多重利好共振，港股吸引力持续提升 2025 年，港股市场展现出超预期的韧性，特别是在宏观经济不确定性逐步缓解的背景下，南向资金的持续流入成为 港股上行的关键动力。截至今年 6 月 19 日，南向资金累计净买入港股的金额已突破 6960.41 亿港元，相当于 2024 年 全年南向资金净买入额的 86.16%。根据近五年数据，南向资金的流入逐年上升，尤其在 2024 年和 2025 年，资金流 入的同比增速分别达到了 172.27%和 98.87%。这一增长趋势反映了全球投资者对港股的信心不断增强，同时也表明 港股市场具备较强的吸引力。除南向资金外，港股的估值在全球股市中表现出低估优势。截至 2025 年 6 月 19 日，恒 生综合指数的市盈率为 11.3 倍，显著低于标普 500 和中证全指。这种低估值使得港股的投资性价比愈发突出，成为 全球投资者关注的重点。此外，随着全球经济的不确定性逐步缓解，资金流动趋向于从低收益的固定收益资产流向 高回报的风险资产。美联储预计在 2025 年下半年可能会启动降息周期，合并美元走弱趋势，将进一步推动资本流向 包括港股在内的市场，为港股提供了有利的外部环境。综合来看，港股 ...

证券研究报告 2025/6/24 1 行业策略：聚焦供需优化与末端赋能，布局航空及直营快递。2025H1交运各板块表现分化，关税扰动"抢出口" 集运港口阶段性高景气，快递件量高增长但价格竞争仍未结束，上游企业经营承压影响ToB物流，出行链航空铁路 出行量继续增长。2025H2我们推荐交运板块两条投资主线：1、供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板 块。2、末端持续赋能，建议关注直营快递板块。 推荐组合：中国国航H+A、南方航空H+A 、春秋航空、吉祥航空、顺丰控股。 航空：供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板块。2025年以来行业供需继续优化，预计旺季产能利用 率将继续超2019年。（1）供给端：当前存量订单较少，且波音、空客产能仍未恢复，导致订单积压（波音6500+ 架、空客8600+架），影响未来新订单交付，预计未来飞机引进速度仍为低个位数，叠加PW1100发动机维修问题， 有效运力进一步下降。（2）需求端：我国经济保持着平稳发展态势，叠加各项入境签证政策优化将推动国际线旅 客大幅增长，预计民航旅客量将保持高个位数增长。供需拐点有望于年内实现，预计2025年供给同比增长3%，累 计较2019 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation towards dividend insurance, with a strong intent and notable results. The proportion of dividend insurance in individual and bank insurance channels reached 98.9% and 88.6% respectively in the first two months, indicating a first-mover advantage in this trend [4]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth despite a high base, with a projected net profit of HKD 30 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase due to reduced income tax [4]. - The company's low valuation metrics include a PEV of 0.29X and a PB of 0.78X, indicating potential investment opportunities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from HKD 107,489 million in 2023 to HKD 122,456 million by 2027, with a growth rate stabilizing around 3% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 13,596 million by 2027, with a growth rate peaking at 44.05% in 2023 and gradually declining to 10.16% by 2027 [10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 6.92% in 2023 to 14.71% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the selection framework for sectors based on prosperity and structural changes, identifying high-growth potential in the gold and jewelry sector due to stable gold prices and shifting consumer demographics towards younger, fashion-oriented brands [4][24][28] - The beauty and personal care sector is noted for its strong performance driven by new trends and product innovations, despite a slowdown in content e-commerce channel growth [4][38] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing growth through channel transformations and product iterations, with specific companies recommended based on their product-driven or channel-driven strategies [4][47][51] Group 2 - The jewelry sector has shown a significant increase, with a 36.41% rise in the index since the beginning of 2025, driven by the emergence of new brands targeting younger consumers [16][24] - The beauty care sector has also performed well, with an 11.26% increase in the index, outperforming the broader market, particularly through the success of domestic beauty brands [16][37] - The textile and apparel sector has seen a modest increase of 5.22%, with brand apparel outperforming upstream manufacturing, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [9][47] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology for new consumer brands, suggesting that traditional metrics like PEG may not apply due to the rapid changes in these companies [5][62] - New consumer companies are expected to experience rapid valuation increases in three stages: breaking into new markets, continuous innovation, and establishing a stable high valuation [5][62] - The report identifies specific companies within the gold jewelry sector, such as潮宏基, that are successfully targeting younger demographics and adapting to market trends [70][71] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold jewelry market is experiencing a U-shaped recovery in demand, with a projected 14.13% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the second half of 2025 [26][28] - The changing demographics in gold consumption are highlighted, with younger consumers increasingly contributing to sales, shifting the focus from traditional investment to emotional value [31][32] - The beauty care sector is seeing growth driven by new ingredients and trends, particularly in the medical beauty segment, which is outpacing traditional categories [38][43] Group 5 - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector is in a weak recovery phase, with retail sales growth lagging behind overall consumption trends, but with potential for improvement [47][51] - The report discusses the impact of new retail formats and product innovations in the apparel sector, indicating a need for brands to adapt to changing consumer demands [51][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel differentiation for companies in the beauty and personal care sector, with successful brands leveraging online and offline strategies to capture market share [80][81]

2025/6/25 1 4 • 农业投资建议关注以下几条主线：1.追寻涨价品种驱动板块盈利好转，例如肉牛、原粮等产品价格的上涨；2. 政策供给端改革驱动养殖板块周期进程加速，以及产能平稳后行业平均利润的提升；3.养殖后周期需求：下 游养殖端绝对存量的好转驱动销量回升。4.外部环境扰动下的避险需求。 • 牧业：肉牛价格拐点向上，奶牛周期底部企稳。2023年中肉牛养殖开始陷入亏损阶段，行业整体去化幅度预 计超过10%，行业产能的去化逐步传导至终端供给，春节后肉牛犊牛与母牛价格已经开始上涨，看好肉牛大周 期。奶价自2021年中开始见顶回落，行业自2024年开始去产能，长期亏损下2025H2产能去化有望加速，在产 能持续下降的背景下预计2026年奶价开始上行。 • 生猪养殖：重视供给侧政策，布局优质龙头企业。2025年生猪养殖行业处于下行微利阶段且供给前低后高， 预计下半年行业有望出现亏损去产能，而供给侧改革驱动行业主动去产能，中期看行业产能有望维持在较低 位置从而提升龙头企业中枢盈利水平。 • 肉禽养殖：供给存在阶段扰动，静待需求好转。黄羽鸡：年初以来黄鸡价格表现疲软，目前整体产能处于低 位且需求端出现筑底回升，随 ...

分析师：姚 遥 执业编号：S1130512080001 联系人：彭治强 2025/6/24 1 2 核心观点：短中长期逻辑兼备， 坚定看好风电板块性机会 需求内强外盛，景气持续向上 6 3 • 当前时点，我们认为风电板块具备值得坚定看好的短、中、长期三重逻辑： • 短期逻辑：强势半年报及下半年业绩展望。年中市场关注度逐渐聚焦企业半年报，风电板块受益于上半年国内项目开工旺盛、 两海收入占比提升、部分零部件提价落地等因素，预计Q2业绩同环比增长普遍乐观，部分在25Q1即展现业绩改善弹性公司的强 势股价表现，对板块形成积极示范效应，且有望在半年报前后向整个风电板块扩散。 • 中期逻辑（核心）：此前造成风电板块投资体感较差的三大因素，在过去半年到一年内均出现明显反转。 • 1）风机价格战带动的产业链通缩转向通胀：因风机快速大型化及价格战，21-24年国内陆风机组价格从3000-4000元/kW快速下降至 1000-2000元/kW，带动上游零部件、塔筒等环节一起通缩；然而，伴随大型化趋缓、企业自律、业主对风机质量和运维成本重视 度提升，风机价格从24Q4开始持续回暖，我们统计25年4-5月陆风机组中标均价较24年全年 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

证券研究报告 2025/06/23 1 三大投资主线： 龙头。 风险提示：国内外需求波动的风险、行业竞争加剧、汇率波动风险、关税风险 2 家电新消费：看好新产品形态、新行业阶段两类投资机会。1、新产品形态：重点看好极具成长潜力的手持智能影像赛道；2、 新行业阶段：看好高成长潜力+国产品牌全球份额快速扩张的扫地机板块。 家电新制造：看好主业基本面扎实，布局机器人方向的优质企业。 业绩稳健增长的黑白电龙头：1、看好高股息+业绩稳定性高的白电龙头。2、看好产品结构升级带动利润率持续改善的黑电 3 板块复盘 4 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 有色金属 银行 传媒 美容护理 汽车 医药生物 机械设备 农林牧渔 环保 基础化工 国防军工 计算机 通信 纺织服饰 综合 轻工制造 社会服务 钢铁 公用事业 电子 交通运输 石油石化 家用电器 建筑材料 非银金融 建筑装饰 电力设备 商贸零售 食品饮料 房地产 煤炭 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 白色家电 黑色家电 小家电 厨卫电器 照明设备Ⅱ 家电零部件Ⅱ 绝对涨跌幅（% ...

Group 1: Virtual Assets and Stablecoins - The trend of virtual assets is continuously improving due to the enhancement of regulatory frameworks and increased institutional participation, with expectations of liquidity easing [2][18][25] - The global stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to around $200 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a clear expansion path for trading scenarios [25][26] - Various regions are implementing stablecoin policies, such as the U.S. passing the "Genius Act" and Hong Kong enacting the "Stablecoin Ordinance," which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [25][29] Group 2: Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continuous scale effects driving profit leverage [2] - The market for music subscriptions is expected to grow, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music holding significant market shares [33] Group 3: O2O Service Platforms - The trend of strong players becoming stronger is evident, with major platforms like Beike and Tuhu expected to increase market share amid a shrinking real estate and automotive aftermarket demand [2][39] - The used housing transaction volume in key cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a buyer's market, which may benefit established platforms [39] Group 4: Coffee, Tea, and E-commerce Delivery Platforms - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a competitive landscape where marketing expenses are rising [2][56] - The coffee and tea segment is highlighted as a key beneficiary in the delivery battle, with significant growth in order volumes and city coverage [68][75] Group 5: K12 Education and Training - The K12 education sector is experiencing a resurgence in non-subject training demand, with a significant reduction in subject-based training institutions, leading to a scarcity of quality compliant products [2][86] - Major players in the K12 sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are showing strong performance with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry [6] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2025, with significant advancements in fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects [5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on hydrogen and fuel cell manufacturing as the main investment lines, recommending specific companies for attention [5] Industry Data Review - In May, the installed capacity of fuel cell systems reached 333.30 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%, primarily due to delays in the promotion of demonstration city clusters [12] - The cumulative installed capacity from January to May 2025 was 255.58 MW, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline, indicating cyclical fluctuations in the industry [12] - Fuel cell vehicle insurance registrations in May were 122 units, down 84.26% year-on-year, with a total of 1,367 units registered from January to May 2025, a decrease of 33.2% [20] - The report notes that the Guangdong demonstration city cluster led in vehicle deployment with 83 units in May, while the cumulative deployment from January to May was 332 units [35] Company Performance - YunTao Hydrogen Energy ranked first in May with an installed capacity of 22,010 kW, accounting for 66% of the market, followed by Dongfang Electric and Hyundai [23] - In terms of vehicle insurance, SANY Automotive led in May with 62 units, representing 50.8% of the market share [32] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck ranked first in insurance registrations with 510 units, followed by Hyundai with 204 units [32] Green Hydrogen Projects - Green hydrogen demonstration projects have seen a total of 788.76 MW tendered, a 35% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing interest in large-scale projects [42] - The cumulative planned capacity for green hydrogen projects has reached 6.61 million tons, with an operational rate of 31.6% [50] Policy Developments - The report outlines that multiple supportive policies have been introduced at both national and local levels to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy [36][38] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved seven hydrogen industry standards, effective from November 1, 2025, to facilitate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles [40]