Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. In the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification remain the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to reverse their trend and will probably continue to fluctuate weakly within a range [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the short - term market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be shorted in the short term [9][15]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3071 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract's open interest decreased by 42377 lots to 1.8395 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged at 3120 yuan/ton and 3190 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 10596 tons to 443394 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 16252 lots to 1.4356 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged at 3240 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil production is basically the same as before the holiday. The post - holiday apparent demand has recovered quickly, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking rhythm and sustainability. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The production and sales recovery rhythm has not fully recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed is relatively fast, but it is still within a controllable range [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 752.00 yuan/ton, down 0.20% (- 1.50). The open interest decreased by 7288 lots to 525600 lots. The weighted open interest was 940200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.75% [5]. - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Important Meeting from March 4th to March 11th, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction controls and reduce blast furnace loads by no less than 30% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments continued to increase, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot - metal production increased to 2.3328 million tons. Some blast furnaces were restarted as planned before the Spring Festival, and most of the maintenance started in late February. The steel mill profitability rate increased slightly. During the important meeting, hot - metal production is expected to be temporarily affected. In terms of inventory, port inventory has started to accumulate again, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has dropped to a low level [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 4th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.03% to close at 6120 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 30 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 0.55% to close at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 282 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the rise of ferroalloys was mainly affected by rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of an ecological export tariff on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was proven false), which stimulated speculative enthusiasm. In addition, rumors of energy - consumption monitoring, dual - control of energy consumption, and "anti - involution" near the "Two Sessions" also led to market expectations and speculation [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement due to some factory maintenance and production conversion [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 4th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) fell 2.66% to close at 1097.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1504.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 215.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 1.30% to close at 1672.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 53.5 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated weakly. After the pre - holiday restocking by downstream steel mills and coking plants ended, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and March is usually the peak production month of coal. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening price of coking coal reduces the lower - bound support [14]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may oscillate and reduce volatility. The black sector is weak, and coking coal and coke may face short - term downward pressure. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, up 3.78% (+ 310). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 46920 lots to 414499 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton [17]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 42200 yuan/ton, down 3.43% (- 1500). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 3274 lots to 59650 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material decreased [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market was affected by rumors of rising purchased - electricity costs of a large factory in Xinjiang, causing the price to rise significantly. After the holiday, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and production is expected to rise slightly in March. The production in Southwest China has limited short - term growth. The demand for polysilicon and silicone is expected to improve marginally. Overall, industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand growth, and the price may fluctuate [18]. - In March, the production schedule of polysilicon is expected to increase, but the factory inventory remains high, and the destocking is limited. The price of silicon wafers is low, and the feedback to the silicon - material sector is poor. The average spot transaction price of polysilicon has declined. The futures price of polysilicon is expected to continue to be under pressure [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1054 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 1.05% (+ 11). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 20.656 million boxes (+ 37.32%) to 76.008 million boxes on February 26th. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 6501 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 2742 lots [22]. - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1218 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 2.53% (+ 30). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 306400 tons (+ 37.32%) to 1.8944 million tons on February 26th. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32796 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 27583 lots [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are rumors that four glass production lines with a total capacity of 2800 tons will undergo cold - repair this month, leading to a small market rebound. The demand release of downstream processing plants is slow, and traders are mostly on the sidelines. The industry inventory has increased significantly, and the price increase resistance is large. The glass market is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1100 yuan/ton [23]. - There are rumors that a large enterprise plans to overhaul its soda - ash production line, increasing the expectation of supply reduction. The spot market is still in a wait - and - see state, and the demand release is slow. The soda - ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1240 yuan/ton [25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share market is not indicative of a trend reversal but rather a short-term emotional release under external pressures, with a medium to long-term positive trend remaining intact [1][2][3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical risks, market structure differentiation, and capital dynamics, resulting in wide index oscillations and extreme sector divergence [2] - External geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing Middle East tensions, have triggered short-term volatility, while domestic economic fundamentals and policy direction continue to dominate medium to long-term trends [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The market is expected to transition from emotion-driven movements to fundamentals-driven dynamics, characterized by "oscillation digestion, momentum enhancement, and structural focus" [3] - Key investment themes include: - **Theme One**: Short-term certainty in price increases and risk aversion, particularly in sectors like oil and gas, petrochemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and shipping ports, which are benefiting from rising energy prices and inflation expectations [3][4] - **Theme Two**: Improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, with a focus on sectors such as basic chemicals, steel, construction materials, and financials, especially banks [4] - **Theme Three**: New productive forces in the domestic economy, including storage, computing power, consumer electronics, communication equipment, communication services, semiconductors, and military industries, as well as consumer sectors with strong domestic and external demand expectations [4]

Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of March 4, 2026, in the SSE 50 Index, 0 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 1 company has distributed dividends, and 3 companies do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 300 Index, 1 company is in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 1 in the implementation stage, 1 company has distributed dividends, and 24 companies do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 500 Index, 5 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 2 in the implementation stage, 0 companies have distributed dividends, and 65 companies do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 1000 Index, 4 companies are in the proposal stage, 1 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 0 companies have distributed dividends, and 224 companies do not distribute dividends [1] Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison by Industry - The current dividend yields of disclosed dividend proposals show that the coal, banking, and steel industries rank the top three in terms of yield [2][3] Group 3: Achieved and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of March 4, 2026, the achieved dividend yield for the SSE 50 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining yield of 2.80% [8] - The achieved dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining yield of 2.14% [8] - The achieved dividend yield for the CSI 500 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining yield of 1.14% [8] - The achieved dividend yield for the CSI 1000 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining yield of 0.89% [8] Group 4: Tracking of Index Futures Premium/Discount - As of March 4, 2026, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 1.54%, for the IF main contract is 5.76%, for the IC main contract is 8.08%, and for the IM main contract is 8.54% [1][3] - The report includes daily tracking of the index futures premium/discount levels, considering the impact of constituent stock dividends on the index [2][24] Group 5: Methodology for Dividend Point Estimation - The report outlines a methodology for estimating dividend points for index futures, emphasizing the importance of accounting for dividend impacts on index levels [24][26] - The methodology includes obtaining constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices to accurately estimate dividend points [26][28] - The report also discusses the dynamic forecasting of net profit and dividend payout ratios based on historical distributions [29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. Although the tariff is levied on importers by the EU, it will be passed on to exporting companies, impacting China's steel and aluminum product exports [2][5][76][77]. - High default values for determining embedded emissions in goods will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products. The default carbon intensity values for most China steel and aluminum products are significantly higher than the CBAM benchmark values, leading to an increase in carbon tariffs [3][6]. - From the perspective of total exports, the impact of CBAM on the steel and aluminum industries in China is not yet significant. However, for specific enterprises with a large proportion of exports to the EU, the formal implementation of CBAM will lead to a significant increase in carbon tariff costs. Enterprises need to optimize carbon emission management and use financial instruments to hedge risks [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CBAM will be implemented on January 1, 2026 - **Historical Evolution of CBAM**: CBAM is part of the "Fit for 55" package announced by the EU in 2021. In 2023, the EU passed legislation for CBAM and initiated the transition period from October 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025. In 2025, the EU revised CBAM, including setting an import volume exemption threshold, revising deadlines, reducing the number of certificates required, and planning to publish annual default carbon prices starting from 2027 [12][13][14]. - **Impact on China's Steel and Aluminum Exports to the EU**: China's exports of CBAM products to the EU rank fifth in volume but first in implicit carbon emissions. The carbon emission costs will be passed on to Chinese export enterprises, impacting the export of steel and aluminum products [22][24]. 3.2 High default values will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products - **Core of CBAM**: The core of CBAM is to define carbon intensity values. The EU proposes two methods: using actual carbon emission intensity (which needs third - party verification) and using default values published by the EU (which will result in higher carbon tariffs) [32][33][34]. - **China's Higher Default Value of Carbon Intensity**: The EU has set significantly higher default carbon emission intensity values for Chinese products than the CBAM benchmark values, with annual stepwise increases. China's steel and aluminum products exported to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensities in 2026 [39][40]. - **Underestimated Carbon Emission Cost**: The carbon emission costs paid for Chinese export products may have been underestimated. The EU may set a default carbon price for China significantly lower than the domestic carbon emission allowance price [41]. 3.3 The cost of exporting steel and aluminum products from China to the EU will rise sharply - **Carbon Tariff on Steel Products**: Chinese steel product exports to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensity values. If the carbon costs already paid by Chinese companies are not considered and the default values are used, Chinese steel products will face a carbon tariff ranging from CNY389 - CNY3,917 per tonne [42][46]. - **Carbon Tariff on Aluminum Products**: Default carbon intensities for Chinese aluminium products significantly exceed CBAM benchmarks. If the default values are used, Chinese aluminum and aluminum products will face a carbon tariff of CNY1399 - CNY3413 per tonne [53][57]. 3.4 Addressing the Challenges Posed by CBAM for Steel and Aluminum Exporters - **Limited Impact on Total Exports**: The implementation of CBAM has a relatively limited impact on China's total steel and aluminum exports. However, it has a more significant impact on the cost of Chinese steel and aluminum companies exporting to the EU [65][66]. - **Conduct CBAM Carbon Verification**: Some steel and aluminum enterprises in China have actual carbon emission intensities lower than the default values set by the EU. Companies should actively use actual carbon emission data and avoid using default values [67][68][69]. - **Reasonable Use of EUA Futures Hedging**: In the second half of 2025, EU carbon allowance prices rose significantly. The EUA supply and demand have been tight in the long term, which may drive carbon prices upward. Exporting companies can hedge through the EUA futures market to avoid the risk of rising carbon tariff costs [70][73].

Group 1: Industrial Production Tracking - The industrial production shows a divergence, with the construction sector experiencing a slight recovery in activity [2] - The blast furnace operating rate remains resilient, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year rise of 0.1 percentage points to 2.3% [2] - Steel apparent consumption has decreased, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.5 percentage points to -6.4% compared to the week before the Spring Festival [2] - The social inventory of steel has increased significantly, rising by 9.6% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The national real estate transaction volume has improved, particularly in second-tier cities, with a year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area to 106.8% [50] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase in transactions of 47.9%, while second and third-tier cities experienced even larger increases of 137.8% and 97.4% respectively [50] - Freight volume and port cargo throughput related to domestic demand have both increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year [62] - The national migration scale index has increased by 36.8 percentage points to 52.7% [74] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with egg and vegetable prices dropping by 3.4% week-on-week [104] - The industrial product price index has shown a mixed trend, with the Nanhua industrial price index decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week [116] - The energy and chemical price index fell by 1.1%, while the metal price index increased by 0.4% [116]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially comes into effect on January 1, 2026, covering six high-emission industries: steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen [6][8] - CBAM aims to address "carbon leakage" risks and is designed to push non-EU producers to adopt cleaner technologies [9][10] - The mechanism is seen as a green trade barrier, reflecting the EU's dual ambitions of revitalizing its economy and advancing global climate governance [6][25] - CBAM will significantly increase short-term carbon costs for China's high-emission industries, with the cost pressure ranking as follows: cement > steel > aluminum [6][19] - The report emphasizes the need for China's high-emission industries to accelerate their transition towards low-carbon technologies [6][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: CBAM as a Supplement to the EU Carbon Market - CBAM is introduced to mitigate "carbon leakage" risks and to impose carbon costs on high-emission trade goods [9][11] - The mechanism will gradually align with the EU carbon market reforms, with a shift from free allowances to paid certificates from 2026 to 2034 [15][16] Section 2: CBAM as a Green Trade Barrier - The introduction of CBAM is closely linked to the EU's green transition goals and aims to create a fair competitive environment while enhancing the EU's global leadership in climate action [25][26] - The mechanism is perceived as a response to internal and external pressures faced by the EU, including economic recovery post-COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions [27][28] Section 3: Short-term Carbon Costs for China's High-Emission Industries - The report highlights that China's high-emission industries face dual carbon cost pressures due to both domestic and international policies [20][21] - The transition to low-carbon practices is deemed essential for these industries to remain competitive in the evolving global landscape [20][22] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in low-carbon technologies and industries is crucial for high-emission sectors to adapt to CBAM and achieve green transformation [6][25] - The report suggests that companies with advanced technology and financial resources will likely enhance their international competitiveness through successful low-carbon transitions [6][25]

========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of March 4, 2026, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index[2][15] - The dividend yield comparison of industry constituent stocks shows that the banking, coal, and steel industries rank top three in terms of dividend yield[3][16] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices as of March 4, 2026, are provided, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index having a remaining dividend yield of 2.80%, the CSI 300 Index 2.14%, the CSI 500 Index 1.14%, and the CSI 1000 Index 0.89%[4][18] - The futures contracts' premium and discount tracking as of March 4, 2026, shows the annualized discount rates for IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts[5][14] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is introduced, including the estimation of constituent stock weights, net profit prediction, dividend payout ratio prediction, and ex-dividend date prediction[10][44][45][47] - The accuracy of the index dividend point calculation is analyzed, showing that the model has high prediction accuracy for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index, with errors around 5 points, and slightly larger errors for the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index, around 10 points[62][66] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount levels of main futures contracts, the dividend progress of major indices, and the prediction accuracy of index dividend points[19][21][23][37][38][39][42][63][69][71][75][77][79] =========

Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - The CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in January, with expectations for a marginal rise in CPI growth due to sufficient supply and seasonal demand from the Spring Festival [8][10] - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January but showed a narrowing decline, supported by improvements in supply-demand structures in key sectors and rising international metal prices [8][10] - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in February, indicating a contraction in production and new orders, primarily due to seasonal effects from the Spring Festival [10][12] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in March due to rising commodity prices from geopolitical tensions, delaying further easing measures [19][20] - Domestic liquidity remains ample, with the central bank using reverse repos and MLF to support market liquidity, although the probability of significant rate cuts is low in the short term [18][21] - February saw a decrease in public fund inflows due to fewer trading days during the Spring Festival, impacting the issuance and growth of equity funds [31][32] Group 3: Market Strategy - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with limited potential for significant upward movement due to high valuation levels and external risks [48][54] - Post two sessions, the market is expected to shift focus from themes to policy opportunities, with potential sectoral opportunities arising from policy changes [54][55] - Large-cap sectors may benefit from defensive strategies and policy-driven expectations, while small-cap sectors may remain subdued in the short term [55][56] Group 4: Industry Allocation - The resource sector is expected to present investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and the importance of resource security, with a focus on oil, gas, and high-dividend stocks [61][63] - The AI sector is anticipated to see growth driven by policy support and capital expenditure from domestic cloud providers, with potential investment opportunities in computing power, robotics, and power grid equipment [70][71] - The upcoming policy details from the two sessions are expected to catalyze growth in various sectors, particularly in technology and infrastructure [68][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain slightly bullish in the short - term. The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure are difficult to alleviate in the short - term, while the iron water production on the demand side has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. The holding of the Two Sessions and positive macro - expectations support the market, and the futures still show a BACK structure under a positive basis [2][5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger, closing at 752 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or - 0.2% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 230,000 lots, the open interest was 526,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.695 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and a bullish rebound is expected in the near future [1] - The mainstream spot prices at ports decreased slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 639 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main swap contract was 98.85 (+0.65) US dollars/ton, showing a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend [1] - The basis of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 28.7 yuan/ton, showing a slight expansion. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 14 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrivals this period were at a low level and decreased slightly month - on - month, but are expected to recover later. On the demand side, due to the staggered time of blast furnace restart and maintenance, the iron water production increased significantly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the rigid demand increased marginally. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of iron water. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - Iron ore port inventories increased month - on - month, while the inventory of ships at berth decreased. During the Spring Festival, steel mills mainly consumed their inventories, and the factory inventories decreased significantly. With the holding of the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] - The supply - side shipments have recovered, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to alleviate in the short - term. With the Two Sessions approaching and geopolitical disturbances increasing, there are still uncertainties in the macro - environment. However, after the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase, and the pressure on fundamentals will still be large after the weakening of macro - disturbances [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy coordination has been strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market has improved marginally. In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than the seasonal average, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Although real estate transactions are still at a low level, the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization has increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds has been increased, but the investment structure has been adjusted, and the support for the black chain from infrastructure may be limited [4] - Overseas, consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee have fermented, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. With Trump strengthening his stance on Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors. After the Spring Festival, the rebar fundamentals remain weak with continuous inventory accumulation, pressuring steel prices. However, policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [5] - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered to some extent, but concerns remain. With high inventory and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Policy expectations are positive. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [5] - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, iron ore demand has improved, but the growth space is limited, while supply remains high, and the ore fundamentals are weak, pressuring ore prices. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points. All five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI were below the critical point. [7] - According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, as of March 4, five major construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in January 2026, with a total of about 602.9 billion yuan. China State Construction's new contract amount in January was 399.5 billion yuan, with a 1.6% year - on - year increase in construction business. The housing construction business reached 274.3 billion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year increase, and the real estate business contract sales were 15.7 billion yuan, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [8] - Brazil's Fomento do Brasil Mineração won a 15 - year lease contract for the North Pier of the Port of Natal. The port is expected to start iron ore export in the second half of 2028. It is strategically located close to Europe and has an area of about 396,000 square meters with multiple berths. [9] 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,160 yuan, Tianjin was 3,120 yuan, and the national average was 3,299 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan, Tianjin was 3,140 yuan, and the national average was 3,266 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,910 yuan, unchanged. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan, unchanged. - PB powder: The price in Shandong ports was 747 yuan, down 3 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate: The price was 757 yuan, unchanged. - Ocean freight (Australia): 10.95 yuan, up 0.53 yuan; (Brazil) 24.56 yuan, up 0.63 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): 99.62 yuan, down 0.45 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): 100.55 yuan, up 0.20 yuan. [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,071 | 0.13 | 3,085 | 3,061 | 710,699 | - 77,573 | 1,839,511 | - 42,377 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,212 | 0.00 | 3,229 | 3,207 | 280,903 | - 88,862 | 1,435,635 | - 16,252 | | Iron ore | - | 752.0 | 0.40 | 753.0 | 745.0 | 230,305 | - 9,253 | 525,573 | - 7,288 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory). - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent electric furnace steel mill operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 94 - independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit situation. [14] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have changed. Construction steel mill production weakened, with weekly output down 52,800 tons. Inventory is high, so supply - side benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with weekly apparent demand still at a low level. Policy expectations are strengthening due to upcoming major meetings. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [38] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mill production stabilized, with weekly output down 0.20 tons. Inventory is accumulating at a high level, and supply pressure is large. Demand has recovered, but there are concerns. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [38] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore terminal consumption is rising. However, the growth space is limited due to accumulated industrial contradictions in the steel market. Supply is increasing as port arrivals are expected to rise. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [39]