Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks, such as Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's leader's strong stance on nuclear negotiations with the US, have led to increased market risk aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and oil [1][3][17]. - The reduction of LPR this year has boosted the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly and market sentiment turning optimistic [2]. - In the commodity market, different products show various trends. For example, steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern due to unimproved domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand; copper prices may be weak in the short term due to concerns about fundamental weakening; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as import volume changes and weather conditions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices rose strongly due to geopolitical risks, once regaining the $3300 mark, but the sustainability of geopolitical risks is uncertain, and a new upward trend has not been confirmed. The Fed is waiting and watching, and there is a lack of incremental positive factors in the short term. It is recommended to reduce positions in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The discovery that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has increased market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. It is expected that the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The reduction of LPR and the government's emphasis on financial support for the real economy have led to a rise in risk appetite in the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly. In the short term, retail investors' entry may be the reason for the continuous increase in funds. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the impasse of the Trump tax - cut bill, and Google's disappointing developer conference have led to a decline in market risk appetite. The US stock market is still in a volatile pattern, and the upside space is limited after approaching the upper limit of the volatile range [26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The reduction of deposit rates and LPR, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. The problem with going long on long - term treasury bonds is the lack of odds. It is recommended to go long in the medium term but choose the right time and collect low - priced chips as much as possible [30][31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable. Due to high raw material costs and losses, the number of停产 or减产 enterprises is increasing, and the supply pressure is easing. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low and volatile to digest inventory [32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices have fallen. The increase in warehouse receipts and the weakening of the futures market have made the spot market pessimistic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the decline in spot inventory can drive the continuous strengthening of spot prices and support the futures market [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Steam coal prices continue to decline. Although the daily consumption of thermal power has improved in May, it is still in the off - season. The market is waiting for the recovery of demand in June to support prices, and attention should be paid to the support at the 600 - yuan level [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The inventory of iron ore in major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased slightly. The market is waiting for new orders in June - July. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and arrange a small number of positive spreads at low prices [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC has raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean exports in May. Due to bad weather in Argentina and the US, and increased domestic soybean meal transactions, the futures price is expected to be volatile, and the pressure on the spot market remains [38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China's palm oil imports in April decreased month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased month - on - month. The oil market rebounded, but it still lacks the driving force for a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to the determination of the US RVO obligation in 2026 [40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market is weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is in a downward trend, and the supply is stable while the demand is expected to weaken. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish in the medium - to - long term [42][43]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - From a long - term, medium - term, and short - term perspective, the supply of pigs is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44][45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton imports in April continued to decline, and the import of cotton yarn was relatively stable. The sowing of US cotton has accelerated but is still slower than normal. The demand for upstream cotton is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the future. Attention should be paid to the progress of domestic cotton inventory reduction and Sino - US trade negotiations [50][51]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Thailand has cancelled incentives for the steel manufacturing industry, and Australia has launched an anti - dumping sunset review on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is expected that they will continue to fluctuate in the near future. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term and use the spot for hedging on rebounds [52][55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi is about to enter the roasting furnace maintenance stage. The spot price of alumina has risen. It is recommended to wait and see [56][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead - zinc mine in Russia will not suspend operations as planned. The terminal demand for lead is weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze overseas. The short - term price of lead is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention can be paid to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In April, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the export of zinc alloys increased month - on - month. The pattern of near - strong and far - weak for zinc remains unchanged. It is recommended to short on rallies with a safety margin in the medium term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [61][65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - In April, China's imports of copper concentrates increased, while imports of refined copper decreased. The production of refined copper and copper products increased. Macro factors have a neutral impact on copper prices in the short term, and the market is worried about the weakening of fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading [66][70]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The average winning bid price of photovoltaic modules has decreased. The silicon material enterprises' joint production - cut action is still under discussion. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies rather than unilateral operations [71][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In April, the export of industrial silicon increased month - on - month, and the import decreased. The demand is not improving significantly. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds and the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [74][76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply is still in excess, and the cost support is moving down. Although there is potential marginal positive news for overseas energy - storage demand, the market is still weak. It is recommended to control short positions and pay attention to potential supply disturbances [80][81]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, China's imports of refined nickel increased significantly. The price of nickel is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on band trading in the short term and long on dips in the medium term [82][83]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil inventory has increased, and gasoline and refined oil inventories have decreased. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to price fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [84][85]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU and the UK have connected their ETS systems, which will improve trade and cooperation and increase market liquidity. European carbon prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [86][88]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has decreased, and the basis has declined rapidly. Due to supply disturbances and marginal strengthening of demand, PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has recently adjusted due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to be in a short - term adjustment [89][90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from alumina is good. The rise in the caustic soda market is indirectly affected by the alumina market and is unlikely to have a significant increase [91][92]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is mainly stable. The paper mill's willingness to purchase pulp is not strong. The pulp market is expected to be volatile [93][94]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is in a narrow - range adjustment. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile [95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of styrene in Shandong has decreased. An enterprise's device may return soon, which will relieve the short - term supply shortage. The styrene - benzene spread is expected to narrow [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have decreased. The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [98][100]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in North China is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply is low due to ongoing maintenance, and the demand is average. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [101]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price is slightly volatile, and the spot price is weak. The glass market is expected to operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [102][103]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Houthi rebels have blockaded two Israeli ports. The market sentiment may be supported, but the upside space of the EC2506 contract is limited. The short - term market is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of spot prices falling short of expectations [104][105].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

Report Title - Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (May 20, 2025) [1] Core Content 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of thermal coal was -182.4, -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4 respectively, with 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads all at 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt showed different changes. For example, the base price of INE crude oil on May 19 was -14.51, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1386 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) all had different values. For example, the base price of natural rubber on May 19 was -5 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month for iron ore, coke, coking coal; 5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month for rebar), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) all had different values. For example, the base price of rebar on May 19 was 111.0 [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the domestic base prices had different values. For example, the base price of copper on May 19 was 310 [21] London Market - **LME Premium, Shanghai - London Ratio, CIF, Domestic Spot, and Import Profit/Loss**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, on May 19, 2025, the LME premium, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss had different values. For example, the LME premium of copper was 15.52, and the import profit was 72.09 [27] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price, Spread, and Cross - Variety Data**: For products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base price, cross - period spreads (e.g., 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and cross - variety ratios (e.g., soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) all had different values. For example, the base price of soybeans on May 19 was -222 [35] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price and Cross - Period Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, from May 13 - May 19, 2025, the base prices had different values, and the cross - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) also had different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on May 19 was 33.95 [43]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

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