2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

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2025 年 6 月 23 日 总量研究 国内新基市场发行火热，被动资金流入中小盘、科创板 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250623 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.16-2025.6.20）原油价格延续上涨，权益市场指数全面回调。行业方 面，本周银行、通信、电子行业呈现上涨，美容护理、纺织服饰、医药生物 行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周权益类基金净值集体下滑，中长期纯债 型基金涨幅占优。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场发行火热，新成立基金 50 只，以股 混基金为主，新成立基金合计发行份额为 459.23 亿份。其中债券型基金 10 只、混合型基金 14 只、股票型基金 20 只、FOF 基金 3 只、REITs2 只、国 际(QDII)基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 19 只，从类型来看，股票型基金 14 只、债券型基金 3 只、FOF 基金 1 只、混合型基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周医药主题基金净值显 著回撤，金融地产、TMT 主题基金维持正收益。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 本周金融地产、T ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, influenced by a decline in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the CSI 500 down by 1.8% [1][12] - The banking, communication, and electronics sectors performed relatively well, with gains of 2.6%, 1.6%, and 1.0% respectively, while the beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical sectors saw significant declines of 5.9%, 5.1%, and 4.4% [1][12][16] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with an overall increase of 17.3% as of June 20, ranking it among the top global markets [2][19] - The AH share premium index has significantly declined from a high of 145 at the beginning of the year to around 128, representing a decrease of 10.7% [2][24] - The decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has led to a significant reduction in financing costs for the Hong Kong stock market, with the 1-month HIBOR dropping to approximately 0.53% [2][27] Group 3 - Southbound capital remains a significant portion of the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching 697.6 billion HKD as of June 20, 2025, and trading volume consistently maintaining a high proportion [3][36] - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation state, with three main investment themes to focus on: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds [4][55][57] - The domestic consumption theme is expected to receive policy support, while the domestic substitution theme may present investment opportunities, albeit with challenges [4][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently in a downcycle, with recent safety incidents leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical projects. Leading companies with better safety management and advanced production technologies are expected to benefit from stable production amidst supply constraints [2][3] - The recent suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park in Shandong due to a major safety incident will impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates, leading to price increases in the market [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to maintain long-term value [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a downturn, with safety incidents prompting tighter regulations on high-risk projects. Leading firms are likely to benefit from their superior safety protocols and production capabilities [2] Recent Developments - A significant safety accident at Shandong Youdao Chemical has led to the suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates. This has resulted in a strong cost support for chlorantraniliprole, with market prices reaching 305,000 CNY per ton as of June 20 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in chlorantraniliprole, such as Lier Chemical, and those with K amine, like Lianhua Technology. It also suggests looking at competitors of chlorantraniliprole, such as Yangnong Chemical [1][2] - For the upstream oil and gas sector, companies like China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of key chemical products, noting significant increases in diesel and Brent crude oil prices, which rose by 10.97% and 10.58% respectively over the past week [18][19] Sub-industry Dynamics - The report highlights various sub-industries, including the polyester market, which is experiencing price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes. The polyurethane market is facing weak domestic demand, while the titanium dioxide sector is seeing supply constraints due to structural adjustments [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the market's risk appetite for the innovative drug sector, with a focus on companies capable of rapid research, internationalization, and commercialization [3][24]. - The report suggests that the approval efficiency improvements will shorten product launch cycles, benefiting companies like Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and Rongchang Biologics [3][27]. - The 2025 investment strategy emphasizes structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [3][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 4.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.90 percentage points [1][18]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index dropped by 7.72%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 6.24 percentage points [1][18]. Company R&D Progress Tracking - Recent IND applications include ABSK043 by He Yu Pharmaceutical and clinical applications for BGB-B455 by BeiGene and SA102-CAR-T by Sanofi [2][31]. - RAY1225 by Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and HRS-1893 by Heng Rui Medicine are in Phase III clinical trials, while HS-10370 by Hansoh Pharmaceutical and SSGJ-612 by Sanofi are in Phase I [2][31]. Policy and Regulatory Updates - The National Medical Products Administration has proposed a draft to optimize the clinical trial review process, aiming to shorten approval times to 30 working days for eligible innovative drugs [3][26]. - The policy is expected to support key areas such as pediatric drugs and rare disease treatments, enhancing the commercialization speed of innovative drugs [3][26]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - Heng Rui Medicine: 2024 EPS forecast at 0.99 CNY, with a PE ratio of 52, rated as "Accumulate" [5]. - Fish Leap Medical: 2024 EPS forecast at 1.80 CNY, with a PE ratio of 20, rated as "Buy" [5]. - Mindray Medical: 2024 EPS forecast at 9.62 CNY, with a PE ratio of 24, rated as "Buy" [5]. - United Imaging Healthcare: 2024 EPS forecast at 1.53 CNY, with a PE ratio of 84, rated as "Buy" [5].

Macro Analysis - In May, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates both declined compared to the previous month, with strong fiscal spending focused on "three guarantees" but a significant drop in infrastructure spending growth, indicating a need to monitor local investment momentum and willingness [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, awaiting the impact of tariffs on consumption and employment, while inflation effects have yet to materialize [3] Market Strategy - Public funds, particularly passive funds, are the main variables in the market, with expectations for increased investment in broad-based index ETFs, likely driving up indices such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4] Bond Market - The current stock of convertible bonds is primarily from private enterprises, with a high proportion of low-rated bonds, indicating an increase in credit risk events [5] - Commercial banks have significantly increased their holdings of government bonds while reducing holdings of interbank certificates and major credit products [6] Retail Industry - During the "618" sales period, e-commerce platforms achieved a cumulative sales of 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with instant retail sales reaching 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% [10] Renewable Energy - Continued optimism for wind power and solid-state battery sectors, with a focus on wind turbine manufacturers and the advancement of solid-state battery production lines [11] Coal Industry - With the summer electricity peak approaching, coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom due to supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, recommending companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [12] Oil and Gas Industry - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing the oil market, with a positive long-term outlook for major oil companies and oil service firms [13] Agriculture and Fisheries - The "618" sales report indicates a significant increase in pet consumption, with over 400 pet brands seeing sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year [14] Company Research - The report on Chipbond Technology indicates a robust growth momentum in PCB equipment business despite a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to weaker demand in the PCB industry [15]

Investment Ratings - Power Equipment New Energy: Buy (Maintain) - Public Utilities: Buy (Maintain) - Environmental Protection: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - Wind Power: Document 136 reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with wind power's output curve being favorable. Sales of wind power stations are expected to recover, and profits from wind turbine manufacturing are likely to improve. Focus on wind turbine manufacturers, with Q2 performance potentially under pressure, but watch for profitability improvements in Q3 and Q4, as well as progress in sales of power stations. Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Yunda Co., and Goldwind Technology [4] - Solid-State Batteries: Companies like Winbond Technology, Xianlead Intelligent, and Xingyun Co. have completed the delivery of core equipment for solid-state batteries, significantly catalyzing the sector. Investment in solid-state battery equipment is 400-500 million per GWh, significantly higher than traditional liquid lithium battery equipment. The demand for solid-state battery materials is expected to rise due to policy support and advancements in AI PCB concepts. Recommended companies include Honggong Technology, Naconor, Winbond Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten [4] - Photovoltaics: After the anti-involution policy in Q4 2024 and the rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not deteriorate further. However, from May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, leading to further deterioration in debt repayment and profitability. Anticipated supply or demand-side policies may strengthen the sector. Focus on integrated companies with low PB ratios, such as Aiko Solar and Tongwei Co. [5] - Energy Storage: Recent stock price adjustments for Deye Co. are primarily due to European inventory factors affecting performance expectations. However, its valuation has entered a reasonable range, and it is still considered to have allocation value. Monitor monthly data on household storage in July and August 2025. The outlook for large-scale energy storage and commercial energy storage in Europe remains positive, with key focus on Q2-Q3 performance and order releases. Recommended companies include Haibo Technology, Sungrow Power, Goodwe, and Deye Co. [5] - Controlled Nuclear Fusion: Recent adjustments are mainly due to market style changes and fewer catalytic factors. Future focus should be on domestic experimental pile bidding and technological progress between China and the US. Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as an important thematic investment opportunity, with potential for market speculation. Recommended company is Hezhan Intelligent [5] Summary by Sections - Wind Power: New installed capacity in 2024 is expected to be approximately 75.8 GW for onshore wind, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind is expected to be about 4.0 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 40.85%. In the first four months of 2025, new installed capacity reached 19.96 GW, a year-on-year increase of 18.53% [7][8] - Public Utilities: As of June 20, 2025, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 619 RMB/ton, a slight increase from the previous week. Imported thermal coal prices remain stable [35] - Energy Storage Projects: Recent bidding information shows multiple large-scale energy storage projects, with a total capacity of 2830 MW and 9740 MWh across various projects [34]

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Accumulate" [6] Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction and demand recovery suggest that a temporary bottom in coal prices may have been reached [1] - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao port remains stable, while overseas oil and gas prices have increased [2] - The average daily pig iron output has risen, while the outflow from the Three Gorges has decreased [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - In May, national thermal power generation was 461.5 billion kWh, up 1.69% year-on-year, ending a trend of lower output compared to the previous year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4225 million tons, up 0.3% week-on-week and 0.9% year-on-year [3] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has been declining and is now significantly lower than the same period last year [1] Price Trends - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 609 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2] - The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 470 CNY/ton, also unchanged week-on-week [2] - The FOB price of thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, was 66 USD/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week [2] Inventory Tracking - As of June 20, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.78 million tons, down 6.47% week-on-week and 2.20% year-on-year [4] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 6.6565 million tons, down 0.58% week-on-week [4] - The average operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 61.3%, up 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - With the summer peak electricity demand approaching, and in the context of supply contraction and seasonal demand increase, it is recommended to invest in companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to drive oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $75.78 and $74.04 per barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8% and 1.2% [1][10][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both revised down their oil demand forecasts for 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the U.S. and China [2][14] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of oil and gas, highlighting that the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production [3][19] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The report discusses the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices, predicting continued upward pressure on prices due to geopolitical risks [1][11] - The conflict has already led to significant disruptions, with oil transportation risks increasing, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a substantial portion of global oil trade [3][25] Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts - IEA forecasts a global oil demand increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [2][14] - EIA's forecast for 2025 indicates an increase of 790,000 barrels per day, also revised down by 180,000 barrels per day [2][14] - OPEC+ has underperformed in its production increase plans, with actual increases falling short of targets [2][16] Strategic Developments in the Oil Sector - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to focus on high capital expenditures and strategic developments to counter external uncertainties, with production plans showing growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [3][19][20] - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation enhances the valuation of oil transportation, with freight rates significantly increasing due to the conflict [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major players in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as related oil service companies and chemical industry leaders [4][19]