证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 AI 与康波——多行业联合人工智能 6 月报 策略研究 策略专题 2025 年 06 月 17 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：耿琛 电话：0755-82755859 邮箱：gengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517100004 证券分析师：岳阳 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：刘欣 电话：010-63214660 邮箱：liuxin3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521010001 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][57]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive outlook on the aviation sector, particularly regarding the upcoming summer travel season, driven by improved demand and operational metrics [8]. - Key factors supporting this outlook include resilient domestic demand, ongoing recovery in international routes, and supply constraints in the market [8]. - The report highlights specific airlines, such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, as leaders in the domestic regional market, while also noting the potential for China National Aviation to release elasticity in operations [8]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In May, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (11.5%), followed by Eastern Airlines (9.3%) and Southern Airlines (5.0%) [2]. - For RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers), Eastern Airlines showed the highest growth at 15.4%, with Spring Airlines at 11.7% [2]. - Cumulative data from January to May indicates Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (8.9%) and Eastern Airlines in RPK growth (12.7%) [2]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic routes in May saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 10.9% and RPK growth of 12.0% [3]. - Internationally, Juneyao Airlines led with an ASK growth of 50.1% and RPK growth of 66.7% in May [3]. - Cumulative data for international routes from January to May shows Juneyao Airlines with a significant ASK growth of 69.5% and RPK growth of 71.2% [3]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in May was highest for Spring Airlines at 91.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [4]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 6 aircraft in May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [4]. Market Performance - The aviation sector's total market capitalization is reported at 730.725 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 514.519 billion yuan [6]. - The absolute performance of the sector over the last month was -3.3%, while the relative performance was +2.8% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report is a daily tracking of the convertible bond market on June 16, 2025. It shows that the convertible bond market had an incremental increase with a rising valuation. The market sentiment was positive, and different market segments and industries had varying performance [1]. 3. Section Summaries Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.25%环比, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%环比, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%环比, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%环比, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.32%环比, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.68%环比 [1]. - Market style: Large-cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large-cap growth stocks decreased 0.07%环比, large-cap value stocks rose 0.60%环比, mid-cap growth stocks decreased 0.46%环比, mid-cap value stocks decreased 0.05%环比, small-cap growth stocks rose 0.19%环比, and small-cap value stocks rose 0.12%环比 [1]. - Fund performance: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 69.048 billion yuan, a 10.96%环比 increase. The total trading volume of the Wind All A was 1.243641 trillion yuan, a 17.31%环比 decrease. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.73 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond decreased 0.08bp环比 to 1.64% [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Bond price: The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high-price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.96 yuan, a 0.23%环比 increase. Among them, the closing price of equity-biased convertible bonds was 164.50 yuan, a 0.60%环比 increase; the closing price of debt-biased convertible bonds was 111.58 yuan, a 0.11%环比 increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 121.14 yuan, a 0.13%环比 increase. The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 24.47%, a 0.9pct环比 increase [2]. - Bond valuation: The valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100-yuan par value was 22.85%, a 0.15pct环比 increase; the overall weighted par value was 89.88 yuan, a 0.58%环比 increase. The premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds was 4.58%, a 0.20pct环比 increase; the premium rate of debt-biased convertible bonds was 91.56%, a 0.52pct环比 increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.24%, a 0.40pct环比 decrease [2]. Industry Performance - Stock market: Among the A-share markets, the top three industries with the highest increases were media (+2.70%), communication (+2.11%), and computer (+1.99%); the top three industries with the highest decreases were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.76%), beauty care (-0.49%), and non-ferrous metals (-0.43%) [3]. - Convertible bond market: A total of 22 industries in the convertible bond market rose. The top three industries with the highest increases were computer (+2.30%), building materials (+1.97%), and basic chemicals (+1.10%); the top three industries with the highest decreases were environmental protection (-1.56%), light industry manufacturing (-0.46%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.25%) [3]. Industry Rotation Media, communication, and computer led the rise in the industry rotation. The report also provides detailed information on the daily, weekly, monthly, and year-to-date increases of stocks and convertible bonds in various industries, as well as the valuation quantiles of stocks [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the wind power industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the wind power sector, including a total of 48.5GW of wind turbines awarded in 2025, with offshore and onshore projects accounting for 6.8GW and 41.7GW respectively [10][17]. - The average bidding price for offshore wind turbines is reported at 2357 CNY/kW, while onshore turbines average 1977 CNY/kW [10][13]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: high domestic offshore wind project reserves, increased onshore wind bidding activity, and regional growth in overseas installations [18]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - In the week of June 9-15, 2025, 0.5GW of offshore wind projects were awarded in Guangdong, with an average price of 2357 CNY/kW [10][8]. - The total awarded wind turbines for 2025 so far is 48.5GW, with a breakdown of 6.8GW offshore and 41.7GW onshore [10][17]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of June 15, 2025, there are 68GW of competitive allocation, 16GW approved, 7GW of turbine bidding, 9GW of submarine cable bidding, and 15GW under construction for offshore wind projects [17][18]. - Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian are noted for having the highest number of existing projects [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: high reserves of domestic offshore wind projects, increased bidding for onshore wind, and growth in overseas installations [18]. - Companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [18].

Funding Supply - The newly established shares of equity public funds decreased significantly to 1.1 billion yuan, down from 9.5 billion yuan, representing a 29% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net inflow of margin financing increased to 7.9 billion yuan, compared to 6.9 billion yuan, maintaining a 72% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net subscription of stock ETFs was -18.1 billion yuan, marking a low of 6% over the past three years[4] Funding Demand - Equity financing rose to 5.7 billion yuan, reaching a 30% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net outflow of industrial capital increased to 4.6 billion yuan, representing a 56% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net inflow of southbound funds was 14.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of over 10 billion yuan weekly for four consecutive weeks, with a 69% percentile over the past three years[4] Market Trends - The total market value of restricted shares released was 62.4 billion yuan, significantly up from 28.9 billion yuan, at a 56% percentile over the past three years[4] - The trading heat in the medical services sector rose to a high of 92%, while the military industry saw a significant drop of 14 percentage points to 77%[39][42] - The overall sentiment in ETF funding is at a low point, with a notable outflow indicating bearish market conditions[19]

Policy Developments - The Chinese government is promoting the replication of pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to enhance institutional openness while maintaining risk control[2] - Shenzhen is set to expand its reform and innovation tasks in finance, low-altitude economy, data, and pharmaceuticals, allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[2][3] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to revise and expand the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment" to facilitate foreign investment and reinvestment in China[3] Economic Measures - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by activating demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on risk mitigation[7][22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing issues in the automotive sector, including reducing "involution" in the new energy vehicle industry and ensuring payment terms do not exceed 60 days[7] - A new policy aims to improve social security and public services, including raising the minimum wage and expanding access to quality education[8][27] Trade Relations - The U.S. has agreed to impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods, while China will maintain a 10% tariff on U.S. imports, continuing to export magnets and rare earth materials to the U.S.[8][30] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining fair competition and equal treatment for foreign enterprises operating in China[32]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points last week before retreating, leading to a slight increase in social media activity[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 95.47 billion CNY, an increase of 58.47 billion CNY from the previous value, marking a new high in nearly two months[2] Fund Trends - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards growth sectors, particularly in electronics and cyclical industries[2] - Among public fund heavyweights, 30% have outperformed since September 2018, with concentration in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computing sectors[2] Social Media Insights - Social media discussions about A-shares have seen a slight uptick, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin maintaining high engagement levels, while Weibo and Baidu remain relatively calm[5] - The demographic of Douyin users watching A-share content has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of middle-aged and older users[7] Retail Participation - The number of retail investors participating in financing and margin trading has increased, with a net inflow of financing funds of 8.04 billion CNY, up 0.85 billion CNY from the previous week[35] - The number of individual investors in financing and margin trading reached 745.8 thousand, reflecting a 0.14% increase from the previous value[35]

Income Distribution - In 2024, the national per capita disposable income is 41,314 yuan, with per capita wage income at 23,327 yuan, making the share of wage income in disposable income 56.5%[3] - By the first quarter of 2025, this share is projected to rise to 57.3%, indicating a historical high since 2013[14] Wage Growth Analysis - Urban residents' wage income growth in 2024 is 5.04%, aligning with GDP growth, while rural residents see a higher growth rate of 6.94%[22] - For the first quarter of 2025, rural wage growth is expected to be 6.71%, surpassing the GDP growth of 5.4%, whereas urban wage growth is slightly lower at 5.16%[22] Sector Comparison - In 2024, average annual wages for urban non-private sector employees are 124,110 yuan, while private sector employees earn an average of 69,476 yuan[27] - Wage growth for urban private sector employees is 1.7%, compared to 2.8% for non-private sector employees in 2024[28] Industry Wage Trends - The top three industries for wage levels in 2023 were mining, construction, and finance, while in 2024, they are agriculture, utilities, and construction[30] - The total wage amount for urban non-private units in 2024 is projected to be 20.53 trillion yuan, with stable proportions in government service sectors[34] Tax and Contribution Comparisons - Personal income tax growth from 2023 to 2024 is lower than wage income growth, with a tax growth of 7.1% in Q1 2025, exceeding wage growth of 5.9%[39] - Housing fund contributions are growing faster than wage income, with a reported increase of 4.67% in 2024 compared to a 4.04% growth in urban non-private wages[43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [64]. Core Insights - The SNEC exhibition showcased over 3,000 solar energy companies, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements amid a period of supply-demand imbalance and price fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry [12][1]. - Companies are emphasizing technological innovation to enhance conversion efficiency and component power, with a notable reduction in large-scale advertising compared to previous exhibitions [12][1]. - The demand for storage solutions is increasing, with companies integrating photovoltaic and storage technologies to offer advanced system solutions [13][2]. - The overall production of components is expected to decrease by approximately 10% month-on-month, with specific price adjustments observed across various materials in the supply chain [14][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: SNEC Focus on Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The SNEC PV+ exhibition took place from June 11-13, 2025, in Shanghai, covering an area of 380,000 square meters with over 3,000 participating companies, including more than 900 foreign enterprises [12][1]. - Companies are focusing on technological advancements, particularly in battery components, to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][1]. - Key companies to watch include Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy, which are leading in BC technology mass production expected to ramp up in the second half of the year [12][1]. Section 2: Market Demand and Price Adjustments - The overall component production is estimated at approximately 53 GW for June, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of about 10% [14][2]. - Silicon material prices have been adjusted downward due to decreased demand, with N-type silicon material prices ranging from 35,000 to 38,000 RMB per ton, averaging 36,700 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.13% [14][2]. - Prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have also shown slight declines, with specific price variations noted for different sizes of battery cells [14][2]. Section 3: Industry Performance Review - The overall industry index increased by 0.63% this week, while the electric power equipment industry index decreased by 0.46% [15][2]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 0.75%, with notable fluctuations in individual stock performances within the sector [19][2]. - The current PE (Price to Earnings) ratio for the electric power equipment industry stands at 24x, with the photovoltaic equipment sector at 17x, indicating varying levels of valuation across sub-sectors [25][29].

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]