Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1279.934, up by 10.304 or 0.81% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1064.157, up by 20.048 or 1.92% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3383.300, down by 1.100 or 0.03% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.080, up by 0.130 or 0.36% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - EUR/USD is down by 0.51% at 1.146 [3] - GBP/USD is down by 0.49% at 1.338 [3] - USD/JPY is up by 1.29% at 147.982 [3] - AUD/USD is down by 1.11% at 0.638 [3] - USD/CHF is up by 0.06% at 0.819 [3] Virtual Currencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 101463.210, up by 499.340 or 0.49% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is up by 0.700 at 80.910 or 0.87% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2247.010, up by 19.310 or 0.87% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 1.994, down by 0.023 or 1.14% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond is 3.923, up by 0.014 or 0.36% [5] - The yield on the US 5-year Treasury bond is 3.975, up by 0.014 or 0.35% [5] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is 4.384, up by 0.009 or 0.21% [5] - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is 4.904, up by 0.015 or 0.31% [5] - The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond is 4.541, unchanged [5] - The yield on the German 10-year Treasury bond is 2.532, up by 0.017 or 0.68% [5] - The yield on the French 10-year Treasury bond is 3.266, up by 0.021 or 0.65% [5] - The yield on the Italian 10-year Treasury bond is 3.542, up by 0.015 or 0.43% [5] - The yield on the Japanese 10-year Treasury bond is 1.421, up by 0.028 or 2.01% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 5 basis points, reaching a daily low close to 3.88%, following the Federal Reserve's June decision statement which revised down the 2025 U.S. GDP forecast and raised inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the 2025 GDP forecast indicates a more cautious economic outlook [1] - The upward revision of inflation expectations suggests potential challenges for monetary policy moving forward [1] Group 2 - Spot gold prices rebounded from around $3385 to above $3395, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's announcements [1] - The S&P 500 index's gains narrowed to less than 0.2%, indicating a mixed market response [1] - The Philadelphia Bank Index saw an increase of over 2.1%, suggesting positive sentiment in the banking sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The cost - effectiveness of chasing the rise is not high. Although the stock market may have structural opportunities in the second half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around 3400, and it is advisable to wait for better layout opportunities [1][5]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use options for hedging and defense. The market turnover of options has declined by 21.50%, and the implied volatility has risen. It is recommended to continue holding put options for short - term hedging [1][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The profit - taking sentiment is rising. Although the short - term liquidity environment may be relatively stable, the long - end may be in a volatile state, and the short - end may be slightly stronger [2][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM current - month contracts are - 8.60, - 9.08, - 19.93, - 35.42 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.23, 0.66, 11.81, 7.09 points; the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 42.0, 36.2, 79.6, 97.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 2.6, 3.8, 6.0, 4.2 points; the total positions change by - 15578, - 1138, - 2651, 2007 hands respectively [5]. - **Logic**: The equity market was mainly volatile yesterday, and the offshore Hong Kong stock market adjusted. The AH premium is at a low level, and the poor performance of popular stocks affected market sentiment. The index shows strong resistance to decline, but short - term chasing the rise is not cost - effective [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [5]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Logic**: The equity market was slightly stronger in a volatile manner yesterday. The option market turnover declined by 21.50%. The high trading volume on Tuesday was due to intraday volatility and hedging needs, not new capital inflows. After two consecutive days of narrowing liquidity, the market is still in a volatile state [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for hedging and defense [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL next - quarter contracts are 47942, 47953, 25053, 62753 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 12693, - 2506, - 10233, - 12885 hands; the positions are 188181, 150785, 118548, 106051 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 823, - 60, - 555, 901 hands [5]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The T main contract opened high and closed low, with a significant decline in positions, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment. The spot bond market lacks incremental information, the capital is tight, and most bond varieties have corrected under the influence of profit - taking [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, it may be volatile in the short term, and the short - end may be stronger; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of China and the United States from June 9th to June 13th, including China's May PPI, CPI, export and import annual rates, M2, M0, M1 money supply annual rates, and the United States' May CPI, core CPI, PPI annual rates, and the initial value of the June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On June 12th, Ant International responded to the news of applying for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, stating that it is accelerating investment and cooperation in global treasury management [8]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up", with officials from relevant departments making statements on various aspects such as cross - listing, capital cultivation, and industrial development [8]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration jointly issued measures to support Fujian in exploring new ways for cross - strait integration and building a cross - strait integration development demonstration area, including cross - border trade and investment facilitation and financial supervision [8]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not provided in the given text [9][13][25].

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Core Insights - The rapid growth of stablecoins and the introduction of regulations such as Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation and the US GENIUS Act have made stablecoins a focal point in the market [2][11] - The impact of stablecoin flows on short-term US Treasury yields is significant, with a net inflow of $3.5 billion leading to a decrease in 3-month Treasury yields by approximately 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days [2][6] - Conversely, outflows have a more pronounced effect, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of about 6-8 basis points in yields [2][6] - The influence of stablecoin flows is primarily concentrated in the short end of the yield curve, particularly affecting 3-month Treasury yields, while having minimal spillover effects on 2-year and 5-year yields [2][6] - Continued rapid expansion of the stablecoin market could significantly depress short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission [2][7] Group 1: Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices - The total asset management scale of dollar stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term US securities [4][12] - Stablecoin issuers, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), support their tokens primarily through US Treasury bills and money market instruments, making them key players in the short-term debt market [4][12] - In 2024, dollar stablecoins purchased nearly $40 billion in US Treasury bills, comparable to the largest government money market funds in the US [4][12] Group 2: Data and Methodology - The research utilized daily frequency data from January 2021 to March 2025, sourced from various platforms including CoinMarketCap and Yahoo Finance [5][16] - The study focused on the 3-month Treasury yield as the primary variable, employing a simple univariate local projection model to analyze the impact of stablecoin flows [5][23] Group 3: Empirical Research on Stablecoin Flows - The empirical results indicate that a total inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins correlates with a decrease of approximately 2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days, and up to 5 basis points within 20 days [6][35] - The contributions of different stablecoin issuers to yield changes were analyzed, with USDT accounting for approximately -1.54 basis points (70% of the total impact) and USDC contributing about 19% [6][38] Group 4: Discussion and Policy Implications - The potential for stablecoin market expansion to compress short-term Treasury yields raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's control over short-term interest rates [7][40] - The transparency of reserves is crucial, with USDC's disclosures being more transparent compared to USDT, highlighting the need for standardized reporting to mitigate systemic risks [7][41] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins may exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums [8][40]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]

美国市场正处于一个罕见的"叠加时刻"：特朗普既像典型的共和党那样大力减税，又延续民主党级别的 超高支出，美股则重现80年代去监管与90年代科技牛市的合体盛宴。 近日，美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新报告中犀利指出，美国政府正在以7万亿美元的支出 对抗5万亿美元的收入，2万亿美元的赤字缺口让美元在5%国债收益率下依然暴跌。市场欢乐的背后， 是美元崩跌、债务激增与AI驱动下的不确定性。 "减税+撒钱"下的危局，美元失色，债务无底 美银的数据显示，自大选以来，代表权贵科技与金融的"bro billionaire"股票篮子暴涨45%，而代表特 朗普票仓的小盘股罗素2000指数却下跌7%。关税、减税、制造业回流、去监管——所有利好政策一应 俱全，但小投资者却无人问津。 这种分化正在重塑市场格局。Z世代和千禧一代面对高不可攀的房价选择了退却，转而通过股票和加密 货币为未来储蓄并对冲AI风险。经纪交易商与房屋建筑商的比值已达16年高点，而20-24岁大学毕业生 的失业率在过去三个月飙升至6%，远高于2023年12月的4%。 特朗普"既要减税，也要豪掷"，7万亿美元的财政支出，配合每年5万亿美元的收入 ...

信息源：本文陈述所有内容皆为可靠信息来源赘述在文章结尾 就在大家盯着中国、日本抛售美债的时候，美国财政部竟凭空冒出个"超级接盘侠"，一年狂扫1.5万亿 美债，比日本全年军费都多！ 可这土豪既不是传统盟友英国，也不是中东金主，但背后牵扯着美国掏空全球钱包的新套路…… 美债困局 2025年4月特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美国国债遭遇了自2001年以来最猛烈的抛售潮，长期国债收 益率连日飙升。 2025年5月，美国财政部资本流动报告显示，中国单月减持189亿美元美债，持仓降至7654亿美元——这 是二十年来首次被英国反超，滑落至美债海外持有国的第三位。 日本虽在2025年2月增持466亿美元，但其国内债务压力制约了持续接盘能力。 此刻，美国国债总额高悬于37万亿美元之巅，而年复一年"借新还旧"的戏码也导致各国央行对美债态度 发生了转变，石油国家转向黄金，欧洲基金缩紧钱袋，美联储自身深陷量化紧缩。 对于美国来说，急需解决的2025年到期债务规模如滚雪球般膨胀，但是特朗普却丝毫不慌，因为一个隐 形巨头已悄然崛起。 2024年全球稳定币转账量高达27.6万亿美元，比Visa和万事达交易量总和还多。进入2025年，其总市 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积上涨，黑色系全面飘红 ——中信期货晨报20250605 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 | 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 3842.4 0.46% | | 0.52% | 0.52% | -0.04% | -2.00% | 贵金属 | 航运 集运欧线 2199.1 | | 4.71% | 5.97% | 5.97% | 4 ...

Group 1 - The overall market trend is expected to show a fluctuating adjustment pattern in June, with limited short-term adjustment space but potentially prolonged volatility [4][60] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a strong adjustment, while the Hong Kong stock market may perform better due to healthier chip structures, exhibiting wide fluctuations [4][60] - In early June, the dividend style is expected to outperform, while growth sectors may be relatively weak; however, from mid-June, growth styles may gain relative advantages [4][60] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to continue its fluctuations, with risk trend models indicating high risk levels; factors such as international trade court rulings and Trump policies will influence market sentiment [4][61] - The gold market is expected to maintain a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation, and is likely to strengthen gradually, forming a reverse hedging relationship with US stocks [4][61] - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the interest rate center potentially rising due to short-term supply pressure, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [4][60] Group 3 - The fund allocation recommendation suggests a relatively balanced configuration, anticipating a fluctuating adjustment market, and advising to wait for the right timing [4][60] - The equity macro-micro monthly low-frequency timing model indicates a score of 0 for June, suggesting a strong adjustment pattern, with historical data showing high win rates at this score [31][30] - The model evaluates the market based on five dimensions: fundamentals, liquidity, international factors, valuation, and technical aspects, with a clear view of changes in each dimension [30][37]