Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [8] Core Insights - Credit demand remains to be boosted, with government bonds continuing to support social financing [2][6] - April social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2][4] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stimulate credit demand and economic recovery [6] Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Financing - In April, new loans added were 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan [3] - The stock of loans grew at a year-on-year rate of 7.2%, a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - Direct financing in April reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with government bond financing contributing significantly [4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 1.5% and 8.0% respectively, showing a slight decline compared to the previous month [5] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan, with a notable drop in both household and non-financial enterprise deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) with a target price of 54.44 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Industrial Bank (601166 CH) with a target price of 25.60 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Bank of Communications (601328 CH) with a target price of 9.63 yuan and an "Overweight" rating [12] - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH) with a target price of 20.02 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Shanghai Bank (601229 CH) with a target price of 11.93 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK) with a target price of 7.55 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs between the US and China is expected to significantly benefit sectors such as energy storage, photovoltaics, and AIDC, leading to profit recovery and valuation restoration [1][6] - The report recommends key companies including CATL, Sungrow, Canadian Solar, Megmeet, and Huaneng Electric [1][6] Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The recent negotiations resulted in a larger-than-expected reduction in tariffs, with the effective tax rates for various segments calculated as follows: 1. Energy storage batteries/systems: 40.9% (expected to rise to 58.4% by 2026) 2. Lithium battery materials: 56%-60.8% 3. Inverters: 57.5% [2] Energy Storage Sector - High tariffs previously led to order cancellations and a slowdown in new orders for energy storage companies. The recent tariff reductions are expected to restore profitability for companies heavily exposed to the US market, with recommendations for Sungrow and CATL [3][6] Photovoltaic Sector - The impact of tariff adjustments on photovoltaic companies is deemed limited, as most domestic companies export through overseas bases. The adjustment is expected to improve market sentiment and support valuation recovery, particularly benefiting Canadian Solar due to its US production capacity [4][6] AIDC Sector - Concerns regarding reduced overseas demand due to high tariffs have diminished. The recent tariff cuts are expected to restore valuations for AIDC-related companies, with recommendations for Megmeet and Huaneng Electric [5][6] Company Recommendations - CATL: Expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected net profit of 66.62 billion CNY in 2025 [13] - Sungrow: Anticipated revenue growth of 7.76% in 2024, with a strong outlook for its energy storage business [13] - Canadian Solar: Despite a projected decline in net profit due to tariffs, its US production capacity is expected to mitigate some impacts [13] - Megmeet: Expected to benefit from its diversified layout and strong demand in data center products [13] - Huaneng Electric: Anticipated growth in its wind and energy storage segments, maintaining a positive outlook [14]

证券研究报告 银行 重视基金改革下银行配置新逻辑 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 14 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们认为公募改革落地有望驱动银行板块估值。证监会最近发布《推动公募 基金高质量发展行动方案》（简称"方案"），显著强化业绩比较基准约束力， 预计未来基金配置或向业绩基准靠拢。25Q1 主动权益深度欠配银行，较沪 深 300 偏离度近 10pct，改革驱动下或有较大增配空间。近期一揽子政策落 地，驱动经济修复，此外，被动基金持续扩容，险资加速入市，增量资金持 续流入可期，有望进一步支撑板块行情。个股推荐：1）25Q1 公募低配的 股份行：如招行 AH、兴业；2）稳健大行仍有配置价值，如农行 AH、交行 AH；3）质优个股，如成都、上海、渝农 AH、重庆 AH。 明确长期导向，强化基准约束 改革明确长周期业绩考核导向，强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，或驱动基金 产品增配此前低配的权重行业。方案提出，建立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动 管理费收取机制，同时强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，避免"风格漂移"等 问题。方案全面强化长周期考核与激励约束机制，在对基金经理的考核方面， 提出构建以 5 年以上长周期业绩为核心的评价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Tariff Expectation Divergence and Correction" - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Type: China Mainland Asset Allocation Weekly Report - Research Institution: Huatai Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks have made substantial progress, with the overall tariff reduction exceeding market expectations. Different markets and assets are correcting their tariff expectations. In the short term, the stabilization of fundamental expectations and the repair of risk appetite drive major asset classes, and there are opportunities for previously oversold varieties to make up for losses. China and other non - US countries are back on the same starting line regarding reciprocal tariffs, and the relative value of Chinese assets may be repaired. In the long run, tariff prospects remain uncertain, and the global order reconstruction may continue. Key long - term themes include de - dollarization, diversified global capital allocation, RMB appreciation, and a decline in global aggregate demand. [2] - The short - term positive impact on the fundamentals is clear, but medium - term uncertainties remain. The risk appetite at home and abroad has recovered and is reflected in prices. Different assets have different implied expectations, which determine the repair space and potential trading opportunities. [3] Market Condition Assessment Domestic - The implementation of double cuts (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts) and the easing of Sino - US tariffs improve the export and economic growth expectations for the second quarter. High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has cooled, while there are positive signals in consumption. The production performance is divided, and prices of some commodities are affected by supply - side factors. [4][46] - In terms of monetary policy, double cuts have been implemented, and a new round of deposit rate cuts is imminent. The central bank has launched a package of monetary policies. In terms of fiscal policy, the direction of loose money is confirmed, and more active fiscal policies are expected, but the urgency of fiscal stimulus has decreased after the tariff easing. [4][47] - Last week, real estate policies continued to boost demand, including lowering personal housing provident fund loan interest rates and introducing measures in Wuhan to support housing purchases. [48] Overseas - US economic data is mixed, and economic uncertainty is rising. After the Sino - US tariff easing, the probability of a US economic recession has decreased. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the inflation effect of tariffs is expected to appear in the next two months. [46] Asset - Specific Analysis Stocks - **A - shares**: The A - share market filled the gap last week but still lags behind some international stock indices. There is still value in domestic equity assets. The market shows structural differentiation, with defensive sectors outperforming in the early stage, and attention should be paid to the repair opportunities of technology - growth sectors and the export chain. [16][20] - **US stocks**: The US stock market may have over - reacted to the tariff shock. The technology - growth sectors are leading the rise in the short term, but the market may face risks such as policy chaos and a decline in corporate earnings in the long term. [22][44] Commodities - Commodities previously showed "recession trading" characteristics. With the improvement of demand expectations, there are trading opportunities for oversold commodities such as crude oil and black - series products. Gold may face short - term headwinds but remains a good hedge against tail risks in the long term. [24][45] Bonds - The global bond market has priced in a pessimistic economic outlook since April. After the tariff easing, bond yields may face upward pressure, but a trend reversal is unlikely. It is recommended to focus on short - term bonds and look for opportunities in long - term bonds during adjustments. [31][44] Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded, while the RMB is strong against the US dollar and may still have room to appreciate against a basket of currencies. [34] Configuration Suggestions - In general, the short - term impact of tariff easing on the market has been largely priced in. Most assets lack clear value - for - money and direction, and new variables are needed. [43] - **Domestic Bond Market**: The bond market may face short - term pressure, but the probability of hitting new lows is low. It is recommended to focus on medium - and short - term bonds with positive carry and look for opportunities to increase long - term bond holdings during adjustments. [43] - **Domestic Stock Market**: The negotiation results boost short - term risk appetite and second - quarter performance expectations, but a sustainable market trend is difficult to form. Focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as pan - technology and domestic substitution, and the export sector may recover. [43] - **US Bonds**: The probability of a US economic recession has decreased, and the odds of 10 - year US bonds have improved. However, they will face inflation and supply pressure in the next quarter. It is recommended to use short - term bonds as the bottom position and conduct long - term bond trading in a band - trading manner. [44] - **US Stocks**: The short - term market is optimistic, but the upward momentum may weaken after the release of tariff - easing benefits. In the long term, the US stock market may face risks such as a decline in corporate earnings. [44] - **Commodities**: Industrial commodities are better than gold in the short term. There are trading opportunities for previously fallen commodities, but the upside space is limited. Gold can hedge against tail risks and should be traded according to the trend. [45] Follow - up Concerns Domestic - China's April social消费品零售总额 year - on - year, April industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, one - year loan prime rate as of May 20, monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities, and the press conference on national economic operation. [61] Overseas - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, April retail sales month - on - month, April PPI, May New York Fed manufacturing index, May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May one - year inflation expectation preliminary value, May University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, and April CPI annual rate final value. [61]

Inflation Data - The U.S. April CPI increased by 0.22% month-on-month, recovering from a -0.05% in March, but still below the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI rose from 0.06% in March to 0.24% in April, also lower than the expected 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year CPI for April was 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%[1] Tariff Impact - The anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet materialized, with prices for high-import items like clothing and furniture showing limited recovery[1] - The average tariff rate remains high at approximately 15-17%, despite recent reductions in U.S.-China tariffs[1] - The effect of tariffs on inflation may become more evident in May and June, particularly as retailers have 5-7 weeks of inventory[1] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on economic activity data, with employment figures in May and June being critical for future interest rate decisions[1] - Research indicates that tariffs implemented in 2018-2019 fully transmitted to consumer prices within two months[1] Core Inflation Components - Core services saw a month-on-month increase from 0.11% in March to 0.29% in April, driven largely by housing[4] - Core goods showed a slight recovery, with a month-on-month increase from -0.09% to 0.06%[4] - Energy prices saw a significant month-on-month increase of 0.67%, while food prices fell to -0.08%[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has made strategic investments in AI chip technology, which aligns with its long-term growth strategy in emerging industries [1][2] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 49.4%, indicating stabilization in its core business operations [1][3] - The company plans to implement a second employee stock ownership plan to enhance long-term development momentum [4] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The company invested 200 million RMB and 50 million RMB in Shanghai Zhenliang Intelligent Technology, acquiring 11.43% and 2.86% equity, respectively [1] - The investment is expected to accelerate the company's development in domestic AI chip sectors, despite limited short-term returns [1][2] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 6.33 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 318.59 million RMB, a decrease of 18.29% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.7 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.0%, reflecting an improvement in operational metrics [3] Employee Incentives - The second phase of the employee stock ownership plan involves 10 executives and 110 employees, with a share price set at 4.58 RMB [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected EPS of 0.33 RMB for 2025 [5] - The target price is set at 7.59 RMB, based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 3.71 RMB [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nintendo with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 14,884.97 JPY, corresponding to a FY27 30x PE [8][18]. Core Views - Nintendo is transitioning into a platform company, leveraging its unique development model that integrates software and hardware to enhance IP value. The upcoming release of Switch 2 is expected to restore revenue and profit growth in the short term, while the establishment of a platform ecosystem will enhance third-party game supply in the medium term. Long-term, the company aims for diversified commercialization strategies to optimize revenue structure and demonstrate resilience across cycles [1][5][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nintendo has a rich history in the gaming industry, known for iconic IPs like Mario and Pokémon. The company has successfully navigated market challenges by focusing on gameplay rather than just high performance and graphics [23][18]. Revenue Structure - In FY25, hardware revenue is projected to be 473.5 billion JPY (41% of total), while software revenue is expected to be 610 billion JPY (52%). The revenue from IP-related activities remains relatively low, indicating significant potential for future growth [18][19]. Platform Strategy - The Switch has redefined the gaming console market by merging home and handheld gaming. The upcoming Switch 2 is anticipated to meet the performance demands of AAA games, with a projected revenue increase of 55% year-on-year in FY26 [3][19]. User Engagement and Profitability - Nintendo has built a robust ecosystem around its first-party games, which are crucial for user acquisition. The company’s online services are expected to enhance user engagement, with digital game sales projected to exceed 50% of total game revenue by FY25 [4][20]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Unlike competitors, Nintendo's strategy emphasizes expanding its user base through innovative gameplay experiences and diverse IP monetization channels, including theme parks and mobile services. This approach has allowed Nintendo to maintain a competitive edge in a crowded market [18][21]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to be 328.8 billion JPY, 577.7 billion JPY, and 684.2 billion JPY, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory supported by the platform model [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for both Electronics and Semiconductors [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that DISCO's 1QFY25 shipment guidance exceeds expectations, with the impact of tariffs still under observation [1]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the demand for generative AI-related equipment, leading to significant increases in logic and packaging shipments [1][2]. - The report anticipates a bifurcation in global semiconductor equipment investment in CY2025, with strong demand and revenue from AI-related sectors, while power semiconductor investments are expected to remain weak [5]. Summary by Sections 1QFY25 Guidance - The company expects a significant increase in shipment volume by 10.3% to JPY 102.0 billion, despite a projected revenue decline of 37.9% to JPY 75 billion due to currency fluctuations [3]. - The anticipated decline in gross margin is attributed to changes in exchange rate assumptions, with a potential drop of at least 4 percentage points to around 65.8% [3]. 4QFY24 Review - In 4QFY24, revenue reached JPY 120.7 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.0% and a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [2]. - The revenue breakdown by business segments shows precision processing equipment contributing 70% of total revenue, with strong performance in HBM and logic/packaging shipments [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report notes that AI continues to drive strong investment in HBM, with expectations of quarterly fluctuations in demand [5]. - Power semiconductor demand is projected to weaken, with a decrease in its contribution to total shipments from 15% in 4QFY24 to 10% in 1QFY25 [5]. Tariff Response and Capital Expenditure - The company anticipates a 52.9% year-on-year decrease in capital expenditure for FY25 to JPY 3.3 billion, primarily due to the completion of expansion projects in FY24 [4]. - The direct impact of tariffs is considered limited, as only 10% of sales are directed towards the U.S., with production based in Japan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meitu, with a target price of 7.49 HKD [11]. Core Viewpoints - AI technology is expected to have a supplementary effect on image life scenarios in the short term, while the long-term competitiveness will rely on vertical data-driven AI model tuning and user understanding [5][14][19]. - The global market for image life scenarios is projected to reach approximately 7 billion USD in 2024, with a low average payment penetration rate of around 4% [21][25]. - Meitu is well-positioned to benefit from user growth and increased subscription penetration driven by AI, leveraging its deep understanding of user needs and experience in high-quality domestic products [6][49]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Meitu, indicating confidence in its market position and growth potential [11]. Market Analysis - The image life scenario market primarily targets social and entertainment needs, with a user base of approximately 4 billion but a low payment penetration rate of 4% [21][25]. - The potential market space for image life scenarios in 2024 is estimated at 7 billion USD, which is significantly less than productivity scenarios [21][25]. AI Impact on the Industry - AI is expected to enhance product capabilities rather than replace existing applications in the short term, with traditional applications maintaining an advantage due to established user habits and data accumulation [5][14][19]. - AI can create new user growth paths and expand subscription opportunities, with successful examples like FaceApp and Meitu demonstrating the effectiveness of AI-driven features in user engagement [3][15][40]. Regional Market Opportunities - The report highlights the differences in subscription model maturity across global markets, with the US and Europe being more established, while Southeast Asia presents significant growth potential due to its large user base and cultural affinity [4][18][62]. - In the US market, the revenue contribution is high, while Southeast Asia has a larger number of active users, making both regions key targets for Meitu's international expansion [62][63]. Competitive Landscape - The report argues against the prevailing market view that AI will disrupt traditional image life applications, asserting that the short-term impact will be more about enhancement than replacement [5][19]. - Meitu's long-standing experience in the beauty application sector positions it favorably to leverage AI advancements for sustained growth and user retention [6][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the energy and power equipment sectors [7] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of the national unified electricity market is driving the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, which are essential for achieving interconnection within the national grid [2][19] - The construction of UHV is not only to meet renewable energy consumption but also to address long-term energy imbalances, with significant demand for long-distance transmission solutions [14][41] - The report anticipates a peak in approvals for UHV projects, with expectations of 5-6 direct current (DC) and 3-4 alternating current (AC) projects approved in 2025, a significant increase from 2024 [3][45] Summary by Sections UHV Project Acceleration - The report predicts that the pace of UHV project approvals will accelerate, with an expected average of 6-7 UHV projects starting annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][3] - The expected annual order volume for UHV projects is projected to reach approximately 46 billion yuan, a 182% increase compared to the average winning bid amount from 2020 to 2024 [3][14] Market Dynamics - The UHV equipment market is characterized by high barriers to entry and concentrated profits, with major equipment components accounting for 80% of the market share [5][15] - Key suppliers such as State Grid NARI, Pinggao Electric, China XD Electric, and XJ Electric are expected to benefit significantly from the upward cycle of the sector [6][15] Back-to-Back Projects - Back-to-back DC transmission projects are crucial for addressing the power interconnection needs of adjacent provinces with asynchronous grids, with 5-6 projects expected to be approved within the year [4][16] - The report highlights that suppliers of converter transformers and converter valves are likely to see significant benefits from these projects [4][16] Financial Projections for Key Companies - State Grid NARI is projected to generate net profits of 1.15-1.64 billion yuan from each conventional/flexible DC UHV project, with an estimated profit elasticity of 1.1-1.6% [6][18] - Pinggao Electric is expected to earn 0.84/1.05 billion yuan from each DC/AC UHV project, with a profit elasticity of 4.2%/5.3% [6][18] - China XD Electric is projected to earn 2.4/1.2 billion yuan from each DC/AC UHV project, with a profit elasticity of 10.1%/5.0% [6][18] - XJ Electric is expected to generate net profits of 0.66-0.99 billion yuan from each conventional/flexible DC UHV project, with a profit elasticity of 3.1-4.7% [6][18]