Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but currently, it is advisable to wait and see as the market tests OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, the port price has dropped rapidly, and the inventory remains high and difficult to deplete. With supply increasing and demand weakening, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and see as chasing short after the sharp decline is not cost - effective and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, supply has returned and compound fertilizer production has increased. Although downstream demand has followed up and pre - orders have slightly risen, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the price downside is also restricted. It is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, the price seems to have stabilized. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [11]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high with many new devices to be commissioned. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Although the supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling periodically [17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The spot price is stable, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. With high inventory and a large number of warehouse receipts, the cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and low processing fees. PX inventory is difficult to deplete, and PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there may be inventory depletion, but the processing fee expansion is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry's supply is high, and imports are increasing. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to short on rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 458.90 yuan/barrel, high - sulfur fuel oil at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil at 3255.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Taicang price dropped by 35 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained stable, and Lunan dropped by 5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 28 yuan to 2180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 80 [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory, supply - demand imbalance [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price dropped by 10 yuan, Henan remained unchanged, and Hubei dropped by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 2 yuan to 1625 yuan, with a basis of - 57 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - term long opportunities on dips as the supply - demand is relatively loose but the price downside is limited [7]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber price has returned to the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. As of October 30, 2025, the full - steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 1% [7][9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit, partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PVC01 contract dropped by 65 yuan to 4701 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis was - 91 yuan, up 15 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 292 yuan, down 8 yuan. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, up 0.4 tons, and social inventory was 103 tons, down 0.5 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term due to high supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene dropped by 144 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, and the futures price also dropped. The spot price of styrene dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped by 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 66.72%, down 2.53%. The Jiangsu port inventory of styrene decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling periodically as the port inventory decreases significantly [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polyethylene dropped by 69 yuan/ton to 6899 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7010 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, down 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polypropylene dropped by 61 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, up 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [21][22]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market, and it is in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory [23]. PX - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PX01 contract rose by 30 yuan to 6618 yuan, and the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 820 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, up 1.1%, and the Asian load was 78.1%, down 0.4%. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8% [23]. - **Strategy**: PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see as there is no driving force and the valuation is at a neutral level [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose by 16 yuan to 4586 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8%, and the downstream load was 91.7%, up 0.3%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [25]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term as the supply maintenance is expected to increase and there may be inventory depletion but limited processing fee expansion [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the EG01 contract dropped by 14 yuan to 4018 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 41 yuan to 4106 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.2%, up 2.9%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 52.3 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies as the supply is high, imports are increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has no significant improvement, the rebound momentum of the polyester sector is limited, and the oil price affects the market fluctuation rhythm. It is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results [30]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to increase, the demand peak season is not significant, and the polyester sector is under overall pressure [30]. Methanol Sector - In the short - term, with the continuation of high supply, unresolved high port inventory, and weakened main demand support, methanol may continue to decline in a volatile manner [49]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30. The outlook for December's rate action is uncertain, and market risk appetite has weakened [5]. - China and the US reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues, which helps improve oil demand expectations [5]. - Russia's crude oil exports in October are expected to remain at about 2.33 million barrels per day, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - As of the week ending October 24, US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ may continue to increase production [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.40% week - on - week, while PX601, TA601, PF512, and PR601 futures prices increased [8]. - The spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester products showed different changes, with PX and PTA prices rising [8]. Supply and Demand of Each Product - **PX**: Domestic PX capacity utilization and production increased this week. Next week, a 700,000 - tonne device of Dalian Fujia will restart, and supply is expected to continue to increase [15]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA supply increased this week. Although some devices reduced production, new devices are about to be put into operation, and supply is expected to increase slightly next week [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week. Port inventory increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate next week [18]. - **Polyester End**: The average weekly polyester start - up rate increased slightly by 0.03 percentage points [19]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, while long - fiber inventory continued to decline [22]. - **Terminal**: As of October 31, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the order days of weaving enterprises increased, and the inventory of grey cloth decreased [28]. Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 4.05% week - on - week, and the spot prices of methanol and its downstream products showed different changes [33]. Cost and Profit - The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production continued to decline, while the profit of natural gas - based production was basically flat. The downstream gross profit continued to decline, and MTO remained in a deep loss state [39]. Supply - As of October 30, the domestic methanol start - up rate was 86.7%, and production increased. This week, the number of returning devices was greater than that of overhauled devices. Next week, some devices are planned to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42]. Demand - Affected by profit squeeze, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. The MTO start - up load decreased slightly, and there is still an overhaul expectation in the next period. The traditional downstream was generally flat [45]. Inventory - As of October 29, port inventory decreased slightly, while inland inventory increased. Port inventory remained stable at a high level, and inland inventory accumulated but was still at a low level compared to previous years [48].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently suggest short - term waiting and observing to see if OPEC's exports decline when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, with high port inventories, increasing supply, and weakening demand, the high - inventory issue may lead to further price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. There is limited upward momentum, and the price downside is also restricted. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. - For rubber, the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices are falling, but the high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [18][19]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [20][22]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, there is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [25][26]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 0.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.07% decline, at 458.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 40.00 yuan/ton, a 1.43% decline, at 2751.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase, at 3255.00 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, a 1.62% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 409.10 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, a 2.74% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, a 2.91% decline; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 21.80 million barrels, a 0.58% decline; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 41.42 million barrels, a 3.52% decline [7]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 49 yuan, reporting 2208 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 12, reporting - 76 [2]. - **Strategy**: The port price is falling rapidly, and the inventory is high and difficult to reduce. Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: The spot price in Shandong remained flat, that in Henan remained stable, and that in Hubei decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan, reporting 1627 yuan, with a basis of - 57. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, reporting - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the downstream demand is following up. The market is in a relatively loose pattern. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The stock index and industrial products declined, and the rubber price also followed suit. The long and short sides have different views. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week and down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 63.9 tons, a 0.3% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 40 tons, a 2% decline; the inventory in Qingdao was 42.41 (- 0.34) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 9 yuan, reporting 4766 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (+ 40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+ 49) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decline; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.4%, a 0.3% decline; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.6%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons (- 2.7), and the social inventory was 103.5 tons (+ 0.1) [11]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export outlook is poor in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are both falling. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6968 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was 22 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. The production enterprise inventory was 51.46 tons, a 1.49 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.04 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, an 0.83% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6651 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6630 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 63.85 tons, a 4.02 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 22.00 tons, a 1.86 - ton decline; the port inventory was 6.68 tons, a 0.11 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 317 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [20][21]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [22]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract decreased by 64 yuan, reporting 6588 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar, reporting 817 dollars. The basis was 85 yuan (+ 58), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+ 14). The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase from the previous month [24]. - **Strategy**: With high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 66 yuan, reporting 4570 yuan. The East China spot price remained flat, reporting 4535 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 8). The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 157 yuan, and the futures - market processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 248 yuan [25]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract decreased by 68 yuan, reporting 4032 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 5 yuan, reporting 4147 yuan. The basis was 78 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (- 8). The supply - side load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and the East China departure on October 29 was 1 ton. The port inventory was 52.3 tons, a 5.6 - ton decline [27]. - **Strategy**: There is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the market [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction lies in the unexpected slow unloading due to previous sanctions and recent weather. Although there are potential bullish factors, the overall market structure is weaker than in previous years. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, the short - term oil price is not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 16 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 47. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 64 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction is the unexpected slow unloading. There are potential bullish factors, but the overall market structure is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 10, Hubei remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan to 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock index and industrial products rose, and the rubber price also increased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations; the short - side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.49%. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a 2.8% decrease [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 59 yuan to 4775 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 155 (- 39) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+1000) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5410 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 5526 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 6513 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.63% decrease; the Jiangsu port inventory was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.77%, a 0.16% decrease [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7009 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan increase; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan decline. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons; the trader inventory was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6685 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons; the trader inventory was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons; the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 34 yuan to 6652 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars to 818 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. In mid - and early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 256000 tons, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 4636 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 4535 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. On October 24, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2201000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 31 yuan to 4100 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 4152 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 198000 tons, and the East China departure on October 28 was 850 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and rising slightly. The price closed up 1.56% at 15,625 yuan/ton. Driven by macro and industrial factors, the valuation of the contract is expected to recover [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, being slightly stronger in oscillation, and rising slightly. It closed up 0.22% at 2,257 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - logic support offset the weak supply - demand structure of domestic methanol, leading to an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume but decreasing positions, being slightly weaker in oscillation, and falling slightly. It closed down 0.81% at 462.6 yuan/barrel. After the previous bullish geopolitical factors were gradually digested, the oil market shifted to a market dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 68,700 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 363,500 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [7]. - In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly due to early snowfall in some regions and the recovery of all - steel tire production [7]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output in China was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 22 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, unchanged from the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 700 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels/day [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a 15.65% decrease from the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a 76.06% decrease from the September average of 216,355 contracts [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | +265 yuan/ton | - 875 yuan/ton | - 265 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,232 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | 2,257 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 462.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 29.3 yuan/barrel | 0 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][31][29][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][44][40][46][42][48]

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Supply: PP supply recovery is slowing due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of expanded international sanctions on domestic refinery loads [2]. - Demand: The demand side is warming up, with downstream开工 rising, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both LLDPE and PP inventories are decreasing [2]. - Strategy: The 01 contract still faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract has less new capacity. Long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered, and the impact of sanctions on refinery loads should be continuously monitored [2]. Methanol - Market Situation: The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventories and weak demand. The inland market has deeper price drops as some external procurement stops. Overseas, multiple plants have shut down, and many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit issues [5]. - Market Logic: The market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventories and potential supply reduction (overseas plant shutdowns/geopolitical factors) [5]. - Strategy: In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. Chlor - alkali (PVC & Caustic Soda) - Price and Spread: There are various price changes in PVC and caustic soda products, including futures and spot prices, as well as spreads between different contracts [8]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda industry开工 is stable, while PVC开工 has decreased slightly. Downstream开工 of both products has some positive changes, and PVC inventories are increasing [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Price and Spread: Prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene have declined, while some spreads have changed. Styrene prices have also decreased, and its cash flow has improved to some extent [9][10]. - Inventory and开工: Both pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports have decreased, and there are changes in the开工 rates of related industries [12][13]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is expected to contract due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants. Demand is supported by new PTA plants and improved terminal orders. However, the short - term rebound space of PX is limited due to weak oil price support [14]. - PTA: The spot basis is weak due to increased supply from load recovery and new capacity. The futures market is relatively firm but limited by the lack of substantial policies and weak cost - side expectations [14]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Upward momentum is weakened by factors such as port conditions, plant restarts, and weak cost. The supply structure in the far - month is still weak [14]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved, leading to inventory reduction. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream chasing willingness and compressed processing fees [14]. - Polyester Bottle - chip: Demand is weak in the off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The processing fee is expected to decline [14]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Price and Spread: On October 28, L2601 closed at 7051, down 0.56% from the previous day; PP2601 closed at 6657, down 0.63%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 increased by 22.11%, and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 12.68% [2]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.81% to 51.5, and social inventory decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.92% to 63.9 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 15.74% to 22.0 million tons [2]. -开工: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8%. PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while the powder开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4 [2]. Methanol - Price and Spread: On October 28, MA2601 closed at 2241, down 1.19% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2303, down 0.95%. The MA15 spread decreased by 8.77%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 10.00% [3]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.13% to 36.036, port inventory increased by 1.40% to 151.2 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.15% to 187.3 [4]. -开工: Upstream domestic enterprise开工 decreased by 0.91% to 75.85, and overseas enterprise开工 decreased by 2.37% to 73.3. Downstream外采MTO装置开工 decreased by 9.48% to 78.1, while some traditional downstream开工 such as formaldehyde and acetic acid increased slightly [5]. Chlor - alkali (PVC & Caustic Soda) - Price and Spread: On October 28, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.4% to 4620. There are also various changes in futures prices and spreads [8]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda industry开工 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6, and PVC总开工 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7. Downstream开工 of caustic soda and PVC products has some positive changes, and PVC inventories increased by 14.4% to 63.5 million tons [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices: On October 28, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.40, down 2.3%; WTI crude oil (December) was at $60.15, down 2.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $569, down 2.1%. CFR China pure benzene was at $676, down 2.2% [9]. - Styrene - related Prices: Styrene East China spot price was at 6440, down 1.1%. EB futures 2512 was at 6466, down 1.0%. EB cash flow (non - integrated) improved slightly by 0.8% [10]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, and styrene inventory decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [12]. -开工: Asian pure benzene开工 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while domestic pure benzene开工 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%. Some downstream开工 such as phenol remained unchanged, and others had slight changes [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: On October 28, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.40, down 1.9%; WTI crude oil (December) was at $60.15, down 1.9%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $569, down 1.6%. CFR China MX was at $684, down 1.6% [14]. - PX - related Prices: CFR China PX was at $814, down 1.2%. PX spot price (in RMB) was at 6848, down 2.4%. PX basis (01) decreased by 84.0% [14]. - Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price increased by 0.2% to 6415, and its cash flow decreased by 5.9%. FDY150/96 price increased by 0.5% to 7100, and its cash flow increased by 4.4% [14]. -开工: Asian PX开工 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and Chinese PX开工 increased by 1.0% to 85.9%. PTA开工 increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, and MEG综合开工 decreased by 3.9% to 73.3% [14].