行 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 高铁突破五万公里，驰骋领跑新时代 投资要点： 里程跃新峰，技术树标杆 行 业 定 期 报 告 2025 年 12 月 26 日西延高铁开通，中国高铁营业里程正式突破 5 万公里，占全球总量 70%以上，稳居世界第一且远超其他国家总和。 从引进消化吸收到自主创新，中国高铁攻克高寒、跨海等工程难题， 复兴号形成 160-350 公里时速系列化产品，CR450 攻坚更高时速，"八 纵八横"网络覆盖 97%城区人口 50 万以上城市，铸就全球高铁技术与 路网双重领先优势。 惠民强发展，出海显担当 高铁让"跨省通勤""快旅慢游"成为常态，2025 年前 4 个月旅 客发送量达 14.6 亿人次，同时助力区域协调、乡村振兴与绿色出行。 作为"国家名片"，雅万高铁、匈塞铁路等项目输出中国技术标准， 促进国际合作与民心相通，既改写国内出行格局，也为全球高铁发展 注入中国力量。 营业里程持续增长，20 万公里目标创造广阔市场空间 2022 年国务院印发《"十四五"现代综合交通运输体系发展规划》， 明确提出到 2025 年，铁路营业里程达到 16.5 万公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [9][18]. Core Insights - Hangzhou Yundongchu Technology Co., Ltd. has officially initiated its IPO guidance, with CITIC Securities as the advisory institution, and has a clear shareholding structure [3]. - The company, founded in 2017, focuses on the research, production, and sales of quadruped robots, humanoid robots, and core components, having launched multiple product series [5]. - As of December 2025, the company has completed nine rounds of financing, with the latest C round exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating strong interest from various institutional investors [5]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, and sales expected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yundongchu Technology is led by a professor from Zhejiang University and is part of the "Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" [5]. - The company has undergone a share reform and changed its corporate type, with the controlling shareholder holding 32.60% of the shares [3]. Market Potential - The development of sufficiently intelligent humanoid robots is seen as a significant technological direction that could benefit humanity by taking over repetitive physical labor [6]. - NVIDIA's CEO has stated that the era of robots has arrived, and embodied intelligence is the next wave of artificial intelligence [6]. Financing and Growth - The company has achieved substantial financing results, with the latest round attracting strategic investments from institutions like CMB International and Huaxia Fund [5]. - The increasing heat in the robotics sector is highlighted by the concurrent IPO guidance of another company in the same field [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The successful completion of the non-nuclear commissioning test for the "Linglong One" modular small reactor marks a significant milestone in the nuclear power sector, validating the core system functions and laying a solid foundation for future nuclear operations [4]. - The global nuclear energy industry is experiencing an unprecedented revival due to the increasing demand for clean and safe electricity, with the International Atomic Energy Agency raising its nuclear power expansion forecasts for the fifth consecutive year [5]. - The strategic value of nuclear energy is becoming increasingly prominent, especially in the context of global energy transition and geopolitical shifts, with the U.S. government accelerating international commercial cooperation to enhance its energy leadership [5]. Company Summaries - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a joint R&D center for micro-reactor/SMR technology, showcasing significant development potential in the context of rising AI energy demands and energy transition [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device in the primary loop of the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, with its subsidiary Ha Electric's nuclear main pump products leading in the nuclear power business segment [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: The company's filter and cladding systems are key components of the ITER project, indicating its critical role in the nuclear energy supply chain [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing, providing a comprehensive service in the nuclear energy sector [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Has manufactured high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power products, with new fuel transport containers replacing imports [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and nuclear-grade ball valves in new nuclear power projects in China [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record high gold prices [11][12]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are seeing price increases despite weak demand, driven by market speculation and supply constraints [13][14]. - New energy metals, especially lithium, are witnessing significant price increases, although spot trading remains sluggish [19][20]. - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are experiencing price fluctuations, with some prices declining due to weak demand [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data have boosted gold prices to new historical highs, with significant interest in stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan [11][12]. - Silver and platinum prices are also rising, with specific stocks recommended for investment [12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased despite a weak spot market, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts [13][14]. - Aluminum production is increasing in Xinjiang, while demand remains strong due to the automotive sector [17][18]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with significant increases in production and demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19][20][23]. - The report highlights strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks due to their potential in the electric vehicle supply chain [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are fluctuating, with praseodymium and neodymium experiencing a rise followed by a decline, while dysprosium and terbium prices are decreasing [24]. - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks in the rare earth and tungsten sectors for potential investment [24]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 6.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, with significant gains in lithium chemical products [25][28]. - Notable stock performances include Yuyuan Powder Materials and West Materials, with increases of 41.87% and 24.02% respectively [25][35]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the non-ferrous industry is 29.55, indicating relatively low valuations for copper and aluminum sectors [40]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 3.28, suggesting room for growth in aluminum valuations due to supply constraints and increased demand for green metals [42].

Investment Highlights - The report highlights that the internet healthcare sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of over 18%. The primary user demographic consists of young and middle-aged individuals aged 18-45 [2][9][10] - The Chinese government has introduced multiple policies to support the internet healthcare industry, including expanding the scope of online medical consultations and including eligible services in health insurance reimbursement [8][9] - The competitive landscape is characterized by leading companies such as Alibaba Health and Ping An Good Doctor, alongside emerging firms focusing on niche market innovations. Key technological drivers include mobile internet, big data, artificial intelligence, and 5G [2][9][10] Market Trends - The report anticipates continued high-speed growth in the internet healthcare sector, with the market size expected to surpass several hundred billion yuan. User expansion is projected to reach lower-tier cities and rural areas [10] - The integration of advanced technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain is expected to drive the evolution of services towards precision and intelligence [10] - The report identifies challenges such as regulatory compliance, uneven distribution of medical resources, and data security concerns that the industry must address [10][29] Policy Developments - The report discusses the implementation of various supportive policies, including the "Implementation Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment" and the "Health China Action Plan," which encourage the use of AI and big data in healthcare [8][9] - Specific measures from the Shandong provincial government aim to enhance drug and medical device regulation, promoting innovation and international competitiveness in the pharmaceutical industry [22][26] Industry Innovations - The launch of internet hospitals, such as the one by Xining First People's Hospital, aims to improve healthcare access and efficiency, particularly for chronic disease management [21] - Changes in tax policies regarding contraceptive products are expected to drive industry upgrades, pushing low-quality products out of the market while favoring companies focused on research and innovation [27]

Group 1 - The overall allocation strategy emphasizes a focus on Alpha over Beta under high valuation constraints, supported by the current funding structure rather than directional judgments. With market valuations at a high percentile (P≥90%), the cost-effectiveness of relying on valuation expansion for returns has significantly decreased, leading to a preference for structural opportunities and active strategies to achieve excess returns [3][24]. - The current economic cycle is transitioning from the recovery phase to a potential overheating stage, with technology trading remaining a key theme. As the cycle progresses, the value of cyclical allocations is expected to gradually emerge alongside inflation expectations and profit improvements, indicating a shift from broad market recovery to structural differentiation [4]. - The funding environment is favorable, characterized by a "more money, fewer options" scenario that supports structural opportunities. Although short-term speculative money has retreated, uninvested funds are expected to fill the gap, with institutional investors likely to dominate new capital inflows, focusing on low-level acquisitions rather than high-level engagements, providing a supportive backdrop for convertible bonds [5][41]. Group 2 - The recommended strategy involves focusing on high Yield to Maturity (YTM) convertible bonds in a volatile market while also investing in technology-related convertible bonds with upward elasticity, particularly those with strong redemption expectations, to avoid missing opportunities during upward market phases. The overall goal is to achieve a combination of "earning in volatility and not missing out on upward trends" [6][72]. - The report indicates that the convertible bond market is currently at a historical high valuation, suggesting that future performance may be limited. The analysis of different valuation percentiles shows that the likelihood of positive returns decreases as valuations rise, with the highest quartile (Q1) showing only a 50.7% probability of positive returns [10][19][21]. - The report highlights that the public fund's allocation to convertible bonds has increased significantly, while other entities have decreased their holdings. This trend indicates a potential liquidity risk due to the high concentration of holdings by a single entity, suggesting that more liquid convertible bonds may be safer investments [39][41].

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 27 日 日耗环比显著改善，权益逢低配置 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 672 元/吨， 周环比-31 元/吨，内蒙产地价大涨、山西产地价持平、陕西产地价小 涨。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 520.4 万吨，环比-24.1 万吨，年同比-9.8%。本周电厂日耗大涨，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存大跌，截至 12 月 22 日，动力煤库存指数为 211（+0.5）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 91.2%（+0.7pct）和 78.8%（-1.9pct）， 仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 26 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1740 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 26 日，523 家样本矿山精 煤日均产量 74 万吨（-1.8 万吨），年同比-2.6%，523 家精煤库存 282.9 万吨（+10.1 万吨），年同比-23.4%；截止 12 月 26 日，日均铁水产量 226.6 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - Minimax operates across multiple fields with various AI applications generating revenue, including AI social (Talkie/Xingye), multimodal platforms (Hailuo AI), voice platforms (Audio), and Agent (Minimax), supported by an API open platform for full-modal model usage [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive AI model company with applications achieving over 200 million users, with significant user engagement and monetization strategies across its products [4][5]. Summary by Sections AI Social Product: Talkie/Xingye - Talkie/Xingye allows users to chat with AI characters, generating revenue through online marketing services, subscription services, and in-app purchases. The marketing service charges third-party advertising platforms based on performance, while subscription and in-app purchases provide users with interactive value-added services [3]. Video Generation Platform: Hailuo AI - Hailuo AI offers video and image generation features accessible via web and app, utilizing a tiered subscription model ranging from $9.99 to $199.99 per month, with options for direct purchase of recharge credits. It has rapidly grown since its launch in Q3 2024, achieving a monthly active user (MAU) count of 5.648 million within a year [3][4]. Agent Application: MiniMax - MiniMax operates as a ChatBot model available on web and app platforms, designed to handle various long and short-term tasks. It employs a tiered monthly subscription model, charging between $19 and $69 per month, or selling credits directly. The average spending of paid users reached $73 in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5]. Audio Generation: MiniMax Voice - MiniMax Voice provides voice and music generation capabilities, utilizing a credit consumption strategy with a charge of $50 per million credits, alongside monthly subscription plans ranging from $5 to $99. The MAU for MiniMax Voice stands at 494,000, establishing a differentiated advantage in professional scenarios like audiobooks and podcast production [5]. Open Platform - The open platform offers scalable and customizable AI services, including voice, video, music, and image generation, with revenue based on usage. It has served over 100 countries and regions, with the number of paying clients increasing from approximately 400 in 2024 to about 2,500 in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5].

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the home appliance sector, emphasizing the shift in consumer behavior towards a more present-focused consumption mindset, driven by the new generation of consumers [1] - The report highlights the expected leadership of the new consumption sector in 2025, while traditional consumption sectors are anticipated to show lackluster performance [4] Macro Consumption Trends - The report notes a significant transformation in consumer attitudes, moving from a culture of saving to one of cautious spending and living in the moment, which is expected to create new investment opportunities [4][11] - It identifies a structural opportunity in consumption, with the main drivers shifting from broad-based recovery to specific demographic groups, particularly the elderly and single-person households [32] Global Economic Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of global emerging markets, suggesting that Chinese companies are well-positioned to lead in new product categories with significant growth potential [4] - It points out that the export structure is evolving towards innovation-driven categories, enhancing resilience against geopolitical risks [4] Domestic Consumption Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic consumption is entering a phase of refinement, with strong companies benefiting from the changing consumption landscape [4] - It highlights the ongoing growth in the pet economy and health supplements, suggesting that companies with e-commerce capabilities will be favored [4] Export Opportunities - The report discusses the resilience of exports, noting a shift from reliance on developed markets to emerging markets, with significant growth in exports to countries like India and Indonesia [49] - It highlights the importance of diversifying export markets and supporting new business models such as cross-border e-commerce [49] Sector-Specific Insights - The report identifies specific sectors poised for growth, including cleaning appliances, which are expected to benefit from government subsidies and increasing consumer demand [53] - It suggests that the pet economy and health products will continue to thrive, driven by changing consumer preferences and increased awareness [4] Consumer Income and Spending - The report notes that while income growth is stabilizing across different income groups, the spending power of high-income households is expected to drive consumption growth [35] - It emphasizes the importance of asset conditions, particularly housing, in influencing consumer behavior and spending patterns [35] Rural Consumption Potential - The report highlights the growing consumption potential in rural areas, where income growth is outpacing urban areas, suggesting a shift in focus towards rural markets [39] - It notes that rural high-income groups are likely to lead in spending on services, healthcare, and entertainment [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - OCS switches are expected to benefit from the widespread application of large model AI training. The traditional electrical switching network architecture faces high power consumption and bandwidth requirements, making OCS switches, which directly switch optical signals, a viable solution. The global optical circuit switch (OCS) market is projected to grow from $72.78 million in 2020 to $366.47 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 49.80% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to reach $2,022.21 million by 2031, with a CAGR of 17.12% from 2025 to 2031 [2][26]. Summary by Sections OCS Switch Introduction - OCS switches directly switch optical signals without converting to electrical signals, establishing end-to-end optical physical channels. This mechanism allows for seamless support of services from 400G to 1.6T and beyond, ensuring extreme bandwidth and forward compatibility [7]. OCS Market Space - The OCS market is rapidly growing, with North America being the largest consumer market, expected to reach $216.84 million in 2024, accounting for 59.17% of the global market share. China is the fastest-growing market, with a projected CAGR of 97.87% from 2020 to 2024 [26]. OCS Technology Solutions - The MEMS technology solution dominates the market, accounting for over 70% of the OCS market share. Google is the largest producer, having adopted this technology in its data centers since 2022 [3][10]. Other technology solutions include silicon-based liquid crystal and piezoelectric ceramic solutions, each with distinct advantages and challenges [15][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on OCS industry chain stocks, including companies like Saiwei Electronics, Xindong Link, and Jun Guang Technology, among others [4][48].