Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to rising international oil price fluctuations, effective from February 3 at 24:00 [1] Group 1: Price Changes - Domestic gasoline price will increase by 205 yuan per ton, while diesel price will rise by 195 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission has instructed major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [1] - Local authorities are required to enhance market supervision and strictly investigate any violations of national pricing policies to maintain normal market order [1] - Consumers are encouraged to report price violations through the 12315 platform [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver futures prices experienced a significant rebound after a period of decline, with gold prices rising above $4900 per ounce and silver prices surpassing $87 per ounce, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the rebound is identified as a "super dip rebound," following a substantial decline where New York gold saw a maximum pullback of 21.28% and New York silver a maximum pullback of 40.59%, leading to an oversold technical condition [1]. - The reduction in passive liquidation pressure due to previous CME margin increases has allowed for a resurgence of bottom-fishing capital and short covering, resulting in a 45% increase in COMEX gold trading volume and a 62% increase in silver trading volume [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The short-term support for precious metals remains unchanged, with the People's Bank of China increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months and global central banks averaging 70 tons of gold purchases monthly, highlighting the growing monetary attributes of precious metals amid de-dollarization [2]. - A projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons for gold in 2026 and an 8% annual growth rate in industrial silver demand, contrasted with a mere 2% increase in mineral supply, indicates a long-term supply shortage [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the return of funds to safe-haven assets further support gold and silver prices [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - In February, the primary precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with gold between $4500 and $5100 per ounce and silver between $70 and $85 per ounce, while a gradual upward trend is anticipated in the medium term [3]. - Investors are advised to manage their positions cautiously as the market approaches the Chinese New Year, with recommendations to wait for market stabilization post-holiday before increasing allocations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ISM reported that the US manufacturing PMI rose from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly a year and the highest level since February 2022 [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The US manufacturing sector has been in a state of low activity for the past three years, with very few instances of PMI exceeding 50 [1] - The January PMI data is seen as a positive signal for the economy, but caution is advised due to seasonal factors and ongoing tariff issues [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the manufacturing index, US Treasury yields reached a daily high, and the dollar index accelerated to a one-week high [1] Group 3: Expert Commentary - Susan Spence, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, emphasized the need for caution despite the positive indicators, noting that January is typically a month for inventory replenishment [1] - The report included numerous complaints from executives about tariff and policy uncertainties affecting various industries [1]

近期股指期货高位回调，随着前期政策利多的消化，多头情绪有所降温。从A股市场表现看，贵金属、 有色金属、新能源等前期强势板块集体回调，银行、白酒、农产品等相关行业韧性较强。从基本面看， 我国经济发展仍不平衡，生产强、需求弱的特征较为显著，需求不足仍是主要矛盾。宏观政策仍需加强 逆周期调节，持续加大对小微企业和薄弱环节的支持。 国家统计局公布的数据显示，2026年1月官方制造业PMI回落0.8个百分点，至49.3%。从企业规模看， 大型企业PMI较上月下降0.5个百分点，至50.3%；中、小型企业PMI降至48.7%和47.4%，较上月分别回 落1.1和1.2个百分点。从分类指数看，生产指数回落1.1个百分点，至50.6%，但仍处于扩张区间；新订 单指数由50.8%降至49.2%；新出口订单指数降至47.8%。相关数据显示，受低温天气、传统淡季等因素 影响，我国工业生产有所放缓，需求边际减弱，外需下行压力加大，中、小型企业景气度明显走弱。 2025年我国GDP同比增长5.0%（四个季度GDP增速分别为5.4%、5.2%、4.8%和4.5%）。从分项数据 看，2025年1—12月固定资产投资同比下降3.8%，连续4 ...

Group 1 - The bond market showed a mixed trend on Monday, with long-term rates declining and 30-year treasury futures rising, while 10-year and 5-year treasury futures experienced varying degrees of decline [1] - By the end of the trading session, the TL main contract rose by 0.18%, while the T main contract fell by 0.03%, and the TF main contract decreased by 0.02%, with the TS main contract remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest in treasury futures significantly decreased, with a reduction of 7,325 contracts, bringing the total open interest down to 740,736 contracts [1] Group 2 - The changes in the top 20 positions for each treasury futures variety varied from the previous trading day, indicating differing market sentiments [3] - Specifically, the TL long positions decreased by 1,950 contracts, while the T long positions increased by 2,187 contracts, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] - The overall view suggests that the treasury futures market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation trend, driven by ongoing expectations of monetary easing [4]

具体看，一是投放更精准、直达非银的流动性机制以及更窄更有效的利率走廊本身就是央行货币政策体系改革的一部分，并 且之前央行已经进行过预期引导。二是即便消息证实，大概率使DR001更加稳定以及在流动性紧张的窗口期银行与非银的利 差中枢收窄，并不意味着向市场提供流动性。 1月28日，有消息称央行正在探索并可能推出新的货币政策工具，债市情绪偏乐观推动价格上行。但笔者分析认为，新工具的 影响整体偏中性，权益、商品等大类资产在宏观层面的预期共振反而可能成为期债价格上行的推动力。 图为最近一周长债市场走势 国内方面，最新公布的PMI数据整体低于市场预期，结合2025年12月供需出现"劈叉"的情况看，随着市场关注点回归基本面， 宏观预期可能再度为债市提供支撑。从历史经验看，受冬季开工率回落以及工人返乡过节等因素影响，春节前1个月的制造业 PMI数据往往较前值有所回落。通过对历史数据的分析，笔者认为，本次制造业分项数据的回落符合季节性，但非制造业数 据的表现较弱，与此前发布的宏观数据可以相互印证。 而且，随着货币政策工具的精细化，数量型投放工具在政策信号方面的作用逐渐削弱。以国债买卖为例，1月中旬央行在国新 办新闻发布会上提到 ...

Group 1 - The main contract price of casting aluminum alloy futures reached a high of 24,410 yuan/ton last Friday but has since experienced a significant decline due to panic in the precious metals market and expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses commodity prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's waste aluminum market is expected to show an increase in volume and price stability, with domestic recycling systems growing and imports remaining strong to supplement raw material supply. The total waste aluminum recycling volume is projected to reach 8.5927 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The waste aluminum import volume for 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, with December imports showing a significant increase of 19.36% month-on-month and 22.82% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging high-quality recycled material imports and strong domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of January 29, the waste aluminum market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, with prices rising significantly but actual transactions remaining weak due to supply and demand weaknesses. Supply has tightened due to tax policy adjustments and holiday closures, while demand is suppressed by environmental production limits and rapid price increases [3] Group 4 - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market is entering a seasonal off-peak period, with significant internal structural differentiation. In December 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 640,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [5] - The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry has continued to decline, reaching 58.9% as of January 29, with expectations of further decreases before the Spring Festival. Social inventory has been decreasing, while factory inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand [5] Group 5 - The outlook for casting aluminum alloy futures prices is expected to be characterized by weak fluctuations, constrained by strong cost support and weak fundamental demand. The solid cost support comes from tight supply of core raw materials and high aluminum prices, while weak demand limits upward price movement [6]

当下，贵金属、有色、化工等大宗商品市场轮番上演价格波动大戏。本专题分别聚焦珠宝加工、电线电 缆制造、化工行业，通过鲜活的企业案例，拆解不同场景下的避险路径——从金价剧烈震荡中的实值期 权应用，到铜价高位时的阶梯式期权套保，再到化工"期现共振"下的"锁原料、锁成品"策略与精细化风 控，市场涨跌无常，唯有理性应对、善用期货期权等金融工具，建立科学的风险管理体系，才能让企业 在不确定性中筑牢安全防线。希望这些实践经验，能为身处市场浪潮中的实体企业提供借鉴，助力企业 行稳致远。 ...

消息面上，新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社2日报道，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。此外，伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社2日报道，一名知情人士确认，伊朗与美 国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟通，"将观察事态如 何发展"。 俄乌局势方面，当地时间2月2日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认， 将于当地时间 2 月 4 日至 5 日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。 截至夜盘收盘，沪银期货主力合约 "20CM" 跌停。伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格大跌。国际油价大跌。 早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 aq2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | -19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 205 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major contracts hitting their daily limits and other varieties also declining [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and alloy have seen substantial declines, with copper futures down 9.01% and aluminum futures down 9.01% [2]. - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but has since decreased, although it remains elevated compared to previous days [2]. Price Trends and Influences - The night trading session continued the downward trend, with international copper futures down 1.11% and domestic copper futures down 1.01% [3]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which has negatively impacted non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, putting upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand structures compared to previous years [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent rapid increases in copper prices have led to a cooling of bullish sentiment, with the market potentially shifting towards fundamental trading [5]. - Seasonal demand suppression and inventory accumulation are expected to pressure prices leading up to the Chinese New Year, with a potential rebound in March if downstream recovery exceeds expectations [5][6].