Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts[7] - A new childcare subsidy policy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, starting from January 1, 2025[17] Economic Performance - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in funding availability for construction projects, while asphalt construction rates have increased[6] - New home sales in 30 cities have rebounded slightly but remain below last year's levels, while second-hand home sales have declined in nine cities[6] Market Trends - Upstream prices are showing mixed trends, with crude oil prices rising and coal prices remaining stable, while copper and rebar prices have decreased due to market adjustments[8] - Cement prices continue to decline, with a rising inventory-to-capacity ratio and reduced shipping rates[51] Consumer Behavior - Automobile sales are experiencing steady growth, although the year-on-year growth rate for wholesale and retail sales has decreased due to last year's high base[6] - Public transportation activity has slightly increased but remains above last year's levels, while flight execution rates have shown seasonal fluctuations[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market stability[10]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].

证券研究报告 宏观 出口增长反弹,商品涨势有所降温 华泰研究 2025年8月03日|中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 居民暑期出行需求仍偏强,港口及物流指标显示 7 月出口维持较强韧性, 而建筑活动仍偏弱、部分受高温多雨天气影响,叠加 7 月政治局会议强调 重点行业产能治理,"反内卷"预期调整,上周螺纹钢/水泥等商品价格有 所回撤。此外,地产成交整体仍偏弱,政治局会议针对地产短期新增政策较 少。7月制造业 PMI 边际回落,或显示前期"反内卷"或抑制部分行业过度 生产,但对工业品价格形成抬升,价格指标企稳仍待需求侧政策加码。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民暑期出行景气度偏强. 港口及物流高频数据显示 7月出口或回升,建 筑活动减速,汽车消费增速回落,新房和二手房成交仍偏弱。出行及消费方 面,上周国际/国内航班数同比增加 1.2%/6.6%,百城拥堵指数同比上行 0.9%:7月 21-27 日乘用车销量同比回落 40.7%;工业生产方面,焦化高 炉开工率同比回升 1.1/1.2 个百分点,建筑钢材成交量同比回落 9.9%,水泥 开工率同比降幅走阔至 6.9 个百分点。出口方面,HDET 高频指标显示 7 月出口同比回升,高 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital market continues to exhibit a complex and volatile trend as of July, with macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and monetary policies influencing the market outlook for August [1] - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [8][12] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes potential slowdowns in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and a reshaping of global supply chains [8] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The trade agreements reached have prevented the implementation of higher tariffs, which is generally favorable for the market; however, the tariffs already in effect since April have led to a notable decline in U.S. imports and affected consumer confidence [8][11] - The tariffs have a more pronounced effect on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum, with significant declines in revenue and profitability for companies heavily exposed to the U.S. market [8][11] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [9] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts anticipated by June next year, amounting to 100 basis points [11][13] - High tariffs may constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates, as they could lead to increased inflation and weakened consumer and investment activity in the U.S. [12] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The outlook for gold prices is positive, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks increasing gold reserves [14] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus [18] - Chinese equity assets are projected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved fundamentals [20] Group 5: Sector Focus - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technological advancements [21] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to pay attention to semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [21] - For low-risk investors, there are opportunities in undervalued stocks with cash value and liquidation reassessment potential, particularly in sectors that have lagged since last year [22]

01 重要事件回顾 1、中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢29日晚在瑞典斯德哥尔摩说，根据中 美新一轮经贸会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制 措施如期展期。 8、美国7月就业增长超预期放缓，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，远低于市 场预期的11万人。同时前月数据被大幅下修，显示劳动力市场显著降温。 2、7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议重申 稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月政治局会议中"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"的 表述。货币政策适度宽松取向不变，但未提及降准降息。会议指出，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激 发各类经营主体活力。 3、7月30日，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。 这是美联储连续第五次在货币政策会议上决定暂停降息。鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会 议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。 4、7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值：二季度实际GDP年化 季率初值+3.0 ...

Core Insights - The market experienced its smoothest main upward phase since the beginning of the year in July, with a 3.74% increase and a maximum drawdown of 1.18% [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies and the emphasis on stabilizing growth in key industries contributed to market acceleration and improved profit-making effects [3][6] - Small-cap, growth, and loss-making stocks outperformed in July, with sectors like steel, pharmaceuticals, building materials, and communications leading the gains [3][10] Market Performance Summary - In July, the market saw a significant increase, with the main index rising 3.74% and achieving the highest monthly Sharpe and Calmar ratios of the year [6][8] - The average number of stocks hitting the daily limit dropped from over 70 to around 50 by the end of July, indicating a slight easing in profit-making effects [3][43] - The small-cap index outperformed the large-cap index, with small-cap stocks rising 5.54% compared to 3.48% for large-cap stocks [10] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of identifying companies that only incur losses in profits but maintain positive cash flow, particularly in the cement and chemical sectors [3][98] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive excess returns, with a projected initial pulse of around 20 percentage points, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks [3][91] - Industries experiencing supply contraction and rising demand include upstream coking coal, midstream engineering machinery, and downstream white goods and pharmaceuticals [3][115] Thematic Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the industries benefiting from childbirth subsidies, including maternal and infant products, children's healthcare, and early education services [3][118] - Key areas of focus include digital transformation in industries and consumption services, particularly in regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Yangtze River Delta [3][120]

每周 一景：新疆 喀拉峻 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 就业的"滞"和价格的"胀"：美联储的两难选择 非农数据：下修幅度超出市场预期。 7月美国非农新增就业数据不及预期，更让市场担忧的是5月和6月数据的大幅下修。从历史上来看，此次非农数据的下 修幅度较为少见，引起了市场对数据质量的疑虑，我们通过与ADP就业数据对比，倾向于认为美国私人部门就业市场确实有所走弱。 中国经济与资本市场发展的熊。形势压力如今已然是共识，股票价格反映的是投资者对未来的预期。也应看到中国转型步伐加快，创新持续涌现；长期利率破 2后，无风险收益系统性下沉；围绕提高投资者回报，资本市场改革纵深提速，"转型牛"得以确立。展望后市股指还有新高，歇脚调整应逆向提高中国仓位。 中国股市"转型牛"的关键动力一：经济转型和新兴业态初露峥嵘。 目前，传统周期动力正在出清、触底和磨底，去库存企稳的能见度在提高。2025年以来， 新技术趋势和新消费动向持续涌现，资本开支开启上升趋势。在"实然"不足的时期，解决问题的"应然"是关键，中国政策的重心向发展倾斜，财政扩表支持 民生、提振消费与改善企业现金流；反内卷的背后是经济治理思路的转变，持续优化和推进是 ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：政策预期缓和，钢价小幅回落 2、铁矿石观点：情绪回落，震荡下修 3、焦煤焦炭周度观点：焦炭一轮提涨开启，震荡偏强 4、铁合金观点：市场情绪降温，交易回归基本面 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、美股大跌，特朗普会被迫调整政策吗？ 这个周末，多条消息似乎又给大家带来一丝希望。它们究竟是真是假、影响几何？我们逐条梳理。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、美股大跌，特朗普会被迫调整政策吗？ 2、国债利息收税，对个人有何影响？ 3、成交量大幅收缩，意味着什么？ 先回顾市场：自上周四起，大盘进入快速下跌，此前领涨的去产能赛道——煤炭、多晶硅等——普遍深 调，行业跌幅约5%，钢铁龙头跌幅逾10%；科技板块亦未能幸免，芯片、AI概念小幅回撤，唯有银行 等避险方向逆势上涨。为何风云突变？我们在前两日音频中已提前分析，此处不再赘述，重点看周末的 新消息能否为下行趋势"踩刹车"。 第一条逻辑线：中美扰动。用四个字形容，周末的消息可谓"天助我也"。 上周五美国公布7月非农就业仅增7.3万，远低于预期；更糟的是，5月、6月数据被大幅下修——5月由 13.3万下修至1.9万，6月由12.5万下修至1.4万，华尔街直呼"数据已不可信"。特朗普旋即换人，宣布 ...

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, emphasizing the need for "solid foundation and comprehensive efforts" for achieving socialist modernization [12][13] - The macro policy focus has shifted from "quantity" to "quality," with the removal of phrases like "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," indicating a more cautious approach to economic stimulus [12][13] - The "de-rolling" policy has been officially defined, with a focus on "key industries" and a shift away from real estate-related discussions, reflecting a new development model in the real estate sector [13] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [14] - Recent supply-demand policies have led to price increases in some commodities, which may boost PPI expectations; however, historical data suggests that price increases driven by strong reality tend to be more sustainable than those driven by strong expectations [14][15] Group 3 - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs, but the long-term risks associated with reciprocal tariffs should not be underestimated, as the situation remains fluid and subject to change [17][20] - The trade talks have not yielded unexpected results, merely postponing risk points by 90 days, and the experience from the 2018 trade war indicates that the US stance can be unpredictable [20] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen a significant improvement in liquidity, with financing balances exceeding 2024 levels, indicating a potential for continued market performance [22] - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is characterized by a "see-saw" effect, where funds are shifting from the bond market to the stock market, driven by improved expectations for fundamentals [22][23] Group 5 - The overall profit expectations for A-shares in 2025 are likely to be weak, with a downward trend expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [25] - The profit growth in A-shares is primarily driven by year-on-year net profit margin increases, while revenue growth remains under pressure, indicating a challenging demand environment [25][27] Group 6 - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures in August are expected to enhance the importance of performance trading, with stocks showing high growth and strong opening characteristics likely to yield good returns [30] - Key industries to focus on in August include motorcycles and others, optical electronics, traditional Chinese medicine, lighting equipment, and agriculture [30][36] Group 7 - The recommended stocks for August include Lu'an Huanneng, which is positioned as a top choice for coking coal due to its resilient demand and potential for production capacity increases [37][38] - China Aluminum is highlighted for its strong position in the global aluminum industry, with expected profit increases driven by rising production volumes [37]