策 略 研 究 计算机、有色多主题出现形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 计算机、有色多主题出现形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的 主题指数数量分别有 0、12、8、0 只。其中，12 只突破形态的主题指数中， 行业多为计算机（6 只），8 只主升形态的主题指数中主要是有色行业（5 只）。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度继续回落，对应龙头股收盘价低 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回落至 53%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 的幅度为 ...

行 业 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 06 月 15 日 研 究 煤炭 煤价企稳去库持续，5 月进口煤同比-17.7% 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 609 元/吨， 周环比持平，内蒙古产地价持平、山西、陕西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 6 月 8 日晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 80.7%，周环比-0.8pct。本周电厂 日耗微涨，电厂库存小跌，动力煤库存指数小跌，秦港库存大跌。非 电方面，甲醇开工率微跌、尿素开工率小跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水 平，截至 6 月 12日，甲醇开工率为 88.0%，周环比-0.1pct，年同比+4.8pct； 截至 6 月 11 日，尿素开工率为 87.8%，周环比-1.6pct，年同比+4.7pct。 焦煤 截至 6 月 13 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1230 元/吨，周环比-40 元/ 吨，山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。铁水产量微跌，样本钢厂煤焦 库存微涨。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至 6 月 13 日，山 西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1230 元/吨，周环比持平，螺纹钢现货价格 307 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 06 月 13 日 中东冲突升级、美再加征关税，美联储还能降息吗？ ——宏观周报（第 8 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 以色列向主要产油国、OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动空袭，中东地区 冲突局势再度升级，原油价格大幅飙升。当地时间 6 月 12 日凌晨，以色列 对 OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动袭击，受此影响，原油现货价格大幅飙升， 6 月 13 日盘内布伦特原油和 WTI 原油价格一度分别上冲至最高 78.5 美元/ 桶、74.63 美元/桶，日内最高涨幅分别高达 12.0%和 13.2%。此前国际原油 价格受 OPEC+增产计划影响而持续低位运行的局面或将有所逆转。 期 报 告 1970s-1980s 两次石油危机的背景均为中东地区冲突局势升级造成的 原油供给锐减，美联储放任通胀和坚定实施定量紧缩的两种截然不同决策 模式和相应收效或已为鲍威尔指明方向。1973 年 10 月以色列发动第四次 中东战争，OPEC 决定联合实施较为严格的石油出口禁运，第一次石油危 机爆发。本轮油价飙升首先传导至美国的工业品出厂价格，并逐步向 CPI 和核心 CPI 传导，至 1974 年 11 月 ...

宏 观 研 究 降息当月为何贷款偏少？ 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 贷款低基数下再度大幅少增，降息稳地产预期效果尚需观察，严控隐 债对应企业中长贷显著少增。5 月新增贷款 6200 亿，低基数下再度同比再 度大幅少增 3300 亿，呈现以下结构性特征：1）5 月降息对居民中长贷形 成小幅拉动，当月新增 746 亿，同比小幅多增 232 亿；但居民短贷再度净 减少 208 亿，同比多减 451 亿，综合来看，5 月居民户贷款同比少增 217 亿，当前房地产市场仍处于持续探底过程中，降息稳定预期效果尚需持续 观察。2）5 月与基建投资关联度较高的企业中长贷新增 3300 亿，低基数 下同比少增的幅度扩大至 1700 亿，年初至今延续降温趋势，凸显存量隐债 稳定置换的过程中，严控新增隐债的要求仍可能持续压制传统基建投融资 增速。3）5 月短期贷款、票据融资两项合计同比少增 546 亿，与 4 月降温 幅度接近，显示关税进入拉锯阶段，超预期冲击导致的企业短期融资行为 趋于缓和。5 月贷款余额同比小幅回落 0.1 个百分点至 7.1%。 政府债务持续扩张，低利率提升企业债券融资活跃度，共同推动社融 再度同比多增。5 月 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 06 月 12 日 美国核心 CPI 会连续走低吗？ 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 基数走弱、关税冲击的双重背景下，美国 5 月核心 CPI 反而连续第三 个月持平，主要拖累为与能源价格关联度较高的耐用品分项以及房租涨幅 降温，市场对美联储年内降息预期小幅升温带动美元指数短时回落。据当 地时间 6 月 11 日公布的最新数据，美国 5 月 CPI（经季节调整，下同）、 核心 CPI 同比分别小幅上行 0.1 个百分点至 2.4%、持平于 2.8%，当月环比 涨幅分别为 0.08%和 0.13%。美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议召开在即，在基数逐 步走低、高额关税冲击的双重背景下，核心 CPI 非但没有大幅反弹反而连 续三个月持平，加之特朗普的低利率主张，令市场对美联储年内的降息预 期再度升温，美元指数和美债收益率当即大幅下行。但从结构来看，拖累 核心 CPI 涨幅的核心耐用消费品分项或主要受能源价格持续走弱的渗透性 影响，非耐用品与核心服务价格稳定增长，在特朗普"大而美法案"与原 油价格回升的共同支撑下，未来核心通胀展现高位黏性的概率仍然不低。 证 券 核心 CPI 连续三 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has officially launched hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote innovative management models and explore diversified development paths for the hydrogen industry, aiming for a comprehensive development of the hydrogen "production, storage, transportation, and utilization" chain [3][4] - The pilot directions cover four major areas: production, storage and transportation, application, and common support, with specific requirements for each area to ensure scalability and efficiency [3] - The hydrogen energy sector is driven by policy, with 2025 being a crucial year for the mid-to-long-term development plan, indicating a potential restart of industry progress after a policy gap [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The pilot projects will focus on large-scale hydrogen production, advanced flexible off-grid hydrogen production, and clean low-carbon hydrogen comprehensive development [3] - Storage and transportation requirements include large-scale, long-distance delivery with specific capacities for liquefaction and storage [3] - Applications will involve renewable energy hydrogen production, fuel cell projects, and hydrogen storage projects with defined capacity thresholds [3] Investment Recommendations - For green hydrogen, it is recommended to focus on companies with central enterprise collaborations and electrolyzer orders such as Shenghui Technology, Huadian Heavy Industry, Shuangliang Energy Saving, and Huaguang Huaneng, as well as those with practical C-end applications like Yong'an Hang [5] - For fuel cells, attention should be given to companies with system and core component layouts such as Yihuatong, Xiongtao Co., and Xue Ren Co., along with key equipment for hydrogen storage and transportation [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company due to the volatility of the stock price following its IPO [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Insta360, is a global leader in the smart imaging device market, particularly in the panoramic camera segment, holding a 67% market share in 2023 [1][11]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66% from 2017 to 2024, reaching revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024 [1][73]. - The company is expected to benefit from high demand in the panoramic camera segment, with projected revenues of 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, 12.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 17.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 52%, 45%, and 42% respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Insta360 was established in 2015 and focuses on the research, production, and sales of smart imaging devices, contributing approximately 87% of its revenue from consumer-grade products in 2024 [1][11]. - The company's main products include panoramic action cameras (ONE X series, ONE R series) and non-panoramic action cameras (Ace series, GO series) [1][11]. 2. Market Position - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of Western and Japanese brands in the action camera market, achieving the second-largest market share globally [1][11]. - The company's panoramic action cameras generated approximately 3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for about 54% of its main business [1][11]. 3. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit is projected to grow from 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.6 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 21%, 50%, and 43% respectively [2][3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 17.8% [1][73]. 4. Product Development and Innovation - The company emphasizes continuous product iteration and upgrades, focusing on both hardware and software improvements [1][66]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies in panoramic image capture, stabilization, AI image processing, and modular waterproof camera design, holding around 900 patents as of December 2024 [41][57]. 5. Competitive Analysis - Insta360's products are noted for their strong performance in terms of price, resolution, battery life, and smoothness compared to competitors [53][56]. - The company’s flagship products, such as the ONE X series, have advanced specifications, including video capabilities of up to 8K at 30fps [53][56]. 6. Future Prospects - The company is actively working on new projects, including cloud-based video management and editing technologies, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [72][73].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for AI applications, which reflects their commercialization capability and sustainable growth potential [3][4]. - High growth in ARR is associated with better company valuations, as it indicates strong revenue generation and user retention [4]. - The report highlights significant ARR growth among leading AI companies, showcasing their market performance and potential for future investment [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition of ARR - ARR stands for Annual Recurring Revenue, calculated as the monthly revenue multiplied by 12, representing the annual income of AI application companies [3]. 2. Importance of ARR in the Overseas AI Market - Frequent updates to ARR suggest strong recent commercialization performance, with subscription models and long-term contracts being common revenue strategies [4]. - Companies are increasingly using promotional strategies to enhance their ARR, which can lead to higher valuation multiples [4]. 3. Current ARR Levels of Leading AI Companies - OpenAI's ARR is projected to reach $10 billion by June 2025, doubling from $5.5 billion in December 2024 [5]. - Anthropic's ARR is expected to grow to $3 billion by May 2025, tripling from $1 billion in December 2024 [5]. - Cursor's ARR is anticipated to increase by 60% to $500 million by June 2025 [6]. - Databricks is expected to achieve an ARR of $3 billion by December 2024, a 60% increase from $1.9 billion at the end of 2023 [6]. - Perplexity's ARR is projected to reach $120 million by May 2025, a twentyfold increase from $5 million in January 2023 [6]. - Runway's ARR is expected to reach approximately $84 million by December 2024, tripling from $28 million in June 2024 [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook on AI companies with sustainable revenue and frequent ARR disclosures [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][13] Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote innovative management models and explore diversified development paths for the hydrogen industry, supporting the entire hydrogen value chain from production to storage, transportation, and utilization [2][3] - The pilot projects will focus on scaling up hydrogen production, with specific directions including large-scale hydrogen production, integrated and flexible off-grid hydrogen production, and comprehensive development of clean low-carbon hydrogen [3] - The report anticipates a 15.6% year-on-year decrease in hydrogen production prices, reaching 28 RMB/kg by the end of 2024, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of hydrogen production projects and enhance the integration of hydrogen with downstream applications [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The pilot projects will include both project trials and regional trials, aiming to promote advanced hydrogen technologies and establish cross-departmental collaboration mechanisms [3] - In hydrogen storage and transportation, various technologies such as pipelines, liquid hydrogen tanks, and high-pressure gas storage will be tested to improve efficiency and reduce costs, as storage and transportation account for 30%-40% of total hydrogen costs [4] - The report highlights the importance of expanding downstream applications, including green alternatives in refining and coal-to-oil processes, and the integration of hydrogen in energy storage and power generation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the hydrogen energy pilot projects will enhance applications in the chemical, energy, and transportation sectors, gradually achieving economic viability while promoting green carbon reduction [5] - Recommended companies include Huaguang Huaneng, with a suggestion to pay attention to GCL-Poly Energy, Fuzhijie Environmental Protection, and China Tianying [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of cultural tourism and IP as a new consumption logic, particularly during the summer peak season, and highlights the "Su Chao" theme's impact on the Jiangsu region [2][22] - The report suggests that the demand for trendy toys is resilient due to supportive consumption policies and a shift in consumer psychology, with a notable performance from leading brands like Pop Mart [23] - The jewelry sector is expected to maintain stable consumption levels due to rising gold prices, with a recommendation to focus on brands with high terminal store efficiency and expansion potential [4][70] - The personal care industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by product differentiation and emotional value, with a focus on brands that excel in innovation and channel operations [41] - The medical beauty sector is preparing for a new product launch cycle in Q3, with significant developments in injectable products expected to drive demand [5][36] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report tracks duty-free shopping data, noting a decrease in Hainan's duty-free shopping decline, and suggests focusing on city duty-free store openings and inbound tourism consumption [13][14] - Scenic area data indicates a slight increase in travel during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a recommendation to focus on key tourist regions during the summer peak [15][22] 2. Trendy Toys - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of the trendy toy sector, driven by emotional consumption and a shift towards product-driven strategies [23] 3. Hotels - Hotel performance data shows a significant increase in RevPAR, ADR, and OCC during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a focus on the growth of supply in lower-tier markets [24][25] 4. Education - The report notes a slight decrease in the number of high school graduates, indicating sustained competition in the education sector, and recommends focusing on vocational training and personalized education [31][34] 5. Medical Beauty and Cosmetics - The medical beauty sector is expected to see strong performance due to new product launches, while the cosmetics sector is benefiting from changing consumer habits and product innovation [35][40] 6. Jewelry - The jewelry sector is experiencing a rebound in sales due to high gold prices, with recommendations to focus on brands with strong store performance and expansion capabilities [65][70] 7. Personal Care - The personal care industry is undergoing innovation and emotional branding, with a focus on brands that can leverage social media and product differentiation [41][42] 8. Human Resources - The employment situation remains stable, with a slight decrease in urban unemployment rates, and the report suggests focusing on flexible employment leaders [46][48] 9. Sports and Events - The report highlights the rising popularity of the "Su Chao" theme, suggesting it as a driver for tourism and sports-related consumption in Jiangsu [53] 10. Dining - The dining sector shows signs of recovery, with an increase in consumer spending during the Dragon Boat Festival, and a positive outlook for the tea beverage industry [54][61]