Group 1 - The article discusses the recent passage of the "Beautiful Act" by the U.S. House of Representatives, which aims to extend several tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduce new tax incentives [26][50] - The act includes provisions such as raising the estate tax exemption to $30 million, increasing the pass-through entity deduction from 20% to 23%, and enhancing the child tax credit to $2,500 per child [26][50] - The market has reacted negatively, with major indices like the Nasdaq and Nikkei 225 declining by 2.5% and 1.6% respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.51% [50][2] Group 2 - The article highlights a rebound in the U.S. Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI for May, both rising to 52.3, indicating improved economic expectations possibly due to easing trade tensions with China [32][51] - Japan's April CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.0%, suggesting potential pressure for the Bank of Japan to consider interest rate hikes [34][51] - The article notes that the U.S. jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with initial claims at 227,000 and continuing claims at 1.903 million, indicating a potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [36]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase during Q2, with short-term adjustments anticipated due to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and limited expansion space for new consumption [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Q2 is characterized as a high central oscillation market, with short-term adjustments expected [2]. - The upper limit of the oscillation range is supported by a combination of wide monetary policy and external demand improvements, but concerns about economic downturns remain [2][3]. - The lower limit is influenced by the timely implementation of monetary policies and the role of stabilization funds in managing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology and consumer sectors are currently not positioned to lead market breakthroughs, with technology still in a mid-term adjustment phase [2][4]. - New consumption trends are facing limitations in expanding outward due to reduced internal demand stimulus [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector (CXO and innovative drugs) and precious metals are expected to continue their positive trends in the short term [4]. Group 3: Fund Management and Market Dynamics - The recent trend of public funds aligning with performance benchmarks has concluded, with potential for a new round of market dynamics in June [5]. - Fund managers are encouraged to reassess their benchmark choices, as the alignment with performance benchmarks may not be suitable for all [3][4]. - The potential inflow of funds into sectors such as non-banking, banking, construction, public utilities, and coal is noted, although actual inflows remain low relative to market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Economic Outlook - A general expectation is that A-shares will struggle to see a significant uptick in profitability until 2025 [2]. - The mid-term outlook for A-shares relies heavily on breakthroughs in the technology sector, particularly in AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries [4]. - The combination of new merger regulations and venture capital financing is anticipated to contribute positively to high-growth segments of the new economy [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicators show varying levels of profitability across sectors, with banking at 97% and consumer sectors like beauty care and pharmaceuticals showing moderate expansion [8]. - Sectors such as public utilities and basic chemicals are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for focused investment strategies [8]. - The overall A-share market sentiment is showing signs of contraction, with only 42% of stocks indicating profitability expansion [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, with expenditure increasing by 12.9%, showing improvements compared to March [3][8]. - The budget completion rates for broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 33% and 28.4%, respectively, both higher than the average of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The broad fiscal deficit reached -2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, exceeding the average deficit of -1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support from government debt financing [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% in the same period of 2024 [10]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow, with a current issuance scale of 1.37 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 31%, lower than the previous two years [13]. - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement in growth rate compared to March [12][19]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the initiation of "incremental policies," with financial policies leading the way, and highlights the importance of monitoring the pace and direction of future fiscal expenditures [4][15]. - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" is seen as a window for accelerating the implementation of established policies and strengthening the reserve of incremental policies [15].

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours, averaging 6 hours and 23 minutes per day in 2023, has reduced leisure time, which is crucial for service consumption [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has led to a concentration of consumption during holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with only 18 days mandated for 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The service sector is a non-trade sector, and insufficient effective supply will constrain the recovery of service consumption more than that of goods consumption [4][49][109] - Employment in the service sector has decreased compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap, particularly in life services such as education and entertainment [4][60][109] Group 3 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant constraint on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The shift in investment logic from proactive to reactive, driven by profitability, has led to a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in the health and education sectors [7][90][110]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of aligning public fund performance with investor interests and enhancing the stability of fund investment behavior, as outlined in the CSRC's action plan for high-quality development of public funds [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Benchmarking - Approximately 70% of active equity funds use major broad-based indices such as CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 500 as performance benchmarks, with a similar proportion in terms of fund size [2][5]. - About 14% of active products are benchmarked against Hong Kong indices, indicating a growing interest in Hong Kong stocks among mainland active public funds [2][9]. Group 2: Industry Allocation and Performance Deviation - Financial, dividend, and computer sectors are identified as the main underweight industries, with significant absolute underweight amounts even after excluding industry index products [3][4]. - The banking and non-banking financial sectors are underweight by approximately 190 billion yuan each compared to their benchmarks, while the electronics sector is overweight by nearly 140 billion yuan [3][11]. Group 3: Detailed Industry Analysis - The analysis shows that banks and non-banking financials are underweight by over 8 percentage points, while the electronics sector is overweight by 5.8 percentage points [4][12]. - Absolute amounts indicate that the banking and non-banking sectors are underweight by around 180 to 200 billion yuan, while the electronics sector is overweight by about 130 billion yuan [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly lower than the same period last year, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3%, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices show divergence, with the West America route continuing to rise while Southeast Asia route prices have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices falling by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Group 1 - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, highlighting the need for effective fertility policies based on international experiences and China's demographic characteristics [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that timely and substantial cash subsidies, maternity leave policies, and comprehensive support systems have shown positive effects in increasing birth rates in various OECD countries [2][31] - The article notes that countries like France and Sweden have successfully raised their total fertility rates above the warning line due to robust fiscal support and well-structured childcare systems [2][43] Group 2 - China's fertility rate has been declining, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age, late marriage, and late childbirth trends [3][67] - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67] - The article highlights that the high costs of child-rearing, along with women's increasing educational attainment and employment rates, contribute to the declining birth rate in China [3][78] Group 3 - Potential fertility policies in China include cash subsidies, employment support, and improvements in education and healthcare systems [5][96] - Local governments are beginning to implement childcare subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy scale could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5] Group 4 - The article outlines the international experience of addressing low birth rates, categorizing policies into fiscal support, leave policies, and childcare education support [27][31] - It indicates that countries with comprehensive family welfare systems, such as France and Sweden, have seen significant improvements in their fertility rates due to effective policy implementation [43][60] - The article also points out that countries like South Korea and Singapore have struggled to achieve similar results due to late and insufficient policy measures [60][43]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 所以，主动公募向业绩比较基准靠拢，符合海外经验，可能是A股市场和公募行业发展的最终 状态。短期，市场博弈公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢，更偏向于是资金博弈主题，需严守性价 比，把握好节奏。 短期宏观预期难有方向性变化，行业结构也缺乏突破方向，我们维持二季度是中枢偏高震荡市 的判断。中美日内瓦经贸联合声明后，中国外需预期修复，支持A股向上挑战震荡区间上限。 但2025年供给增速中枢仍偏高，2025年内A股供需格局难有向上拐点的预期不变。中期A股基 本面节奏预期并未根本变化，暂不足以支持A股向上突破。 同时，二季度经济基本面有望脉冲式改善。中美经贸关系缓和，二季度从"抢转口"到"抢出 口"，外需从初步显现下行压力，到可能脉冲式上行。尽管基本面改善尚无法外推，但短期数 据验证有望保持强势，至少排除了下行风险。5月政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶段，宽货币及时全 面兑现。平准基金有力支撑资本市场预期，A股市场下行风险同样可控。 结构上，科技、消费、医药是A股一季报高景气的主要方向。二季度外需脉冲式改善，政策对 冲受益的消费短期基本面弹性受限。科技需要新产业趋势催化， ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the fundamental outlook is expected to improve in a pulse-like manner, supported by the stabilization of capital market expectations through the balanced fund [2] - The market is currently engaged in a game where public fund holdings are aligning with performance benchmarks, indicating a focus on thematic investments [2] - Global risk appetite is rising due to easing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by positive movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [3] Group 2 - The demand is showing slight recovery, but asset turnover rates are declining, which is negatively impacting profitability [6] - The future rhythm of the industry remains unchanged, with key catalysts for the domestic AI industry still pending [7] - The article suggests a focus on consumer sectors such as air conditioning, white goods, liquor, education publishing, traditional Chinese medicine, dairy products, and non-sports apparel [20]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 人民币国际化的进程、前景与机遇 ——全球货币体系重构与人民币国际化系列之一 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 2025年以来，为了解决美国面临的双赤字问题，特朗普上台后一系列政策极大增加了全球经 济、贸易、金融市场的不确定性。与此同时，全球投资者持有美元资产的意愿下降，特别是以 安全属性为主的美债被抛售，黄金受到青睐。对于全球投资者而言，无论是官方还是私人部 门，资产多元化将是趋势。另一方面，当前中国在全球经贸当中的参与权重，意味着人民币国 际化将不断深化。自2022年以来的人民币国际化展现出多维度深化、结构性优化与机制性建设 协同推进的鲜明特征，尽管在资本项目有序开放、金融市场体系建设等方面挑战犹存，但人民 币在全球货币体系中的实际地位和影响力无疑已迈上新台阶，正为中国建设金融强国的战略目 标提供日益重要的支撑。 从发展历程来看，人民币国际化经历了政策出击市场需求扩张高水平开放金融市场的三个阶 段：1）政策驱动 ：2009年我国开放人民币跨境贸易和直接投资的结算试点，2011年推广至全 国，人民 ...