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6月美联储议息会议点评2025年第4期:潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-19 02:13
多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要: —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变,对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期,上调通胀预期,其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%,核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示,2025 年降息次数或仍为两次,2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕,同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策,或有利于美元资产,尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现,除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示: 原油市场爆发价格战,新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 电话:010-66500825 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 ...
陆家嘴论坛后,宽松交易或延续
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-18 14:46
证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后,宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午,第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态,其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进,故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容,2019-2020 年:会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年:议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等,会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年:议题聚焦货币政策框架改革, 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年:本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是,央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题,关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看,由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...
华创农业5月白羽肉禽月报:毛鸡、鸡苗价格保持平稳,养殖端利润有所恢复-20250618
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-18 14:46
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][48]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of white feather broilers is sufficient, while the demand side remains weak, impacting chicken product prices and industry profitability. The expectation is for a recovery in chicken consumption in 2025, driven by domestic demand expansion [6][42]. - The report highlights a cautious replenishment in the breeding sector, with a slight increase in the price of broiler chickens and stable prices for chicks. The average price of white feather chicks is 2.88 yuan per chick, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 8% [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In May, the price of broiler chickens slightly increased, while chick prices remained stable. The overall survival rate in breeding is low, leading to a contraction in effective market supply. Terminal consumption continues to be weak, keeping prices low [8][11]. - The average price of white feather broilers in May was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4% year-on-year and 0.074% month-on-month [11]. Production Capacity - As of May 2025, the average stock of parent stock was 23.83 million sets, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month. The average stock of backup parent stock was 15 million sets, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.5% month-on-month [29][36]. - The report notes that the average stock of grandparent stock was 1.48 million sets, up 20.9% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month [28][31]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of the chick sector has improved, while the losses in broiler farming have significantly reduced. In May, the loss in broiler farming was 0.07 yuan per chicken, a substantial reduction compared to previous periods [36][37]. - The profitability of hatcheries was reported at 0.26 yuan per chick, showing a significant increase month-on-month [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in chicken consumption and improvements in profitability [42].
大秩序竞合录系列1:军工战略资产崛起
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-18 11:13
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The significant increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, driven by central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and potential pressures on the dollar system [3][7] - Global defense spending continues to rise amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, with China's defense expenditure projected to reach 1.7% of GDP by 2024, indicating substantial growth potential compared to major military powers like Russia (7.1%) and the US (3.4%) [3][10][15] - China's military trade is rapidly growing, with weapon exports reaching a historical high in 2023, accounting for 10.0% of global exports [3][20] - The military industry is experiencing capacity expansion as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, with significant catalysts expected from the "15th Five-Year Plan" and related commemorative activities [3][27] - The defense industry has shown notable activity due to recent conflicts, with a cumulative return of 5.9% since May 25, outperforming the broader market by 4.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a complex scenario involving central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and pressures on the dollar system, indicating a strong expectation of global financial and political order restructuring [7] Global Defense Spending - Global defense spending is projected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2024, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, with regional spending becoming more balanced as Asia's share rises from 10.1% in 1992 to 22.3% in 2024 [10][15] China's Defense Expenditure - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase from the previous year, with a significant gap compared to other major military nations, suggesting room for growth [15][19] Military Trade Growth - China's military exports are shifting towards high-tech, high-value products, with a notable increase in international interest, as evidenced by the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow attracting significant attention [20][25] Industry Capacity and Planning - The military industry is expected to continue expanding capacity, with ongoing projects reaching 32.38 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, driven by the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives [27][28] Market Activity and Valuation - The defense industry is currently experiencing high trading activity, with a trading heat index at the 76.2 percentile of the past decade, and a PE_TTM of 76.1, placing it at the 71.4 percentile historically [29][32] - The forecast for net profit growth in 2025 is projected at 119.6%, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [36] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, active equity funds have a 3.2% market value allocation in the defense industry, reflecting a moderate level of investment interest [39] Recommended Stocks - The report includes a stock pool recommendation focusing on companies within the defense industry, highlighting those with high PE ratios and significant projected profit growth [42]
科创金融组合拳:陆家嘴论坛点评
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-18 11:02
证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略快评】 科创金融组合拳 ——陆家嘴论坛点评 科技创新和产业创新融合发展,金融服务加力提速,政策重心或将进一步向新 质生产力倾斜。吴清指出当前金融服务科技创新的短板弱项主要体现在"三个 不完善":一是适应创新规律的资本形成机制不完善。二是满足科技企业全生 命周期金融需求的产品服务体系不完善。三是对创新的激励约束机制不完善。 基于以上"三个不完善",证监会从股权、债权、上市公司质量三个视角推动 金融服务创新。这也是针对近期党政要会加强科技创新部署的落地,4/30 习总 书记强调"十五五"时期,必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战 略位置。5/7 国新办新闻发布会上,央行、金融监管总局、证监会分别从货币、 资本市场等角度强调了金融对科技创新的支持。以新质生产力为代表的科技创 新,尤其是人工智能等战略新兴产业,或将成为下一轮政策支持的重点方向。 股权:深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施,重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套 标准上市,培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。吴清表示要推出科创板进一步深化 改革的"1+6"政策措施。"1"即在科创板设置科创成长层,重启未盈利企业 适用科创板第五套标准上 ...
2025Q1企业年金数据点评:首度披露三年累计收益率(7.46%),企业年金提速扩容
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-18 01:58
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [22]. Core Insights - As of Q1 2025, the accumulated fund scale of enterprise annuities reached 3.73 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% from the end of 2024, although the growth rate has decreased by 1.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The newly disclosed three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities stands at 7.46%, primarily driven by long-term investment behavior influenced by relevant policy guidance [4][10]. - The number of enterprises establishing annuities has increased to 168,200, a rise of 5.62% from the end of 2024, with the number of participating employees growing by 1.51% to 32.91 million [2][10]. Summary by Sections Fund Scale and Growth - The enterprise annuity fund scale reached 3.73 trillion as of Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% [2]. - The number of enterprises with annuities increased to 168,200, marking a 5.62% rise from the previous year [2]. Cumulative Returns - The three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities is 7.46%, with single plans showing a return of 7.42% and collective plans at 7.82% [5][10]. - Fixed income portfolios yielded a return of 10.54%, outperforming the average by 3.08 percentage points, while equity-inclusive portfolios returned 7.06%, slightly below the average [5]. Market Outlook - The enterprise annuity sector is expected to continue its growth trend, benefiting from a structural market favoring small-cap growth and technology stocks in Q1 2025 [10]. - The long-term assessment of returns is anticipated to drive investment behaviors towards a balanced approach between absolute and relative returns, leading to a "steady progress" investment style [10].
人形机器人行业周报(20250609-20250615):全球首个人形机器人智能化分级标准正式发布,武汉设立10亿人形机器人专项基金-20250617
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-17 14:53
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The world's first intelligent grading standard for humanoid robots has been officially released, which is expected to promote the large-scale application of humanoid robots in various sectors such as petrochemical inspection and emergency rescue [4]. - Wuhan has established a special fund of 1 billion yuan to support the humanoid robot industry, aiming to break through innovation risk bottlenecks and enhance the industry's development [4]. - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with new technologies being developed and production processes accelerating [4]. Industry Data - The humanoid robot industry consists of 302 listed companies, with a total market value of 48,908.77 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 42,633.07 billion yuan [1]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has increased by 9.8%, while the relative performance has shown a slight increase of 0.2% [2]. Related Developments - The second-generation humanoid robot Codroid 02 was unveiled, showcasing advanced capabilities for industrial tasks and online learning [4]. - Ningbo has introduced policies to promote the humanoid robot industry, including financial support for innovation centers and insurance subsidies for enterprises [4]. - Investment suggestions include companies involved in various components of humanoid robots, such as actuators, sensors, and motors, indicating a broad interest in the sector [4].
美国经济的前瞻指标们
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-17 12:42
宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国经济的前瞻指标们 核心结论:近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛,越来越多的硬 数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件 五个维度的前瞻指标拆分,总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景:经济呈下行趋 势,但爆发风险的概率不大,结构来看:①就业市场呈结构性弱化,供需关系 显著降温;②当前处于补库存周期,未来大规模补库概率不大;③投资方面企 业投资或继续下行,地产投资难有起色;④居民消费能力减弱,但爆发风险的 概率小;⑤金融条件:处于宽松状态。 1、美国就业市场:呈结构性弱化,供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状:薪资偏强,但就业呈现结构性弱化。根据亚特兰大联储对就业 数据的拆分,将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看,尽管薪资 增长依然较快(衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75%分位数水平), 但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化,例如就业市场信心指标、 雇主行为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50%分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来评估当前的就业市场现状,可以看到劳动力市场供需 关系显著降温,工作变得不那么 ...
2024全球车企成本分拆:国内车企盈利能力提升,追赶海外车企高盈利
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-17 10:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the domestic automotive industry, indicating an improvement in profitability and a pursuit to catch up with overseas automakers [2]. Core Insights - Overseas automakers have a higher average adjusted net profit margin than domestic independent brands by approximately 5 percentage points (PP) in 2024. The trend shows that while overseas automakers experienced a decline in 2023, domestic automakers improved, reflecting similar trends in gross margins [3][21]. - The report highlights that overseas automakers have higher gross margins than domestic independent brands by about 7PP in 2024, with the gap narrowing over recent years [19][21]. - The analysis indicates that domestic automakers are benefiting from the scale-up of new energy vehicle sales, leading to improvements in both gross and net profit margins [10][21]. Summary by Sections 1) Profitability - In 2024, overseas ordinary vehicles are projected to sell 4.79 million units, domestic independent brands 1.7 million units, and overseas luxury vehicles 1.42 million units, showcasing the larger sales volume of overseas automakers [18]. - The report notes that the average adjusted gross margin for overseas luxury vehicles is 21%, overseas ordinary vehicles 20%, and domestic independent brands 13%, with overseas automakers maintaining a significant margin advantage [21][26]. 2) Cost Structure: Input Perspective - The total cost structure for automakers is approximately 100% = COGS 86% + sales expenses 6% + management expenses 3% + R&D expenses 5% + financial expenses 0% [12]. - The report indicates that overseas automakers have higher management and sales expense ratios, primarily due to significantly higher labor costs [4][12]. 3) Cost Structure: Transformation Perspective - The report emphasizes that domestic automakers have increased their investment in sales and R&D, while overseas automakers have seen a decrease in these ratios due to rising material costs [12][22]. - The analysis suggests that despite the current profitability and product structure advantages of overseas automakers, domestic brands are enhancing their competitiveness through electric and intelligent transformations [11][12]. 4) Summary and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that domestic automakers have substantial growth potential in terms of sales, market share, average selling price (ASP), and profitability, driven by advancements in electric and intelligent vehicle technologies [10][11]. - Recommended stocks include BYD, Geely, Li Auto, and JAC Motors, with a focus on structural opportunities in the short term [10].
多行业联合人工智能6月报:AI与康波-20250617
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-17 05:45
证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 AI 与康波——多行业联合人工智能 6 月报 策略研究 策略专题 2025 年 06 月 17 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:姚佩 邮箱:yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360522120004 证券分析师:耿琛 电话:0755-82755859 邮箱:gengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360517100004 证券分析师:岳阳 邮箱:yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360521120002 证券分析师:吴鸣远 邮箱:wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523040001 证券分析师:刘欣 电话:010-63214660 邮箱:liuxin3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360521010001 证券分析师:欧子兴 邮箱:ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523080007 证券分析师:黄麟 邮箱:huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360522080001 证券分析师:张程航 电话:021-20572543 邮箱:zhangchenghang@ ...