证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 积极参与突破，重视业绩定价 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】6 月 PMI 延续反弹的背后——20250630 【策略】7 月策略观点与金股推荐：积极参与突破，重视业绩定价—— 20250630 【海外】关注相关政策和旺季催化——2025 年 7 月海外金股推荐—— 20250630 【策略】中报业绩线索的交易思路——20250630 【固定收益】乘用车零售批发回升——基本面高频数据跟踪—— 20250630 【固定收益】踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略——20250630 【轻工制造】新型烟草大势所趋，龙头全面发力 HNB，我国企业有望受 益几何？——20250630 【电子】硬蛋创新（00400.HK）-稀缺 AI 算力芯片供应商，硬件+软件 平台化布局——20250630 研究视点 【计算机】重要虚拟资产牌照获批，金融创新加速落地——20250630 【环保】绿色低碳建设加速推进，碳足迹管理迎新机遇——20250630 作者 | 分析师 顾晟 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 关注相关政策和旺季催化——2025 年 7 月海外金股推荐 近期重点事件： 关注 7 月关税政策、政治局会议、国常会等。央视新闻指出，7 月 9 日是美国政府暂 停征收所谓"对等关税"90 天的截止期限。而白宫的最近表态显示，特朗普政府可能 推迟这个截止期。国内政策方面，按惯例年中政治局会议一般于 7 月底召开，重点关注 对经济形势和下半年政策的定调。 6 月 24 日，国新办举行发布会，会上提及阅兵相关内容。阅兵领导小组办公室副主 任、军委联合参谋部作战局少将副局长吴泽棵表示，这次参阅的所有装备均为国产现役 主战装备，我们在展示新一代传统武器装备的基础上，也安排部分无人智能、水下作 战、网电攻防、高超声速等新型作战力量参阅，体现我军适应科技发展和战争形态演 变、打赢未来战争的强大能力。 特斯拉 Robotaxi 开始运营，小米 Yu7 需求火爆，继续关注国内整车厂新车及智驾模 型迭代情况。当地时间 6 月 22 日，特斯拉的 Robotaxi（无人驾驶出租车）正式在美国 得州奥斯汀开始运营。上线首日共有 35 辆车，车费 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy on Mid-Year Performance Clues - The report emphasizes that July and August are critical periods for A-share listed companies to disclose mid-year results, and performance clues may become a significant trading direction in the market [1][14] - Specific trading strategies are outlined based on empirical backtesting, focusing on selecting stocks with certain characteristics and optimal holding periods to achieve higher excess win rates and returns [1][14] - In early July, stocks showing month-on-month improvement or relatively high growth are highlighted, with a recommended holding period of 10 days for optimal performance [1][15] Group 2: July Mid-Month and Late Month Strategies - In mid-July, stocks with a price increase of over 5% and relatively high growth should be selectively chosen, as excess win rates peak on the third day after performance disclosure [2][14] - By late July, the strategy suggests that stocks with a price increase of over 5% do not require excessively high absolute growth rates, with a 10-day holding period being favorable [2][3] Group 3: August Performance and Selection Criteria - In early August, the number of stocks meeting selection criteria is limited, leading to higher volatility; a strategy combining relative high growth and a price increase of over 5% is recommended [3][14] - Mid-August strategies suggest a 5-day holding period for stocks with a price increase of over 5% and relatively high growth, with excess win rates improving significantly [3][14] - By late August, during the peak disclosure period, stricter selection criteria are advised, with a strategy yielding a 70% excess win rate for stocks with over 50% growth and a price increase of over 5% [4][14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the period of July to August is crucial for A-share listed companies' interim report disclosures, and performance clues may become an important trading direction in the market [2][20] - The report outlines specific trading strategies based on performance characteristics of individual stocks, including holding periods and conditions for selecting stocks to achieve higher excess win rates and returns [2][20] - In early July, stocks with performance improvement or relatively high growth showed significant improvement, with excess win rates and excess returns increasing by 7% and 1.42% respectively for stocks with performance growth greater than 0% [2][21] Group 2 - In mid-July, stocks with a price increase greater than 5% and relatively high growth required careful selection after three days, with excess win rates increasing from 54% to 57% when performance absolute growth thresholds were relaxed [2][28] - In late July, the strategy of selecting stocks with a price increase greater than 5% while relaxing the absolute growth threshold led to a significant increase in excess win rates, with a preferred holding period of 10 days [2][4] - In early August, the number of eligible stocks was relatively low, and a "broad net" strategy could create average returns, but excessive volatility could impact overall performance [2][5] Group 3 - In mid-August, combining a price increase greater than 5% with relatively high growth conditions improved excess win rates significantly, with a preferred holding period of 5 days [2][5] - In late August, during the concentrated disclosure phase, stricter selection criteria led to better backtest performance, with a strategy of performance growth greater than 50% and a price increase greater than 5% achieving a 70% excess win rate [2][5]

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 环保 绿色低碳建设加速推进，碳足迹管理迎新机遇 聚焦碳足迹管理，绿色制造产业加速成型。1、工业和信息化部部署产品 碳足迹核算、资源综合利用标准急用攻坚，绿色低碳产业、数绿协同领域 标准创新引领，节能节水、绿色制造领域标准提升更新等三大行动。明确 未来三年标准制修订重点方向，提出加强标准化技术能力建设、政策标准 衔接、标准贯标达标等保障措施，进一步发挥标准化工作效能，支撑产业 高质量发展。意见重点聚焦于低碳发展、节能领域，建议关注环境监测领 域聚光科技。2、四川省 15 部门联合印发《四川省碳足迹管理体系建设实 施方案》，明确 2027 和 2030 碳足迹管理体系建设的节点目标。意见确定 了碳足迹核算标准发展目标，明确了碳足迹核算产品类目，鼓励投资机构 和评级机构将产品碳足迹纳入环境、社会和治理（ESG）及可持续发展尽 职调查，从而有序推进产品碳标识在消费品领域的推广应用。意见重点聚 焦于碳足迹管理领域，建议关注环境监测领域聚光科技。 当周碳交易行情：当周（6.23-6.27）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高价 77.20 元/ ...

另一个是"资资产" 可能的再现。今年资产供给前置，一半以上的政府债 券净融资在上半年，如果不新加预算，政府债券净融资月均同比多增量将 从上半年 7000 亿左右下降到下半年的负值，同时实际利率上升抑制非政 府债券社融。因而下半年资产供给节奏将放缓。但资金供给充足，这决定 配置力量旺盛。居民持续增加存款、保险、理财、货基债基等低风险偏好 资产配置。而央行主动和被动的也会增加资金投放，一方面上半年同比多 增的财政存款会在 3 季度左右投放，另一方面，央行对流动性呵护增强， 5 月以来资金投放增加。如果后续央行开启国债买卖，那么市场将进一步 向资产"的方向演进。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益年度策略 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 年度策略 踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略 2025 年上半年债市大幅波动，外部扰动明显加大。24 年底利率开启快速 下行，这在 25 年初延续，10 年国债一度突破 1.6%的低位。而后随着资 金的收紧，以及春节之后银行抛券压力的上升，市场开始了大幅调整。10 年国债最高一度达到 1.9%附近，而仅 30bps 的调整幅度也是长债 2023 年以来最 ...

重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观—6 月延续"抢出口"，成色几何？——20250629 【宏观】5 月企业盈利再度转负的背后——20250627 【金融工程】沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨—— 20250629 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值与拥挤度分数弱化—— 20250628 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 杨然 2025 06 30 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 中钨高新（000657.SZ）-背靠五矿集团，全球领先的钨一体化巨 擘 今日概览 研究视点 【煤炭】地缘政治加剧天然气价格波动，欧洲煤炭市场再度补库催化煤 价——20250629 【纺织服饰】波司登（03998.HK）-FY2025 圆满收官，期待产品创新驱 动羽绒主业持续增长——20250627 作者 【固定收益】债市的季节性及其来源——20250629 【固定收益】财政的新特点与后手——20250629 【固定收益】央行呵护，资金平稳跨季——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250628 【银行】短暂回调后，银行股怎么看？——20250629 【有色金属】中钨高新（000657.SZ）-背靠五矿集团，全球领先的 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 28 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周估值与拥挤度分数弱化 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比下降，宏观基本面、资金&趋势分 数变化不大，拥挤度&反转分数下降显著，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前 的综合打分为-0.10 分，整体为中性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如 下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向、信用方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向与增长 强度发出看空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标分数下降，当前市场的估值 面得分为-0.1 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 量化周报 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨。本周（6.23-6.27）， 大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收涨 1.91%。在此背景下，沪深 300、深证 成指、创业板指、中小 100、军工、电子、计算机纷纷确认日线级别上涨。 当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由于上 证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创业板 指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因 此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上 涨。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创 业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪 结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中， 且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始， 而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng [4][12][33]. Core Insights - Nike's FY2025Q4 revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 86% due to increased discounts and marketing expenses [1][16]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction, expecting to normalize inventory levels by the end of FY2026H1 [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector, predicting a recovery in performance and valuation in 2025, driven by outdoor and running demand [7][29]. Summary by Sections Nike's Performance - Nike's FY2025Q4 revenue was $11.1 billion, with a 12% year-on-year decline; direct sales fell by 14% and wholesale by 9% [1][16]. - The gross margin decreased by 4.4 percentage points to 40.3%, while SG&A expenses rose by 5 percentage points to 37.4% [1][16]. - For FY2025, Nike's total revenue was $46.3 billion, down 9% year-on-year, and net profit fell 44% to $3.2 billion [1][16]. Inventory Management - As of May 2025, Nike's inventory remained high at $7.5 billion, but the company is implementing various strategies to reduce it [2][21]. - The report notes that all major regions are actively working on inventory reduction, with strong sales in running and training categories [3][24]. Regional Performance - North America: FY2025Q4 revenue decreased by 11%, with significant progress in inventory reduction despite challenges from new supply and tariffs [28]. - EMEA: Revenue fell by 10%, but inventory levels remained stable, with running and training categories showing growth [28]. - Greater China: Revenue dropped by 20%, with a focus on deep inventory clearance through discounts [28]. - APLA: Revenue decreased by 3%, with a shift towards full-price sales in e-commerce [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [7][29]. - Key companies highlighted include Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng, with respective PE ratios for 2025 of 18x, 11x, and 12x [12][33].