Group 1 - The medium to long-term allocation value of the North Exchange is clear, with increasing institutional participation and market expansion [2][9][30] - As of November 14, 2025, the North Exchange has 282 listed companies with an average market capitalization of 3.194 billion yuan, showing continuous high-quality development [9][30] - The average daily trading volume of North Exchange A-shares reached 1.08 billion yuan in 2025, doubling from 0.5 billion yuan in 2024, indicating significant liquidity improvement [2][17] Group 2 - The issuance of new stocks is steadily increasing, with a sufficient reserve of companies waiting to be listed and improving profitability [2][30] - As of November 16, 2025, there are 95 companies in the IPO process, indicating a promising future for new stock issuance on the North Exchange [30] - The average net profit of new three-board listed companies increased from 44.61 million yuan in January 2024 to 93.12 million yuan in November 2025, supporting high-quality expansion of the North Exchange [30] Group 3 - The North Exchange has seen a significant increase in institutional participation, with the market value held by funds rising from 3.030 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 10.307 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [3][37] - The number of funds holding North Exchange stocks increased from 49 at the end of 2024 to 71 by November 2025, reflecting growing interest from institutional investors [37][41] - The North Exchange's stock performance has outpaced other markets, with many funds achieving high returns, particularly in technology-focused investments [41][46] Group 4 - The North Exchange's new stock issuance has shown significant profitability, with the average first-day increase of new listings reaching 325% from early 2025 to November 14, 2025 [46] - The strategic investment standards for new stock issuance have been adjusted to include institutions with strategic cooperation and long-term investment intentions, enhancing market stability [46] - The potential introduction of a market capitalization-based subscription model for new stocks could further strengthen investment participation in the North Exchange [46] Group 5 - High-dividend stocks on the North Exchange are gaining attention, with 32 stocks having more than two dividends in 2024 and seven stocks yielding over 3% [48][49] - Companies such as Taihu Yuanda and Qingju Technology are highlighted for their strong dividend performance and stable earnings [51][48] - The focus on high-dividend stocks aligns with a strategy for stable investment returns in the current market environment [48] Group 6 - The North Exchange 50 index has a significant representation in industries such as industrial (36%), information technology (24%), and materials (19%) [52] - Companies within the North Exchange 50 that are also recognized as specialized and innovative enterprises are being closely monitored for investment opportunities [55] - The ongoing adjustments in the North Exchange 50 index reflect a focus on maintaining high-quality and high-growth potential companies [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the engineering machinery and forklift sectors, emphasizing undervalued growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of NVIDIA in FY26Q3, with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.0%, indicating robust demand in the AI equipment sector [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow at an annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, despite current funding challenges affecting sales conversion [4]. - The forklift industry shows a positive trend with October sales reaching 114,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by low domestic demand baselines and recovering overseas demand [4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, and others in the engineering machinery and AI equipment sectors [1][14]. AI Equipment - NVIDIA's strategic partnerships with OpenAI and other tech giants are expected to enhance AI infrastructure, with significant revenue growth anticipated in the upcoming quarters [3]. - Recommendations for AI equipment include Dazhu CNC for PCB drilling equipment and Hongsheng for liquid cooling solutions [4]. Engineering Machinery - October data shows a significant improvement in domestic sales of various machinery types, with excavator sales expected to peak at 250,000 units by 2028 [4]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others [4]. Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in both domestic and export sales, indicating a recovery in demand [4]. - Recommended companies include Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli [4]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The report anticipates a 40% growth in energy storage demand from 2025 to 2026, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [4]. - Key recommendations include suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology [4]. General Market Trends - The overall machinery industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in fixed asset investment and a rebound in demand across various sectors, including construction and logistics [4].

随着北美大厂 AI 资本开支的步伐变的更为激进、而 AI 对经济及企业盈 利的拉动效应尚未充分展现，市场对于资本开支向 EPS 传导的评估更为 审慎、开始关注"AI 泡沫"风险。在此基础上，过去两年"科技大厂算力 军备竞赛、资本开支集中上修"即可顺利带动算力行情的模式将有所变化， 未来 AI 叙事的持续演绎，除了算力本身的旺盛需求外，可能还需要看到 AI 价值创造更为明确的信号。 ◼ 一是，全球流动性紧缩之下，A 股难以"独善其身" 近期多重因素轮番作用，全球流动性呈现紧缩态势。此前阶段，紧缩格局 主要受美国联邦政府停摆影响，TGA 账户"只进不出"大量吸收市场流动 性，对美国本土冲击更为直接，亦推动美股率先见顶回落。随着美政府重 新开门，这一流动性压力已明显缓和，当前流动性趋紧的核心驱动在于 12 月美联储大概率不降息： 基于多重原因，流动性收紧压力带动近期全球资产普遍回调，A 股市场难 以"独善其身"。 ◼ 二是，海外"AI 泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及 A 股 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20251123 如何看待近期市场的调整 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Summ ...

固收点评 20251122 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251117-20251121） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251117-20251121）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 26 只，合计发行规模约 246.19 亿元，较上周减少 444.89 亿元。发行年 限多为 3 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、地方国有企业、中外合资企业、 中小微企业、大型民企；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为云 南省、广东省、陕西省、北京市、广西壮族自治区、山东省、浙江省、 天津市、江苏省、上海市；发行债券种类为一般公司债、中期票据、私 募公司债、商业银行普通债、超短期融资券、短期融资券、交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、一般公司债、信贷 ABS。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251117-20251121）绿色债券周成交额合计 859 亿元，较上周增 加 243 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为金融机构债、非金公司信 用债和利率债，分别为 384 亿元、340 亿元和 102 亿元；分发行期限来 看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is strategically advancing into the mining sector, which is expected to open a second growth curve through resource recycling [7] - The company plans to issue H shares to deepen its international strategy and is expected to benefit from rising metal prices in its resource projects [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady improvement in operational performance, with projected net profits of 8.0 billion, 9.1 billion, and 10.5 billion for 2025 to 2027 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,580 million in 2023 to 17,552 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.05% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 504.64 million in 2023 to 1,051.34 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.33 in 2023 to 0.69 by 2027, indicating improved profitability [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.53 in 2023 to 9.85 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation over time [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as **XianDao Intelligent**, **LianYing Laser**, and **HangKe Technology**. It also suggests paying attention to companies involved in dry/wet electrode equipment and dry electrode & module PACK [2][8]. Core Insights - The front-end manufacturing process is crucial in lithium battery production, directly impacting battery performance and production line stability. The process includes the formation of positive and negative electrode sheets and solid electrolyte membranes, which are essential for energy density, rate performance, and cycle life [2][5][7]. - Solid-state batteries require the preparation of solid electrolyte membranes in addition to traditional electrode sheets, increasing the complexity and criticality of the manufacturing process [7][15]. - The solid-state battery front-end manufacturing process can be divided into dry and wet methods, with dry methods gradually becoming the mainstream due to their cost, process, and material compatibility advantages [2][12][15]. - Various dry film formation technologies exist, including fiberization, dry spray deposition, gas phase deposition, thermal extrusion, direct pressing, and 3D printing, each suitable for different applications [2][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Manufacturing Processes - The preparation of electrode sheets and electrolyte membranes is critical, directly influencing battery performance and mass production outcomes [5][11]. - The film formation process can be categorized into dry and wet methods, with dry methods being the future of high-performance solid-state batteries [11][12]. - Dry film formation paths are diverse, with fiberization seen as a promising route for future mass production [11][18]. 2. Market Potential - The market for front-end solid-state battery equipment is expected to reach **8 billion yuan** by 2029, driven by the anticipated increase in global solid-state battery capacity from **17 GWh** in 2024 to **200 GWh** in 2029 [8][9]. 3. Dry vs. Wet Process Advantages - Dry processes eliminate solvent use and drying steps, leading to lower energy consumption and manufacturing costs, while enhancing material utilization and environmental friendliness [15][18]. - Dry processes exhibit superior structural stability, allowing for higher packing densities and energy densities compared to wet processes [18][34]. 4. Solid Electrolyte Materials - Solid electrolyte materials are categorized into oxides, sulfides, polymers, and halides, with sulfides currently being the mainstream technology due to their high conductivity and processing performance [21][22]. 5. Future Developments - The evolution of solid-state batteries will involve the introduction of high-performance anodes and cathodes, with dry processes increasingly demonstrating compatibility advantages [26][30].

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in precision casting, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI computing power in cooling and power supply sectors. It has established long-term partnerships with global giants and is poised for significant growth due to expanding demand in the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) market [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a global leader in commercial air conditioning compressor castings and a prominent player in engineering machinery castings, with strong ties to major clients like Johnson Controls and Caterpillar [8][14]. - The company has a high degree of customer binding, with over 10 years of collaboration with top-tier clients, which enhances its competitive edge [14][21]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has shown a stable growth trend, with a CAGR of 12.7% in revenue and 13.3% in net profit from 2016 to 2024. However, a decline was noted in 2024 due to reduced demand in the commercial air conditioning sector [23][24]. - The revenue forecast for 2023A is 1,211 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,164 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 33.80% [1]. 3. Business Segments - The primary revenue source is from compressor components, accounting for over 60% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38% in 2024. Engineering machinery components are also growing, with their revenue share increasing from 2% in 2016 to 31% in 2024 [25][26]. - The company is expanding its footprint in the AIDC sector, particularly in cooling and power supply, which is expected to drive future growth [8][36]. 4. Market Opportunities - The AIDC market is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. AIDC cooling component market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [8][37]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to recover starting in 2025, benefiting the company due to its strong relationship with Caterpillar [8][36]. 5. Competitive Advantages - The company's integrated "casting + machining" capabilities provide a competitive edge, allowing for high product customization and superior profit margins compared to peers [8][36]. - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan to align the interests of key personnel with the company's long-term growth objectives [8][36].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the main theme of China's economy in 2025 is to respond to changes, influenced by external factors such as fluctuating tariffs and internal factors like asset revaluation and investment trends [1][4] - For 2026, the focus will be on continuity and adaptation, with five key areas of transition: policy support, AI-driven supply, consumption upgrades, wealth recovery, and price stability [1][4] - Economic growth is projected at around 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining while investment growth is expected to improve [1][4] Fixed Income and Equity Analysis - The report discusses the issuance of Maolai Convertible Bonds, with a total issuance scale of 563 million yuan, aimed at funding precision optical production and R&D projects [5][6] - The expected listing price range for Maolai Convertible Bonds is between 129.60 and 143.56 yuan, with a low conversion premium of approximately 4.04% [5][6] - The financial performance of Maolai Optical shows a compound annual growth rate of 17.78% from 2019 to 2024, with revenue fluctuations and a projected revenue of 503 million yuan in 2024 [6] Company-Specific Insights - Hengyin Technology is highlighted as a leader in banking smart terminals, with a focus on blockchain technology to empower digital currency [7][8] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 500 million yuan in 2025 to 800 million yuan in 2027, with a target price of 14.4 yuan for 2026 based on a 12x price-to-sales ratio [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital RMB and blockchain technology as key drivers for future growth, with a significant increase in overseas revenue expected [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hengyin Technology (603106) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Hengyin Technology is a leader in banking intelligent terminals and is continuously expanding its blockchain capabilities to empower digital currency [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth recovery starting in 2024, with significant contributions from overseas markets and the digital renminbi [8][20]. - The strategic focus includes transitioning from hardware provider to software and service provider, enhancing its international presence, and leveraging AI in financial services [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Hengyin Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of financial intelligent terminals, providing comprehensive products and services to major banks [13]. - The company has developed core technologies for cash handling modules and holds numerous patents, positioning itself as a leading smart banking solution provider in China [13]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is projected to recover revenue growth in 2024, with a forecasted total revenue of 4.37 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 8.04 billion yuan by 2027 [1]. - The gross margin is expected to improve due to product structure optimization and cost control measures [16]. - The net profit is anticipated to turn positive in 2024, with a significant increase in profitability expected in the following years [16]. 3. Digital Currency and Blockchain - The digital renminbi is positioned as a transformative force in the payment landscape, with the central bank emphasizing its infrastructure development in the latest five-year plan [22]. - Blockchain technology is highlighted as a new generation of digital infrastructure, providing decentralized management and data integrity [37]. 4. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined a development strategy focusing on four transformations: expanding from domestic to global markets, diversifying application scenarios, enhancing product offerings, and transitioning to a service-oriented business model [41]. - Hengyin Technology aims to leverage AI and blockchain to enhance its product offerings and improve customer interactions [43][44]. 5. Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth for Hengyin Technology, estimating revenues of 5.04 billion yuan in 2025, 6.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.04 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.3%, 24.0%, and 28.6% respectively [49]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 27.4% to 30.1% during this period [49].