Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 35.554 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Adjusted net profit was 4.986 billion RMB, up 26.3% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The application of AI models, particularly the OneRec model, is beginning to enhance monetization efficiency across Kuaishou's ecosystem, contributing to a 4%-5% increase in online marketing service revenue in Q3 [8] - The report anticipates continued robust growth in the company's core business, driven by AI capabilities and the integration of content and e-commerce [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: 113.47 billion RMB - 2024: 126.90 billion RMB - 2025: 142.12 billion RMB - 2026: 155.05 billion RMB - 2027: 167.07 billion RMB [1] - Adjusted net profit projections are: - 2023: 6.396 billion RMB - 2024: 15.335 billion RMB - 2025: 18.052 billion RMB - 2026: 20.015 billion RMB - 2027: 22.099 billion RMB [1] - The report adjusts the non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 20.6 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 25.2 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to a non-IFRS P/E ratio of 12x, 11x, and 10x [8] Market Data - The closing price of Kuaishou is 64.00 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 210.21 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.37 and a one-year price range of 38.15 to 92.60 HKD [5][6]

Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index fell by 9.04% compared to the previous week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 3.77%[15] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-shares is 2.902 billion yuan, with a daily average trading volume of approximately 17.915 billion yuan, down 16.21% from the previous week[15] - The turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares is 4.31%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous week, indicating better liquidity compared to other major markets[15] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the stamp duty revenue from securities transactions reached 162.9 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 88.1%[9] - Fixed asset investment in the automotive manufacturing industry grew by 17.5% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting strong production demand and a 19.3% increase in new energy vehicle production in October[10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality, scarce leading stocks and sectors with high growth potential, particularly in robotics, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, energy storage, lithium battery materials, and solid-state batteries[25] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for North Exchange A-shares, ChiNext, Shanghai Main Board, Shenzhen Main Board, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board are 68.20, 66.81, 13.57, 38.19, and 186.34 respectively, indicating significant valuation disparities across markets[25] Risk Factors - Policy risks may affect the sustainability of market trends, with potential delays in policy implementation leading to market volatility[26] - Liquidity risks persist, as the North Exchange's overall liquidity remains lower than that of the main boards, which could impact market sentiment during shifts[26] - External environmental fluctuations, including U.S. interest rate policies and geopolitical risks, may disrupt market sentiment and capital flows[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous expansion in overseas markets, with an optimistic outlook on the increase in international business share and profit margins [1][8] - Ctrip's international business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in booking volumes, particularly in Turkey and other key markets [8] - The company's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB, reflecting strong performance and market share growth [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion RMB in 2023 to 76.17 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 21.22 billion RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 606.91% in 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 13.07 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.02 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Ctrip Group-S is 537.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 349.13 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.19 based on the latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) [1] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.08, indicating its valuation relative to its book value [5] Operational Highlights - Ctrip's outbound travel bookings have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Turkish tourism board to promote Turkey as a global tourist destination, resulting in a 38% increase in inbound flight bookings to Turkey [8] - The report notes a stabilization in domestic hotel prices and a significant increase in inbound travel bookings, with over 100% growth year-on-year [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant declines from November 17 to November 21, 2025, with the top three broad indices showing losses: Shanghai 50 (-1.87%), Shenzhen Dividend (-2.09%), and Dividend Index (-2.57%) [9] - The worst-performing indices included North China 50 (-9.77%), Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (-8.22%), and CSI 2000 (-7.37%) [9] Style Indices - Among style indices, the top three performers were Large Cap Value (-0.78%), Financial (CITIC) (-1.80%), and National Value (-2.48%) [12] - The bottom three were Small Cap Growth (-6.21%), Growth (CITIC) (-6.12%), and Small Cap Value (-5.99%) [12] Sector Performance - The leading sector index was Banking (0.42%), followed by Media (-1.41%) and Household Appliances (-1.47%) [15] - The sectors with the largest declines included Electric Power Equipment (-9.92%), Comprehensive (-9.26%), and Basic Chemicals (-8.15%) [15] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The macro timing model for November 2025 scored -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the Wind All A Index historically [19] - Despite the negative sentiment, there is an expectation for a market rebound after reaching an emotional low, particularly if the US market stabilizes [19] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced ETF allocation strategy, anticipating a wide-ranging market fluctuation while waiting for further stabilization in overseas markets [72] - Risks include potential model failures based on historical data, macroeconomic underperformance, and unexpected macro events [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "strong, change, and new" in the 2026 strategy for the trading industry, focusing on both external and internal demand, particularly through consumer exports and resource trading [1][3] Group 1: Industry Review and Trends - In 2025, the trading industry benefited from national subsidies, leading to a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in discretionary categories, with growth rates of 18-21% for various consumer goods [3][14] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a recovery in production profits, with industrial profits showing over 20% year-on-year growth in August and September [3][23] - The rise of new consumption patterns, the impact of trade wars on consumer exports, and the significant increase in gold prices present unique opportunities for the industry [3][24][26] Group 2: Future Directions for the Trading Industry - Consumer exports and trade security are expected to play a crucial role in China's economy, with a focus on building "Chinese brands" globally [3][28] - The gold and jewelry retail sector is anticipated to remain a key area of focus in 2026, despite high gold prices, as consumer habits typically lag behind price changes [3][29] - The bulk trading sector is at a turning point, with potential for the emergence of large Chinese trading groups similar to Japan's trading houses [3][30] - Retail and tourism sectors are expected to undergo significant changes and reforms, providing marginal catalysts for growth [3][31] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Strong investment opportunities include companies involved in consumer exports such as Xiaoshangcheng, Anker Innovations, and Luguan Technology, as well as gold retail brands like Luk Fook Holdings and Chow Tai Fook [3][33] - Companies undergoing changes in trading cycles and brand development, such as Xiamen Xiangyu and Yonghui Superstores, are also recommended [3][34] - New consumption trends represented by brands like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart are highlighted as potential growth areas [3][35] - Companies with low valuations, including Huazhu Group and Miniso, are suggested for consideration [3][36] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing high growth, with exports reaching 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [42] - The sector's growth is driven by China's supply chain advantages and increasing e-commerce penetration in overseas markets [42][45] - Future growth in cross-border e-commerce is expected to be fueled by the branding of supply chains and the continued rise of overseas e-commerce platforms [42][45] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is fragmented, with leading companies holding less than 2% market share, indicating significant growth potential [54] - The market concentration in the bulk supply chain sector is increasing, with leading companies showing continuous growth [54][58] - As domestic manufacturing becomes more specialized, the advantages of leading supply chain companies in terms of scale and efficiency are expected to enhance their market share [58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding the guidance upper limit by 2% to 6% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 1.47 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, driven by an increase in gross margin due to asset-light strategies [7] - The company expects RevPAR to turn positive in Q4, with revenue growth guidance of 2% to 6% [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 4.62 billion, 4.90 billion, and 5.40 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21.882 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 4.085 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 324.33% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is forecasted at 1.32 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 23.54 [1] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 23.891 billion yuan [1][8]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1.87 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 178.8 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly decline of 3.0%[12] Market Style Performance - Large-cap value stocks showed relative resilience, with a weekly decline of only 1.73%[12] - Small-cap growth stocks faced a more significant decline of 5.54%[12] Participant Performance - The active capital holding index led the decline with a drop of 7.0%[21] - The national team index decreased by 2.81%, while the social security heavy index fell by 4.0%[21] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to 2.5 trillion CNY before retracting[25] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 100, while 13 stocks hit the limit down during the week[25] Sector Performance - The report highlights strong sectors such as AI and energy security, while sectors like chemicals and steel are expected to see improved fundamentals[44] - The focus for 2026 will be on technology and security, as well as reform and growth strategies[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 1.215 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%. The gross profit reached HKD 551 million, up 28% year-on-year, driven by efficient operations of new projects like the Xi'an Xianyang International Airport T5 terminal parking lot and improved performance of existing projects [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 488 million, reflecting a 22% increase year-on-year, showcasing a significant improvement in overall profitability and a solid foundation for long-term performance [2]. - The company is accelerating its investment in the humanoid robotics sector, having established multiple industry funds that have invested in key enterprises across the robotics value chain. This includes the establishment of the "Shou Cheng Robot Advanced Materials Industry Co., Ltd." to invest in critical materials for robotics [3][4]. - The company has launched the first nationwide operational robotics technology experience store, enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement in the robotics sector [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 1.559 billion, HKD 1.959 billion, and HKD 2.319 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 586 million, HKD 775 million, and HKD 934 million [10]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 45.35%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.57 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 10.9% in Q1-Q3 2025, down 5 percentage points from the end of 2024, reflecting improved financial stability [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1]. Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has entered the final 30-day sprint phase for its full closure operation, which began on November 18. The port optimization and "second-line" regulatory facility construction are nearing completion, with the expectation of achieving a regulatory framework of "first-line opening, second-line management, and island-wide freedom" [4][9]. - The policy framework post-closure focuses on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems." Approximately 6,600 products will benefit from zero tariffs, covering most production equipment and raw materials, allowing companies to save about 20% on import tax costs. Additionally, encouraged industries will enjoy a 15% corporate income tax rate, significantly reducing operational costs [10]. - The adjustment of the duty-free shopping policy for departing island travelers was implemented on November 11, which has led to a 28.52% year-on-year increase in duty-free sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan as of November 17 [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the operational upgrade of port management as a critical step towards establishing a high-level free trade port system, facilitating the free flow of various elements within Hainan [9]. Market Review - For the week of November 17 to November 21, the retail index decreased by 7.24%, while the overall market indices also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 3.90% [12]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating that companies like China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Hainan Airport are expected to benefit from the duty-free shopping policy adjustments [11][19].