黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3110 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅为 0.35%，持仓减少 0.69 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 弱势整理 | | | 方坯价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 3.61 万 | | | | 吨。据媒体报道，印尼今年计划将煤炭产量削减近四分之一，至约 6 亿吨，以提振煤价，个别矿企的减产 | | | | 幅度在 40%至 70%之间。受此影响，煤炭相关资产出现明显上涨，对黑色系走势形成一定提振。随着春节 | | | | 临近，建筑工地多数已经停工，终端需求渐趋停滞，现货市场逐步进入休市状态。目前螺纹库存尽管高于 | | | | 去年同期水平，但整体看库存压力并不算大，钢厂冬储资源组织较为顺利，贸易商心态也较为平和。目前 | | | | 螺纹仍处于矛盾不足，驱 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 硅铁 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5620 元/吨，环比下跌 0.71%，主力合约持仓环比下降 8051 手至 10.21 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块整体走势 偏弱，但幅度收窄，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。消息面，河北某大型钢厂 2 月 75B 硅铁采购定价 5760 元/ 吨，较询盘价上调，环比 1 月持平，采购量 2150 吨，环比下降 1163 吨。供需层面来看，硅铁产量处于近 年来同期低位，截至 1 月末硅铁周产量 9.85 万吨，周环比上涨 0.1%，同比下降 10.7%。需求端，节前钢招 逐渐接近尾声，市场成交或逐渐转淡。库存端，截至 1 月末，60 家硅铁样本企业库存为 6.79 万吨，环比 增加 680 吨，同比下降 8340 吨。综合来看，钢招定价提供指引，基本面整体驱动有限，预计短期硅铁价 格震荡运行为主，关注成本扰动及黑色板块整体走势。 震荡 二、日度数据监 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on the price changes of important production materials in the circulation market for late January 2026, indicating that 25 products saw price increases, 21 experienced declines, and 4 remained stable compared to mid-January 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper and aluminum ingots saw price drops of 0.9% and 0.3%, while zinc ingots increased by 0.6% [3]. - Chemical products like sulfuric acid and pure benzene experienced price increases of 1.3% and 7.7%, while caustic soda and methanol saw declines of 5.1% and 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 4.2%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and diesel prices fell by 1.0% [3]. - Coal prices showed mixed results, with anthracite coal increasing by 0.3% and Shanxi mixed coal decreasing by 1.4% [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice and wheat prices increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, while soybean prices rose by 0.4% [4]. - In agricultural production materials, potassium fertilizer prices increased by 0.6%, while pesticide prices rose by 0.8% [4]. - The price of natural rubber increased by 1.5%, while imported pulp prices decreased by 2.1% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend in price changes, with 25 products experiencing price increases, 21 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable during the latter half of January 2026 compared to the first half of the month [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively, while seamless steel pipes saw a minor decline of 0.1% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals category showed a significant drop in electrolytic copper by 0.9% and lead ingot by 1.9%, while zinc ingot increased by 0.6% [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid rising by 1.3% and caustic soda falling by 5.1% [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices increased by 4.2%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and diesel saw declines of 1.0% [4]. - Coal prices showed a slight increase for anthracite coal by 0.3%, while Shanxi mixed coal decreased by 1.4% [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - Agricultural products such as rice, wheat, and corn saw price increases of 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively, while the price of white sugar decreased by 1.0% [5]. - In the forestry products category, natural rubber prices rose by 1.5%, while imported pulp and corrugated paper experienced declines of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively [5].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 黑色商品日报 | | 面上行驱动不足，预计节前锰硅期价仍震荡运行为主，关注钢招定价及黑色板块整体走势。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5624 元/吨，环比下跌 1.02%，主力合约持仓环比下降 1038 | | | | 手至 11.01 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，内蒙古地区较前一日上调 20 元/吨。昨日黑 | | | | 色板块整体走势偏弱，硅铁期价重心随之下移。消息面，河北某大型钢厂 2 月询盘价公布，5700 元/吨， | | | 硅铁 | 等待最终定价情况。供需层面来看，硅铁产量处于近年来同期低位，截至 1 月末硅铁周产量 9.85 万吨， | 震荡 | | | 周环比上涨 0.1%，同比下降 10.7%。需求端，节前钢招逐渐接近尾声，市场成交活跃度难以维持较长时间。 | | | | 库存端，铁样本企业库存环比增加。依据钢联数据，截至 1 月末，60 家硅铁样本企业库存为 6.79 万吨， | | | | 环比增加 680 吨，同比下降 83 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The seasonal trading volume of steel continues to shrink, and the market remains volatile. The black sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are few tradable points in terms of valuation and drivers. The market is gradually entering a holiday state, and the liquidity of the spot market is being compressed. The demand for building materials is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, and the support from demand for the market is limited. The market can be treated with a sideways view, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for the entry of futures positions, and the hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate due to market sentiment. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The demand side is generally flat, and there is little improvement in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits for alloy plants, and the medium-term oversupply pressure remains. Macro policies are mostly positive, and industrial policies provide driving and cost support for the supply of the two alloys. Overall, the fundamentals of the two alloys continue to be under pressure, and the prices fluctuate [3]. - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The coking coal trading volume has declined, and the actual trading atmosphere in the market is cold. The black market is in the off-season, and the trading is mainly affected by emotional funds. After a sharp decline in the short term, some varieties may rebound, but the black sector is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to cash in the spot before the holiday and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [3]. - The steel mill's molten iron production is basically stable. The 47-port daily average cargo clearance volume has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in-plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short-term expectation of steel mill resumption and pre-holiday replenishment has supported the iron ore price, but the long-term pressure from port inventory remains. The iron ore market is expected to be in a sideways and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long term. It is recommended to short at the resistance level [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - On February 2, the closing prices of far-month contracts such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. declined compared with the previous day, with the decline rates ranging from -1.16% to -3.03%. The closing prices of near-month contracts such as RB2605, HC2605 also decreased, with the decline rates ranging from -1.24% to -3.42% [1]. - The spread between different contracts, such as the spread between RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc., and the spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1]. Spot Market - On February 2, the spot prices of steel products such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc. declined to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from 0 to 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed, with the price of coking coal in some regions declining, and the price of coke in some regions remaining unchanged [1]. - The basis of different varieties, such as the basis of HC, RB, J, JM, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-03 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3098 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨（-0.95%）。当日注册仓单 14841 吨, 环比减少 2442 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.41 万手，环比增加 49987 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3261 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 27 元/吨（-0.82%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比增加 9124 吨。主力合约持仓量为 149.88 万手，环比减少 30859 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in commodity prices is primarily driven by emotional panic rather than a collapse in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the commodities themselves [2][6]. Group 1: Causes of the Decline - The core reason for the market crash is the collapse of sentiment in precious metals, which led to a sell-off across various sectors, including non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Two key news events acted as "triggers" for the market panic: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, raising concerns about the end of the "cheap money era," and the easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the "geopolitical risk premium" in oil prices [3][4]. - The market was already saturated with speculative positions and high leverage, which exacerbated the sell-off when negative news emerged, leading to forced liquidations and a vicious cycle of price declines [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Despite the sharp declines, the fundamental support for copper and aluminum remains intact. Issues such as declining ore grades and limited new supply for copper persist, while demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles is expected to rise [8][10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The oil and chemical sectors experienced significant declines due to the removal of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over weak global oil demand. However, coal and salt chemicals showed resilience as their costs are more tied to domestic coal prices [11][12]. - **Black Metals**: The black metal sector is facing pressure from both weak seasonal demand and the negative sentiment from precious metals. However, the rate of inventory accumulation is not alarming, providing some buffer against drastic price drops [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural commodities are less affected by the recent market turmoil, as their prices are primarily driven by domestic supply and demand factors, making them more resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to distinguish between emotional market reactions and the intrinsic value of commodities. The current market turmoil is seen as a temporary emotional response rather than a fundamental shift in value [15][20]. - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding aggressive positions until market volatility decreases and signs of stabilization appear [16][19]. - Preparation for future opportunities is essential, including reassessing the supply-demand dynamics of favored commodities and planning entry strategies [17][18].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.2.2 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BOOKSONOMIC | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3128 | 3142 | -14 | -0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | -0.61% ...