以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍&段明珠 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 段明珠 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 这是最糟糕的时候，也是最需要冷静审视的时刻。 才两三天的时间， 金银崩完，美股崩，随后加密货币跟着崩 ， 周一开盘大A也会迎来"疾风骤雨" 。 梳理下顺序。 2026年1月30日，COMEX黄金跌破了5000美元/盎司，最大跌幅一度达到16%；白银的调整更为猛 烈，COMEX白银从高点121.785美元/盎司，最低下探至74美元/盎司，最大跌幅高达39%。疯狂之 后，金银终究还是迎来了暴跌。 同日，美股也迎来一次腥风血雨，三大股指集体收跌，大型科技股也普遍下跌。 而1月31日，比特币一度暴跌10%，跌破8万美元整数关口。这可看做一次风险预演，意味着周一资 本市场不会太平静。 为何金银突然暴跌？这是见顶还是倒车接人？美股（ 科技股 ）为何也跟着崩？对大A有何影响？普 通投资者该怎么做？本篇将一一分析。 金银为何会突然暴跌？ 导火索就是美联储降息预期出现了大反转 。 1月29日晚间，市场传出凯 ...

银价的下跌直接利好电池与 组件环节。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 在这个逻辑闭环里，"法币信用贬值"是最大的助燃剂。 沃什一旦上任，市场预计这位新美联储掌舵人主张通过缩表来回收过剩本币，从而重塑美元作为硬通货的 信用。 周五银价暴跌，周末资本市场就开始积极挖掘"银价暴跌利好"概念。 而，光伏电池就是工业耗银的大户。 白银开始暴跌。 而扣动扳机的，极有可能是一个叫凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的男人。 随着这位美联储主席热门候选人的上位概率飙升，全球资产定价逻辑正在发生剧烈反转。 此前，银价暴涨逻辑主要有3： 1.美元长期弱势预期强化了白银的"准货币资产"地位，吸引大量保值和避险资金流入，使其从"工业配角"转 变为"终极价值储藏工具"； 2.美联储降息压低名义利率和实际利率，大幅降低了白银这类无息实物资产的持有机会成本，激发其金融属 性，吸引配置型和交易型资金大规模入场； 3.工业需求刚性增长，供给弹性极低导致2021年以来持续性供给短缺且缺口可能进一步扩大。 对于还在产能过剩泥潭中挣扎的光伏行业来说，这无疑是一针强心剂——但这究竟是"起死回生"的灵药， 还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and systemic issues within the real estate channel industry, highlighting how high commissions and information asymmetry have led to corruption and exploitation of buyers [5][6][9]. Group 1: Commission Issues - Commissions have become a catalyst for corruption rather than motivation, with examples showing that a property worth 10 million can have a sales commission of 20,000 while the channel commission can reach 500,000, creating a 25-fold disparity [17][18]. - Sales agents may engage in unethical practices, such as misrepresenting self-referred clients as channel clients to claim higher commissions, a practice known as "flying orders" [19][21]. - Developers are aware of the inflated channel fees but continue to pay them to ensure project viability, leading to a culture where sales are treated as profit-sharing rather than genuine transactions [23][26]. Group 2: Information Asymmetry - Channels exploit information asymmetry, often recommending unsuitable properties to buyers, driven by the desire for high commissions rather than the clients' needs [28][30]. - The article notes that 80% of travel-related housing demand is "false demand," indicating that many buyers are misled into making unnecessary purchases [28]. - The marketing strategies employed by channels often prey on the emotional vulnerabilities of buyers, turning property transactions into a gamble rather than a service [32][35]. Group 3: Systemic Corruption - The channel system is identified as a major source of corruption in real estate, with practices such as falsifying documents and misappropriating funds being normalized within the industry [37][38]. - A case is cited where a developer's project, which should have a net profit of less than 5%, instead transferred 20 million in profits to marketing teams and external channels through unethical practices [39][40]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate industry has shifted from genuine business operations to "legalized plunder," where profits are siphoned off by individuals rather than reinvested into the company [45]. Group 4: Root Causes and Solutions - The ease of making money in the industry has led to a culture where risk-taking is rewarded, and illegal practices become the norm, especially in a high-leverage environment [47]. - The article suggests that the solution lies not in reducing channel fees but in acknowledging that property value should not be dictated by commissions, and trust should not be compromised by information gaps [52]. - To address these issues, the focus should be on creating differentiated products that do not rely on channels, as the current system perpetuates the problems faced by developers [60][65].

Core Insights - The article discusses how the establishment of 40,000 jobs by Microsoft in the Seattle area transformed the city's economic landscape, attracting numerous high-tech companies and creating a thriving innovation ecosystem [4][5][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Job Creation - Microsoft's relocation to Redmond in 1979 created 40,000 jobs, which served as a catalyst for Seattle's tech boom, attracting other companies like Amazon [4][5]. - The presence of high-tech firms has led to a "multiplier effect," where each new software engineer at Amazon generates five additional service jobs in the area [7][9]. - By 2023, the GDP of the Greater Seattle area surpassed $400 billion, ranking it among the top global cities in economic output [9]. Group 2: Innovation and Talent Attraction - Seattle has become a major tech hub, housing companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Starbucks, and fostering a vibrant startup ecosystem [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of "star scientists" in establishing biotechnology clusters, suggesting that regions with leading researchers attract more talent and companies [21][24]. - The success of innovation economies relies heavily on attracting and retaining top talent, which can be achieved through strategic investments and incentives [27][30]. Group 3: Adaptability and Entrepreneurial Spirit - The ability to adapt to changing market conditions is crucial for sustaining economic growth, as demonstrated by Silicon Valley's evolution from hardware to software and digital services [33][36]. - Entrepreneurial spirit is identified as a key driver of innovation, serving as both the starting point and the ultimate goal of innovation ecosystems [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the challenges and dynamics faced by the second generation of factory owners, particularly female successors, in inheriting and managing family businesses in China, highlighting their struggles against societal stereotypes and the need for new business approaches [4][6][28]. Group 1: Female Successors in Family Businesses - Female successors, referred to as "factory second generation," often face societal skepticism regarding their capabilities to lead family businesses, with many being compared unfavorably to male counterparts [7][22]. - The article discusses the generational shift as more educated second-generation leaders are stepping into roles traditionally held by their parents, with a notable increase in female successors [6][15]. - The challenges faced by female successors include not only external perceptions but also internal family dynamics, where male siblings are often prioritized for leadership roles [21][30]. Group 2: Societal and Cultural Challenges - The societal expectation that male heirs are more suitable for business leadership creates a significant barrier for female successors, who often have to prove their worth in a male-dominated environment [25][31]. - The article highlights the cultural inertia that female successors must combat, as they seek to establish their identities and leadership styles in industries that have historically favored men [28][31]. - Despite these challenges, female successors are increasingly finding ways to innovate and adapt their family businesses, often creating new networks and business models that diverge from traditional practices [26][27]. Group 3: Educational and Professional Background - Many female successors have strong educational backgrounds, with a significant number holding advanced degrees, which aids them in gaining recognition and respect in their industries [31]. - The article notes that the educational achievements of women in China have reached parity with men, which is a positive indicator for future leadership roles in family businesses [31]. - The experiences of female successors reveal a common theme of needing to balance familial expectations with personal career aspirations, often leading to a re-evaluation of their roles within the family business [20][31].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese rice fast food industry is undergoing a significant paradigm shift in 2026, characterized by intense competition and a focus on profitability amidst rising costs and consumer rationality [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The primary challenge for Chinese rice fast food brands remains profitability, with industry leaders like Chaoyixing reporting a mere 0.7 yuan profit on a 10 yuan meal [7]. - Rising costs for ingredients, labor, and rent, combined with a return to rational consumer spending, are squeezing profit margins, leading to a "thin profit" environment [8][9]. - The average consumer spending in the rice fast food sector has decreased from 29.7 yuan in 2022 to 27.5 yuan in 2025, with current average spending around 24 yuan [15]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Brands are shifting towards "all-day, all-customer, all-capable" models to attract a wider customer base and enhance profitability [5][10]. - Successful adaptations include diversifying product offerings and optimizing store formats, such as self-service models and expanded menu items to cater to different meal times and customer preferences [10][11]. - The introduction of new product lines, like "DIY" options, has proven effective in attracting both existing and new customers, as seen with brands like Yuyou and Laoxiangji [12]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The industry is entering a "20 yuan era," with aggressive price reductions becoming a norm as brands compete for market share [13][14]. - Major brands have implemented significant price cuts, with Dami Xiansheng reducing its pricing from 4.6 yuan to 3.28 yuan per two [16]. - The trend indicates that if average spending exceeds 25 yuan, customer acquisition and retention will become increasingly difficult [17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Dynamics - The market for Chinese rice fast food is projected to reach 277 billion yuan in 2024, with a potential to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025, driven by ongoing consumer demand [21]. - While some brands are rapidly expanding, others are slowing down their growth due to the challenges of scaling operations effectively [23][25]. - Successful expansion requires a robust organizational structure and supply chain management, as evidenced by the struggles of brands like Nanchengxiang and Chaoyixing in new markets [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The next decade for the Chinese rice fast food industry will focus on a multi-faceted approach that emphasizes freshness, transparency, intelligence, low pricing, and health [27]. - Brands that can balance cost management with quality and customer experience will likely thrive in this competitive landscape [28][29].

以下文章来源于不懂经 ，作者不懂经也叔的Rust 不懂经 . 《主权个人》：未来会活得很爽的有三种人，一是技术精英，二是各行业头部，三是有资本及良好判断 力的人。本号专注后面两种。 本文来自微信公众号： 不懂经 ，作者：不懂经也叔的Rust 这两年，AI事实上对普通人发起了一场战争。 每天都有新的模型刷新认知，每天都有旧的岗位岌岌可危。在这种"寒武纪大爆发"式的技术冲击下， 大多数人感受到的不是兴奋，更多的是一种深层的生存焦虑： 在这场巨大的洗牌中，我该往哪里走？未来的路标究竟在哪里？我们试图在算法的黑盒里寻找答案， 看到的更多只是噪音。 第一，Notion的华裔创始人Ivan Zhao写了一篇震动业界的文章《Steam,Steel,and Infinite Minds》 （蒸汽、钢铁与无限心智）。他不仅直接引用了麦克卢汉那句著名的嘲讽："我们总是通过后视镜驶 向未来"；还依据麦克卢汉的思想，提出了核心论点，"掌握材料的人定义未来"。 第二，硅谷顶级风投a16z（Andreessen Horowitz）不仅高调宣布进军"新媒介"，还在他们最新的 Newsletter里请来了麦克卢汉的孙子安德鲁·麦克卢汉，专门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI, initially announced as a $100 billion partnership, is now stalled, revealing significant differences in risk assessment and business strategy between the two companies [4][5][7]. Group 1: Partnership Background - Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership in September last year, with Nvidia committing up to $100 billion to support OpenAI in building a data center with at least 10 gigawatts of computing power [5][9]. - The initial announcement led to a surge in Nvidia's stock price, with its market value approaching $4.5 trillion [9]. - However, negotiations have not progressed, and internal doubts at Nvidia regarding the scale and risks of the investment have emerged [10][12]. Group 2: Reasons for Nvidia's Hesitation - OpenAI has been aggressively seeking computing power for its next-generation models and a potential IPO by the end of 2026, but the stalled agreement poses a direct setback to these efforts [14]. - Increased competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude series has raised concerns about OpenAI's market position, prompting Nvidia to reconsider its investment strategy [14][15]. - Nvidia's shift from a $100 billion commitment to a potential equity investment reflects a desire to maintain influence while managing risk [15]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The stagnation of this deal indicates a shift in the AI industry from rapid expansion to a more cautious and calculated approach [17][24]. - There is growing skepticism about the effectiveness of massive investments in computing power, with questions about the actual returns and commercial viability of such commitments [18][22]. - The trend of diversifying investments and risk management is accelerating, as companies like Nvidia invest in multiple AI players while OpenAI seeks funding from various sources [21][23].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the fundamental difference between ordinary individuals and top earners, which is a nearly instinctual "commercial orientation" [4][7][8]. Group 1: The Importance of Commercial Orientation - Charlie Munger's investment in coal companies, despite their negative market perception, illustrates a deep-rooted desire for profit that transcends age and impending death [5][6][54]. - Munger's actions reflect a pure respect for effective business logic, showcasing a mindset that prioritizes profitable opportunities over personal comfort or recognition [7][8]. - The article argues that many people claim to want to make money, but their actions often reveal a lack of true commercial orientation [16]. Group 2: Behavioral Indicators of Commercial Orientation - Successful investors, like Graham Duncan, define commercial orientation as the ability and willingness to create more value than one receives [10]. - A common trait among those with strong commercial orientation is the focus on long-term relationships and mutual profitability rather than short-term gains [11]. - The article provides examples of entrepreneurs whose actions indicate a pursuit of vanity or validation rather than genuine profit-making [14][15][16]. Group 3: The Mindset of Profitability - The article stresses the importance of asking, "Can this make money?" in various business scenarios, highlighting a practical approach to decision-making [19]. - It presents scenarios where individuals get distracted by irrelevant issues instead of focusing on profitability, emphasizing the need for a profit-centric mindset [20][21][22]. Group 4: Psychological Barriers to Earning Money - Psychological factors, such as subconscious hostility towards money and feelings of unworthiness, can hinder individuals from achieving financial success [24][25][26]. - The article discusses how societal perceptions and the fear of judgment can prevent entrepreneurs from making rational business decisions [28][30]. Group 5: The Concept of Delayed Gratification - Delayed gratification is presented as a crucial skill for long-term financial success, with studies showing that individuals who can delay immediate rewards tend to perform better in various life aspects [33][34]. - The article contrasts the behaviors of those with commercial orientation, who prioritize long-term gains, against those who seek immediate validation or recognition [36]. Group 6: Cultivating Commercial Orientation - The article suggests that commercial orientation can be developed through self-reflection and behavioral audits, encouraging individuals to assess how their time is spent in relation to profitability [45][46]. - It emphasizes the importance of eliminating negative beliefs about money and practicing a profit-focused mindset in daily decision-making [47][49]. - Observing and learning from successful individuals with strong commercial orientation can provide valuable insights for personal development [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the life of a Chinese student in the UK, known as "豆豆子" (Dou Dou Zi), who shares his daily experiences through Vlogs, highlighting the struggles and humorous aspects of studying abroad, which contrasts sharply with traditional perceptions of international students as affluent and glamorous [5][57]. Summary by Sections Daily Life and Struggles - Dou Dou Zi's daily life is characterized by a focus on survival rather than academics, with food choices limited to canned goods and expired items, reflecting the harsh realities faced by many international students [5][10][12]. - His Vlogs serve as a survival guide for students in the UK, showcasing the challenges of living in a foreign country, including food scarcity and poor living conditions [9][10][51]. Content and Popularity - Dou Dou Zi has gained significant popularity on platforms like Douyin, amassing nearly 4 million followers, with his videos receiving hundreds of thousands to millions of likes [9][56]. - The humor in his content often stems from his misfortunes and the absurdity of his living conditions, which resonate with viewers and provide entertainment [30][32][35]. Cultural Commentary - The article contrasts Dou Dou Zi's experiences with those of other international students, suggesting that his portrayal of student life may reinforce stereotypes about studying abroad, particularly regarding food and living conditions [66][72]. - It also highlights the psychological impact of his Vlogs on viewers, who may find comfort in seeing someone else's struggles, reflecting their own experiences or fears about studying abroad [81][84]. Economic Context - The financial constraints faced by Dou Dou Zi are emphasized, with a monthly budget of approximately 200 GBP, which is insufficient for a comfortable lifestyle in the UK, leading to a reliance on cheap and unhealthy food options [51][76]. - The article notes that the average rent for a single room in Manchester is around 900 GBP per month, further complicating the financial situation for students [51]. Viewer Engagement and Perception - The article discusses the mixed reactions from viewers, with some finding Dou Dou Zi's content relatable and authentic, while others question its realism, suggesting that it may be exaggerated for entertainment purposes [43][50]. - The popularity of such content reflects a shift in how international students are perceived, moving away from the glamorous image to a more grounded and sometimes grim reality [57][60].