近期，纯碱依旧处于震荡下跌趋势，主力2509合约最低跌至1150元／吨附近，暂时未出现止跌企稳迹 象。5—6月，博源银根、河南金山、山东海化等企业启动检修。尽管检修企业较多，但供应压力未得到 根本缓解。另外，今年以来需求端持续疲软，浮法玻璃日熔量较去年高位下降近2万吨，光伏玻璃日熔 量同比减少13%，纯碱需求同比缩减明显。在供过于求格局下，纯碱价格持续下跌，利润受到挤压，上 游企业套保意愿强烈，进一步压制期价反弹空间。 今年纯碱行业集中检修期提前，往年7—8月开启夏季集中检修，但今年5—6月行业检修降负明显。我们 认为，纯碱行业提前启动集中检修的原因有两方面：一方面，高库存压力倒逼企业主动收缩供应。当前 纯碱厂家库存加交割库库存突破200万吨，创历史新高，企业面临巨大的去库压力，需要通过提前检修 来减少供应，从而缓解库存压力。另一方面，需求端持续走弱加剧行业悲观预期，浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃 日熔量均明显下降，纯碱需求收缩，企业为避免库存进一步累积，选择在需求淡季提前检修。 未来，产能进一步扩张的预期迫使企业抢占市场先机。连云港碱业已于今年5月投产，远兴2期280万吨 产能在年底有投产预期。在需求收缩的情况下，企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the second quarter, the silicon iron market experienced weak price performance primarily due to a downward shift in cost dynamics, with prices dropping from 6000 CNY/ton to approximately 5300 CNY/ton as electricity costs decreased and demand remained weak [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - From June to July, the silicon iron supply side showed a mix of production resumption and maintenance, while downstream demand was weak due to the off-season, leading to a slight weakening of the supply-demand balance [1][4]. - The demand from downstream steel mills remains resilient in the short term, but non-steel demand has shown signs of fatigue, particularly with magnesium production facing profit declines, resulting in maintenance at magnesium plants in Shaanxi and Xinjiang [4]. Cost Dynamics - The mid-term electricity prices are expected to show a stable but slight downward trend, with risks of narrow declines in the cost side [2][3]. - The price of Shanxi lump coal has decreased from 655 CNY/ton to 600 CNY/ton, contributing to the downward shift in silicon iron costs [3]. - The electricity price adjustment in the Ningxia region, which saw a reduction of 0.02 to 0.06 CNY/kWh, significantly impacted silicon iron costs, with expectations of a potential cost reduction of 80 CNY/ton based on projected electricity price declines [3]. Market Outlook - The overall supply pressure may slightly increase due to the resumption of production in the Ningxia region, while some factories in other regions may undergo short-term maintenance due to profit pressures [4]. - The silicon iron market is expected to face a weakening supply-demand balance, with inventory depletion rates likely slowing down [4]. - Despite potential short-term rebounds in silicon iron prices, the combination of weakening supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggests a bearish outlook for the market [4].

供给端，海外矿山挺价，但下游高价接货意愿较弱，矿价仍然呈现偏弱运行态势，外采端成本重心下 降。前期减停产的锂盐厂基本在增复产，碳酸锂产量有创新高的预期，供给端延续库存从矿端转移至盐 端，锂盐产量持续增加。进口方面，5月智利发运环比大幅减少，但受到船期影响，6月实际进口量或不 会出现明显走弱趋势，进口仍保持稳定状态，总供给将持续增加。 （文章来源：期货日报） 近几周，碳酸锂价格整体在6万元／吨附近震荡，尽管目前绝对价格偏低，但宏观面支撑边际减弱，在 供给未出现减量的情况下，碳酸锂仍难以出现反转上涨趋势。最近，仓单注销较多，仓单量持续走低， 引发市场关注，但距离2509合约交割仍有时间，持续跟踪仓单变化情况。目前锂盐端复产增加，过剩量 级有扩大预期，短期价格将承压下行。期货市场方面，上周碳酸锂期货2509合约开盘于60000元／吨， 收盘于58900元／吨，最低价为58860元／吨，最高价为60600元／吨，整体价格重心下移。成交方面， 碳酸锂期货2509合约周度成交量107.85万手，环比大幅增加40.02万手，持仓量为35.43万手，环比增加 8.74万手。 2025年资源端复产与需求端预期下调使得锂矿过剩量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in urea futures prices have shown a significant rebound followed by a rapid decline, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton, down 2% and nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous high of 1800 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Urea futures prices have experienced a sharp drop after a significant rebound, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic urea spot prices have also decreased, with some regions seeing price reductions of 10 to 50 yuan/ton, and mainstream small particle prices ranging from 1680 to 1800 yuan/ton [1] - Market sentiment is cautious, with high-level transactions facing resistance and traders eager to liquidate, leading to noticeable price declines [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent price volatility to two main factors: improved export conditions due to disruptions in Iranian production and lower-than-expected Indian urea tender volumes, which have driven prices up [3] - The expectation of relaxed domestic export policies has also contributed to price increases, but subsequent supply chain improvements have not materialized, leading to downward pressure on prices [3] - Urea production remains high, with potential increases in daily output and nearly 200 million tons of new production capacity expected to be released from July to October [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that urea prices may stabilize at lower levels due to ongoing production profitability and reduced agricultural demand in the second half of the year [5] - The key variable affecting future prices will be the timing and volume of any further relaxation of export policies [5] - Analysts believe that urea prices are currently constrained by supply-demand dynamics and export policy impacts, with limited upward potential but some support from potential policy changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The training session aims to enhance the ability of enterprises in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps to utilize the futures market for managing operational risks and to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Training and Collaboration - The training was organized by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, focusing on risk management through futures [1]. - Participants included regulatory officials, representatives from state-owned enterprises, listed companies, and financial experts, discussing the role of financial derivatives in industry transformation and supply chain stability [1][2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has established multiple delivery warehouses for cotton and jujube in Xinjiang, reinforcing the region's position as a trade center and pricing benchmark [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Enterprises face price volatility and market risks due to global economic changes, which create uncertainties in procurement, production, and sales [1]. - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps emphasizes the need for enterprises to enhance their understanding of the futures market and develop a skilled workforce that comprehends both futures and spot markets [2][3]. - The training highlighted the importance of using futures and derivatives for risk management, with a focus on cotton and jujube, which are key products for the region [2][4]. Group 3: Expert Insights and Practical Applications - Industry experts provided insights on macroeconomic trends, cost fluctuations, and supply chain challenges, advising on how to use futures tools for risk hedging and strategic planning [3]. - The training included discussions on the core functions of the futures market, such as price discovery and resource allocation, and how these can support high-quality development for enterprises [3]. - Practical applications of futures and options in risk management were shared, including strategies for hedging and liquidity risk control, helping participants understand how to stabilize operations and secure profits [3][4].

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...

Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Israel conducted airstrikes on a large military facility in Iran located in Parchin, southeast of Tehran, with Iranian air defense systems activated in Tehran and Karaj on June 23 [1] - The U.S. military successfully targeted and destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, dropping 6 bunker buster bombs on the Fordow nuclear facility and launching 30 Tomahawk missiles at other sites [3] - Satellite images revealed at least 6 large craters at the Fordow facility, indicating the use of bunker bombs, and the operation was described as the largest B-2 bomber strike in U.S. history, involving 7 B-2 bombers and 75 precision-guided munitions [4] Group 2: Iranian Government's Stance - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the U.S. must pay for its aggressive actions, emphasizing that the U.S. initiated the attacks and violated previous commitments regarding dialogue [6] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif asserted that the U.S. should be held accountable for the consequences of the attacks, and Iran launched multiple missile strikes against Israel using advanced "Khaybar" medium-range ballistic missiles [7] - Senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Shamkhani, indicated that despite the U.S. airstrikes, Iran's uranium enrichment continues, suggesting that the conflict is far from over [7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel-derived household appliances, effective June 23, impacting products like dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [9] - The new tariff applies to eight categories of household appliances, with specific exemptions for products using domestically sourced steel, and is part of the Trump administration's broader strategy to increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum [10] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU remain contentious, with significant disparities in positions, leading to potential retaliatory measures from the EU if no agreement is reached [10]

Core Insights - The third Rural Characteristic Advantage Industry Development Conference and Consumption Assistance Product Exhibition was held in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of industry development for poverty alleviation and rural revitalization [1][2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs highlighted the need for long-term support and cultivation of industries in poverty-stricken areas to enhance sustainable development [1][2] - The conference aims to create a platform for communication and showcase rural characteristic industries, encouraging participation from entrepreneurs and society to achieve mutual benefits [2][3] Industry Development - The majority of assistance industries are still in the early growth stage, facing various shortcomings that need to be addressed through concentrated resources and integrated elements [2] - Focus on leading industries and the development of the entire industrial chain is essential, along with market orientation to cultivate core competitiveness [2] - Emphasis on brand cultivation and product quality improvement is crucial for driving farmers' income and wealth [2] Initiatives and Programs - The Rural Development Volunteer Service Promotion Association has initiated a program to support the development of nine key industries, including oil tea, walnuts, and wine from the northwest region [3] - The association aims to promote the transformation and upgrading of characteristic advantage industries, focusing on deep processing and integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [3] - The conference includes participation from 64 industry associations and institutions, featuring forums on financial, technological, and consumption assistance [3]

Group 1 - Silver futures and spot prices have significantly corrected after reaching new highs, with a decline of 4.7% in the last two trading days for Shanghai silver and a substantial drop in London silver spot prices [1] - The main reasons for the recent sharp correction in silver prices include a continuous decline in downstream demand, a rapid increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth [1][2] - The financial attributes and industrial attributes dominate the pricing of silver, with current market conditions deviating significantly from historical patterns due to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium and a cooling of speculative trading [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% has exerted downward pressure on precious metals, including silver, with an increase in the number of officials supporting no rate cuts this year [2] - Global silver mine production is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, reaching 83,500 million ounces (approximately 25,972 tons), primarily driven by growth in Mexico, Chile, and Russia [2] - The silver market remains tight, but there are no signs of significant inventory depletion, with COMEX silver futures inventory increasing by 15,000 million ounces since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - The Chinese photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has supported silver's industrial demand, but the marginal demand is currently slowing down, and global economic recession risks are suppressing cyclical demand for silver [4] - The gold price has stronger upward momentum in the current macro environment, making it difficult for silver prices to narrow the gap with gold prices, leading to an upward trend in the gold-silver ratio [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that developing new quality productivity is an intrinsic requirement and important focus for promoting high-quality development, characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality [1] - New quality productivity represents a leap in productivity that will impact the entire human social process, necessitating a focus on integrating innovation resources to enhance technological breakthroughs and innovative configurations of production factors [1] - The article highlights the need for a strong engine of new quality productivity driven by technological self-reliance and the creation of new fields and advantages for high-quality development [1] Group 2 - The focus on strategic industries is crucial for seizing the high ground of new quality productivity, with an emphasis on integrating technological innovation with specific industries and enhancing traditional industries while fostering emerging ones [2] - The article calls for a comprehensive implementation of new development concepts to scientifically layout technological and industrial innovations, particularly in strategic industries like new energy, advanced manufacturing, and electronic information [2] Group 3 - Talent is identified as the primary core competitiveness for enterprises and the nation, with a strong emphasis on nurturing high-level, strategic scientists and innovative teams to drive technological innovation and new quality productivity [3] - The establishment of a robust talent system is essential for high-quality development, focusing on attracting and cultivating talent while providing world-class innovation platforms [3]