1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Corn futures' main contract 2605 saw short - sellers reducing positions during price decline, providing short - term support. Northeast and North China corn prices were weak over the weekend, with increased supply. Southern market prices rose, but wheat auctions and substitution reduced corn demand. The futures' main contract faces upward pressure, and short - selling is recommended [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were almost flat on Monday, adjusting positions ahead of reports. US soybean acreage is expected to increase to 85.549 million acres, and inventory to 2.063 billion bushels, both negative factors. Domestic protein meal trended higher with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Pig prices fell, reducing soybean meal consumption, and short - term trading is advised [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - BMD palm oil rose due to Indonesia's B50 plan and rising crude oil. High - frequency data showed a 38.4% - 50.6% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25. Domestic oil markets followed suit, with palm oil stronger than soybean and rapeseed oil. Short - term long - positions are recommended [1]. Eggs - The main egg futures contract 2605回调 after reaching the upper limit of the shock range, with a daily decline of 1.4%. Spot prices fell slightly. Supply pressure remains, but cost support raises the bottom of futures prices. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to inventory data and surrounding commodity prices [2]. Pigs - The main pig futures contract 2605 oscillated at a low level, rising 0.4% daily. Spot prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and prices are likely to remain weak. Attention should be paid to feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Military actions against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East. China's M2 balance at the end of February was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year. China will strengthen market supervision. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased, and the price increase lacks fundamental support. The US allows the purchase of Russian oil, and China will release fertilizer reserves. Fertilizer and energy prices have risen due to the conflict, and Iraq plans to resume oil exports [3][4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but specific spreads and basis values are not described in detail [5][8][10][13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for precious metals in the short term, with potential for recovery in the medium to long term [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The precious metals sector is currently under pressure due to tightening liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve, but concerns over "stagflation" may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal in the medium term [1][3][9]. - The energy and chemical sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation in this area [1][4][19]. - The black metal sector, represented by iron ore, is less sensitive to geopolitical issues and is more influenced by domestic macro policies, indicating a potential for a fluctuating market [1][16]. - Industrial metals are facing downward pressure from tightening liquidity and stagflation expectations, although aluminum prices may remain relatively strong due to supply disruptions [1][14]. - Agricultural products are expected to see increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with certain commodities like soybean oil potentially offering better value compared to industrial metals [1][21]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The South China precious metals index has decreased by 13.73% over the past two weeks, with gold and silver prices also declining significantly [3][8]. - Historical data from the 1970s oil crises shows that while gold and silver may initially drop in value, they tend to rebound over longer periods [9][12]. Energy and Chemicals - The South China energy and chemical index has increased by 1.52% recently, but geopolitical factors remain a significant risk for oil prices [4][19]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [19]. Black Metals - The South China black metal index has risen by 0.63%, with iron ore prices showing stability amidst mixed domestic demand signals [16]. Industrial Metals - The South China non-ferrous metal index has decreased by 2.05%, with copper and aluminum prices under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions [14][19]. Agricultural Products - The South China agricultural index has seen a decline of 3.03%, with soybean oil prices expected to remain strong due to their role as a substitute for fossil fuels [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean balance sheet for the 25/26 season is loose, with Brazil's record - high production and the highest - ever global soybean ending stocks. Future focus is on Brazil's export progress and Argentina's production adjustment [52]. - For the 25/26 US balance sheet, demand, especially export demand, is the key. Attention should be paid to whether China will increase its purchase of US soybeans during Trump's visit to China in mid - May [52]. - In the 26/27 US season, farmers are likely to expand soybean planting due to better planting returns and rising fertilizer prices. El Niño during the growing season may lead to high yields. First, focus on the planting area on March 31, then on the weather and crop growth in US soybean - producing areas [52]. - If there are no major market - moving factors during the US soybean growing season, the far - month futures price of soybean meal may remain in a low - level oscillation. In April, there are still factors to be watched, and in May, the domestic market will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period with the weakest basis for soybean meal [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Balance Sheet - **25/26 Season**: The US biofuel policy is in line with expectations, but export performance is weak. The focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans [2]. - **26/27 Season**: Spring sowing is about to start, and the market's focus is shifting to new crops. The soybean - to - corn price ratio in February is favorable for increasing soybean planting area, and the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates an increase of 3.9 million acres to 85 million acres. Analysts expect 85.55 million acres, but the actual situation may be affected by the Middle - East conflict [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The report provides detailed data on planting area, harvest area, yield, inventory, and demand from 2021/22 to 2026/27, showing changes in the US soybean supply - demand balance [3]. - **Pressing Demand**: Since February, CBOT soybean oil has been rising, and the domestic US soybean spot crushing margin has reached near - record highs. NOPA members' cumulative soybean crushing from September 2025 to February 2026 increased by 12.25% year - on - year, and the USDA predicts a 5.3% increase in 25/26 [9]. - **Export Situation**: As of March 19, the cumulative export orders for the 25/26 season decreased by 18.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative export shipments decreased by 27.1%. Orders and shipments to China decreased significantly. China's actual purchase of US soybeans has not increased as expected, and the competitiveness of US soybeans is weak during the Brazilian soybean harvest and export period [13]. South American Situation - **Brazil**: As of March 28, the harvest was 74.3% complete, behind last year but ahead of the five - year average. ANEC predicts March exports to exceed 1.6 billion tons [32]. - **Argentina**: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the USDA maintain their production estimates at 48.5 million tons and 48 million tons respectively [32]. - **Global Impact**: With South American bumper harvests, the global soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are at a record high, and the balance sheet is loose. If the US increases planting area and achieves high yields in 2026, international soybean prices are unlikely to rise significantly [32]. China's Situation - **Import Cost**: After the Middle - East conflict, shipping costs increased, driving up the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans. Although shipping costs have recently declined, they may remain high, providing some support for soybean meal futures prices [35]. - **Import Supply**: In January and February, China imported 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons of soybeans respectively. Forecasts for April - June arrivals are 7.93 million, 11.5 million, and 11 million tons. Due to strict inspection and quarantine of Brazilian soybeans, low seasonal arrivals, and oil - mill shutdown plans, soybean meal spot prices, the May contract, and the May - September spread strengthened, but then declined after the relaxation of quarantine standards [38][42]. - **Demand**: The slow reduction of pig production capacity ensures soybean meal feed demand. The relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing have increased rapeseed meal inventory, reducing the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal compared to rapeseed meal. Feed enterprises stocked up in advance, and the apparent demand for soybean meal in the first quarter of 2026 increased by about 11.3% year - on - year [46]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the oil - mill soybean inventory decreased to 4.82 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory increased to 676,800 tons. The sum of soybean - converted meal and soybean meal inventory is at a record high for the same period [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction in the oil and feed industry lies in the tug - of - war between macro "uncertainty" and industrial "certainty", the race between short - term supply chain "disturbance" and long - term "looseness", and the interweaving of demand "total ceiling" and "structural change" [6]. - The key to winning in the complex game is to build three abilities: identifying the main contradiction in the macro fog, managing inventory and procurement rhythm in supply chain disturbances, and transforming uncertainty into a deterministic business strategy through financial tools and innovative service models in the stock market [6]. - The overall profit space of the industry is compressed, but it provides opportunities for enterprises with professional and refined operation capabilities to build moats and achieve leap - forward development [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Narrative Dominates Pricing, and the Industrial Analysis Framework Needs Reconstruction - Traditional supply - demand fundamental analysis is temporarily "ineffective", and geopolitical conflicts and crude oil prices have become the core factors leading to short - term price fluctuations of oils and fats, especially palm oil and soybean oil, resulting in a "war premium" in market prices that deviates from industrial inventory and consumption data [2]. - Market sentiment has become extremely cautious, with both buyers and sellers adopting a wait - and - see attitude, leading to a decline in trading activity and a "stability - seeking" mindset. The analysis framework of physical operators needs to be upgraded to a new model of "macro trend judgment first, industrial fundamentals verification later" [2]. 3.2 Supply: Intense Game between Long - term Loose Expectations and Short - term Structural Disturbances - Although there is a consensus on the long - term supply loosening pattern brought by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, short - term, policy - related supply chain disturbances have become the key to affecting market rhythm and profits [2]. - The normalization of customs quarantine has extended the clearance and quarantine time of Brazilian soybeans from about one week to 20 - 25 days, causing a regional and phased supply shortage in mid - early April. The market generally expects a "tight - first, loose - later" situation, with the core game point being the duration of the "tight" period rather than the adequacy of the total supply [3]. - The overall increase in logistics costs, including international sea freight, domestic road freight, and container freight, will be a new cost pressure throughout the year and may affect the efficiency of cargo turnover [3]. 3.3 Demand: Structural Opportunities and Rigid Support under the Total Ceiling - The demand side has entered the stock era, with the end of the total growth story, but internal structural changes have created new balances and opportunities [3]. - For oil consumption, domestic demand is saturated, and external demand and substitution have become new highlights. Soybean oil is squeezing the market share of other oil types, and the core growth point in the future is exports. Biodiesel policies are a long - term factor affecting global oil demand [3][4]. - Despite the continuous losses in pig farming, high inventory and slaughter weight provide rigid support for feed demand. The decline in soybean meal demand will be a slow and gradual process, providing price elasticity space for upstream supply disturbances [4]. 3.4 Industrial Evolution: Risk Management Advancement and Deep Differentiation of Business Models - The high - volatility and low - growth environment are accelerating the differentiation and evolution of each link in the industrial chain. The basis trading has become the mainstream in spot transactions, and the financialization of the industry has deepened [4]. - In the upstream crushing and trading links, the core is refined position management and arbitrage trading. In the mid - stream feed enterprises, the core strategy is to ensure stable supply and cost control. The downstream breeding industry is in a "slow bottom - grinding" stage, with slow capacity reduction and mainly quarterly rebounds driven by the fat pig slaughter rhythm [5].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3 月 30 日，中东争执未有缓和迹象，印尼开始正式实施 B50 计划，棕榈油大涨，植 物油板块集体拉升。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8714 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.30%，日减仓 | | | | | 38768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8674 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.51%，日增 | | | | | 仓 25809 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9930 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.66%，日减 | | | | | 仓 8265 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 9900 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.81%，日增仓 | | | | | 36104 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - South American selling pressure continues to be released, and there is still downward pressure on soybean meal in the short term. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is relatively low. It is recommended to wait for the correction to layout long positions for far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet. In April, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory, and the 165 - 119 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is 383, in Tianjin is 323, in Zhangjiagang is 303, in Dongguan is 323 (down 20), in Zhanjiang is 263 (down 50), and in Fangcheng is 303. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 5 (up 24). The M5 - 9 spread is - 66 (up 20), and the RM5 - 9 spread is - 59 (up 29) [4] Spread and Other Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 617, and the spread of the main contract is - 20. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 274.00, with a change of - 4 [5] Inventory Data - Inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean压榨量 of national major oil mills are presented, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] Downstream Data - Downstream data shows the situation from 2019 - 2026 [6] International Situation - As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has decreased recently. For US soybeans, pay attention to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of March. Brazilian shipping has resumed, concerns about delayed domestic arrivals have been alleviated, the supply of oil mills has recovered, and domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in April [6]

1. Overall Situation - The soybean futures and spot prices have fluctuated recently. The main contract of Dou - Yi 2605 has stopped falling in a volatile adjustment, and the spot price has dropped from 4,840 yuan/ton to around 4,700 yuan/ton in Fujin. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 has continued to decline, and the spot price has dropped from 3,300 yuan/ton to around 3,150 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang [3]. 2. Domestic Soybean Sales and Auction - Domestic soybean sales are sluggish, and the sales progress is slow. As of March 27, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang was 30% (unchanged from the previous week), 35% in Anhui (down 1% from the previous week), 39% in Henan (down 1% from the previous week), and 40% in Shandong (down 1% from the previous week). The remaining grain is much higher than the same period last year. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned again at the end of March, with over 200,000 tons auctioned and a low transaction rate [3]. 3. Soybean Import and Arrival - With the listing of South American soybeans, the domestic market may shift to concentrated imports of Brazilian soybeans. As of March 27, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.586 million tons, a week - on - week increase, and the port soybean inventory was 4.828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. 4. U.S. Soybean Situation - U.S. soybeans have been in a volatile consolidation recently. The negotiation between the U.S. and Iran may take place, but the result is unknown, and the crude oil price is still strong. The upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting report is worthy of attention. The planting area of new - season U.S. soybeans may increase, and the previous USDA Outlook Forum predicted it to be 85 million acres (a 4.7% year - on - year increase) [4]. 5. Oil Mill Operations and Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, and the soybean meal inventory has increased. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market is good. As of March 27, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.53%, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 4.8202 million tons, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean meal output was 1.449 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 676,800 tons, a slight week - on - week increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 2.718 million tons, a week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.35 days, a week - on - week increase, indicating strong downstream demand [4]. 6. Feed Demand and Livestock Farming - Feed demand is strong in the short term, but long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the pig - farming industry, pig prices have fallen to extremely low levels, and farming is seriously loss - making. As of March 27, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 189.87 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 344.24 yuan per head. In the poultry industry, egg prices have rebounded, but farming still incurs losses. In February, the sales volume of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in February increased month - on - month. The high inventory of livestock and poultry currently supports feed demand, but the increasing losses may accelerate capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [5]. 7. Market Outlook - Due to the sluggish sales of domestic soybeans and the resumption of state - reserve auctions, and the increase in imports of non - genetically modified soybeans, it is expected that Dou - Yi will enter a high - level volatile state. With the increase in domestic soybean arrivals, attention should be paid to the import of Brazilian soybeans from South America. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, the soybean meal inventory has increased, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean meal will return to a fundamental volatile trend [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bullish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the current macro - level influence is weakening, but the pressure of new - season Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports is increasing, and the premium has declined, leading to a short - term weak and volatile bean meal price. However, the situation of South American soybeans has been fully reflected, and the pricing logic will return to the cost of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to future US soybean export and policy changes [2] - For the corn market, deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to encourage purchases, and the arrival of corn has increased significantly, with inventory starting to rise but still below the historical average. Feed enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced corn and prefer to use substitutes like wheat. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons per week, with good trading and premiums. The overall corn supply is still tight, and with the support of relatively high wheat prices, the corn market is expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2,937 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean meal was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of March 27, 2026, the harvesting progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 72.99%, lower than 81.31% of the same period last year and close to the five - year average of 73.95% [1] Market Analysis - The short - term price of bean meal is weakly volatile due to the increasing pressure of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports and the decline in premiums. In the future, it will return to the cost - based pricing logic of US soybeans [2] Strategy - Cautiously bullish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day; the corn starch 2605 contract was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2,150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2,900 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Market Information: As of the week of March 25, the harvesting progress of the 2025/26 Argentine corn was 15.2%, higher than 13% a week ago. The second crop yield forecast report of South Africa in 2026 showed that the total commercial corn output was 16.51 million tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous forecast and a 1% decrease from 2025 [3] Market Analysis - Deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to encourage purchases, and the arrival of corn has increased, but inventory is still below the historical average. Feed enterprises prefer substitutes. The wheat auction volume has increased, and the corn market supply is tight, supported by high wheat prices [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bullish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].