Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

首先讲讲黄金。黄金的长周期走势，核心由其金融属性与信用风险主导，目前显然仍处于大的上行周期中。从各国央行数据来看，自2023年至今，全球央行 持续增持黄金，且毫无降温迹象。尤其是中国央行，截至去年年底已连续14个月增持黄金。事实上，中国央行或许是最擅长配置黄金的央行，跟随其节奏往 往不会出错，因此从长周期视角来看，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。 此外，抛售美国国债的交易似乎再度启动。近期，丹麦养老金发言人表示计划于1月底清仓美国国债；尽管其清仓规模不大，但随后瑞典最大养老基金也宣 布清仓，规模约70亿美元至80亿美元。该基金管理着超过300万瑞典人的养老金，其决策绝非一时冲动，而是基于对未来长期趋势的判断所做出的转向。 目前来看，特朗普作为美国总统，前期将对格陵兰岛的诉求升级为关税威胁及其他相关威胁，而欧洲方面则以抛售所持巨额美债作为回应。数据显示，欧洲 八国当前持有的美债规模约接近2万亿美元，占海外投资者持有总量的比例较高，约为五分之一左右。 数据来源：Wind，数据截至2026年1月 大家可能也关注到了近期的一些重大事件，在此我们稍作分享与点评。美国总统近期对格陵兰岛的态度出现大幅反转：前期表态强硬，后续则放 ...

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：库存去化 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位高波 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 12 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

2026年01月30日 星期五 商品期货早班车 期货研究 市场表现：昨日锡价大幅冲高回落。 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周四贵金属夜盘大幅震荡。 金 属 基本面：微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑；美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门； 世界黄金协会：全球黄金需求首破 5000 吨，散户和机构成购金主力。。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库存从 27183 吨增 至 27814 吨；印度 11 月白银进口约 750 吨左右，10 月进口修正为 1898 吨。 交易策略：特朗普政策多变引发资金抛售美债，金价稳步上行，建议做多；白银投机情绪浓烈，伦敦地区库 存紧张情况逐步缓 ...

Group 1 - The core message from China Gold Coin Group emphasizes the significant rise in precious metal raw material prices, urging collectors to invest rationally and manage risks [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown volatility, with copper and precious metals leading the gains. Notable performances include Western Gold with four consecutive trading limits and China Gold with five consecutive trading limits [4] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that Chinese investors are expected to purchase a total of 432 tons of gold bars and coins in 2025, marking a 28% increase from 2024 and setting a new annual record [7] Group 2 - On January 29, international gold prices surged significantly, with spot and futures prices both exceeding $5,500 per ounce. Gold futures even surpassed $5,600 per ounce at one point [8] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen sharply, reaching historical highs. Major brands reported prices for pure gold exceeding 1,700 RMB per gram, with increases ranging from 88 to 94 RMB per gram compared to the previous day [10] - Investment experts advise investors to approach gold price fluctuations with caution, emphasizing the importance of understanding risks and aligning investments with personal risk tolerance and long-term goals [12]

Group 1 - The company plans to repurchase shares through centralized bidding, with a total amount between 200 million and 400 million yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 16.84 yuan per share, which is 38.15% higher than the current price of 12.19 yuan [1] - The company has seen a cumulative stock price increase of 12.87% this year [1] - The main business of the company includes non-ferrous metal processing, with revenue composition from copper wire (48.35%), copper and copper alloy products (41.61%), and rare earth permanent magnet products (1.04%) [1] Group 2 - As of January 20, the number of shareholders is 139,900, a decrease of 2.28%, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.33% to 12,353 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.765 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.09%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 104.37% to 588 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 930 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 465 million yuan distributed in the past three years [3]

黄金相关机构表态偏乐观，华西证券认为受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨，根据历史年度涨幅测算，中性情景下2026年金价可能分别上 涨7%、23%和34%。铜、铝等基本金属方面，高盛警告涨势或面临逆风，其调查显示铜加工企业订单量 下降10%至30%，电网订单也在放缓。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）紧密跟踪中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7条指数组 成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的50家上市公司证券作为指数样本，前十大重仓 股包括山东黄金、中金黄金、兴业银锡等贵金属龙头。 1月29日，沪深震荡调整，贵金属概念延续强势；截至14：20，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨1.52%， 盘中最高涨超4%。个股方面，铜陵有色、湖南黄金、西部黄金、盛和资源、云南铜业、北方铜业涨 停，白银有色涨超 9%，江西铜业涨超 8%，北方稀土涨超 7%，中金黄金涨超 6%。 消息面上，有色金属市场延续强势，景气度持续攀升，呈现由贵金属引领、部分小金属接力的态势。1 月29日，伦敦现货黄金一度逼近5600美元/盎司，再创历史新高，伦敦现货白 ...

据交易所数据显示， 云南铜业连续两个交易日涨停，晋级2连板。该股今日于13：00封涨停，成交额 58.78亿元，换手率10.58%。金融界App AI线索挖掘：近期有色板块盘中拉升，铜方向领涨，相关个股 表现活跃；沪铜主力合约价格上涨，再创历史新高，市场对铜相关资产关注度提升，是该股连板的动 因。 风险提示：连板股波动剧烈，注意追高风险，理性投资！（注：以上由AI基于交易所等公开数据 生成，内容不构成投资建议。） ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 5 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游低位采买意愿增强，宽幅震荡延续 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 2 ...