Core Insights - Sony Group has reported strong profit growth despite rising memory chip costs, driven by favorable exchange rates and a diversified business portfolio, while facing supply chain cost challenges in its core gaming hardware business [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the December quarter, Sony's operating profit surged 22% year-on-year to 515 billion yen, exceeding market expectations of 468.9 billion yen. Revenue reached 3.71 trillion yen (approximately 23.68 billion USD), slightly above the forecast of 3.69 trillion yen, marking a 1% year-on-year increase [1]. - Following the earnings report, Sony raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 1.54 trillion yen, an increase of 110 billion yen or 8% from previous estimates. The annual revenue forecast was also raised by 300 billion yen to 12.3 trillion yen, a 3% increase, while maintaining the estimated loss from U.S. tariffs at 50 billion yen [1]. Gaming Business Challenges - The gaming and network services segment reported sales of 1.613 trillion yen, a decrease of 68.7 billion yen year-on-year. This segment, which includes the popular PlayStation console brand, is Sony's largest revenue driver [4]. - Despite benefiting from the transition to digital game purchases and growth in PlayStation Plus subscriptions, hardware shipment growth remains sluggish, with expectations of rising component costs impacting the hardware business this year [4]. Cost Risks from DRAM Prices - The PlayStation console relies on dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, which are currently in short supply due to surging demand from AI and data center operators. According to TrendForce, traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 90% to 95% this quarter compared to the previous three months [6]. - A leading semiconductor CEO indicated that the memory chip shortage is expected to persist until 2027, adding further cost pressures for Sony [6]. Other Business Segments - Strong performance in the music and imaging segments partially offset the pressures in the gaming business. Sony's music segment saw a 12.6% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by live events, merchandise sales, and streaming services [6]. - The imaging and sensing solutions segment experienced over 20% revenue growth, focusing on the development and manufacturing of semiconductor-based imaging and sensing technologies [6].

误读"鹰派"：沃什的真实意图是为降息铺路 研报指出，市场看到沃什提名后的第一反应是紧缩恐慌，但这忽略了他政策主张的完整性。沃什虽然强调美联储必须缩减其臃肿的7万亿美元资产负债 表，但这并不是为了扼杀经济。 市场再一次对美联储的动作做出了膝跳反射式的误读。2026年1月30日，特朗普正式提名凯文・沃什为下任美联储主席。华尔街的第一反应是恐慌：美 元飙升，美股下挫，贵金属遭遇抛售。原因很简单，市场给沃什贴上了"鹰派"的标签。 2月4日，申银万国在研报中分析称，市场正在犯下过快定价的错误。沃什并非传统的鹰派，他的核心政策主张是"缩表+降息"的混合体——通过缩减资 产负债表来抑制长期通胀预期，从而为大幅降息打开空间。对于投资者而言，这意味着短期内的流动性恐慌可能是错杀。在2026年中期选举的政治压力 和美国财政利息支出的沉重负担下，降息大概率会先于缩表落地。投资者不应被短期波动吓退，而应关注美股风格切换（大盘向小盘）、贵金属波动率 回归后的入场机会，以及原油价格由于地缘政治可能带来的二次通胀风险。 相反，沃什认为当前的高利率没有考虑到AI带来的生产力提升。他的逻辑闭环是：只有通过缩表消除了"美联储看跌期权"和长期通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for Japan's 30-year government bonds in the recent auction alleviated short-term concerns about long-term debt, leading to a decline in yields ahead of the upcoming elections [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bonds reached 3.64, significantly higher than the previous auction's 3.14 and above the 12-month average of 3.35, indicating increased investor interest [4]. - The yield on the 30-year bonds fell by 5 basis points to 3.585%, while the 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.23%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1][4]. - Over 23% of the bonds were purchased by two large domestic companies, which is expected to support stable trading in the secondary market [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Context - Despite concerns over rising fiscal spending, the auction results suggest that higher yield levels are attracting buyers, indicating a potential increase in demand as political uncertainties diminish [3][4]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 will determine future fiscal spending, adding complexity to the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy Considerations - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point, with hedge funds resuming short positions ahead of the elections, indicating concerns over currency volatility [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring how the election results may influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, as Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is known for advocating monetary easing [7].

2026年的春节年货大战正酣，直播电商的战火也正热烈，但这次的硝烟不在叫卖声震天的抖快直播间， 而是在以"慢"著称的小红书。 近日，久未露面的女演员薛佳凝在小红书开启了一场以"文玩珠宝"为主题的直播。没有激昂的"321上链 接"，也没有助播声嘶力竭的倒计时，在这场充满禅意与静气的直播中，单场销售额悄然突破1亿元大 关。 从流量到审美 复盘薛佳凝与吴千语的破亿战报，我们会发现一个有趣的共性：她们都不是传统意义上的"顶流鲜肉"， 但都拥有极具辨识度的生活方式标签。 在传统电商逻辑里，GMV=流量×转化率。但在小红书，这个公式变成了GMV=审美×信任×高客单价。 薛佳凝的这场直播，核心客单价高达7500元，售卖的是非标品的文玩珠宝。这类商品在抖快平台极难起 量，因为缺乏瞬间的视觉冲击力和价格诱惑。 但薛佳凝多年来"带发修行""淡然处世"的公众形象，恰好为这些高客单文玩提供了最强的信用背书。用 户买的不仅仅是珠串，更是对她那种"不争不抢"生活状态的向往。 同样，吴千语的1.5亿神话，建立在她作为"顶级名媛风向标"的人设之上。她在直播间布置成自家客 厅，像闺蜜一样分享松弛感穿搭和家居好物。这种"老钱风"的选品逻辑，精准 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coherent reported strong financial results for Q2 FY2026, with adjusted EPS of $1.29 and revenue of $1.69 billion, driven by significant demand from AI data centers, although the stock fell 2% post-announcement due to profit-taking pressures [3][11][52]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS of $1.29 exceeded market expectations of $1.22, marking a 35% year-over-year increase [11][52]. - Revenue reached $1.69 billion, surpassing expectations and setting a quarterly record, with a year-over-year growth of 22% [11][52]. - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39%, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost reductions [52][53]. Demand and Orders - The company experienced a "step-function increase" in orders, particularly in the data center sector, with a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 4 [11][41]. - Demand for 1.6T transceivers is accelerating, with expectations for significant growth in both 800G and 1.6T products throughout 2026 [22][62]. - Most of the 2026 calendar year capacity has been booked, with orders extending into 2027 and even 2028 for some major clients [15][61]. Production and Capacity Expansion - Coherent achieved breakthroughs in 6-inch indium phosphide (InP) production, increasing wafer output by over four times and reducing costs by approximately 50% [6][26]. - The company plans to double its internal InP capacity by the end of this year, with current wafer starts reaching 80% of the target [23][58]. - The strategic shift to 6-inch wafers is expected to enhance supply capabilities and pricing power in the market [27][75]. Product Development and Market Opportunities - Coherent secured a significant CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) order from a leading AI data center client, indicating a shift from concept to substantial deployment [28][45]. - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) platform has gained traction, with over 10 clients and a growing backlog, suggesting a market opportunity exceeding $2 billion [32][46]. - The transition from 800G to 1.6T in AI data centers is expected to drive demand for high-bandwidth, low-power interconnect solutions [21][18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong revenue growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by robust demand and capacity expansion [36][49]. - Guidance for Q3 FY2026 projects revenue between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins expected to range from 38.5% to 40.5% [15][60].

日经225指数小幅下跌0.73%至53898.35点，但涵盖范围更广的Topix指数上涨0.23%，创下历史新高，成为亚太地区唯一收涨的主要指数。 软银集团盘中大跌下挫6.39%，因旗下芯片设计公司Arm第三财季授权销售未达预期。 比特币在科技股抛售潮中同步走弱，下跌超过3%，盘中一度跌破73000美元关口后进一步下跌。 周四，亚太市场普遍下跌，延续华尔街科技股抛售势头，芯片股成为重灾区。韩国Kospi指数领跌主要市场，三星电子和SK海力士均跌超 4%。贵金属跳水，现货白银日内跌超15%。 隔夜，美国芯片制造商AMD第一季度业绩预测未达部分分析师预期，股价暴跌17%，引发亚洲科技股连锁反应。Broadcom和Micron Technology分别下跌3.8%和9.5%。 AT Global Markets首席市场分析师Nick Twidale分析表示，亚洲市场正受到华尔街隔夜抛售的冲击，不确定是否可以说科技股已经见顶，但市 场还有进一步回调的空间，这是传统的"抛售科技股、转向防御性板块"的操作。 韩国市场承压最重，Kospi指数跌3.68%。三星电子和SK海力士分别下跌4.14%和4%。 持续更新中 国内市场 ...

2026年刚刚过去一个多月，美股却已经反复上演同一种情景：盘中急跌、情绪失控、但收盘前迅速修 复，甚至重返高位。 据追风交易台，德意志银行在最新报告中指出，仅1月以来，标普500指数已经出现至少5次"快速下挫— 迅速反弹"的典型案例。 这些波动往往伴随着地缘政治、关税威胁、科技股恐慌或AI竞争叙事，但几乎都未对大盘造成实质 性、持续性的破坏。 在德银看来，这并非偶然，而可能是当前美股正在形成的一种"新常态"。 五次"假摔"：风险事件频发，但市场拒绝深跌 德银宏观策略师Henry Allen梳理了2026年初以来几次具有代表性的快速回撤： 1月中旬地缘政治风险升温：标普500在1月12日创出新高后，因市场担忧美国可能介入 伊朗局势、叠加有关格陵兰岛的政治表态，指数盘中一度下跌逾1%。但恐慌迅速消 散，当日跌幅明显收窄，随后两天再度反弹。 1月下旬关税威胁引发抛售：美国提出对部分欧洲国家征收关税的可能性，导致标普 500单日大跌逾2%。然而，随着谈判框架浮现，指数在接下来两个交易日连续反弹， 几乎完全修复跌幅。 1月底科技股Capex担忧：微软财报显示资本开支高于预期，引发市场对AI投资回报周 期的担忧，软件板块 ...

尽管交出了一份营收与利润双双超预期的成绩单，英国芯片设计巨头Arm Holdings Plc的股价在周三美股盘后交易中仍一度重挫逾8%。 这一剧烈的市场反应，投资者对人工智能相关公司的门槛已大幅提高。Arm公布的第三财季营收同比增长26%至12.4亿美元，略高于分析师预期的 12.3亿美元；同时，公司给出的第四财季营收指引中值为14.7亿美元，也高于市场平均预期的14.4亿美元。然而，据彭博汇编的数据，部分乐观的 买方预期已高达15亿美元，Arm的指引显然未能满足这些最激进投资者的胃口。 除了对增长速度的极高要求外，市场情绪还受到智能手机行业前景的压制。作为Arm的重要收入来源，智能手机市场正面临存储芯片短缺和增长 放缓的双重压力。同行业的高通周三同样给出了疲软的业绩指引，进一步加剧了市场对移动设备需求复苏脆弱性的担忧。此外，作为衡量未来设 计采用率关键指标的"许可收入"在本季度意外不及预期，也成为引发抛售的导火索。 手机放缓与内存短缺成焦点变量 许可费"意外"爆雷 公司预计下一财季营收约14.7亿美元（中值），调整后EPS 0.58美元，均高于市场平均预期。但市场更在意的是：在AI叙事估值偏高、芯片板块 情 ...

所谓的千亿美金融资，本质上是科技巨头们为了防止AI泡沫破裂而不得不进行的一场自救式"供血"。 2月4日，据The Information资深记者Ken Brown报道，OpenAI正在筹集一笔高达1000亿美元的融资。英伟达可能打算投 300亿，亚马逊200亿，软银300亿，微软也得跟100亿。 在OpenAI 7300亿美元的离谱估值下，这些聪明人为什么抢着送钱，在Brown看来，逻辑非常直白。 银行不信OpenAI了，巨头只能自己上 以前OpenAI很聪明，它自己不借钱，而是让甲骨文（Oracle）、CoreWeave、Vantage数据中心在内的合作伙伴利用自身 的资产负债表去借钱建数据中心，OpenAI未来再通过合同付款。 OpenAI相当于"画饼"，合作伙伴拿饼去银行换贷款。然而，这种策略现在面临巨大的市场阻力。Ken Brown指出： "投资者已经表明，他们愿意向依赖OpenAI来支付未来账单的公司提供的贷款是有限的。" 现在，债市的投资者也清醒了。他们发现OpenAI烧钱太快，未来根本付不起房租。于是，投资者推高了甲骨文等公司的 融资成本，甚至把它们的债券当成"垃圾债"来对待。 他们意识到，如果 ...

齐鲁大地的又一家城商行发布业绩快报，依然是净利润两位数的增长。 在发布亮眼业绩的同时，齐鲁银行也披露了重要的人事调整。根据第九届董事会第二十次会议决议公 告，董事会审议通过了关于聘任首席合规官的议案，同意聘任张华行长兼任首席合规官，任期至本届董 事会届满为止。 此次会议由郑祖刚董事长主持。公告特别提及，由于公司股东重庆华宇集团有限公司股权质押比例超过 50%，根据监管规定，对其提名的蒋宇董事的表决权予以了限制。最终该议案以12票同意全票通过（蒋 宇董事表决权受限）。 2月4日，齐鲁银行发布2025年度业绩快报及相关人事任命公告。 资产规模方面，截至2025年末，齐鲁银行资产总额达到8043.81亿元，较上年末大幅增长16.65%，成功 跨越8000亿门槛。 齐鲁银行的存贷款业务均保持双位数增长，其中贷款总额3828.34亿元，增长13.55%；存款总额4895.31 亿元，增长11.37%，显示出强劲的业务拓展能力。 在保持规模扩张的同时，齐鲁银行的资产质量和风险抵御能力指标都在增强。快报数据显示，截至2025 年末，该行不良贷款率为1.05%，较上年末下降0.14个百分点；拨备覆盖率达到355.91%，较上 ...