- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" as a proxy variable for tracking market sentiment heat. It is calculated by summing the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and multiplied by 10,000. The indicator's range is [0,10000][7] - A "Broad-based Index Heat Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of major broad-based indices. The strategy involves buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, or staying out of the market if the "Other" group has the highest rate. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 33.5% in 2025[12][15] - A "Concept Heat TOP and BOTTOM Portfolio" is developed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates each week. Stocks are chosen from these concepts based on their total heat ranking, with the top 10 forming the TOP portfolio and the bottom 10 forming the BOTTOM portfolio. The BOTTOM portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 37.6% in 2025[30][32] - The report provides heat change rates for major broad-based indices, industries, and concepts. For broad-based indices, the highest heat change rate (MA2) was observed in CSI 2000 (+2.76%), while the lowest was in CSI 500 (-5.29%). For industries, the highest heat change rate was in coal (+69.7%), and the lowest was in media (-22.2%). For concepts, the top 5 with the highest heat change rates were genetically modified organisms (+124.5%), grain concepts (+107.7%), cultivated diamonds (+101), China-Korea Free Trade Zone (+93.2%), and soybeans (+88.4)[8][26][56][57] - The valuation monitoring section highlights the historical valuation percentiles of major broad-based indices and industries. CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are at 86%, 98%, and 92% of their rolling 5-year historical percentiles, respectively. Among industries, those above the 80% historical percentile include power equipment, electronics, banking, light manufacturing, computing, defense, pharmaceuticals, coal, building materials, and retail. Industries below the 20% historical percentile include agriculture, transportation, non-bank finance, food and beverage, comprehensive, and steel[40][41][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the low-altitude economy industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - EHang Intelligent has launched the new long-range manned eVTOL model VT35, designed for mid-to-long-distance travel scenarios, promoting the development of the low-altitude economy [3][4]. - The VT35 has a maximum design range of approximately 200 kilometers and a top speed exceeding 200 kilometers per hour, with a standard price of 6.5 million RMB in the Chinese market [10][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in catalyzing the low-altitude economy, highlighting the need for top-level design and planning to further stimulate industry development [15][16]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index decreased by 5.5% this week but has increased by 15.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 14.7% [24][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy is identified as a representative industry of new productive forces, with significant government support and planning expected to enhance its development [15][17]. - The report outlines four major application scenarios for the low-altitude economy: tourism consumption, passenger transport, logistics, and production operations [18][19]. Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on key segments within the industry, including: 1. **Manufacturers**: EHang Intelligent for eVTOL, Wan Feng Ao Wei for general aviation aircraft, and Xirui for general aviation manufacturing [33]. 2. **Supply Chain**: Yingboer for electric drive systems and Zongshen Power for aviation engines [33]. 3. **Low-altitude Digitalization**: Companies like Lais Information and Sichuan Jiuzhou are highlighted for their roles in digital infrastructure [33]. 4. **Low-altitude Infrastructure**: Radar companies such as Guorui Technology and Sichuan Aerospace are noted for their contributions to safety systems [33]. 5. **Operations**: Companies like CITIC Heli and Xiangyuan Culture are mentioned for exploring commercial applications in low-altitude operations [33]. Market Performance - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index's performance is detailed, showing a weekly decline of 5.5% but an annual increase of 15.5%, indicating resilience compared to broader market indices [24][25]. - Individual stock performances are highlighted, with notable gainers and losers over the week and year, reflecting market volatility and investment opportunities [26][27]. Future Research Directions - The report indicates that from January 2024, a focused research initiative on the low-altitude economy will commence, covering 12 key companies and their potential for growth [34].

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, such as the "Volume Model," "Low Volatility Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart Algorithm Model," "Limit-Up-Limit-Down Model," "Calendar Effect Model," "Long-Term Momentum Model," and composite models like "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" [2][11][12][13][14] - The "Volume Model" is neutral in the short term, while the "Feature Volume Model" indicates bearish signals. The "Smart Algorithm Model" for CSI 500 also shows bearish signals, whereas the "Long-Term Momentum Model" is bullish for long-term market trends [11][13][14] - The "Composite Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" both indicate bearish signals for A-shares, suggesting a negative outlook for the market [14][68] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover Inverse Volatility Model" continues to show bearish signals, indicating a negative outlook for the Hang Seng Index [15][63] - Backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly decline of -2.06%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.37%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the double bottom portfolio is 28.91%, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 10.04%, achieving an excess return of 18.88% [41][46] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly decline of -5.45%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -2.02%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the cup-and-handle portfolio is 62.41%, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 10.04%, achieving an excess return of 52.38% [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hikvision, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][16]. Core Insights - Hikvision's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 65.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.319 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in profit growth in Q3 [2][6]. - The company has shown continuous improvement in gross margin, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 45.67%, up 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - Operating cash flow has significantly improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 13.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 426.06% [6]. - The company has been actively investing in AI technologies, launching hundreds of AI model products and integrating them into various industry applications [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.081 billion yuan, 103.571 billion yuan, and 113.276 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.8%, 8.9%, and 9.4% [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for the same years are 13.873 billion yuan, 15.374 billion yuan, and 17.129 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.8%, 10.8%, and 11.4% [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.51 yuan, 1.68 yuan, and 1.87 yuan, respectively [2][7]. - **Valuation**: The target price is set at 42 yuan, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026 [3][6]. Market Position - Hikvision is recognized as a global leader in the security industry and a core player in smart IoT [6]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 302.991 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 299.075 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend plan, enhancing shareholder returns [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 90 yuan, compared to the current price of 68.30 yuan [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Yijie Medical for 335 million yuan, with 301 million yuan in shares and 34 million yuan in cash. The acquisition is progressing steadily [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected total revenue of 278 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 635 million yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.9% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 79 million yuan in 2024 to 221 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 40.0% [2][7]. - The acquisition of Yijie Medical is anticipated to enhance the company's integrated solutions in neurosurgery and interventional fields, leveraging channel resources and expanding its technology applications [6][7]. - The controlling shareholder's stake is expected to increase from 32.97% to 37.88% post-acquisition, enhancing control over the company [6][7]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 278 million, 372 million, 485 million, and 635 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 33.8%, 30.3%, and 30.9% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 79 million, 113 million, 158 million, and 221 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 92.9%, 43.5%, 39.3%, and 40.0% [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.18 yuan in 2024 to 3.31 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 58 to 21 [2][7].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 一篇说清楚：Q4 政府债券供给 ❖ 1、Q4 国债发行计划有何看点？ （1）财政部 9 月 30 日 Q4 计划相较年初计划有所变化。一是，10 月份个别 期限月内发行日期有所调整，二是 30y 超长期特别国债取消续发，转为 50y、 20y 各续发一只债券。 （2）国债最新计划公布后，抛盘压力下 25 特 6 与 25 特 2 利差走扩。30y 品 种取消发行后，25 特 6 合计发行规模止步于 2470 亿元，较当前 30y 国债活跃 券 25 特 2 的规模明显偏小，市场预计 25 特 6 将难以成为活跃券，抛盘压力下 25 特 6 与 25 特 2 利差由 9 月 29 日的 9.5BP 上行至 13.20BP。 ❖ 2、10 月国债缩量：或指向年内增发国债概率不大 （1）国债发行进度：普通国债，预计剩余 1.06 万亿额度待发；特别国债，注 资特别国债、超长期特别国债均已完成发行。 （2）10 月关键期限附息国债单只规模缩量至 1306 亿元，或指向年内进一步 增发概率不大。增发国债需要经过人大常委会审批，且结果落地之前国债发行 通常出现赶进度现象，例 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the IVD industry, highlighting the acceleration of domestic substitution and the potential for overseas expansion as key growth drivers [13][16]. Core Insights - The IVD market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in the registration of domestic products, indicating a strong trend towards domestic substitution [15][28]. - The global IVD market is projected to grow from $106.3 billion in 2023 to $128.2 billion by 2028, while China's IVD market is expected to grow from $5.9 billion to $8.0 billion in the same period, reflecting a higher growth rate compared to the global market [16][17]. - Chinese IVD companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with strategies evolving from low-cost products to high-end offerings and local operational models [25][20]. Market Overview - The report notes that the IVD product registration in China has surged from 335 in 2021 to 662 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6%, and domestic products accounting for a growing share of the market [15][14]. - The domestic IVD market's substitution rate is accelerating, with significant representation from companies like Mindray and Wondfo in various diagnostic segments [15][13]. Regional Market Dynamics - The North American market represents the largest share of the global IVD market at 44.6%, followed by Europe at 31.4%, indicating substantial opportunities for Chinese companies to expand their presence [19][20]. - Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific are seen as critical entry points for Chinese IVD companies, with lower registration barriers and growing healthcare needs [20][22]. Company Strategies - Companies like Mindray and New Industries are actively pursuing overseas expansion through acquisitions and establishing local subsidiaries to enhance their market presence and operational capabilities [30][32]. - The report highlights the importance of localizing operations and adapting to regional market conditions as key strategies for successful international expansion [25][20]. Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Chinese IVD companies reported higher growth rates in overseas revenues compared to domestic revenues, indicating a shift in focus towards international markets [28][27]. - Specific companies such as Mingde Biological and Nuo Wei Zhan have shown remarkable overseas revenue growth, with increases of 185.82% and 74.21% respectively [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Tongda system's single ticket revenue has continued to increase month-on-month, with an increase of over 0.1 yuan compared to July, suggesting potential performance elasticity in the future [2]. - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the "anti-involution" theme, particularly focusing on companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have shown strong performance indicators [7][9]. - The report notes that the express delivery companies have experienced varying growth rates in business volume and revenue, with SF Express leading in business volume growth at 31.8% year-on-year for September [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The express delivery industry consists of 5 listed companies with a total market value of 341.66 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 328.83 billion yuan [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been -5.8%, 5.2%, and 2.9% respectively, while the relative performance has been -5.0%, -14.5%, and -16.3% [5]. Company Performance - In September, the business volume year-on-year growth rates were as follows: SF Express (31.8%), YTO Express (13.6%), Shentong Express (9.5%), and Yunda Express (3.6%) [7][9]. - Revenue growth rates for September were led by Shentong and YTO, both at 14.9%, followed by SF Express at 14.2% and Yunda at 4.1% [9]. - The single ticket revenue for September showed an increase for the Tongda system, with Shentong at 2.12 yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year), Yunda at 2.02 yuan (up 0.5%), and YTO at 2.21 yuan (up 1.1%) [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce express delivery opportunities, particularly highlighting YTO and Shentong as key investment targets due to their strong performance indicators and potential for revenue and earnings elasticity [7]. - It also suggests continued investment in SF Express, noting its leading business volume growth and potential for sustainable free cash flow optimization [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of 24.4 HKD [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a net profit growth of 40%-60% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025, with preliminary estimates indicating a net profit range of 375-428 billion CNY [1][7]. - The growth is attributed to significant increases in underwriting profits and total investment returns [7]. - The report highlights an optimized asset allocation structure that enhances the positive effects of rising equity markets [7]. - The combined ratio (COR) is projected to improve significantly, benefiting from reduced natural disasters and effective cost control measures [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the insurance service performance is projected at 14,380 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 24.6%. However, a substantial recovery is expected in 2025 with a growth rate of 96.1% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 32,173 million CNY, with a growth of 30.9%, and is expected to reach 46,063 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 43.2% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.45 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.07 CNY in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total market capitalization of 4,177 billion HKD and a circulating market value of 1,296 billion HKD [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 65.07%, indicating a solid financial structure [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the development of new energy vehicle insurance as a key growth area for underwriting profitability in the long term [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][17]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing short-term operational pressures, but the long-term wind power sector presents multiple catalysts for growth. The report emphasizes the importance of future investment opportunities for the company [1][6]. - The report highlights a significant decline in total power generation for Q3 2025, with a total of 25.86 billion kWh, down 7.81% year-on-year. However, offshore wind generation showed a notable increase of 27.03% [6]. - The report outlines that the wind power asset yield is expected to stabilize with the implementation of policy 136, and subsidy issues that have troubled the industry are anticipated to gradually resolve, improving cash flow for companies [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 5,027 million, with a slight decline expected in 2025 to 5,003 million, followed by an increase to 5,608 million in 2026 and 5,939 million in 2027. The year-on-year growth rates are projected at -1.7%, -0.5%, 12.1%, and 5.9% respectively [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,330 million in 2024, decreasing to 1,211 million in 2025, before rising to 1,538 million in 2026 and 1,626 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -12.0%, -9.0%, 27.0%, and 5.7% [2][7]. - The report provides a target price of 4.3 yuan for 2026, which represents a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price of 3.14 yuan [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the clear goals for new energy development set by the government, aiming for non-fossil energy consumption to account for over 30% of total energy consumption by 2035, with wind and solar power capacity expected to increase significantly [6]. - Offshore wind power is identified as a potential growth opportunity, with government policies expected to drive development in this area. The report notes that offshore wind resources are primarily located in coastal provinces with high electricity demand, suggesting a favorable growth environment [6].