临近春节假期，玻璃行业进入季节性淡季，下游企业陆续放假停工，终端需求持续走弱。在这样的背景 下，玻璃期货昨日却强势上涨3.36%，最高触及1120元/吨，成交量突破200万手。 出口表现则较为亮眼。周小燕提到，受出口退税政策影响，今年1月玻璃出口订单表现较好。 展望后市，两位分析师均表示，春节假期前后，市场交易逻辑将切换。 周小燕认为，春节假期前需关注中下游囤货意愿变化，若冬储需求超预期释放，可能进一步支撑玻璃价 格上涨。春节假期后则需重点关注下游需求复苏情况，尤其是房地产行业的表现。若房地产行业需求无 明显起色，玻璃期货价格上行空间将受到限制。 寿佳露表示，春节假期前需要关注供应变化：沙河地区有4条煤制气产线待改造，同时也有不少待点火 的新产线，预计未来日熔量将上升；湖北地区春节假期前有冷修预期，且随着交割品减少，其现货价格 已高于沙河地区。 "春节假期后则需重点关注需求和库存情况，中游高库存会持续压制玻璃价格，上涨行情或难以持续。 不过，玻璃行业整体生产成本大概率抬升，目前天然气产线持续亏损，石油焦、煤制气产线仅小幅盈利 或处于盈亏平衡线附近，这意味着玻璃价格大幅下跌的可能性较小。"寿佳露说。 南华期货（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "investment copper bars" reflects a lack of financial literacy and structural shortcomings in financial education, highlighting the cognitive dissonance and investment anxiety among ordinary investors in a complex market environment [1][12]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The surge in "investment copper bars" is a response to the rising prices of gold and silver, driven by a strong desire for wealth accumulation among investors [12][14]. - The pricing of "investment copper bars" is significantly detached from the actual market value, with premiums exceeding 80% compared to copper futures prices, indicating a lack of transparency and fair pricing mechanisms [17][18]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - "Investment copper bars" lack a unified pricing mechanism and reliable exit strategies, leading to potential losses of 40% to 70% for investors upon purchase [13][15]. - The product is characterized by high volatility and low liquidity, making it a risky investment option that is not suitable for most investors [16][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in precious metals prices, including a significant drop in gold and silver, serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in speculative investments like "investment copper bars" [16][17]. - The market for "investment copper bars" is described as a gray area with weak regulation, highlighting the need for investors to be cautious and informed [14][15]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Successful investing requires a deep understanding of market demands and cycles, as demonstrated by individuals who have achieved consistent returns through disciplined investment strategies [5][6]. - The essence of investment lies in recognizing genuine demand and maintaining a steady approach, rather than succumbing to market fads and speculative bubbles [5][6].

贵金属价格在2025年末的大幅上涨趋势延续至2026年初，黄金价格已突破每盎司4500美元，白银价格突 破每盎司80美元，铂金更是达到2007年以来的首次纪录高位。钯金价格同样出现大幅反弹，但距离纪录 高位仍有相当距离。 图1：贵金属价格飞涨幅度几无先例 从价格回报来看，金属自2024年底至今的表现远超其他资产类别。截至1月6日，黄金上涨65%，钯金上 涨95%，铂金上涨150%，白银涨幅高达170%。其中黄金表现相对偏弱，可能与其涨幅在2000年至2024年 底间就已遥遥领先于其他金属有关。在2020年代的前五年里，黄金上涨73%，白银上涨63%，而铂金和 钯金则分别下跌8%和52%。在一定程度上，白银、铂金和钯金近期的强势表现，或反映了其在长期落后 于黄金之后的奋起直追。 那么，投资者应如何看待这些贵金属之间的相对价值？整个贵金属板块的前景又将如何？ 贵金属相对价值分析：白银与黄金 如今，要再坚持"白银相对黄金价格偏低"的观点，恐怕难有说服力。金银比（即一盎司黄金可兑换的白 银盎司数）已降至2013年以来的最低水平。 图2：最近几个月白银相对黄金显著走强 白银的部分涨幅，或反映了其相较于黄金的高β属性。白 ...

2026年，化工产业供需结构与竞争格局持续优化，推动板块估值修复。市场资金开始青睐处于低位的化工权益类资 产，乐观情绪传导至商品市场，带动化工品期货品种集体走强。 近期，伴随中东地缘政治风险降温，油价回落，主力多头随之减仓，PTA期价如期展开调整。不过，其中长期重心上 移的趋势并未改变。 PX-MX价差走强，其绝对值曾刷新5年来高位。高利润持续刺激工厂外采MX生产PX，支撑海内外短流程装置维持高 负荷。截至1月30日，国内PX负荷处于历年同期高位89.2%，且一季度检修计划力度弱于往年，叠加海外工厂有提负 计划，整体供应预计保持充裕。需关注PTA检修计划是否推迟，这将成为影响PX需求的关键变量。整体来看，一季度 PX供需格局预计转向宽松。 聚酯环节，据相关统计，1—2月期间聚酯工厂安排减停的装置涉及产能约占全国总产能的17.4%。近期聚酯行业开工 将加速下滑，整体检修力度超过去年同期。当前聚酯工厂权益库存不高，但核心压力在于下游放假时间延长。为此， 聚酯企业或计划在春节期间适度加大减产力度，以缓解节后可能累积的库存压力。 图为亚洲短流程PX装置利润（PX-MX） 供应端，截至1月30日，PTA行业负荷维持在历 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market risk appetite was negatively impacted by rising geopolitical tensions, the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chair nomination, and the dense disclosure of financial reports from China and the US, leading to significant adjustments in precious metals and equity markets [1] - On February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded, with IC and IM both rising over 2%, while IF and IH saw intraday increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In January, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% from 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4% from 50.2%, both dropping below the expansion threshold, attributed to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - The decline in PMI for labor-intensive industries indicates a weakening production side, with significant drops in consumer goods and high-energy industries' PMIs, down 2.1 and 1 percentage points to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively [1] - The new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, with construction activity notably affected by seasonal factors [1] Group 3: Policy Measures - The government has been actively implementing policies to address insufficient domestic demand, including structural interest rate cuts and targeted financial tools to lower financing costs for key sectors [2] - A comprehensive consumer promotion policy system has been established, focusing on "two new" policies, with an initial fund of 62.5 billion yuan already in place to stimulate the market through subsidies and interest discounts [2] - The removal of restrictions on service industry access is expected to optimize the consumption supply structure, contributing to economic stability [2] Group 4: International Economic Context - In December, the US CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, indicating persistent inflation, while non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 180,000 [3] - The US unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, with the economy showing support from a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3, the fastest since 2021 [3] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining rates at 5.25% to 5.5%, with market expectations for the first rate cut pushed to June [3]

2月3日，上期所黄金期货主力合约收涨0.63%，至1093.78元/克。 继上周五和本周一大幅下跌后，周二金价跌势缓和。贵金属价格上周五夜盘巨震，最主要的影响因素在于新 任美联储主席提名公布。美国总统特朗普1月30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下一任 美联储主席。市场对美联储主席人选的预期此前长时间集中在凯文·沃什和白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈 塞特两人。1月16日特朗普明确表示想让凯文·哈塞特"留在白宫"，沃什最终获得提名并不意外，但预期落地 仍对市场情绪产生巨大冲击。沃什主张大幅削减央行资产负债表的"鹰派"立场可能与未来潜在的降息存在矛 盾，引发海外市场对未来货币政策走向的担忧。持仓拥挤、获利盘离场导致的技术性回调，与上述担忧叠 加，最终演变为对贵金属资产的恐慌性抛售。 随着贵金属价格波动加剧，国内外交易所相继收紧了风控措施。上海期货交易所于1月30日公告，自2月3日 （星期二）收盘结算时起，白银期货AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、 AG2612、AG2701合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为1 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is gaining market attention due to the logic of "cyclical bottoming and expectation reversal," alongside rising raw material costs driven by North American cold waves and geopolitical conflicts, leading to an increase in polyolefin futures prices [2] Group 2 - Recent trends show a significant divergence in the price movements of upstream propylene and ethylene monomers, with propylene prices remaining strong while ethylene prices are declining despite rising prices of upstream and downstream products [3] - The current operating rate for polyethylene (PE) is 85.35%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points from the previous week, as facilities like Shanghai Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restart operations [3] - Ethylene prices are weakening due to increased spot supply from new domestic capacities and weak downstream demand, while the profitability of PE in the ethylene downstream chain is recovering significantly [3] - The current operating rate for polypropylene (PP) is 74.78%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, as several facilities are temporarily shut down, impacting PP capacity utilization [3] Group 3 - Upstream inventory of polyolefins is decreasing rapidly, with total PP inventory dropping to 648,300 tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons week-on-week, and total PE inventory falling to 802,600 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons week-on-week [4] - The pace of PE inventory reduction has slowed, primarily due to the coal chemical sector shifting from inventory reduction to accumulation, alleviating previous low inventory pressures [4] - Overall, upstream inventory pressure for polyolefins is low, but there is relatively high inventory pressure in the intermediate circulation segment, especially for standard products [4] Group 4 - The downstream demand for polyolefins is entering a traditional off-season, with limited stocking willingness from terminal factories as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to weak speculative stocking sentiment [5] - The average operating rate for PP downstream industries has decreased to 52.08%, a decline of 0.79 percentage points, with only BOPP and CPP showing slight increases [5] - The average operating rate for PE downstream is 37.76%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points, with most sectors experiencing a decline, particularly in the packaging film industry [5] Group 5 - The current market structure for polyolefins shows "low upstream inventory and high intermediate inventory," with significant divergence in supply trends between PP and PE [6] - PP is constrained by high propylene and propane prices, limiting the release of marginal capacities, while PE is seeing accelerated recovery in operating rates due to acceptable profitability in the supply chain [6] - Although supply is gradually increasing, it will exert pressure on the mid-term trend of polyolefins, but strong cost support is expected to maintain a bullish price trend in the short term [6]

近期，期债震荡运行，整体波动相对有限。截至2月3日收盘，TL主力合约周内跌0.09%，T主力合约周 内跌0.02%，TF主力合约周内涨0.02%，TS主力合约周内涨0.03%。 综合来看，1月官方PMI数据不及预期，银行间市场资金面延续偏松态势以及近期部分风险资产价格波 动加大，均对债市较为友好。不过，市场偏乐观的宏观叙事尚未发生显著变化，风险资产快速去杠杆也 不意味着其走势反转；2 月资金面潜在的季节性波动叠加春节后重要会议的临近，债市情绪将再度谨 慎。 考虑到基本面现状与央行对流动性的呵护态度，债市中短端大幅下行的可能性较小，且在政策利率调降 预期显著升温前，上行幅度也受限。此外，国内物价水平改善以及政府债券供给规模庞大，债市超长端 收益率下行最为顺畅的阶段已经过去。短期内，单边观望为主，若后续债市因资金面阶段性收敛而出现 明显调整，则逢低试多TF和T合约。 （文章来源：期货日报） 1月官方制造业PMI不及预期，价格指标虽继续修复，但"产强需弱"格局改善力度有限，企业库存管理 偏谨慎，并可能继续制约价格"自上而下"的传导效率。此外，1月非制造业景气度同样有所回落，非制 造业PMI录得49.4%，创下202 ...

Group 1 - The domestic funding market interest rates have shown a comprehensive downward trend recently, with short-term rates slightly decreasing as of early February after the demand release at the end of January [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) injection, leading to ample market liquidity and suppressing the trend of medium to long-term interest rates [1] - The Shibor rates have decreased across various tenors, with the Overnight (O/N) rate at 1.3170%, down by 5.4 basis points, and the 1-Year (1Y) rate at 1.6215%, down by 1.55 basis points compared to January 27 [2] Group 2 - To meet the funding demand at the end of January, the PBOC increased the reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a maturity of 1.7615 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos this week [3] - The PBOC is expected to withdraw significant liquidity through reverse repos, and the domestic funding market rates are anticipated to exhibit a "short-term rise and long-term decline" pattern, especially as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - The recent significant decline in commodity prices has led to a decrease in market risk appetite and a subsequent drop in investment demand, contributing to the weakening of medium to long-term interest rates [3]

2026年元旦以来，铁矿石期货价格呈现冲高回落态势，当前铁矿石市场转向供增需减的弱平衡格局。随 着春节临近，终端需求步入季节性淡季，钢厂节前补库活动已近尾声，日均铁水产量出现阶段性见顶回 落迹象。反观供应端，海外发运保持持续增长态势，港口库存累积至高位。在供应宽松而需求季节性转 弱的格局下，铁矿石价格缺乏上行驱动，预计短线期价将以震荡偏弱走势为主。 西芒杜项目落地影响深远 全球铁矿石生产布局正经历结构性重塑，供应整体呈现"主流产地稳定、新兴项目发力"的格局。一直以 来，由于中国铁矿石品位偏低、生产成本高，且国内资源禀赋与庞大的钢铁产能不匹配，我国供给端高 度依赖进口。其中主要的海外供应源自澳大利亚与巴西，与此同时，以西芒杜项目为代表的新兴供应源 也逐渐成为重要的非主流增量来源。 相关数据显示，1月26日至2月1日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比增加116.2万吨，至3094.6万吨。年初以 来，全球发运累计值同比大幅增加1509.4万吨，这一增量主要来自澳洲及非主流国家。近期发运量仍处 于近3年同期高位，且短期仍有上升预期。与之对应的是，截至1月30日，国内矿山日均铁矿石产量为 46.87万吨，环比微降0.17%，而 ...