1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

首席点评： 黄金原油双反弹 国家统计局发布数据显示， 11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上 月下降 0.6 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。中国宏观经 济论坛（ CMF ）发布年度报告认为， 2025 年中国经济奋力寻求突破，基本实现预期发展目标。展望 2026 年，中国经济 发展面临三大新机遇——"十五五"规划的开启和适度超前布局将打开全新增长空间、更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政 策蓄势待发、微观市场主体将在宏观经济回暖基础上进发新的活力。《报告》建议，设定 2026 年经济社会发展目标时宜审 慎乐观，以"十五五"开启为契机，设定跨周期区间组合目标。 重点品种： 股指、铜、原油 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指上涨为主，农林牧渔板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交额 1.60 万亿元。 资金方面， 11 月 27 日融资余额增加 27.51 亿元至 24550.16 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长 期方向。 11 月以来"权重走 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals sector, focusing on gold and silver, as well as other base metals like copper and aluminum, and the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and nickel. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals Market - In the early stages of interest rate cuts, gold dominates the market while silver follows. As inflation expectations rise in the later stages, silver begins to catch up with gold, indicating a transition into the second phase of the rate cut trade, which is supported by improving economic expectations [1][2][3]. - The expectation of a weaker dollar is anticipated to trigger a second wave of bullish trends in the non-ferrous metals market, with silver expected to outperform and gradually influence copper and aluminum prices [1][3]. - Silver stocks are expected to perform strongly, similar to gold stocks in the previous year, due to a resonance between valuation and earnings [4]. Specific Company Recommendations - Key silver industry stocks in the A-share market include: - **Shengda Resources**: Approximately 50% gross profit margin, significant performance inflection expected in the next 3-4 quarters [5][6]. - **Xingye Mining**: Holds 40% of China's silver reserves, the second-largest resource endowment globally [5][6]. - **Shan Jin International**: Notable for its gold-silver resonance characteristics, expected to have significant valuation differences in a growing market [5][6]. Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are expected to stabilize around $4,000, with significant valuation recovery potential for gold stocks, which have returned to early-year levels (approximately 15x PE for current and 10x PE for long-term) [7][8]. - Recommended gold stocks include **Zhongjin Gold**, **Shan Jin International**, **Chifeng Jilong Gold**, **Shandong Gold**, and **Zhaojin Mining** [8]. Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices recently broke through $11,000, driven by supply disruptions and negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas mines, with a potential 10% production cut expected [9]. - The copper market is anticipated to remain tight, supporting higher prices, with current valuations around 12x, which is considered low compared to historical averages [9]. Aluminum Market Outlook - Aluminum is viewed as the most cost-effective metal, with prices expected to recover significantly from previous crisis levels. Current prices are projected to be in the $24,000-$25,000 range [10][11]. - Companies to watch in the aluminum sector include **Yun Aluminum**, **Shenhuo**, and **China Hongqiao** [11]. Energy Metals Sector - The lithium carbonate industry is optimistic, with expectations for price increases in 2026 compared to 2025, despite short-term supply disruptions [12][13]. - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include **Tianhua New Energy**, **Dadong Mining**, and **Huaou Cobalt** for high elasticity, and **China Molybdenum** for stability [13][14]. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices are at historical lows, but there is potential for recovery due to improving demand from electric vehicles and overseas markets [13][14]. - **Huayou Cobalt** is highlighted for its potential to double nickel production in the next two to three years, with significant profit growth expected [14][15]. Additional Important Points - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and base metals markets is bullish, driven by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts and inflation expectations, which are expected to create favorable conditions for investment in these sectors [1][2][3][4][9].

欧佩克+同意明年保持产量稳定，8个主要产油国重申明年一季度暂停增产 欧佩克+成员国在昨日的会议上同意维持2026年全集团范围内的石油产量配额不变，并同意建立一个评 估成员国最大石油生产能力的机制。 根据另一份声明，此前于2023年4月和11月宣布额外自愿调整产量的8个欧佩克+成员国，即沙特、俄罗 斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼，于昨日举行了线上会议，评估全球市 场状况和前景。这8个国家重申了他们在2025年11月2日的决定，即由于季节性原因，将暂停2026年1 月、2月和3月的增产计划。 齐盛期货分析师高健表示，原油基本面目前暂时没有太大变化，对价格的影响依然以利空为主，短期其 他因素扰动分散了市场对基本面的关注度。四季度以来，地缘风险溢价上升、欧美汽柴油供应收紧等因 素为原油价格提供了有力的支撑。受美乌会谈取得进展等因素影响，目前原油的地缘风险溢价已经显著 回落。如果冲突结束，欧美围绕俄罗斯的相关制裁可能会解除，供应过剩局面大概率将加剧，油价也将 面临较大的回调风险。当然，美国、乌克兰和俄罗斯对和平协议的态度仍然存在不确定性，后期要持续 关注局势变化。 铜价创历史新高，仍有做多机会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the center of copper prices is likely to continue rising. However, with the TC remaining at -$40 per ton, mine - end disturbances may not be able to drive significant price increases. The demand side may have positive momentum under the "15th Five - Year Plan", and macro - factors and the strong gold price may make copper price fluctuations more difficult to predict. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The supply - demand gap of copper is expected to gradually widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028, at which time processing fees are expected to recover. Short - term copper prices are supported by the supply - demand gap, while in the medium - to - long term, they will depend more on the realization of terminal demand [10]. - In 2026, the copper terminal demand will show a multi - polar driven pattern with relatively stable power demand and potential surprises from the electronics sector. But in 2026 specifically, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively weak real estate demand [15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - In 2025, copper prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, tight mineral supply, low processing fees, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the strong gold price pushed copper prices up. After that, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, copper prices dropped significantly around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the second half of the year, with loose macro - expectations, good demand in the AI and new energy fields, and supply disturbances such as the shutdown of Grasberg, the center of copper prices moved up again, and it entered a shock range at the end of the year [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Annual Mine - end Supply Disturbances and No Improvement in Mid - stream Smelting Profit Margins - In 2025, the TC price of imported copper concentrates continued to decline, reaching -$42.15 per ton by mid - November. Smelter profits mainly came from by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver. The TC price set by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in the middle of the year was $0 per ton, slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the tight supply situation at the mine end [10][24]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the production of major global copper miners showed a structural tightening trend, with output generally declining. For example, BHP's copper concentrate production decreased slightly, and Southern Copper, Freeport, and Zijin Mining all had different degrees of production cuts due to factors such as grade decline and accidents [10][26]. - Although the processing fees were low, the strong prices of by - products supported the growth of domestic refined copper production. The expansion of smelting capacity was slightly faster than that of the mine end. In the future, the profit of the copper industry chain will continue to concentrate upstream. The supply - demand gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028 [10][32][35]. 3.2.2 Refined Ore Supply Constraints Suppress Smelter Profits, and Scrap Copper Supply Also Has Short - term Bottlenecks - From January to October 2025, domestic refined copper production was about 1.115 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12%. Domestic smelting maintained a high operating rate, relying on the strong prices of by - products and scrap copper to offset the decline in processing fees. In the future, the sustainability of this state depends on the realization of overseas mine production and the support of by - products and scrap copper [13][41]. - From January to September 2025, scrap copper production was 902,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. However, due to policy adjustments and import constraints, the supply of scrap copper was limited and there was a risk of a slight decline in the future [42]. 3.2.3 The Tight Spot Pattern in Shanghai and London Continues, and Copper Prices Are Prone to Rise and Difficult to Fall under Tariff Expectations - From January to October 2025, domestic electrolytic copper imports decreased by 6.14% year - on - year, while exports increased by 29.44% year - on - year. The Comex premium led to the migration of inventories from London and Shanghai to the US. The Shanghai and London markets were in a tight Back structure, and if tariffs were implemented, the tight pattern of Shanghai copper would be difficult to ease, and the overall copper price center would be prone to rise [46][48]. 3.3 Primary Processing - end Situation Overview 3.3.1 Copper Rods - Grid Rush Installation and Temporarily Tight Refined Copper Lead to a Recovery in Processing Fees - In July - September 2025, the wire and cable tenders of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid increased by 18% year - on - year. Due to smelter maintenance, the production of 8 - mm copper rods decreased, and the processing fees rebounded from 550 yuan to 700 yuan. After that, the processing fees fell back to 600 - 650 yuan but were still higher than in 2024. In 2026, copper rod consumption may maintain positive growth, and the processing fee center may oscillate between 550 - 700 yuan [50][53]. 3.3.2 Copper Tubes - Air - conditioner Production Scheduling First High and Then Low, and Exports Rush to the "Tariff Window" - In July - August 2025, the production scheduling of household air - conditioners increased by 12%. In September, due to the possible increase in HVAC tariffs in 2026, copper tube exports increased by 26% year - on - year. After October, air - conditioner production scheduling decreased, and processing fees fell slightly. In 2026, domestic air - conditioner sales will enter the replacement cycle, and exports may be under pressure. If copper prices remain above 80,000 yuan, "aluminum replacing copper" may accelerate, and copper tube consumption may have zero growth, with the processing fee range at 4,500 - 5,200 yuan [55]. 3.3.3 Copper Foil - Lithium - battery Demand Is "Not Weak in the Off - season", and Processing Fees Bottomed out and Rebounded - In July 2025, the production scheduling of lithium - ion batteries decreased, and the operating rate of lithium - ion copper foil reached a minimum of 68%. After August, with the implementation of policies such as energy storage and "trading in the old for the new", the production scheduling of power batteries increased, and processing fees rebounded. In 2026, new copper foil production capacity will be mainly high - end projects, and processing fees are expected to continue to recover [58]. 3.4 Terminal Situation Overview 3.4.1 Power - A Solid Foundation for Copper Demand and Potential Demand Growth Points in the Construction of a New Power System - The power sector is the largest part of domestic copper terminal demand. According to the "15th Five - Year Plan", the strategic position of the power sector is emphasized again. By 2030, the copper consumption in the power sector is expected to reach more than 800 million tons. The growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar power and the construction of UHV projects will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. However, in 2026, the marginal growth rate of copper demand in the power sector may decline due to the possible short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and the slowdown of UHV construction [60][61][63]. 3.4.2 Real Estate - Structural Opportunities in the Stock Era - The real estate sector's demand for copper is concentrated in building wiring, pipeline systems, etc. Although the real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, there will be a major opportunity for demand structure transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan". The renovation of old communities, urban renewal, and the development of smart homes and "photovoltaic - energy storage - charging" integrated parking lots will drive copper demand. However, in 2026, the real estate sector may still drag down copper terminal demand [75][76][77]. 3.4.3 Automobiles - The Automobile Sector Still Has a Certain Pulling Effect on Demand under the Electrification Transformation - With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, they have become the core driving force for copper demand in the transportation sector. In 2024, new energy vehicles consumed about 1.068 billion tons of copper, accounting for about 60% of transportation copper demand. By 2030, the total copper consumption in the transportation sector is expected to exceed 2.4 billion tons [83][85]. 3.4.4 Home Appliances - The "15th Five - Year Plan" May Be an Era of Both Quantity and Quality Improvement - In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the home appliance industry will face the full upgrade of energy - efficiency standards and the wave of intelligence. The copper consumption of air - conditioners and refrigerators is expected to increase. The export market will also have certain growth, and the home appliance industry will maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 4% in copper consumption during the "15th Five - Year Plan" [92][93]. 3.4.5 Electronics Sector - The Most Important Demand Growth Point - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the domestic electronics information industry will continue to develop in the directions of high - end, electrification, and intelligence. PCB and electronic wiring harnesses will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. By 2030, the copper consumption in the electronics sector is expected to reach 2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% [100][101][102]. 3.4.6 Summary of Changes in Copper Terminal Demand in Each Sector - In 2026, the power, automobile, home appliance, and electronics sectors will have positive marginal increments in copper demand, while the real estate sector will have a negative marginal increment. Overall, the total copper demand will increase slightly [108]. 3.5 Comex Inventory Continues to Rise, while Inventories in Shanghai and London Are Difficult to Accumulate Continuously - In 2025, Comex inventory continued to rise significantly, approaching 400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the previous high premium in the US market caused by tariff expectations. In the Shanghai and London markets, low inventories may lead to squeeze - out risks from time to time [107]. 3.6 Domestic Supply in 2026 May Continue to Be in a Slight Surplus - According to the forecast, in 2026, the global refined copper production will be 2.8166 billion tons, and the demand will be 2.8076 billion tons, with a surplus of 90,000 tons [116].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The copper smelting profit cycle is expected to bottom out, and copper prices may break upward. Recent price changes for copper are +2.66% (LME), +2.07% (SHFE), and +5.64% (COMEX). The domestic copper inventory has significantly decreased, with LME copper inventory at 159,425 tons (+2.84%), SHFE copper inventory at 97,930 tons (-11.46%), and COMEX copper inventory at 41,900 short tons (+3.93%) [5][25] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory depletion, leading to rising aluminum prices. The current price of aluminum is 21,510 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry has increased to 62.3% [5][33] - The lithium market is seeing a reversal in supply and demand, with lithium prices entering a new cycle. The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 1.57% to 93,750 CNY/ton, and spodumene prices have increased by 5.60% to 1,150 USD/ton [5][72] - The cobalt market remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising. The price of MB cobalt has increased by 0.31% to 23.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices have risen by 0.25% to 406,000 CNY/ton [5][80] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37% compared to the index's 1.40% [12][13] - The PE_TTM valuation for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.90, while the PB_LF valuation is 3.08, indicating a premium over the overall market [21][22] 2. Copper - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper up 2.66% and SHFE copper up 2.07%. The copper smelting profit margin remains negative at -1,816 CNY/ton, but losses are narrowing [25][33] 3. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of recovery with rising prices and decreasing inventories. The operating rate for aluminum processing has increased, indicating stronger demand [33][41] 4. Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with significant increases in both lithium carbonate and spodumene prices. The supply-demand dynamics are shifting positively for lithium producers [72][80] 5. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions. The recent increase in cobalt prices reflects ongoing demand pressures [80][81]

其实周五那天的市场特别有戏剧性，本来美国赶上"黑色星期五"，大家都忙着购物，期货市场的交易量 就比平时清淡，结果芝商所的交易平台还出了几个小时的故障，直接把全球大宗商品的波动给放大了， 连到期的汽油、柴油期货合约都跟着乱了阵脚。就在这种乱糟糟的行情里，原油和金属硬是走出了两条 完全相反的路。 先说说原油，这波四连跌可是2023年以来最长的一次，周五最后收在58美元多一桶。核心原因其实就两 点，一是大家担心市场供应过剩，二是地缘政治的风险溢价在下降。听说特朗普上周跟委内瑞拉的马杜 罗通了电话，还聊到了潜在会面的事，这两国关系一缓和，石油市场的紧张情绪自然就松了不少。另外 大家也在等周日OPEC+的线上会议，目前看他们大概率会维持到2026年初暂停增产的计划，短期也没 法缓解供应压力，油价自然扛不住。还有俄乌那边，普京也说特朗普的停火方案能当谈判基础，虽然关 键分歧还在，但局势缓和的预期已经影响了市场。 各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者、专盯中长线投资的老炮儿！最近大宗商品市场真是 把"反差感"拉满了，一边是原油跌跌不休连着四个月走低，另一边白银、铜价直接飙到历史新高，是不 是好多朋友看懵了，想知道这背 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry has significantly outperformed the benchmark, with a cumulative increase of 65.71% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [4][15] - The revenue and profit growth rates in the non-ferrous metal sector have gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year, with notable improvements in the performance of energy metals [4][56] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw the non-ferrous metal sector achieve a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% year-on-year [4][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The non-ferrous metal index has shown strong performance, ranking second among the first-level industries in the first three quarters of 2025, with a quarterly increase of 41.82% in Q3 [15][18] - The nickel sector recorded the highest growth in the first three quarters, while the silver sector led in Q3 [4][22] 2. Copper Sector - The copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% year-on-year [5][65] 3. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% year-on-year [6][11] 4. Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector saw a positive revenue growth rate, with significant improvements in performance, and a net profit growth that outpaced revenue growth [6][11] 5. Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% year-on-year [7][11] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the energy metals sector due to supply constraints and increasing demand from domestic grid investments and new energy sectors, as well as the precious metals sector, which is expected to benefit from a long-term bullish trend in gold prices [8]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...