景气度趋势延续，Q2 消费复苏可期 ——2025 年 4 月社零数据点评 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 消费复苏趋势良好，线上零售势能持续释放，电商行业交易额增量得到有力支撑， 维持行业看好评级。推荐份额企稳，变现能力提升的电商行业龙一阿里巴巴- SW(09988，买入)；家电 3C 品类优势、国补政策红利最明显受益者京东集团- SW(09618，买入) ；建议关注平台生态持续优化的头部货架电商平台拼多多 (PDD.O，买入)、领先内容电商平台快手-W(01024，买入)，服饰垂直电商平台唯品 会(VIPS.N，未评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；消费恢复不及预期；行业竞争加剧 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3][8] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3][8] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]

Economic Performance - In April, the US PPI decreased by 0.5%, significantly below the expected increase of 0.2%, indicating a temporary absorption of tariff costs by manufacturers and service providers[13] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, reflecting resilience in the US labor market[15] - Retail sales in April showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, lower than the expected 0% and a revised previous value of 1.7%[19] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to manifest later, as April's economic data shows structural damage due to tariffs, but current economic activities are rebounding[5] - Walmart's earnings report indicated strong sales but warned of future price increases due to the inability to absorb tariffs long-term[5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is considering modifying its policy framework to adapt to changing economic conditions, potentially returning to a traditional inflation target of 2%[20] - The recent adjustment in the Fed's framework is not expected to significantly impact current monetary policy decisions in the short term[21] Credit Rating and Fiscal Policy - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payment risks, marking a significant shift as all major rating agencies have now rated the US below the highest tier[24] - The House of Representatives has advanced a tax reform bill that could increase the deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, further straining fiscal policy[25] Market Risks - The recent recovery in US equities faces skepticism regarding the sustainability of the dollar's rebound, with global funds yet to systematically adjust their positions in US stocks[26] - Rising interest rates are expected to limit further gains in the stock market, as the current environment pressures non-US markets and commodities[27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | --- | --- | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 东方战略周观察：百日成绩单——市场与 | 2025-05-09 | | --- | --- | | 外交双震荡 | | | 东方战略周观察：对等关税冲击越南外向 | 2025-04-21 | | 型经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to increase due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025-2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,752 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31,453 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4,777 million RMB in 2023 to 9,440 million RMB in 2025, showing a growth rate of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4,920 million RMB in 2023 to 10,411 million RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 58.0 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 64.3 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.6% growth [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 15.5 billion RMB, showing a decline of 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations of continued challenges in Q2 [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD is based on a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, which is aligned with comparable companies in the industry [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - The report highlights that AI-driven advertising and gaming revenues continue to exceed expectations, with a projected increase in gaming growth rates [1][2] - The forecast for IFRS net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 218.5 billion, 248.4 billion, and 277.8 billion RMB respectively, with non-IFRS net profit projected at 265.3 billion, 298.8 billion, and 334.4 billion RMB [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [10] - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 55.8%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 47.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12% [10] - The non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [10] Revenue Breakdown - Q1 2025 value-added services revenue reached 92.1 billion RMB, with gaming revenue at 59.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 24% [10] - The international gaming revenue was 16.6 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year, while domestic gaming revenue was 42.9 billion RMB, also up 24% year-on-year [10] - Marketing services revenue for Q1 2025 was 31.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20% [10] Profitability Metrics - The report projects a gross margin increase to 56.0% in 2025 and 57.0% in 2026 [11] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 29.5% in 2025 and 30.2% in 2026 [11] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.1% in 2025 and 26.6% in 2026 [11] Valuation Metrics - The target price for Tencent Holdings is set at 539.10 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 38 in 2023 to 16 in 2027 [3][16] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5 in 2023 to 3 in 2027 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to continue increasing due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31.45 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4.78 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.44 billion RMB in 2025, marking a growth of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 10.41 billion RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 17.7% to 33.1% over the same period [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 5.8 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 6.43 billion RMB, with an expected growth of 18.6% [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 1.55 billion RMB, down 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations for Q2 to remain flat [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, based on comparable company analysis [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to the market benchmark index [6][19]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a period of intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures that are anticipated to significantly impact the banking fundamentals in 2025 [2][6]. - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is expected to provide important support for bank net interest margins, despite short-term pressure from broad interest rate declines [2][6]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by policy support [2][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: high-dividend stocks and city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and regional advantages [7]. - Recommended banks include Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and others [7]. Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) were both lowered by 10 basis points, with state-owned banks also reducing deposit rates across various terms [6][14]. - The impact of the recent interest rate cuts on bank net interest margins is expected to be neutral, with a projected increase of 3.1 basis points for listed banks in 2025 [6][14]. Deposit Rate Trends - The report highlights a trend of decreasing deposit rates since October 2024, with significant reductions across various terms, indicating a shift in the banking landscape [8][9]. - Despite the pressure from high-interest deposits maturing, the overall deposit growth remains stable, with a net increase of 1.12 trillion yuan in new resident deposits from January to April 2025 [6][14]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report anticipates a significant improvement in asset quality for banks in 2025, particularly in sectors previously under stress, such as real estate [2][6]. - The ongoing adjustments in deposit rates are expected to mitigate the risks associated with deposit disintermediation, with a controlled outflow of deposits to non-bank financial products [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6][7]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a period of intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. This is anticipated to have a profound impact on the banking fundamentals in 2025 [2]. - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is expected to protect the banks' net interest margins, while the risk of deposit disintermediation is likely to be moderate [6]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by supportive policies [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend and core index weight banks such as Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Merchants Bank (600036), and Industrial Bank (601166) [7]. 2. City commercial banks with strong fundamentals and regional advantages, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077), Chongqing Bank (601963), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Qingdao Bank (002948), and Shanghai Bank (601229) [7]. Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points, and state-owned banks announced reductions in deposit rates across various terms [6]. - The first round of interest rate cuts in 2025 is expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with an estimated increase of 3.1 basis points for listed banks in 2025 due to the deposit rate adjustments [6][14]. Deposit Rate Trends - The report highlights a trend of decreasing deposit rates, with significant reductions observed since October 2024, particularly among smaller banks, which have been more aggressive in their rate cuts compared to larger banks [9][14]. - The overall decline in deposit rates is expected to lead to a more favorable structure for new deposits, thereby supporting banks' funding costs [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report anticipates a significant improvement in asset quality for banks in 2025, driven by policy support and better management of risks in key sectors such as real estate [2]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.43% in Q1 2025, reflecting a smaller decline compared to previous years, indicating a potential stabilization in margins moving forward [6].