(图片由豆包AI生成，提示词风险暴发） 一个令全球市场恐慌的日期，正在逼近。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示， 建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。 这一声明不仅打破了此前90天的"缓冲期"预期，也让原本艰难推进的美欧贸易谈判面临崩盘风险。 当天美股、欧股双双跳水，避险情绪重回上风，黄金大涨。 而 上一次类似情绪失控，是4月2日 ——当天，特朗普宣布所谓的"对等关税"，"血洗"全球股市，黄金迎来史诗级暴涨。 如今，随着特朗普再次出手，市场正在评估， 6月1日会不会是又一个4月2日。 欧美贸易是无与伦比的，必须以相互尊重为指导，而非威胁。我们随时准备捍卫我们的利益。 欧盟方面认为，欧盟和美国的关税之间仅相差约1个百分点，增值税大致相当于美国的销售税。 布鲁塞尔也不愿意给予美国其他国家无法进入的市场，因为这 将违反世界贸易组织的规则。 官员们还指出，虽然贸易政策由欧盟委员会负责，但美国面临的许多贸易壁垒都是国家层面的。 迄今为止， 大多数成员国都支持欧盟委员会"参与但耗时"的做法 ，认为特朗普最终会因其关税将对美国经济造成的损害而做出让步。他们表示，布鲁塞尔方 面有坚定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court is expected to make a ruling on a preliminary injunction that could potentially nullify the 10% tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2, which has been largely overlooked by the market as a potential positive risk [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Implications - The legal challenge centers around Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with plaintiffs arguing that the President does not have the power to bypass Congress for such measures [2][3]. - The plaintiffs, represented by the conservative Liberty Justice Center, assert that the IEEPA does not grant the President the authority to impose broad tariffs without specific events or international developments [3][4]. - The case has garnered support from notable Republican figures, emphasizing the constitutional issue of whether executive power can override congressional fiscal authority [3][5]. Group 2: Court's Role and Potential Outcomes - The relatively obscure U.S. Trade Court in Manhattan has jurisdiction over national tariff and trade disputes, and its decisions could set significant precedents for future presidential use of the IEEPA [6][7]. - The court's ruling, regardless of the outcome, will have implications for the constitutional distribution of powers and could either embolden or restrict future trade policies under the current administration [7]. - If the court grants the injunction, it would halt the implemented 10% tariffs and any pending reciprocal tariffs, potentially reshaping ongoing negotiations with the EU, Japan, and India [1][7]. Group 3: Business Reactions - Many large U.S. companies are currently taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the lawsuit, partly due to fears of political retaliation, while smaller businesses are more affected by cost pressures and are leading the challenge [8]. - The potential for more challenges to arise in the next two years is noted, indicating a growing discontent among businesses regarding the tariff policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's return to a 24-hour work schedule highlights his focus on operational improvements for Tesla and X, especially after recent outages [1][2] Group 1: Musk's Current State and Market Reaction - Musk's "angry" state may be beneficial for Tesla shareholders, as historically, it has led to remarkable execution and performance [2][3] - Recent pressures include a decline in Tesla's quarterly sales, ongoing margin pressures, and increased competition from companies like BYD [3][7] - Following Musk's announcement to reduce political involvement, Tesla's stock price increased by 43% since April 22, indicating investor confidence in his business focus [3] Group 2: Future Vision and Challenges - Musk is shifting focus from car sales to advancing robotics and autonomous driving technology, which he believes are key to Tesla's future [10][12] - He envisions Tesla's market value potentially exceeding $30 trillion if goals for autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots are achieved [12] - Despite ambitious plans, Tesla faces significant competition, with BYD surpassing Tesla in European sales for the first time [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank economist Peter Hooper proposes a seemingly "simple" solution to eliminate the US trade deficit: a 40% depreciation of the US dollar [1][6]. Group 1: Key Drivers of US Trade Deficit - The report identifies the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the dollar as the most persistent driver of the US trade deficit, influenced by fundamental shifts in fiscal and monetary policy as well as changes in overseas private and government savings [4]. - The US trade deficit with the rest of the world has reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by the largest tariff policies since the Great Depression introduced during Trump's administration [5]. Group 2: Proposed Solution of Dollar Depreciation - The key finding indicates that reversing the 40% real appreciation of the dollar over the past 15 years could potentially bring the trade deficit back to a zero balance or better [2][6]. - A depreciation of the dollar by 20-30% could reduce the trade deficit by approximately 3% of GDP, suggesting that a significant reversal of the dollar's appreciation since 2010 could restore balance [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Implications - A 40% depreciation of the dollar is expected to have catastrophic effects on the global economy, particularly impacting emerging markets and export-driven economies, potentially leading to a global recession [10]. - Although there are more effective and less painful alternatives to address the trade deficit, these options may currently be politically unfeasible. However, as the negative economic impacts of the current tariff-focused policies become more apparent, public pressure may drive a policy shift [10][11]. Group 4: Tariff Policy Effects - The report acknowledges that current tariffs can help reduce the trade deficit to some extent, but at a significant cost of increased prices and reduced output, with these negative effects expected to manifest in the coming months [11]. - While there is no painless solution to deficit reduction, dollar depreciation is suggested as a more effective and less painful path, which may gain traction as the adverse effects of tariff policies become clearer [11].

Core Viewpoint - The potential shift of iPhone production back to the U.S. could lead to a significant price increase, with estimates suggesting a rise of at least 25% to as much as 190% compared to current prices, severely impacting demand and inflation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Cost Implications - Analysts predict that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro, currently priced at $1199, could rise to approximately $1500 if produced in the U.S. due to labor cost increases [3]. - A more pessimistic estimate suggests that the price of a U.S.-manufactured iPhone could reach $3500, with Apple needing to invest $30 billion over three years to shift just 10% of its supply chain to the U.S. [4]. Group 2: Labor and Skills Challenges - The labor cost for manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. is significantly higher, with U.S. assembly and testing costs estimated at $200 compared to $40 in Asia [8]. - There is a notable shortage of skilled engineers in the U.S., which complicates the feasibility of large-scale production. Apple CEO Tim Cook highlighted that the number of engineers in the U.S. is insufficient compared to Asia [9]. Group 3: Supply Chain Complexity - Even if assembly were to occur in the U.S., most components would still be sourced from Asia, where tariffs could further increase costs. For instance, the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise by 91% due to tariffs and labor costs [10]. - The complexity of the global supply chain makes a complete transition to U.S. manufacturing highly challenging and potentially unfeasible [11]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Apple has engaged in negotiations with the Trump administration to secure temporary tariff exemptions, allowing it to continue manufacturing in Asia without incurring additional costs [12]. - There is speculation that Apple may consider small-scale production of certain products in the U.S. to negotiate for tariff exemptions, similar to its previous commitments [12].

特朗普政府对欧盟突然加码施压，并表示美国"与欧盟的谈判毫无进展"。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。特朗普声明公布后，美国在2025年陷 入衰退的几率上升到43%。 事实上，特朗普对欧洲的不满由来已久。据媒体报道，特朗普的经济团队私下里一直对欧洲官员抱怨，欧盟成员国在贸易优先事项上的分歧拖慢了谈判进程。 他们认为欧洲在谈判中过于谨慎，不愿就美国关注的问题，如流媒体服务费、增值税、汽车法规以及对美国公司实施的反垄断罚款等，提出具体的解决方案。 分析认为， 美欧贸易谈判方式存在根本性差异。特朗普急于快速宣布协议，而欧盟领导人采取更为稳健和注重程序的谈判方式。欧盟官员一直试图找到一个应 对美国的中间立场，既不似中国般强硬，又比英国更具主动性。 白宫极限施压：耐心耗尽，重拳出击 分析指出， 欧盟官员已寻求在回应美国方面找到一个中间地带，既不似中国般强硬，又比英国更具主动性。 欧盟"佛系"谈判，惹怒特朗普 与特朗普的强硬谈判策略形成鲜明对比的是， 欧盟领导人采取了更为稳健和注重程序的谈判方式，这包括与27个成员国的频繁磋商。 这种协商一致的 ...

美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲的"财政扩 张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低。 ICE美元指数周四反弹失败，周五重挫下跌，一度跌破99整数关口。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售 ，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下， 更高的收 益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial event called "Trump Coin Night," held at Trump's golf club, highlighting the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency, particularly focusing on the involvement of major crypto figures like Sun Yuchen and the implications for the crypto industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was attended by 220 major holders of "Trump Coin," with the top 25 receiving VIP meeting opportunities with Trump [1]. - Sun Yuchen, founder of TRON, was the center of attention, receiving a $100,000 Trump-branded watch during the event [2]. - Trump's speech criticized the Biden administration's stance on cryptocurrency and promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" [3]. Group 2: Ethical Concerns and Protests - The event faced ethical scrutiny, with protesters outside the venue chanting against perceived corruption in cryptocurrency [8][11]. - Senator Jeff Merkley labeled the dinner as "the peak of corruption," and there were concerns about potential violations of federal gift regulations [13][14]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Over $148 million has been invested in Trump Coin to secure dinner seats, with 80% of the coin controlled by Trump's family and associated entities, valued at over $10 billion [15][16]. - The transaction fees from Trump Coin have reportedly generated over $300 million for insiders, with Trump's entities potentially earning up to $100 million from these fees [16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Trump Coin experienced a significant price drop of approximately 80% from its January peak, indicating high volatility and speculative nature [18]. - The article suggests that only a small group of early investors profited, while many ordinary investors faced substantial losses, characterizing Trump Coin as a typical meme coin reliant on hype and celebrity influence [19].

5月20日，国家发改委 高层 明确表态，将从创新驱动、地方约束、产业布局、行业自律四方面系统 整治 "内卷式竞争"。 对已经深陷激烈价格战多年的汽车行业来说，政策高层的指令明确。此前，顶层会议也多次明确提 出，反对内卷式竞争。 然而，政策的滞后性与执行难度，使得部分企业仍抱有侥幸心理。 长城汽车董事长魏建军 曾经对 "价格战是双刃剑"的预言余音未散，"倒闭车厂的二手车如废铁"预警 还在发酵。 过度资本化裹挟下的价格战 ，正侵蚀着消费者的利益。 在新能源车平均售价同比下滑 12.6%的背 景下，用户所持车型的保值率大幅下探，"新车当二手卖"的现象已成普遍。二手车市场中，部分车辆 上市半年即贬值超30%。消费者信任正在被反复透支，对品牌长期价值的判断趋于谨慎。 在行业深陷 "内卷"泥潭时，长城汽车董事长魏建军的声音显得愈发清晰。他直言："吹灭别人的灯， 关键是什么灯，它要是鬼灯我一定要把它吹灭了，让这个行业得到健康发展。" 在他看来，价格战不仅击穿了商业底线，更以牺牲用户权益为代价透支产业未来。当部分车企以 "亏 本换销量"粉饰虚假繁荣时，魏建军却以 务实 "精神撕开行业真相："有些产品从二十二三万降到十 二三万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government maintains a "strong dollar" policy, dismissing speculations about a shift towards a "weak dollar" or secret currency agreements [1][9][10]. Group 1: Strong Dollar Policy - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, confirmed the commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, refuting any claims of secret currency agreements during trade negotiations [1][3][4]. - Following Miran's statements, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 100.1216 before slightly retreating [2]. - Miran emphasized that the strong dollar is not just about exchange rates but also concerns the stability of the dollar system and its structural advantages as the global reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Strategy - Miran addressed concerns regarding tariffs, economic deficits, and potential recession, stating that the recent market volatility is expected during policy adjustments [11][13]. - He noted that while companies might delay investments or hiring, this does not indicate an impending recession, but rather a temporary shift in timing [14]. - The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with over 20 countries, expecting to finalize multiple agreements in the coming months, which could significantly boost U.S. exports and help reduce the trade deficit [15]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy - Miran criticized the Biden administration for leaving behind a challenging fiscal situation while defending the current fiscal strategy [16][17]. - He argued that fiscal deficits should occur during genuine crises, not during stable economic periods, and that assessments of deficits should consider various factors beyond static evaluations [18]. - Despite market challenges, Miran expressed confidence in the administration's core economic strategy, which focuses on tax reform, deregulation, and energy independence [19][20].