约跌0.06%报107.980，5年 期主力 ...

[Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 310 月债市：枕戈待旦 证券研究报告 债券研究 10 月债市：枕戈待旦 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 日常工具的操作规模，但市场难以实时获取相关信息。在此背景下，资金 面的现实对于判断央行态度更加重要。因此，从 9 月实际的资金价格来看， 央行在既有框架内维持相对宽松的态度并未在 9 月改变。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com3 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 ➢ 10 月资金面的外生扰动主要来自税期和政策工具的大量 ...

债 券 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 如何寻找债券市场的合理定价 ——近期市场反馈及思考 6 近期与投资者交流，投资者更为关心的是"如何寻找债券市场的合理定价"，本文就以上话题 汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 zhangjy@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsr ...

【要闻速递】 今日周五（10月10日）亚盘时段，在周三的交易中，金价一举刷新历史纪录，触及全新高点。受此影 响，短线期货交易者纷纷选择获利了结。与此同时，美国政府陷入停摆困境，加之诸多不确定的地缘政 治风险交织，使得市场对贵金属的避险情绪持续高涨，这无疑将在短期内为贵金属价格构筑有力支撑。 具体来看，12月交割的黄金期货合约价格于盘中下挫70.8美元，最终报收于3999.7美元，较现货金价格 高出十余美元。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 地缘方面，以色列与哈马斯接近停火。双方在埃及斡旋下达成协议，以释放巴人质换以军分阶段撤离加 沙至缓冲区，并增加援助物资，为结束两年战争迈出关键一步。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术面来看，12月黄金期货多头在短期内拥有显著的整体技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是推 动期货收盘价突破4100.00美元的关键阻力位。空头的下一个短期下行价格目标是将期货价格压至 3850.00美元的关键技术支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于4081.00美元的历史高点，其次为4100.00美元；第 一支撑位见于4019.20美元的隔夜低点，其次为4000.00美元。 美联储FOMC会议纪要披露，今 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-10-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.20 | | 202509 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 产业债方面，2025年9月，我国产业债成交量为12677.1亿元，环比和同比均有所减少。2025年9月产业债 换手率为8.35%。2025年9月，我国各等级产业主体的信用债信用利差较上月均有所走阔。 风险提示： 数据统计口径不同；部分行业基本面恢复速度较慢，流动性恶化的前提下，债券违约风险可能 超出预期；若相关政策收紧，需要警惕再融资滚续压力，资质较差的主体风险暴露速度将加快。 发布日期：2025-10-09 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 1、信用债发行与到期 城投债方面，截至2025年9月末，我国存量城投债余额为15.31万亿元。2025年9月的城投债发行量达 5039.05亿元，环比增长0.84%，同比增长9.78%；2025年9月的城投主体净融资额为-105. ...