Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policy measures and mid-year performance expectations are likely to stimulate activity in the construction materials sector, with a focus on the differentiated investment in fiberglass [13][14]. - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing fixed asset investments showed mixed results, with infrastructure maintaining growth while real estate declined significantly [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming mid-year performance disclosures and the potential for increased domestic investment in July due to improved project funding and debt resolution efforts [13][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investments in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing showed year-on-year changes of +5.6%, -10.7%, and +8.5% respectively, indicating a decline in real estate investment [15]. - Key sectors such as electricity, railways, and water conservancy continue to exhibit high levels of activity despite a general slowdown in construction [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a continued decline in prices for photovoltaic glass, with expectations of supply contraction in Q3 2025 due to production adjustments by leading companies [13][22]. - The domestic supply of fiberglass continues to increase, while overseas production capacity is shutting down, leading to tight supply for high-end electronic yarns and fabrics [13][23]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies with high growth potential, including: - Yaxiang Integration (603929 CH) with a target price of 38.40 and a "Buy" rating - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 11.03 and a "Buy" rating - China Nuclear Engineering (601611 CH) with a target price of 10.81 and a "Buy" rating - China Construction International (3311 HK) with a target price of 15.61 and a "Buy" rating - China National Materials (002080 CH) with a target price of 19.60 and a "Buy" rating [11][39]. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the national average price for cement was 361 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.1% [29]. - The average price for float glass was 65 RMB/weight box, down 2.1% week-on-week and 25.9% year-on-year [30][21]. Inventory and Production - The report indicates that as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of float glass in key monitored provinces was approximately 60.52 million weight boxes, with an inventory turnover of about 31.24 days [32]. - The production capacity for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with 459 production lines in operation, maintaining a daily melting capacity of 98,990 tons [33].

Macro Insights - The report indicates a weak export performance, with port container throughput showing a month-on-month decline, suggesting a slowdown in external demand [2][3] - Domestic economic data for May shows a mixed picture, with industrial production slowing and real estate cycles weakening, while consumption growth was boosted by one-off factors [2][3] - The report highlights that some cities are increasing support for the real estate sector, such as Guangzhou's plan to lift purchase restrictions [2] Strategy Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk appetite may not improve, recommending a cautious approach to positions [3] - It notes that high consumer demand is difficult to sustain, with pressures from real estate adjustments and slowing exports becoming more evident [3] - The report emphasizes a focus on large financial sectors and suggests gradual accumulation in sectors with potential for acceleration, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI [3] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the necessity and limitations of interest rate policies, indicating that while there is a need for rate cuts, the space for such actions is limited [9] - It suggests that the bond market is currently biased towards a bullish direction, but with limited room for significant gains [9] - The report recommends focusing on specific opportunities in medium to long-term bonds and high-quality credit bonds [9] Real Estate Insights - The report tracks the implementation of the stock housing storage policy, noting that while there have been some positive developments, the actual scale of implementation remains limited [11] - It highlights that local governments are gaining more autonomy in the acquisition process, which could enhance the effectiveness of the policy [11] - The report anticipates that continued policy optimization could contribute significantly to stabilizing the real estate sector [11] Power Equipment and New Energy Insights - The report states that inverter exports reached 5.97 billion yuan in May, with a month-on-month increase of 2.7%, indicating strong demand from Southeast Asia [13] - It emphasizes that long-term demand for inverters is expected to remain robust due to factors such as rising electricity prices and increased installations of wind and solar power [13] - The report recommends specific companies in the sector, including DeYue Co., GuDeWei, and SunPower, as having strong performance support [13] Company-Specific Insights - The report initiates coverage on YunDa Co. with a target price of 13.05 yuan, highlighting its strong growth potential driven by domestic and overseas wind power projects [16] - It also covers YaXiang Integration, giving it a target price of 38.40 yuan, citing its competitive position in the cleanroom engineering services market [17] - The report highlights Changjiang Infrastructure as a buy with a target price of 64.73 HKD, noting its strong cash flow and consistent dividend growth [18]

证券研究报告 中盐化工 (600328 CH) 新获大型天然碱资源，规模优势巩固 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 化学原料 | 中盐化工于 6 月 19 日发布公告，公司和中石油组成的合资公司以 68 亿元 竞拍获得通辽市奈曼旗大沁他拉地区天然碱采矿权，且中石油将减资退出 合资公司的全部股权。考虑本次竞拍完成以及后续天然碱子公司并表后， 将大幅增加公司的纯碱产能，扩大公司的纯碱生产成本和规模优势，维持 "增持"评级。 公司获得国内大型天然碱采矿权，矿区拥有水资源优势和区位优势 据公司公告，公司和中石油组成的合资公司中石油中盐(内蒙古)碱业（以下 简称"中盐碱业"）以 68 亿元竞拍获得通辽市奈曼旗大沁他拉地区天然碱采 矿权。初步勘测矿区储量包括 14.47 亿吨天然碱矿（含盐量≤9.54%的资源 量为 5.21 亿吨，共伴生天然碱矿物量 9.26 亿吨）。据国家气象局和水利部 相关信息，矿区所在通辽市的年降水量在 350-450mm，区域内西辽河近年 来年径流量 26.7 亿立方米，水资源较丰 ...

证券研究报告 证券 券商扩表的实质与方式选择 证券公司资产负债表扩张，一是作为资本市场中介反映权益、固收、衍生品 等市场扩容；二是在机构化浪潮下反映服务客需能力提升。路径上有三重选 择：1）通过并购重组补齐业务短板、实现地域扩张，如中信收购广州证券 成为首个资产破万亿的券商；2）在监管与市场环境均有利时，通过业务发 展扩张，如 2015 年两融推动行业总资产规模达 6.4 万亿，较 2014 年初提 升 2 倍多；2019 年后机构化浪潮，衍生品业务推动行业总资产在 2023 年 末达 11.8 万亿元，过去 3 年 CAGR 为 13%；3）探索国际扩张、善用境外 杠杆，如境外融资、国际子公司增资后的规模提振。 当下的扩表周期由固收投资驱动、子公司贡献提升 过去 10 年行业总资产 CAGR 12%，当前从周期性扩表迈向韧性扩张，市场 波动不改扩表定力，且以大券商为扩表主力。关注三大特征：1）金融投资 驱动：过去三轮扩表周期中，分别为 06-07 年客户资金、14-15 年两融及股 票质押、19-21 年机构客需驱动，23 年以来在轻资本业务承压+债牛行情下， 主动扩大固收投资规模提振业绩，或带来更强的持续 ...

迈威尔科技 (MRVL US) 28 年数据中心潜在市场空间增至 940 亿美金，维持 20%市场份额目标 公司同步上修其所布局的互连芯片、交换芯片，以及存储相关产品市场空间， 28 年其在数据中心潜在市场空间将增长至 940 亿美金，较 2024 年预计的 750 亿美金上修 26%，其中公司市场竞争优势较为领先的互连芯片市场规 模将达 190 亿美金。公司维持 28 年占据市场 20%份额目标不变，1）公司 在 Serdes、定制 SRAM、定制 HBM、Die-Die 互连等核心 IP 上已形成差异 化优势，显著增强其在定制芯片、数据中心互联芯片等领域的竞争优势；2） 公司已获得 18 个 AI 定制芯片项目（含 5 个 XPU 项目），公司表示已深度 参与大客户 3nm 后的下一代项目合作。 证券研究报告 AI Event：AI 定制芯片前景广阔，上 修数据中心潜在市场空间 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 20 日│美国 | 半导体 | 6/18，Marvell 召开 Custom AI Investor E ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 大促对件量提振效应减弱，价格承压 华泰研究 "以价换量"趋势延续，但开年以来件量增速边际放缓 5 月行业延续"以价换量"，价格降幅较 4 月扩大。据国家邮政局，件量方 面，5 月快递行业件量同比+17.2%，开年以来件量增速持续放缓（1-2 月/3 月/4 月日均同比：+24.5%/+20.3%/+19.1%）。5 月件量增速环比放缓，但电 商 GMV 提速，或因大促以传统电商为主，高客单价商品占比提升，单个包 裹价值量提升，因而单位销售额产生的快递件量下降。价格方面，5 月行业 件均价同比-7.6%，较 4 月降幅（同比-7.0%）扩大，但小于 3 月降幅（-8.2%）， 3 月以来的价格竞争延续。展望 6 月，预计件量受到大促周期拉长影响，据 交通运输部，6 月截至 15 日，全国邮政快递业日均揽收/派送估算同比 +16.2%/+15.0%，增速较 5 月放缓。 顺丰延续"量本利正循环"，圆通量价均衡 2025 年 6 月 20 日│中国内地 行业月报 线上商品销售高景气，但快递行业仍"以价换量" 5 月，商品零售额、电商 GMV、快递件量分别同比+6.5%/+8.2%/+17.2 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

2025年6月19日|中国内地 | 何康, PhD | 李雨婕 | 王伟光 | 孙瀚文 | 方正档 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520080004 | SAC No. S0570525050001 | SAC No. S0570523040001 | SAC No. S0570524040002 | SAC No. S0570524060001 | | SFC No. BRB318 | liyujie@htsc.com | wangweiguang@htsc.com | SFC No. BVB302 | fangzhengtao@htsc.com | | hekang@htsc.com | +(852) 3658 6000 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | sunhanwen@htsc.com | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | +(86) 21 2897 2202 | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 核心观点 证券研究报告 策略 ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环 保关注现金流 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环保关注现金流 5 月全国火电发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降（考虑 1 个月库存）， 考虑煤炭结构差异，我们认为主要火电公司 2Q25 业绩或出现分化；4/5 月 全国水电发电量同比下滑，不同流域存在分化；核电机组稳健运行；1-4 月 装机增长支撑绿电运营商电量同比提升；4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下 滑。展望 3Q25，火电关注电价 vs 煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来水情 况；绿电关注机制电价细则和国补确权进展；燃气关注天然气需求是否改善； 环保公司主要关注现金流、水价调整、绿色和智慧潜能释放空间。 火电：5 月发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降，业绩或出现分化 4 月全国火电发电量同比下滑，5 月由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降。据 国家统计局，2025 年 4/5 月全国火电发电量同比-2.3/+1.2%。考虑 1 个月 库存，2Q25 秦皇岛动力末煤平仓均价 654 元/吨（5500 大卡），同比下降 2 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]