Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for JinkoSolar [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in gross margin, turning positive at 3.755% in Q3 2025, up 4.77 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by an increase in high-power module shipments and orders from high-premium markets in the US and the Middle East [1] - The operating cash flow turned positive in Q3 2025, reaching 2.471 billion, reversing the negative trend of -3.812 billion in the first half of the year, indicating improved collection capabilities and operational efficiency [2] - JinkoSolar maintained its position as the global leader in solar module shipments, with a total of 61.85 GW shipped in the first three quarters of 2025, while also experiencing rapid growth in its energy storage business [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 47.99 billion, a year-on-year decline of 33.1%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at -4.473 billion, 2.355 billion, and 4.233 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -4621.2%, 152.6%, and 79.8% [2][3] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is expected to be 62.171 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 32.8% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The GSHS fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with the current index at 128.5 points, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 4.5% [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.4, with the year - on - year increase remaining unchanged. In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales declines, the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment increases with an expanding growth rate, the high - frequency index of exports increases with a narrowing growth rate, and the high - frequency index of consumption increases with a narrowing growth rate. In terms of prices, both CPI and PPI monthly - on - monthly forecasts are 0.0%. The high - frequency index of inventory increases with a narrowing growth rate, the high - frequency index of transportation increases with an expanding growth rate, and the high - frequency index of financing increases with an expanding growth rate [2][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The GSHS fundamental high - frequency index for the current period is 128.5 points (previous value: 128.4 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 4.5% (previous value: 4.7%) [2][10]. Production: PTA开工率小幅上行 - The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9%, the polyester operating rate is 89.7%, the semi - tire operating rate is 73.4%, the full - tire operating rate is 65.3%, the PTA operating rate is 78.4%, the PX operating rate is 87.1%, and the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 56.0 tons [16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 30.8 million square meters, and the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 3.8% [28]. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Increases Slightly - The asphalt operating rate is 31.5% [44]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Increases - The CCFI index is 1021.4 points, and the RJ/CRB index is 300.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continues to Decline - The daily average movie box office is 30880000 yuan [55]. CPI: Pork Wholesale Price Increases Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.5 yuan/kg [63]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 770 yuan/ton, the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 65 US dollars/barrel, the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10964 US dollars/ton, and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2868 US dollars/ton [70]. Transportation: Number of Flights Decreases Slightly - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 40000000 person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index is 1049 points, and the number of domestic flights is 12461 [81]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 8.5 tons, and the soda ash inventory is 169.7 tons [87]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Increases Slightly - The net financing of local bonds is 178 billion yuan, the net financing of credit bonds is - 12.6 billion yuan, the 6M state - owned stock silver bill rediscount rate is 0.47%, and the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate is - 1.16% [99].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, with store adjustments nearing completion and improvements in supply chain efficiency expected to enhance operational metrics in the future [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue at 12.486 billion yuan, down 25.55% year-on-year, and a net loss of 469 million yuan [2][3]. - The company has opened 2 new stores and closed 104 stores in Q3 2025, resulting in a closure loss of 612 million yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue was 12.486 billion yuan, a 25.55% decrease year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 42.434 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 22.21% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 19.84%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, while the cumulative gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 20.52%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points [2]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -469 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a net profit of -700 million yuan after excluding non-recurring items [3]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.14 billion yuan, down 69.82% year-on-year [1]. Strategic Initiatives Summary - As of September 30, 2025, the company had 450 stores, with 222 undergoing adjustments, and same-store sales have turned positive for the first three quarters [3]. - The company is actively upgrading its supply chain and simplifying its supplier system, achieving a supplier elimination rate of 40.4% [3]. - The company aims to launch 100 billion-yuan-level products within three years, having already introduced over 20 quality products, with 15 products achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [3].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 03 年 月 日 量化点评报告 十一月配置建议：关注小盘+价值的均衡配置 资产配置：A 股赔率回归中性。 1）A 股：中等赔率-中高胜率品种。基于 ERP 和 DRP 的标准化数值等权 计算 A 股赔率，截至 10 月底 A 股赔率下行至 0 轴，回归中性水平，近期 中国主权 CDS 指标小幅上行，使得 A 股胜率下降至 10%。 2）债券：中低赔率-中等胜率品种。近期债券赔率大幅回升，但仍处于 -0.8 倍标准差的中低水平；债券胜率指标由于 CDS 上行回正到 3%，处于中等 胜率水平。 3）美股：极低赔率-中低胜率品种。美股 AIAE 指标当前处于 55%的历史 最高点，位于 2.4 倍标准差水平，回撤风险仍然较高；10 月 FOMC 会议公 告意外信号显示政策宽松不及预期，使得流动性指数转负，位于-20%的中 低水平，当下美股失去胜率支撑，回调风险较高。 风格配置：小盘和价值风格优势凸显。小盘风格配置价值提升：小盘风格 近期拥挤度大幅消化，呈现出"强趋势-低拥挤"的特征，配置价值有所修 复；价值低波微观打分较高：当前价值和低波风格三标 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - A-share earnings show marginal improvement with accelerated revenue growth in Q3 2025 [4] - DuPont analysis indicates that profitability, operational efficiency, and financial leverage are all under pressure [4] - The inventory cycle is stabilizing at the bottom, with weakened capacity utilization and low expansion indicators [4] - Overall cash flow is recovering, although operational performance is weakening, investment is declining, and financing is increasing [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a 9.5% increase in January and a 15.2% increase in March, with a 2.4% increase over the year [2] - The banking sector experienced a 5.9% increase in January but a 4.1% decrease in March, with a 13.7% increase over the year [2] - The steel industry had a 3.7% increase in January, a 9.1% increase in March, and a significant 23.7% increase over the year [2] - The automotive sector saw a decline of 3.6% in January, but a 24.3% increase over the year [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Rongtai Co., Ltd. focuses on the automotive aluminum die-casting sector and is expanding into robotics, with major clients including Bosch and Thyssenkrupp [9][10] - The company aims for a revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year or a net profit growth of over 15% by 2025 [9] - SanKe Tree reported a 2.69% year-on-year revenue increase to 93.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant 81.22% increase in net profit [15][16] - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue reached $33.1 billion, a 40.8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.5% [18][19] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a 56.8% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 125% [21][22] - Muyuan Foods reported a 27% increase in pig sales in the first three quarters of 2025, with a steady decline in production costs [23] - Yaxiang Integrated reported a 40% increase in Q3 2025 performance, driven by improved gross margins and overseas orders [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, based on strong AI demand and gradual capacity release [3][5]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, surpassing the previous guidance of $31.8-$33 billion [1]. - The company's gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, 2% higher than the upper guidance limit, attributed to cost improvements and increased capacity utilization [1]. - TSMC's net profit for the quarter was $15.1 billion, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year growth [1]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) has steadily increased, with 74% of total wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [1]. Demand Perspective - AI demand has strengthened compared to three months ago, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 57% of revenue in Q3 2025, followed by smartphones at 30% [2]. - Despite geopolitical impacts on shipments to mainland China, TSMC remains confident in achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next few years [2]. Supply Perspective - TSMC is continuing its capacity expansion plans, with multiple 2nm fabs being prepared in Taiwan and accelerated expansion in Arizona, USA, to meet strong AI demand [2]. - The company is also acquiring additional land to support its expansion plans, with ongoing construction of a second fab in Japan and progress on a special process fab in Dresden, Germany [2]. Financial Guidance - For Q4 2025, TSMC projects revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, with a gross margin range of 59.0%-61.0% [3]. - The company has raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $40-$42 billion, up from the previous range of $38-$42 billion [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at NT$3.72 trillion, NT$4.50 trillion, and NT$5.51 trillion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 21%, and 22% respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's projected net profit for 2025 is NT$1.65 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [4]. - The company's earnings per ADS are expected to be $10.37 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 28x for 2026 [4]. - Key financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 29.6% in 2025, with a projected P/B ratio of 8.5 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high profit margin in Q3 2025, with revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 125% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in profit margins is attributed to scale effects, a higher proportion of silicon photonics shipments, and increased sales of 800G and 1.6T products [1]. - The company is experiencing significant inventory growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to meet future demand [1]. - The company is benefiting from the global ramp-up of 800G optical modules and is entering the production ramp-up phase for 1.6T products, with expectations for strong growth in the coming quarters [2]. - The company has developed capabilities for 3.2T products and is actively exploring advanced areas such as LPO/LRO and CPO, laying the groundwork for diversified future demand [2]. - The potential market space for scale-up is projected to be 5-10 times that of scale-out, positioning the company to lead in the next round of technological upgrades [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 35.28 billion yuan in 2025, 72.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 102.64 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 47.8%, 106.8%, and 40.7% respectively [5]. - The net profit is expected to reach 10.40 billion yuan in 2025, 22.28 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 101.2%, 114.2%, and 40.7% respectively [5]. - The report projects an increase in EPS to 9.36 yuan in 2025, 20.05 yuan in 2026, and 28.22 yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 50.5 in 2025 to 16.8 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [5].

Group 1 - A-share earnings growth shows marginal improvement, with cumulative net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 at 5.54% and 1.89% respectively, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter change of 2.89 and 0.59 percentage points [1][17][20] - Revenue growth in A-shares has accelerated, marking four consecutive quarters of recovery, with cumulative revenue growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 at 1.40% and 0.76% respectively, with quarter-on-quarter changes of 1.22 and 0.94 percentage points [2][28][29] - The technology TMT, midstream manufacturing, and financial sectors have shown superior earnings growth, with cumulative net profit growth in Q3 2025 for these sectors at 21.43%, 12.90%, and 6.48% respectively [3][25][44] Group 2 - The DuPont analysis indicates that profitability, operational efficiency, and financial leverage have all negatively impacted the return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares, with Q3 2025 ROE at 6.38%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.76% [4][49][52] - The inventory cycle for non-financial A-shares is stabilizing at the bottom, with signs of a shift from passive to active inventory replenishment, although fixed asset turnover continues to decline, indicating an ongoing supply-demand imbalance [5][6][4] - Cumulative net profit growth for industries with high growth and marginal improvement in Q3 2025 includes steel, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, while cumulative revenue growth in these sectors also showed significant improvement [3][44][46]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is deeply engaged in the automotive aluminum die-casting sector and is expanding into the robotics field through acquisitions, aiming for new growth momentum [1][3]. - The company has established a strong customer base, with the top five clients accounting for 84% of revenue by 2024, including major players like Bosch and Thyssenkrupp [1][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of automotive lead screws and the expansion into new energy vehicle components, projecting significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Automotive Lightweight Die-Casting and Robotics Core Sector - The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of automotive aluminum die-casting parts and is entering the core components of humanoid robots [13]. - It has a history of expanding its business and enhancing its global strategy since its establishment in 2000, including partnerships with Bosch and the establishment of production bases in Mexico and Thailand [13][48]. 2. Financial Performance and Structural Optimization - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2024, driven by the lightweight trend in new energy vehicles [22]. - Revenue from automotive-related businesses increased from 0.9 billion to 1.9 billion from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 21% [23]. - The gross margin has remained stable between 22% and 24% over the past three years, with a slight increase in 2024 [28]. 3. Steering Business: Accelerating Smart Steering System Transformation - The domestic market for automotive aluminum die-casting parts is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2021 to 2030, with the market size reaching 186.3 billion in 2023 [37]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading global firms, enhancing its competitive advantage through a global production layout [46]. 4. Robotics Business: Joint Ventures in the Robotics Sector - The company has formed joint ventures to enter the robotics lead screw market, leveraging high-precision products recognized by military research institutions [3]. - The acquisition of a motor company aims to enhance its capabilities in the robotics motor sector, creating product synergy [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.78 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [1]. - The company has improved production efficiency and reduced costs, with a total cost of sales for pigs in Q3 at 11.7 yuan/kg, showing a steady decline in costs over the months [1]. - The company has responded to national capacity control measures by reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7% [1]. - The slaughtering business has shown significant improvement, with 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and achieving profitability in Q3 [2]. - The company is exploring overseas market opportunities for future growth, indicating a strategic direction for capital expenditure [2]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.667 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, followed by an increase of 124.9% in 2026, and a decrease of 25% in 2027 [2]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 17.5x, with a projected EPS of 2.87 yuan [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 137.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous year [3].