证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20250526-20250601） 赛轮轮胎印尼及墨西哥工厂首胎下线；本周 推荐（维持） 盐酸、敌草隆、氯化钾价格涨幅居前 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,141.11 | 4.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,352.82 | 4.75 | 相对指数表现 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250526-20250530） 推荐（维持） 铁水产量持续下行，关注供给收缩节奏 行业观点：需求仍显韧性，后续关注淡季供需两端变化情况 事件一：截至 5 月 30 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3217 元/吨、3556 元/吨、3221 元/吨、3650 元/吨、3474 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-1.94%、-1.70%、-2.26%、-2.16%、-1.34%。本周五大品种产量 880.85 万吨，周环比上升 8.41 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 241.91 万吨，周环比 下降 1.69 万吨，高炉产能利用率 90.69%，周环比下降 0.63 个百分点，高炉开 工率83.87%，周环比上升 0.18个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 59.03%， 周环比下降 0.47 个百分点，电炉开工率 77.78%，周环比上升 0.6 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1365.60 万吨，周环比下降 32.94 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 28.02 万吨至 932.54 万吨；钢厂库存环比下降 4.92 万吨至 433. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [6][64]. Core Insights - The report indicates an overall decline in production for the photovoltaic industry in June, with price support expected to weaken. The production of polysilicon is projected to see a slight increase, while silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by approximately 4% [12][13]. - The demand for battery cells is weakening, leading to a further increase in the proportion of larger-sized battery cells. The report anticipates a 4% decrease in battery cell production in June [12][13]. - The component production is also expected to decline, with a forecasted 9% decrease in June due to the end of downstream rush installations [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Production and Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled material averaging 37,500 RMB/ton, down 2.85% month-on-month, and N-type granular silicon at 34,500 RMB/ton, down 4.17% [12]. - Silicon wafer prices remained stable, with an overall operating rate of about 53% for silicon wafer companies. A 4% decrease in silicon wafer production is expected in June [12]. - Battery cell prices have declined, with 182N and 210N battery cells facing profitability pressures, leading to a projected 4% decrease in production [12][13]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes a 1.94% decline in the comprehensive index this week, with the photovoltaic equipment sector down 2.25% [14][22]. - Among individual stocks, Changcheng Electric saw a significant increase of 39.22%, while BYD experienced a decline of 13.01% [17][19]. 3. Industry Valuation - As of May 30, the industry PE (TTM) for the photovoltaic sector is reported at 16x, with a valuation percentile of 9.4%, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [25][30][35]. - The report highlights that the overall market capitalization of the photovoltaic industry is approximately 807.85 billion RMB, with 36 listed companies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the reusable rocket technology and highlights the broad prospects for satellite applications [1] Core Insights - Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology have been achieved, marking significant advancements in China's commercial space industry [1][29] - The satellite communication market is opening up to consumer applications, with major telecom companies launching devices that support direct satellite connectivity [9][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and innovation in downstream applications within the commercial aerospace sector [46] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index increased by 1.66% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03% and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.40% [7][13] - Notable gains were observed in satellite navigation (+3.69%), commercial aerospace (+3.17%), and military information technology (+3.12%) [7][13] Market Performance (05.26-05.30) - The report notes a significant performance in individual stocks, with Zongheng Co. rising by 25.63% and Digital Government rising by 18.05% [18] - Conversely, companies like Bangyan Technology and Zhongke Star Map experienced declines of 16.09% and 10.26%, respectively [18] Valuation Analysis - The valuation of the low-altitude economy, aerospace equipment, and aviation equipment sectors is reported to be in the ranges of 96-98, 128-131, and 50-51 respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [26] Breakthroughs in Rocket Recovery Technology - The successful test flight of the Yuanhang-1 rocket by Arrow元科技 marks a significant milestone in the development of large-scale reusable rockets [29] - The rocket is designed for 20 reuses and aims to support various market needs, including space tourism and deep space exploration [34] Opening of Consumer-Level Satellite Communication Market - The establishment of 5G satellite standards led by China is expected to revolutionize satellite communication, allowing direct connections from mobile devices to satellites [9][40] - As of April 2025, 30 devices supporting satellite connectivity have been launched by major telecom brands, indicating a shift towards consumer applications [9][40] Recent Highlights - The successful launch of the Tianwen-2 probe and the establishment of the Satellite Application Innovation Institute by China Aerospace Technology Group are significant developments in the aerospace sector [41][44] - The report highlights the potential of the drone logistics market, predicting a market size of approximately 300 billion yuan by 2024 [8][20] Investment Recommendations and Beneficiary Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in satellite manufacturing and rocket launches, such as China Satellite and Shanghai Hanhua [46] - It also highlights beneficiaries in satellite operations and applications, including China Satcom and Huace Navigation [46]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20250526-20250601） OPEC+7 月维持增产幅度，本周油价下跌 风险提示：能源价格波动加大、海外地缘冲突加剧、下游需求不及预期 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,141.11 | 4.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,352.82 | 4.75 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.1% | -4.0% | 2.5% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the unmanned logistics vehicle sector, highlighting the commercialization phase and cost reduction opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The launch of the Jiushi E6 unmanned logistics vehicle at a price of 19,800 yuan marks a significant reduction below 20,000 yuan, stimulating market enthusiasm and introducing a new era of intelligent delivery [1][12]. - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry has transitioned from "technological feasibility" to "commercialization," with over 100 cities granted road rights for commercial applications [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the economic advantages of unmanned logistics vehicles, with significant cost reductions in delivery operations, potentially lowering per-package costs by 50% [3][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Unmanned Vehicles - Jiushi's E6 model is priced at 19,800 yuan, introducing a subscription service for fully autonomous driving at 1,800 yuan per month, significantly lowering user entry barriers [1][12]. - The industry is witnessing a surge in orders and production capabilities, with Jiushi and New Stone both reporting substantial order backlogs and delivery milestones [2][16]. Section 2: Cost Model and Economic Viability - The operational data from New Stone indicates that a single unmanned vehicle can deliver 2,000 packages daily, with a cost reduction of 2-3 jiao per package when utilizing multiple vehicles [3][19]. - A cost comparison shows that the monthly operational cost of the Jiushi E6 is estimated to be below 3,000 yuan, significantly lower than traditional delivery vehicles [19][20]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that unmanned logistics vehicles are well-suited for last-mile delivery within a 10 km radius, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for logistics companies [4][21]. - Continued recommendations for companies like SF Holding and attention to SF City, which is exploring collaborative delivery ecosystems with unmanned vehicles [4][21]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Air passenger volume from May 30 to June 1 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while domestic ticket prices decreased by 4.6% [22][23]. - The shipping sector experienced a significant increase in the SCFI index by 31%, indicating a robust demand for shipping services [39][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for sales recovery and growth in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry experienced a sales recovery in May, with expectations for strong terminal sales driven by increased marketing efforts from car manufacturers. The report forecasts a retail growth rate of 5.2% and a wholesale growth rate of 8.4% for the year, supported by stable economic expectations, policy initiatives, and new vehicle launches. Notably, the demand for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles, providing a solid foundation for the performance of both complete vehicles and parts manufacturers [2][3][4]. Data Tracking - In April, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. The retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% and a month-on-month decline of 14%. The inventory increased by 197,000 units, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [5][10]. - In May, new energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), Li Auto 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year), and Xpeng 33,525 units (up 230.4% year-on-year) [22][27]. - The average discount rate in the industry rose to 7.8% in late May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year [5][23]. Industry News - As of May 30, 2025, the retail sales of passenger vehicles from May 1 to 25 reached 1.358 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 8.23 million units, up 9% year-on-year [27]. - The China Automotive Dealers Association reported a decrease in the inventory warning index to 52.7%, indicating improved market conditions in the automotive circulation industry [27]. - The total import and export value of automotive goods in April 2025 was $23.09 billion, with exports amounting to $19.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [27].

行业研究 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250526-20250601） 推荐（维持） 宏大民爆迁址新疆乌鲁木齐 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 $$\frac{1}{4}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{F}\left(\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{F}\right)$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 相关研究报告 《新疆周报（20250421-20250427）：国家生态 环境部受理国能准东 20 亿方煤制气项目环评》 2025-04-28 《 化 工 行 业 新 材 料 周 报 （20250421- 20250427）：25 年年底数千台 Optimus 有望入驻 工厂；台积电第二代 GAA 工艺 14A 首次曝光》 2025-04-28 《能源周报（20250421-20250427）：准东煤制 天然气管道一标段正式开工》 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | -- ...

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0526 - 0601): Cross - Half - Year Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Allocation Opportunities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In June, pay attention to the roll - over pressure of certificates of deposit. Although the cross - half - year capital risk is limited, the supply - demand structure may weaken. Consider increasing allocation when the 1Y state - owned and joint - stock bank certificate of deposit pricing is above 1.7% [2][47] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Maturity Structure Lengthens - From May 26th to June 1st, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 66.95 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1.677 billion yuan (compared with 2.49 billion yuan last week). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 42% to 55%, and that of joint - stock banks remained at 14%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose from 28% to 59%, and the weighted issuance maturity lengthened to 8.88 months (previously 6.20 months). From June 2nd to June 8th, the maturity scale decreased to 66.495 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 1.222 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management is the Main Buyer in the Secondary Market, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Declines Slightly - In the secondary market, wealth management products were the main buyers, with a weekly net purchase of 80.935 billion yuan. The net purchase of wealth management outsourcing (other products) increased from 32.957 billion yuan to 85.483 billion yuan, and state - owned banks' net purchase increased from 9.739 billion yuan to 37.575 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased slightly from about 93% to 91% [2][14] Valuation: Primary and Secondary Pricing Continues to Fluctuate at a High Level - In primary pricing, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated at a high level overall. The 1M pricing rose slightly to 1.67%, 3M, 6M, and 9M products increased by 0 - 2bp, and the 1Y product decreased by 1bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks narrowed by 1bp, at the 11% historical quantile. The 1Y credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.72bp to 13.00bp, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.45bp to 10.00bp. In secondary yields, the 1M yield of AAA - rated certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the rest continued to fluctuate. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened, at the 14% historical quantile [2] Comparison: Cross - Half - Year Capital Risk is Limited, Focus on Roll - Over Situation - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds increased slightly. The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 9.77bp to 11.98bp, and that with R007:15DMA rose from 7.07bp to 8.27bp. The spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds widened slightly to 24.98bp, remaining at about the 5% quantile; the spread with China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 1bp to 17.50bp, and the quantile decreased to 13%. The spread between AAA short - and medium - term notes and certificates of deposit changed from an inverted 1.08bp to 1.77bp, and the quantile rose to around 7% [35]

证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 5 月行业销量复苏，全年销量展望乐观 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 5 月行业销量有所恢复，6 月车企加大年中冲刺营销力度，预计终端销售维持较好水平， 我们对全年销量依然乐观，预计全年零售增速 5.2%、批发增速 8.4%，后续随经济预期稳 定、政策发力、新车上市，销量水平有望维持在较好水平，尤其 20 万元以上高 ...