分析师 [Table_Author] 分析师：王一棠 邮箱：wangyt3@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521080003 证券研究报告|市场分析研究专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 发达市场存在中期压力，新兴市场走势分化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 一、美股市场存在中期下跌的压力。经历今年 4 月 7 日之后的超 跌反弹，现阶段标普 500 已经出现了回调压力，SAR 最近日线已 经进入绿色区间，KDJ 指标开始进入空头排列状态，成交量开始 萎缩，且标普 500 席勒市盈率处于偏高位状态，预计现阶段美股 市场将从 B 浪反弹浪往 C 浪杀跌浪过渡，叠加美国债务问题和特 朗普关税政策的反复以及经济政策的不确定性，美股市场未来整 体来看会有进一步回调。费城半导体指数最近日线反弹到年线附 近受阻，出现了缩量调整态势，SAR 最近日线开始进入绿色区 间，KDJ 指标也进入空头排列状态，以及市盈率近期快速上升， 再叠加关税不确定性可能引发的基本面问题，预计费城半导体指 数还将出现进一步回调。TAMAMA 自今年 4 月 ...

Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank increased liquidity support, with a net injection of CNY 4,600 billion through reverse repos from May 19-23, alongside CNY 2,400 billion in treasury cash deposits and CNY 3,750 billion in MLF operations[1] - The average daily lending scale in the banking system decreased to CNY 30,000 billion from CNY 37,000 billion the previous week, indicating pressure on the liability side of banks[2] - The 1-year Shibor rate fell to a year-to-date low of 1.67% but showed limited downward momentum thereafter, fluctuating between 1.67%-1.68%[2] Market Trends - The overnight rates decreased from 1.6% to a range of 1.4%-1.5% during the week, but increased marginally on May 23 due to special treasury bond issuance and tax payments[1] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.67%, up 2 basis points from the previous week, after two weeks of decline[6] - The net issuance of government bonds decreased to CNY 3,531 billion for the period of May 26-30, down from CNY 4,380 billion the previous week[5] Interbank Market Activity - The central bank's reverse repos maturing from May 26-30 amount to CNY 9,460 billion, indicating significant liquidity management ahead of the month-end[3] - Major banks net sold CNY 169 billion in bills from May 19-22, with cumulative net purchases of CNY 2,418 billion for May[4] - The weighted average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit increased to 6.2 months, reflecting a shift in issuance strategy among banks[6] Risk Factors - Potential liquidity changes may arise from unexpected economic data or adjustments in monetary policy, which could impact market stability[5]

[Table_Title] 全球多数市场将进入进一步调整阶段 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易政策的反复和美国债务 问题，以及全球地缘问题和经济政策的不确定性，预计未来一 段时间全球多数市场将进入调整阶段。本周美股市场出现回 调，周内多个交易日波动偏多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率仍有 32，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈 率为 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.7，仍然临近 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加美股科技股新一轮技 术看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普政策的影响，美股科技股仍然容 易出现回调；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 容易出现进一步回 调；英伟达、微软、脸书、亚马逊等美股巨头由于最近估值上 升较快，预计存在回调消化的空间。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率 为 35.64，仍然明显高于历史平均数和中位数。由于美国经济政 策的不 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 全球多数市场将进入进一步调整阶段 1 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 美股市场一周表现：本周标普 500、纳斯达克指数、道琼斯工业 指数均下跌，跌幅分别为 2.61%、2.47%、2.47%。 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易政策的反复和美国债务 问题，以及全球地缘问题和经济政策的不确定性，预计未来一 段时间全球多数市场将进入调整阶段。本周美股市场出现回 调，周内多个交易日波动偏多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率仍有 32，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈 率为 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.7，仍然临近 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加美股科技股新一轮技 术看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普政策的影响，美股科技股仍然容 易出现回调；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 容易出现进一步回 调；英伟达、微软、脸书、亚马逊等 ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 14.48, with a median of 13.37 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 12.56, while the CSI 300 is at 11.87[8] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 49.41, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Industry Valuation Levels - Non-bank, non-oil sectors show lower PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation, while sectors like computing and steel have higher PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation[21] - The banking sector's PB (LF) is at 0.56, while brokerage firms are at 1.24, indicating a relatively low valuation for banks[24] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.51, with a median of 10.23 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher PE of 21.15, indicating a premium valuation compared to the broader market[62] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 26.06, with a maximum of 41.99, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages[78] - The NASDAQ Index shows an even higher PE of 39.31, reflecting strong growth expectations[86] Comparative Valuation - Key Chinese concept stocks have a median PS of 7.50, with Alibaba at 2.08, indicating a significant disparity in valuations among major players[95] - Chinese banks have a median PB of 0.92, compared to U.S. banks like JPMorgan at 1.32, suggesting a valuation gap between the two markets[97]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tmall and Taobao platforms experienced negative growth in various categories in April 2025, with the highest growth seen in Jin Hong Group [7] - Deckers reported a 16.3% revenue increase to $4.986 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue decreased by 4% to $9.504 billion for FY2025, with a net loss of $190 million, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tmall and Taobao platforms saw negative growth across categories in April 2025, with Jin Hong Group showing the highest growth [7] - Deckers' FY2025 revenue grew by 16.3% to $4.986 billion, with operating profit increasing by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin of 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue fell by 4% to $9.504 billion, with a net loss of $190 million, but the loss was less than the previous year [16] - Amphenol's Q1 2025 revenue was $1.473 billion, with a net profit increase of 2539.22% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline in stock performance, with the SW textile and apparel sector down 1.31% [20] - The cotton price index in China increased by 0.29% as of May 23, 2025, while the medium import cotton price index rose by 1.06% [30] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests short-term recommendations for companies with high U.S. revenue exposure and significant prior declines, while mid-term recommendations focus on companies with high overseas exposure [18][19] - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Zhejiang Natural and Kai Run Co., which have favorable market positions [19]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a defensive stance in asset allocation, with both equity and bond markets showing signs of caution as investors await new information [2][3][4] Domestic Market Performance - On May 22, the domestic market saw a decline across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, and the CSI 300 Index down 0.06% to 3913.87 [1] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 1.2 basis points to 1.67%, while the yield on 30-year bonds fell by 0.1 basis points to 1.92% [2] Asset Class Review - The equity market experienced a slight pullback, particularly in small-cap stocks, while the banking sector showed strength with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.00% [2][6] - The report highlights a rotation in focus towards mid to long-term credit bonds, with yields on various 3-5 year credit products declining by 1-2 basis points [4][6] International Market Dynamics - The report notes volatility in overseas bond markets, particularly in long-term bonds, with yields on 30-year bonds in the UK, US, and Germany reaching highs before retreating [3] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of debt in developed economies are emphasized, particularly in light of fiscal expansion measures in the US and Japan's potential reduction in bond purchases [3] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report suggests that while small-cap stocks are under pressure, there remains a significant trading interest, indicating a potential for rebound strategies [7][9] - Defensive positioning is evident as the implied volatility in the market has increased, with the CSI 300 ETF IV Index rising by 5.01% [7][9] Sector Performance - The report identifies resilience in dividend-paying stocks, with the CSI Dividend Index only down 0.18%, suggesting a defensive allocation strategy among investors [7][9] - The banking sector is highlighted as a strong performer, with a notable increase in interest from funds, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [7][9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both experienced declines, with net inflows into Hong Kong stocks from southbound funds indicating mixed expectations for future performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a net profit increase of over 20 times year-on-year, primarily due to reduced credit impairment losses and lower operating expenses [2][3]. - The company has a strong order reserve, with a total of approximately 383 million yuan in hand orders and bid amounts as of March 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its services into Douyin's local life virtual live streaming and has undertaken multiple global virtual studio projects, enhancing its market position [4]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, marking 14 consecutive years of cash dividends [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, but reported a net loss of 38.53 million yuan [2][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 185 million yuan, a 2.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.60 million yuan, reflecting a 2139.84% growth [2][3]. - The company expects revenues of 800 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 59 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 98 million yuan for the same years [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a net profit increase of 2139.84% year-on-year, driven by reduced credit impairment losses and lower operating expenses [2][3]. - The company has a strong order reserve, with a total of approximately 383 million yuan in hand orders and bid amounts as of March 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its services into Douyin's local life virtual live streaming, leveraging AIGC+XR technology to provide integrated virtual live streaming services [4]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, marking 14 consecutive years of cash dividends [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, but reported a net loss of 38.53 million yuan [2][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 185 million yuan, a 2.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.60 million yuan [2]. - The company expects revenues of 800 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 59 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 98 million yuan [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in inventory management and continues to maintain high dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.02 CNY per share and a special dividend of 0.12 CNY, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [2][5] - The company faced a decline in revenue and net profit due to sales pressure and inventory challenges, leading to a significant promotional effort and adjustments in sales structure [2][4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations, which is expected to offset the decline in offline foot traffic [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and operating cash flow were 270.13 billion CNY, 12.86 billion CNY, and 37.55 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% due to increased promotional activities and adjustments in sales structure [4] Store and Sales Analysis - The number of stores decreased by 18.3% to 5020, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Revenue from the main brand, other brands, joint venture fees, and e-sports was 233.11 billion CNY, 35.05 billion CNY, 1.46 billion CNY, and 0.52 billion CNY, respectively, with declines of 6.1%, 9.9%, 14.1%, and 32.4% year-on-year [3] Digital Transformation and Customer Engagement - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2300 mini-program stores, achieving significant online sales growth [3] - The company has developed an AI tool, "Dolphin AI," which has contributed nearly 100 million CNY in sales and improved content generation efficiency [3] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales strategies are expected to enhance revenue [5] - The company is optimistic about future growth with new partnerships and a focus on digital transformation [5]