Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, indicating a potential short-term adjustment after a rapid increase in trading volume and market performance [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On September 4, the A-share market showed weak performance, with major indices declining; the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 1.25% and 2.12% respectively, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 dropped by 4.25% and 6.08% [2]. - The trading volume on September 4 was 2.58 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with nearly 3,000 listed companies experiencing declines [2]. Trading Signals - A turnover rate exceeding 5% is highlighted as a significant trading signal, indicating increased investor risk appetite and potential short-term volatility [3]. - Historical data suggests that when the turnover rate rises above 5%, the market often experiences subsequent adjustments, as seen in previous years [3]. Mid-term Trends - Despite short-term adjustments, the mid-term upward trend since September 2022 is expected to continue, with the market's overall valuation remaining reasonable and not overvalued [4]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is below 14 times, placing it in the 63rd percentile of the past 20 years, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to major global markets [4]. Earnings Growth - A-share earnings are projected to achieve positive growth this year, with a forecasted increase of 3.5% for 2025, driven by a favorable base effect and cost factors in the second half of the year [5]. - The recent policy emphasis on stabilizing the capital market is expected to bolster investor confidence, with ongoing attention to U.S. interest rate changes and domestic policy developments [5]. Investment Strategy - The focus is on the expansion and rotation of growth styles, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy, while dividend-paying stocks are expected to show structural opportunities [6]. - The market is anticipated to continue exhibiting characteristics of style rotation, with strong sectors alternating, which may persist throughout the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are expected to become the next generation of lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density, with significant investment opportunities arising from technological breakthroughs and industrial transformation [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Projections - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating due to policy support, market demand, and technological breakthroughs, with a projected global shipment of 808 GWh by 2030 [4][10]. - By 2030, the demand for semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 650 GWh, with specific demands from power, energy storage, EVTOL, and consumer electronics at 466 GWh, 90 GWh, 60 GWh, and 36 GWh respectively [10]. - Full solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve small-scale production by 2027 and commercial production by 2030, with a demand forecast of over 150 GWh [10]. Group 2: Material Innovations - The solid-state battery technology is converging towards the sulfide electrolyte route, which currently has high costs but significant cost reduction potential with scale [5][12]. - The long-term focus for anode materials is shifting towards lithium metal due to its high capacity and low electrode potential, with ongoing advancements in production methods [25][27]. - The cathode materials are expected to transition from high-nickel ternary materials to lithium-rich manganese-based materials, which offer high capacity and lower costs [23]. Group 3: Equipment and Manufacturing Processes - The value of equipment for solid-state batteries is significantly increasing due to the introduction of new processes and equipment in both the front and mid-stages of production [6][29]. - The front-end production requires dry electrode processes that are more compatible with sulfide electrolytes, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [30][32]. - The mid-stage production will replace winding with stacking processes, necessitating new equipment such as glue frame printing and isostatic pressing to ensure tight contact between solid electrolyte and electrodes [31][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Various companies are advancing their production capabilities for solid-state battery components, including sulfide and halide electrolytes, with significant investments in R&D and production lines [22][20]. - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are focusing on lithium metal anodes, while others are developing advanced manufacturing techniques for solid-state batteries [27][26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective production methods, with several firms already implementing dry processing technologies [36][41].

点击小程序查看报告原文 近年来，地缘经济学逐渐从一个学术概念演变为全球经济和政策讨论的热门话题。国际经济秩序从全球化时代以合作为基调转向竞争，与传统的地缘政治 博弈不同，新一轮地缘竞争更多依赖经济手段实现经济和非经济目标。中金研究院与中金公司研究部联合撰写这篇主题报告，围绕地缘经济竞争的内涵、 形式、载体和影响展开分析，并探讨可能的应对政策。本文就地缘经济竞争在宏观层面的体现和含义提出一些思考。 一、从地缘视角看宏观经济政策理念的转变 传统上学术界和政策界强调经济政策和举措聚焦于实现两大经济目标，效率与公平。地缘竞争使得非经济目标也被纳入考量，包括国家安全和地缘影响 力。就地缘经济对宏观政策理念和框架的影响而言，有三个方面值得探讨。 第一、地缘竞争突显规模经济在国际贸易和全球产业链的重要性。传统的贸易理论强调基于资源禀赋差异形成的比较优势，比如发展中国家专注于劳动密 集型产业，发达国家聚焦资本、技术密集型领域。在现实中，规模经济效应驱动产业内分工，能更好解释美国、欧洲和日本等发达国家之间的贸易，以及 中国作为贸易大国的崛起。1980年代初，经济学家克鲁格曼提出以规模经济和不完全竞争为基础的新贸易理论，其政策含 ...

Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market experienced fluctuations in August, with a total market capitalization of 218.8 billion yuan and a decline in the China Securities REITs Total Return Index by 2.61% [2][3][7]. Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index showed a downward trend in early August, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at 1073.33 [3]. - The average daily turnover in August was 696 million yuan, reflecting a 15% increase month-on-month, with an average turnover rate of 0.70% [3][15]. Sector Analysis - The data center sector saw a significant increase of 36.55%, while the rental housing sector led the decline with a drop of 5.45% due to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The valuation pressure across various sectors has eased, with the spreads between different sectors and the 10-year government bond yields showing mixed trends [4]. Investment Opportunities - There are potential investment opportunities in high-quality projects that have seen price corrections, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals such as rental housing and municipal environmental protection [5]. - The market is advised to focus on projects with stable tenant structures and those that have shown marginal stability in fundamentals [5]. Risk Appetite and Market Sentiment - The market's risk appetite appears to be contracting, as indicated by the fluctuations in major asset classes and the performance of the C-REITs index [4]. - The performance of the C-REITs market is closely linked to the broader capital market sentiment, which may influence future stability and recovery [4].

Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.4% and up from 2.3% in Q2 2024, although it slowed from 3.2% in Q1 2025 [2][8] - The National Economic and Social Development Council adjusted the full-year growth forecast to 1.8-2.3%, up from the previous range of 1.3-2.3%, maintaining cautious optimism amid global uncertainties [2][8] - Key growth drivers include strong export performance, with Q2 exports up 12.2% year-on-year, and a rebound in private investment, which grew by 4.1% [8][10] Policy Response - Thailand faces multiple pressures including political friction, border conflicts, trade risks, and natural disasters, which pose challenges to growth [3][21] - The Constitutional Court's ruling on former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's actions may delay key initiatives like the digital wallet plan [21][22] - Strong foreign direct investment (FDI) activity, with a record 1,063 approved projects worth $18.7 billion in H1 2025, signals positive investment sentiment [22][23] Trade Dynamics - Thailand's exports grew by 14.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, continuing a five-quarter growth streak, driven by strong demand for electronics [4][30] - The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods, which may pressure export-oriented businesses in the second half of 2025 [4][30] - Thailand is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships, achieving key milestones such as gaining BRICS partner status and enhancing ties with the European Free Trade Association [4][31][32] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector showed signs of weakness, with foreign visitor numbers down 12.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to safety concerns and regional competition [5][38] - The Thai government announced a stimulus package of 10 billion baht (approximately $300 million) to promote tourism and improve attractions [5][39] - Long-haul tourists are expected to increase, potentially driving tourism revenue to $46.4 billion in 2025, up from $39.7 billion in 2024 [5][39] Capital Markets - The SET index rose by 3% in the past month, reflecting improved market sentiment, although it remains down 6.9% year-to-date [6][49] - The forward P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.0x and 13.1x, respectively, indicating a valuation below historical averages [6][49] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend financial stocks, electronic and electric vehicle manufacturing, fintech innovation, and energy transition [6][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging market for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology, highlighting its advantages over traditional electronic switches and the potential for significant market growth, particularly in data centers and AI clusters [2][4][30]. Summary by Sections OCS Technology Overview - OCS enables direct switching of optical signals between fiber ports without the need for optical-electrical-optical conversion, resulting in lower latency, reduced power consumption, and improved compatibility [2][10]. - The technology faces limitations such as longer switching times and lower channel flexibility, making it less suitable for high-concurrency communication loads [10][11]. Industry Adoption and Market Potential - Google has been a pioneer in adopting OCS technology, integrating it into its Jupiter data center network and AI clusters, which has led to significant improvements in network efficiency and cost reduction [3][19][22]. - Cignal AI projects that the OCS market could exceed $1.6 billion by 2029, with Coherent identifying a $2 billion potential market opportunity for OCS switches [4][30]. Key Players and Technological Developments - Major companies involved in OCS technology include Google, Lumentum, and Coherent, with various technological approaches such as MEMS, digital liquid crystal, and piezoelectric systems being explored [11][13][15]. - The OCS industry is moving towards open standards and collaboration, as evidenced by the establishment of the OCS sub-project under the Open Compute Project (OCP) [29]. Initial Revenue and Future Growth - Companies like Lumentum and Coherent have reported initial revenues from OCS, with expectations for continued growth as demand increases from large-scale cloud providers [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the OCS industry's trends and the potential for significant contributions to the supply chain as OCS technology becomes more widely adopted in data centers [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving economic landscape in the U.S., highlighting a potential shift towards a "fiscal dominance, monetary coordination" policy model, driven by rising inflation and increasing fiscal deficits, despite the market's expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][20][24]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Inflation - The U.S. economy is experiencing a bumpy recovery, with consumer and business confidence gradually improving as policy uncertainties decrease [5][9]. - Inflation is expected to trend upwards towards the end of the year, primarily due to a "wage-inflation" spiral and tariff impacts, which may challenge traditional monetary policy approaches [16][18]. - The labor market is showing signs of recovery, with job vacancies increasing and wage growth potentially on the rise, indicating a solid foundation for consumer spending [9][12][16]. Group 2: Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Coordination - The article outlines a new policy model characterized by fiscal dominance, where fiscal policy increasingly influences monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of persistent fiscal deficits [20][24]. - The federal deficit for the current fiscal year reached $1.63 trillion by July, with projections suggesting it could rise to $1.92 trillion for the full year, indicating a significant fiscal burden [20][21]. - The article suggests that the current administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is a strategic move to reduce financing costs for both the government and private sectors, especially ahead of upcoming elections [26][29]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The article anticipates a significant increase in U.S. Treasury bond issuance, with projections of $1 trillion in net issuance for Q3 and $590 billion for Q4, primarily in long-term bonds [33][34]. - The demand for bonds is expected to be driven mainly by households, money market funds, and foreign investors, although recent trends show a decrease in holdings by money market funds [37][41]. - The article warns that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates while inflation rises, it could lead to higher long-term interest rates, with projections suggesting the 10-year yield could reach approximately 4.8% by year-end [4][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a growth style in the market, highlighting the importance of focusing on sectors with improving economic conditions and potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology and financial sectors [2][4]. Market Overview - In August, the A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining only on five trading days. The average daily trading volume across all A-shares reached 2.3 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance stood at 2.2 trillion yuan, indicating a rising trading enthusiasm [3]. - The STAR Market has been the strongest performer since the market's uptrend began in late June, with the STAR 50 Index rising by 28% in August. Investor interest has notably increased in sectors related to AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing [3]. Economic Drivers - The upward trend observed since September 2022 continues, but caution is advised due to potential short-term volatility following rapid increases in trading volume. The global monetary order restructuring is identified as a core driver of the A-share market's rise, with the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling a potential adjustment in monetary policy [4]. - Domestic demand remains a concern, but sectors benefiting from economic transformation and industrial upgrades are seeing increased optimism. Recent forecasts indicate significant upward revisions in net profit expectations for industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, software and services, and semiconductors [4]. Sector Performance 1. **Energy and Basic Materials**: - Prices for coal and other materials have shown mixed performance, with coal prices experiencing a month-on-month increase while remaining lower year-on-year. The supply side is expected to stabilize due to regulatory measures [5][12]. 2. **Industrial Products**: - The demand for electrical equipment exports is growing, and the photovoltaic industry is seeing a rebound in polysilicon prices. New energy installations have significantly increased, with wind and solar power installations growing by 79% and 81% year-on-year, respectively [6]. 3. **Consumer Goods**: - Traditional consumer sectors are still struggling, with sales of major appliances showing mixed results. The average daily room rate and occupancy rates in the hotel sector have declined [7]. 4. **Technology**: - There is a strong demand for AI computing infrastructure, and the semiconductor sector remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 19.6% year-on-year [8]. 5. **Financials**: - The insurance and securities sectors are benefiting from a recovering capital market, with insurance premium income rising by 6.8% year-on-year [8]. 6. **Real Estate**: - The real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with sales and investment figures remaining weak. The sales price index for new and second-hand homes has shown a year-on-year decline [8]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests focusing on sectors with solid industrial logic, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals. It also highlights the importance of financial sectors due to improved market sentiment and the potential for recovery in the real estate market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, emphasizing the development of the national carbon market as a key policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [2][7]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Goals - The document sets specific targets for the national carbon market, aiming for basic coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a comprehensive trading system by 2030, including quota control, distribution, and international market integration [12][13]. - The goals reflect a coordinated approach with the dual control system for carbon emissions, transitioning from intensity control to total control by 2030 [16][17]. Group 2: Development of Trading Systems - The national carbon market consists of mandatory emission reduction trading and voluntary emission reduction trading, with key sectors like power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum already included [3][18]. - The voluntary carbon market is set to restart in January 2024, with methodologies being developed for various sectors, including power, oil and gas, and forestry [20]. Group 3: Financial Product Innovation - The document encourages financial institutions to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, such as carbon bonds, carbon futures, and carbon funds, to enhance support for greenhouse gas reduction [22][23]. - Local governments, such as Guangdong and Shanghai, are implementing policies to support carbon asset financing and expand the range of market participants [24]. Group 4: Carbon Emission Accounting and Verification - The article highlights the need for improved carbon emission accounting and reporting management, including the revision of guidelines for key industries and the establishment of a national carbon measurement center [25][26]. - The ecological environment department has released guidelines for greenhouse gas accounting and reporting for four key industries since the market's inception in 2021, with ongoing updates needed for other sectors [27].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growth potential of the African consumer market, particularly in essential goods, driven by a young population and increasing penetration rates in essential categories [3][18]. Group 1: Overall Economic and Demographic Insights - Africa's GDP is projected to reach $3 trillion in 2024, accounting for 3.10% of the global economy, with a population of approximately 1.515 billion, representing 18.56% of the global population [3][33]. - The region has a youthful demographic, with a median age of around 21 years and 38% of the population aged 0-14, which supports the growth of essential consumer goods [3][36]. - East and West Africa show significant growth potential due to better business environments and relatively stable exchange rates compared to other regions [3][27]. Group 2: Consumer Market Characteristics - The African consumer market is characterized as an early seller's market, with essential goods penetration and per capita consumption steadily increasing [4][5]. - Essential categories, such as packaged water and beverages, are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9% and 15.7% respectively from 2021 to 2024, while optional categories lag behind with growth rates below 6% [4][5]. - Traditional offline channels dominate the retail landscape, with e-commerce projected to account for only 2% of total retail sales by 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Regional Insights from Field Research - The field research covered major cities in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania, which together account for approximately 10% of Africa's total population and 8.2% of its GDP [8]. - The average annual spending per capita in these countries ranges from $1,000 to $2,000, with over 35% of expenditures allocated to essential goods [8][11]. - Consumer behavior is heavily influenced by traditional marketing channels, with limited penetration of modern retail formats [9][11]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Challenges - The African market presents opportunities for investment in essential goods due to the expanding population and increasing demand for these products [18][21]. - However, challenges include weak supply chain infrastructure, complex trade policies, and significant currency fluctuations, particularly in countries like Ghana where the currency has depreciated by 154% since 2022 [21][22]. - The operational complexity across different countries necessitates a high level of management capability and adaptability from companies looking to enter the market [23][24]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - International brands like Unilever and Nestlé have established a presence in Africa, while local brands often compete on price [4][20]. - Chinese companies are leveraging their supply chain and organizational management strengths to penetrate the market, focusing on localized innovation and cost-effective manufacturing [24][25].