Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the consumer sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in traditional consumption and specific sub-sectors such as food, home appliances, and apparel [70]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that traditional consumption has been undervalued and is expected to benefit from potential policy stimuli, particularly in sectors like dining, home goods, and apparel, which are currently at low valuation levels [70]. - It suggests that companies in the consumer sector, especially those with strong fundamentals, are likely to see valuation recovery as economic conditions improve and consumer spending increases [70]. - The report identifies specific companies within the consumer sector that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, including those in the light industry, home appliances, and retail [70]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with expectations of improved economic conditions leading to increased consumer spending [70]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators and potential government policies that could stimulate consumption [70]. 2. Mid-term Consumer Trends - The report reviews the performance of various consumer segments in the first half of 2025, noting a rebound in sectors such as food and home appliances [70]. - It anticipates continued growth in consumer spending, particularly in discretionary categories as consumer confidence returns [70]. 3. Long-term Consumer Themes - Long-term themes include the shift towards sustainable and innovative consumer products, with a focus on brands that resonate with younger consumers [70]. - The report discusses the potential for brands to expand internationally, leveraging e-commerce and digital marketing strategies [70]. 4. Industry Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a comparative analysis of industry valuations, indicating that certain sectors, such as light manufacturing and home appliances, are currently undervalued relative to their growth potential [70]. - It highlights specific companies with attractive price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, suggesting they may offer good investment opportunities [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The ultra - long credit bond market is experiencing an over - heated sentiment. The ultra - long credit bond market has shown strong performance in both the primary and secondary markets, but there are still vulnerabilities in the market due to the extreme behavior of trading - oriented investors [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Sentiment Over - heated 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics The ultra - long credit bond market is in an extremely strong situation. The central bank's support for the capital market boosts the bullish sentiment in the bond market. As the yield of coupon assets further declines, the ultra - long credit bonds have strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 656 compared to last week [2][13]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds continues to heat up. This week, the issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds totaled 31.61 billion, a 153% increase in supply compared to last week. Affected by the re - issued bond "24 Zhonghua 06 (Re - issued)", the average issuance rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly increased compared to last week. Coupled with the hot market for ultra - long bonds in the cash market, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds continues to rise [3][21]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - **Index Performance**: The ultra - long credit bond index leads the market. In the latest week, the ultra - long credit bond index had a leading increase. The weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years was around 0.9%, while the increase of the same - maturity treasury bond index was 0.77% [4][28]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds has exceeded the previous high. This week, the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ultra - long credit bonds has further increased. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10 years reached 644, far exceeding the weekly average during the previous round of the market in January this year. The total trading volume of credit bonds over 10 years also reached 167, indicating a hot trading sentiment [4][31]. - **Trading Yield**: The weekly average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds has dropped to 2.14%, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 27BP [4]. - **Investor Behavior**: The intensity of low - valuation bond - grabbing for ultra - long credit bonds has significantly increased, and the trading preference for 10 - 20 - year urban investment bonds has also recovered. The proportion of TKN transactions for credit bonds over 7 years has risen to over 80%, reaching around the 90% historical high since 2024 [4][35]. - **Investor Structure**: This week, insurance companies and funds remain the main investors in ultra - long credit bonds. Among them, funds have had a net purchase of ultra - long credit bonds exceeding that of insurance companies in the past two weeks. This week, the scale of funds' increase in 5 - 10 - year credit bonds was more than 7 billion, setting a new high since the first half of the year [41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since 2024, the significant decline in interest rates to historical lows is difficult to explain by nominal GDP changes. In the long - term, Chinese interest rates move within a non - parallel range, with the "upper limit" determined by the entity's investment return rate and the "lower limit" by the scale of "rigid financing" demand. The key force behind the current interest rate decline is the opening of the lower limit, i.e., the rapid clearing of financing demand [2]. - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory transition phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate has shifted from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations, as the financing cycle turns to expansion while the economic cycle lags behind and declines, and the interest rate digests the combined forces through sideways movement [2]. - High - frequency signals indicate a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market. Market trading sentiment is not extreme, fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified, and both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side [2]. - The market is mainly concerned about the odds constraint. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end may have changed, and the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. - Although interest rates are in a downward channel, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern still exists. In 2025, there is a seasonal pattern of cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main driving force for the bond market correction. If viewed from the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to the characteristics of cyclical downward pressure release. If there is no increase in new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Interest Rate Movement and Driving Factors - Long - term, Chinese interest rates show a "triangular convergence" trend, with the upper limit moving down and the lower limit remaining stable. The current interest rate decline is due to the opening of the lower limit, resulting in a deviation between interest rate trends and many economic indicators while strengthening the relationship with financing growth [2]. Market Oscillation and Macro - background - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate shift from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations is due to the expansion of the financing cycle and the lagging decline of the economic cycle [2]. High - frequency Signal Analysis - Market trading sentiment is at a neutral - low position, with room for further fermentation; fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified; both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side, indicating a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market [2]. Market Odds Constraint - The market is worried about the odds constraint, mainly due to the extremely flat yield curve. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end has changed, such as the relative "insensitivity" of capital costs, the long - end amplitude becoming larger than the short - end, and the long - end trading volume rising, so the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. Cyclical Adjustment of Interest Rates - Despite the downward trend in interest rates, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern remains. In 2025, there is a seasonal cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main cause of the bond market correction. From the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to cyclical downward pressure release. If there are no special circumstances, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may decline again [3]. Economic Indicator Analysis - Ten interest rate synchronization indicators are provided, including enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate, building materials composite index, etc., with their latest values, previous values, qualitative judgments, and relationships with interest rates [49]. Social Financing and Interest Rate Relationship - The relationship between social financing and interest rates is analyzed. If not considering new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. Policy - related Financial Tools - A comparison is made between the 2022 policy - based development financial tools and the 2025 new policy - based financial tools in terms of announcement time, policy goals, funding scale, operating entities, main investment fields, and project subjects [126].

多重利好共振，港股吸引力持续提升 2025 年，港股市场展现出超预期的韧性，特别是在宏观经济不确定性逐步缓解的背景下，南向资金的持续流入成为 港股上行的关键动力。截至今年 6 月 19 日，南向资金累计净买入港股的金额已突破 6960.41 亿港元，相当于 2024 年 全年南向资金净买入额的 86.16%。根据近五年数据，南向资金的流入逐年上升，尤其在 2024 年和 2025 年，资金流 入的同比增速分别达到了 172.27%和 98.87%。这一增长趋势反映了全球投资者对港股的信心不断增强，同时也表明 港股市场具备较强的吸引力。除南向资金外，港股的估值在全球股市中表现出低估优势。截至 2025 年 6 月 19 日，恒 生综合指数的市盈率为 11.3 倍，显著低于标普 500 和中证全指。这种低估值使得港股的投资性价比愈发突出，成为 全球投资者关注的重点。此外，随着全球经济的不确定性逐步缓解，资金流动趋向于从低收益的固定收益资产流向 高回报的风险资产。美联储预计在 2025 年下半年可能会启动降息周期，合并美元走弱趋势，将进一步推动资本流向 包括港股在内的市场，为港股提供了有利的外部环境。综合来看，港股 ...

证券研究报告 2025/6/24 1 行业策略：聚焦供需优化与末端赋能，布局航空及直营快递。2025H1交运各板块表现分化，关税扰动"抢出口" 集运港口阶段性高景气，快递件量高增长但价格竞争仍未结束，上游企业经营承压影响ToB物流，出行链航空铁路 出行量继续增长。2025H2我们推荐交运板块两条投资主线：1、供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板 块。2、末端持续赋能，建议关注直营快递板块。 推荐组合：中国国航H+A、南方航空H+A 、春秋航空、吉祥航空、顺丰控股。 航空：供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板块。2025年以来行业供需继续优化，预计旺季产能利用 率将继续超2019年。（1）供给端：当前存量订单较少，且波音、空客产能仍未恢复，导致订单积压（波音6500+ 架、空客8600+架），影响未来新订单交付，预计未来飞机引进速度仍为低个位数，叠加PW1100发动机维修问题， 有效运力进一步下降。（2）需求端：我国经济保持着平稳发展态势，叠加各项入境签证政策优化将推动国际线旅 客大幅增长，预计民航旅客量将保持高个位数增长。供需拐点有望于年内实现，预计2025年供给同比增长3%，累 计较2019 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation towards dividend insurance, with a strong intent and notable results. The proportion of dividend insurance in individual and bank insurance channels reached 98.9% and 88.6% respectively in the first two months, indicating a first-mover advantage in this trend [4]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth despite a high base, with a projected net profit of HKD 30 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase due to reduced income tax [4]. - The company's low valuation metrics include a PEV of 0.29X and a PB of 0.78X, indicating potential investment opportunities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from HKD 107,489 million in 2023 to HKD 122,456 million by 2027, with a growth rate stabilizing around 3% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 13,596 million by 2027, with a growth rate peaking at 44.05% in 2023 and gradually declining to 10.16% by 2027 [10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 6.92% in 2023 to 14.71% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the selection framework for sectors based on prosperity and structural changes, identifying high-growth potential in the gold and jewelry sector due to stable gold prices and shifting consumer demographics towards younger, fashion-oriented brands [4][24][28] - The beauty and personal care sector is noted for its strong performance driven by new trends and product innovations, despite a slowdown in content e-commerce channel growth [4][38] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing growth through channel transformations and product iterations, with specific companies recommended based on their product-driven or channel-driven strategies [4][47][51] Group 2 - The jewelry sector has shown a significant increase, with a 36.41% rise in the index since the beginning of 2025, driven by the emergence of new brands targeting younger consumers [16][24] - The beauty care sector has also performed well, with an 11.26% increase in the index, outperforming the broader market, particularly through the success of domestic beauty brands [16][37] - The textile and apparel sector has seen a modest increase of 5.22%, with brand apparel outperforming upstream manufacturing, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [9][47] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology for new consumer brands, suggesting that traditional metrics like PEG may not apply due to the rapid changes in these companies [5][62] - New consumer companies are expected to experience rapid valuation increases in three stages: breaking into new markets, continuous innovation, and establishing a stable high valuation [5][62] - The report identifies specific companies within the gold jewelry sector, such as潮宏基, that are successfully targeting younger demographics and adapting to market trends [70][71] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold jewelry market is experiencing a U-shaped recovery in demand, with a projected 14.13% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the second half of 2025 [26][28] - The changing demographics in gold consumption are highlighted, with younger consumers increasingly contributing to sales, shifting the focus from traditional investment to emotional value [31][32] - The beauty care sector is seeing growth driven by new ingredients and trends, particularly in the medical beauty segment, which is outpacing traditional categories [38][43] Group 5 - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector is in a weak recovery phase, with retail sales growth lagging behind overall consumption trends, but with potential for improvement [47][51] - The report discusses the impact of new retail formats and product innovations in the apparel sector, indicating a need for brands to adapt to changing consumer demands [51][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel differentiation for companies in the beauty and personal care sector, with successful brands leveraging online and offline strategies to capture market share [80][81]

2025/6/25 1 4 • 农业投资建议关注以下几条主线：1.追寻涨价品种驱动板块盈利好转，例如肉牛、原粮等产品价格的上涨；2. 政策供给端改革驱动养殖板块周期进程加速，以及产能平稳后行业平均利润的提升；3.养殖后周期需求：下 游养殖端绝对存量的好转驱动销量回升。4.外部环境扰动下的避险需求。 • 牧业：肉牛价格拐点向上，奶牛周期底部企稳。2023年中肉牛养殖开始陷入亏损阶段，行业整体去化幅度预 计超过10%，行业产能的去化逐步传导至终端供给，春节后肉牛犊牛与母牛价格已经开始上涨，看好肉牛大周 期。奶价自2021年中开始见顶回落，行业自2024年开始去产能，长期亏损下2025H2产能去化有望加速，在产 能持续下降的背景下预计2026年奶价开始上行。 • 生猪养殖：重视供给侧政策，布局优质龙头企业。2025年生猪养殖行业处于下行微利阶段且供给前低后高， 预计下半年行业有望出现亏损去产能，而供给侧改革驱动行业主动去产能，中期看行业产能有望维持在较低 位置从而提升龙头企业中枢盈利水平。 • 肉禽养殖：供给存在阶段扰动，静待需求好转。黄羽鸡：年初以来黄鸡价格表现疲软，目前整体产能处于低 位且需求端出现筑底回升，随 ...

分析师：姚 遥 执业编号：S1130512080001 联系人：彭治强 2025/6/24 1 2 核心观点：短中长期逻辑兼备， 坚定看好风电板块性机会 需求内强外盛，景气持续向上 6 3 • 当前时点，我们认为风电板块具备值得坚定看好的短、中、长期三重逻辑： • 短期逻辑：强势半年报及下半年业绩展望。年中市场关注度逐渐聚焦企业半年报，风电板块受益于上半年国内项目开工旺盛、 两海收入占比提升、部分零部件提价落地等因素，预计Q2业绩同环比增长普遍乐观，部分在25Q1即展现业绩改善弹性公司的强 势股价表现，对板块形成积极示范效应，且有望在半年报前后向整个风电板块扩散。 • 中期逻辑（核心）：此前造成风电板块投资体感较差的三大因素，在过去半年到一年内均出现明显反转。 • 1）风机价格战带动的产业链通缩转向通胀：因风机快速大型化及价格战，21-24年国内陆风机组价格从3000-4000元/kW快速下降至 1000-2000元/kW，带动上游零部件、塔筒等环节一起通缩；然而，伴随大型化趋缓、企业自律、业主对风机质量和运维成本重视 度提升，风机价格从24Q4开始持续回暖，我们统计25年4-5月陆风机组中标均价较24年全年 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]